Skip to comments.Mitt Romney 10 percent lead in unskewed data from ARG poll
Posted on 09/07/2012 9:00:31 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
The American Research Group (ARG) poll of the race between Mitt Romney and President Obama released today shows a 49 percent to 46 percent lead for the former governor of Massachusetts. The poll of 1200 likely voters, surveyed between September 4-6, has a margin of error of 3 percent. Over-sampling of Democrats by eight percent, the survey sample included 38 percent Democrats, 34 percent Republicans and 28 percent independent voters.
The sampling of the ARG poll differs with the partisan data measured from hundreds of thousands of voters by Rasmussen Reports, which measures the partisan percentages at 37.6 percent Republicans, 33.3 percent Democrats and 29.2 percent independents. This indicates a degree of over-sampling of Democrats by eight percent, a plus four margin for Democrats as opposed to the plus four margin of Republicans among the likely voting electorate.
The ARG survey has Democrats favoring Obama by a 85 percent to 11 percent margin while Republicans surveyed in the poll favor Romney by a 92 percent to five percent margin. ARG found independent voters to support Romney by a 49 percent to 44 percent edge.
If this data is weighted for the appropriate percentage of independents as shown by the Rasmussen data, the survey indicates a far larger and growing lead for Mitt Romney. Analysis of the data by those criteria would lead to a result showing Romney leading with a 53 percent to 43 percent margin over President Obama. That would be a lead of 10 percent, larger than any for Romney reported by any recent national poll...
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DNC Fail was so bad I expect a Romney bounce. lol
The economy sucks, and people know it. The big Zero doesn't have a whole lot of support outside his hardcore leftist base.
That’s what Laura Ingraham said. Bambi’s speech gave a bounce...to R and R!
In the last 2 months, Rasmussen polling shows about an increase of 2.5% for Rs and about 0.5% decrease for Dems along with 1% loss for Independents.
It was an all-clown circus with a freak show in the center ring. I’ve never seen anything quite like it.
Actually received my first phone call tonight from the Romney campaign asking for a contribution of 100 dollars. I told the lady on the phone that since Im unemployed I could not afford to give that kind of money but that my vote is more precious than any amount of money, she agreed :-) The fact that they are calling supporters in CA of all places is a very good sign. Dont believe the Gallop polls or other leftist polls Romney is doing very well
I was soooooooo sick and fed up with every speech being hailed as the turning point in which Obama was going to beat Romney for good.
Someone on FNC tonight actually admitted that the thrust of the convention was to solidify the base. Now wait a minute...less than four years after the Immaculation they are worried about losing their base?? That says they don’t have a chance of attracting the center and undecideds. And after this past week, the one the base wants to support most is non-candidate Bill Clinton.
Obama is only leading by 7% in NEW JERSEY!!
It felt like Bush I's speech for reelection (Or Carter's).
I actually wondered if slacker Obama didn’t just say screw it, I’m not really up for this, I want to move to my new mansion in Hawaii in January - so I’ll just give my 2008 speech and let it go at that.
This guy was right and his spread sheet matched mine. This is from a post earlier today in another thread on the ARG poll:
Well this survey corresponds pretty with the economic projection from the Univ of Colorado.
They are projecting a D+4 turnout, less than the +7 in 2008. However in 2010 the turnout was even between the rs and Ds. It that turnout model holds with the splits in this poll, assuming the 30% ind turnout from 2010, the race is
In this scenario ~4.5% undecided, if we assume 1.5% third party (consistent with other elections, that leaves 3% going to Romney & Obama assume a 2-1 split to the challenger (little lower than historical results), we end up at 53-46% Romney.
This tracks very closely to the results from the economic model.
If we plug in the +4 R-D split favoring Rs from Rasmussen the numbers become a huge blowout 54.8-43.9, seems almost too good to be true OTOH there are 23M unemployed and 89M of working age who dont have a job.
If NJ could be in play, this could be a landslide
Obama is only leading by 7% in NEW JERSEY!!
Good pickup, Quinnipiac usually leans left also. Hard to see Romney winning although i have seen a lot of Obama ads (I have directtv for NFL ticket) not sure if they are national buys or local.
Even though I dont expect Romney to win New Jersey, if he does I will bust out laughing so hard, this will be a landslide of historic proportions for sure
Typically you see headlines saying how many millions of people watched the acceptance speech. I didn’t see any of those on Friday. Did I miss something, or is there a reason those numbers aren’t making their way to the surface?
Honey Boo Boo?
Got to leave in there a margin for Democrat voter fraud in case the Democrats want to cheat instead of actually winning on their own merits.
Remember how in 2008 Obama was saying he was going to win all 50 states? The campaign was making efforts even in Alaska.
And now they’re consistently saying the race is going to be very, very tight and come down the wire.
In 2008 we clung to the hopes of a rumored poll showing Obama up by only 3 in MI. Now there are polls everywhere showing just that result and people (I’m looking at you, Nate Silver) are still acting like Obama is going to win by 300000%.
You can extrapolate from there...
overnight ratings, before adjustments
DNC was only on NBC at 9PM EST (the others waited till 10pm) and it came in second behind Big Brother on CBS. lol
good post, thanks
Yes, except it’s double counting to count how much Democrats are oversampled PLUS how much Republicans are undersampled. That’s really a four point swing.
There was talk earlier of Oregon and Maine maybe becoming toss-ups.
That sounds like a joke. The Soviet Socialist Republic of Oregon would never allow it, those mail ballots will have to be sifted.
Thanks and I am not suprised by this result. My parents saw 2016 today and called me up telling what a packed house they had. People know what must be done to this Manchurian Candidate.
Wow. Big Brother was a bigger draw than Big Sis / NannyState.
Looks like approximately 22 million?
Just a little more than the crowd that watched Paul Ryan, which was just over half the number who had watched Sarah Palin?
I’ll let someone else do the math, lol
I don’t see how Romney loses if he’s ahead with independents, assuming no fixing, etc. and of course this prediction would refer to the popular vote, not the electoral college.
Now, 4 pts is margin of error, or nearly, so according to this particular poll he could still lose.
But I don’t think anyone can win by just winning their base, they have to win the mushy-middlers to gain victory.
Last days of a failed regime.
“His speech was lack of heart that it’s almost as if Obama has given up...”
Yes, that’s pretty much what it sounded like when we heard the end of it.
And that’s pretty much how Jim Geraghty put it over at NRO: Obama has said all he has to say, he’s just out of ideas.
The guy really has a lot of nerve though, 4 years ago he was going to still the oceans, heal the sick and employ the idle, now he says: gee being president is hard....I need more time.
As the Rolling Stones sang: you’re obsolete my baby.....baby, baby, oh baby you’re out of time!
As a conservative northern Californian, I hope you’re right!! And, I love your name. ;)
That DNC Klan meeting in Charlotte was hard to ignore.
you say: “Dont believe the Gallop polls or other leftist polls Romney is doing very well.”
Gallop was showing Romney a good lead a while back - they got a Chi-Town call, veiled threat, from the AX man himself, Axelrod.
When that didn’t bring them in line - as the others seem to have been, Holder SUED them!
So no, don’t worry about the regular pollsters. Beleive what YOU hear and see...
Wow. So the message to Romney is he can govern as leftwing as he wants.
“People know what must be done to this Manchurian Candidate.”
That is what I think too.
I live in the non-swing state of NJ, but there are solid republican areas here, I live in one of those and I work in the total Dem hive of Hudson County.
Obviously every day I drive from one location to the other (uphill, both ways!)
This year I have seen almost NO bumper stickers at all. I have seen a few for Obama (some are leftovers, some you can’t tell, some are definitely new) and NONE for Romney. (I’m going to buy a magnet for him, hubby says: no bumper stickers!)
But I can tell you for a fact that when I moved to this heavily republican area 4 years ago, at just this same time of year, there were TONS of McCain/Palin stickers and signs. To me it was like we had moved to heaven, I’ll always remember it.
This year, nothing.
But....nothing for the other side either.
Now, I suppose this could betoken a completely turned off electorate, that could very well be true. But, nevertheless millions of people are going to vote in November.
I think the public has to a large extent made their decisions. The unmoving polls show that. And I don’t expect the polls to change much, although R/R could take a tad of a lead.
I HAVE to think they are going to win. I’m worried about it ALL THE TIME, but I cannot believe Obama will be re-elected. He has done NOTHING to deserve it.
So, I think people are just already decided, it’s going to come down to turn out (our side WILL turn out) and which way the independents go (and I hope they’ll go our way).
Thanks! I was actually surprised that the Romney campaign would call me since Im in SoCal and Obama has this state in the bag but she said that he was contacting everyone for one final push to get as many donations as possible
Jersey is hopeless.
I have gotten the feeling that since Romney picked Ryan and did the beautiful political Judo move by going after Medicare by pointing out Obama already raided it for Obamacare....the game was on.
That week told me Romney was not like McCain, he was going to slug it out.
Leading up to the RNC Convention, the Dems seemed to have severe difficulty defending Obamacare’s raid on Medicare. IMHO the only thing that saved the Dems before the Tampa convention was some idiot in the Mid West opening his trap about rape and abortion.
The RNC Convention was very good IMHO - I liked the tone. They were not over the top RED MEAT. The Conservative Base is, if not behind Romney 100%, they are at least against Obama 100%. They were talking to the middle, they were talking to the Reagan Democrats that still lurk out there. They didn’t bash them over the head with “Are you stupid or something? Why did you vote for Obama 4 years ago?”. They instead used a air of disappointment in his performance. Paul Ryan’s line about living in your parents house out of college and out of a job looking at a faded Obama poster. That line hit home.
Tampa showed good diversity, not that the MSM would show it.
But mostly it was one Governor after the other showing America that again and again they tacked high debts, and all without raising taxes.
Romney speech was good - wasn’t great. It didn’t need to be. We know the mistakes from electing a person just because they can read from a teleprompter. The only Romney bio tidbit they left out was him donating his inheritance to charity. The left still portrays him as a person with a silver spoon in his mouth.
Bottom line - all Romney had to do at the RNC Convention was to appear as a viable candidate. That’s it. The best RED MEAT of the whole convention was done my Clint Eastwood. I guess I watch too much AMC with my father. But I saw the Jimmy Stewart bit for what it was for. I saw a interview of Clint about a week before, he was promoting his new film, the guy is a sharp as a tack.
Nobody knew that in a few days #EmptyChairDay would be all over the place.
I think pendulum has moved. The final factor will be the 1st debate, the topic is the Economy. If Romney wins, it will be a Reagan landslide, if he draws even, he still wins. I cant imagine Romney losing a debate on the economy....
I’m in L.A. and a young guy (who said he was a college student on a Ramen noodles diet) called me tonight, too, soliciting donations for Romney. Told him I could not afford to contribute (retired on fixed income) but will support Romney. Also told him that I lived on a noodles diet right out of college during the Jimmy Carter years.
And that’s what the model from the Colorado profs has predicted....53 47 Mitt with 320EV
BWAHAHAAHAHA ... evil genius
A young woman called me(She wasn’t in LA that’s for sure she asked me what the weather was like here, I told her hot of course) she said she is calling everyone asking for 100 dollar donations, when I told her that I am one of the millions who are currently unemployed she said that she just got hired as a receptionist, I congratulated her and she asked me if I could give a 35 dollar donation. I told her that money is tight but that a vote is much more precious than any amount of money. She sounded upbeat, I even suggested that they have an Ad showing the DNC delegates booing God and Israel, told her it would make a great Ad, she said they are working on it