Skip to comments.Mitt Romney's swing-state ad spend looks like a loser's strategy
Posted on 09/09/2012 12:42:46 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
After a week when the American media gave saturation coverage to the Democratic national convention, Mitt Romney has responded by buying his own air time. His latest television ad buys, totalling $4.5m, is targeted at the states of Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia. No one can fault Romney for going on the air in these states. They are all winnable for either candidate, and they were won by George W Bush at least once.
The issue is that Romney is leaving himself with little room for error. If you assign the states to the candidate who is leading in the polls outside the ad states, you get a map that looks like this.
(GRAPHIC AT LINK)
By that map, President Obama holds a clear advantage with 247 electoral votes to Mitt Romney's 191. Obama has 18 ways to reach 270 electoral votes, while Romney can name only 11 winning combinations. The arithmetic also dictates that Romney must win the state of Florida. If he doesn't, Obama has won a second term.
If we assign Nevada, where Romney hasn't led in a poll since April 2011, to President Obama, the math becomes even less forgiving for the Republican nominee. Now, Romney must win both Florida and Ohio. And that leaves Romney with only five ways to thread the needle.
Such a game-plan is nothing new in presidential campaigns. Michael_Dukakis tried the "18-state strategy" in 1988. Dukakis, of course, didn't come close, and lost 40 states. John_Kerry's swing-state effort in 2004 is another analogue. Kerry needed to win two of the three upper midwest states (Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin), plus Pennsylvania and either Florida or Ohio. Kerry managed parts one and two, to get to 252 electoral votes, but failed to take either Florida or Ohio...
(Excerpt) Read more at guardian.co.uk ...
Dukakis, of course, didn’t come close, and lost 40 states.
Obama is no Dukakis. ...he makes Dukakis look good!
gas prices, lies about unemployment
(and manipulation of birth / death adjustments),
will be clear to enough people by November,
that Obama will lose worse than Dukakis.
in EVERY demographic, Obama is already doing worse,
than 2008. ...it won’t even be close.
Exactly, by my count Obama has at most 201 EVs he can be confident in and Romney has at least 206 EVs he can be confident in.
I certainly do not have NC in the toss up category, but do have Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania in the toss up category. Of course the author suggest they may be toss, but wonders why no Romney buy in those states.
My view is that this reported $4.5 million buy is likely a long planned buy with buys in other states coming.
The only reason the Guardian would post this article is because they’re scared that Romney will win.
His map, however, shows Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin already in the blue column, accounting for the estimate of electoral votes he’s assigning to Mr. Obama. Take a look.
Michigan is lost (GM talking point) and PA was never in the cards and hasn't been since '88.
It doesn't matter if Romney only has 11 ways to win vs. Obama's 18. On Nov 6, Romney just needs ONE.
Pennsylvania elected a Republican governor in 2010 by a margin of 8.8% and a Republican senator in 2010 by a margin of 2.0%.
How does O-Bah-Mah have a lock on Pennsylvania?
LOL... all I had to do was look at the source. If the Guardian thinks it’s a bad idea, Mitt’s probably on the right track.
Taking the advice of a Liberal rag is probably not very high on Mitt’s list of things to do.
I won’t even bother reading this.
5 Words: "Phil A Del Phi A"
I did see that map when I read the article. I was quite surprised by the map given the tone in the article. Weren’t you?
I think you mean “West Camden”.
The Guardian makes MSNBC, Newsweek and the New York Times all look like the John Birch Society.
Yeah, it sounds like the old bowling joke, "We lost all three games, but took total pins."
2010 wasn't a presidential election year and the Philadelphia machine was not in full swing.
Jun 04, 2012 at 7:01 PM PDT
Wisconsin recall prediction: Walker will lose
Based on projected voter turnout, Barretts fiery debate performance and former President Bill Clintons recent visit to Wisconsin
I beg Californian conservatives to spend one weekend in Nevada — either Reno or Las Vegas — and help knock on doors & talk fiscal conservatism.
The Dems are already out in full force. I get a knock on the door once per week, and it always someone with California plates.
That’d be a good idea for any conservative in a red state or blue state that borders a swing state. Utahns coming from the other direction into Nevada, or into Colorado. Minnesotans going into Iowa or Wisconsin, or Indianans into Ohio, perhaps, things like that. Should try to set some system up on the Interwebs for that...
That’s because Romney’s not advertising in any of those three states.
Sigh. Romnet IS doing buys in WI and MI as per WaPo. This is the FIRST WAVE and Romney is awash in cash. If I read the start, it is to begin by locking down the likely states, THEN spend on true swing state lik n, WI, PA, and MI. Ras has now had Romney up in his swing state poll, which covers the first batch, for 2 weeks in a row, even after the Dem convention.
I still think PA is a long shot, but it got closerthis year.
But this is the first year that PA has a photo ID law for voting. That should make a difference in the Phila. tally.
Not yet. According to WaPo, he is planning to in second wave.
My understanding was that there were legal reasons he had to wait until after the R convention to access much of his money pot. Waiting until all the noise from the D convention subsided, and not giving the Dems the ability to attack his ad campaign from their convention floor, would seem to make good sense. Along with the conventional wisdom that “most people don’t pay attention to the Presidential race until after Labor Day,” and you have a number of good reasons for the campaign to not start the big advertizing push until about now.
Yeah, I wonder what site on the interwebs where I can find conservatives in California to come help us out in Nevada... Hmm.... ;)
If they can’t do it for Romney, they should at least come out to help Heller with his Senate race. Just talk conservatism. Get people to stop Obama via voting him out and/or electing a conservative US Senator. Whichever they are more comfortable with.
I think they’re hitting the states with the earliest early voting first, but that does seem to be what the article is going by.
Hate to say it but Romney will lose bigtime . Another fall guy a la McPain . Worst POTUS in history and he is still behind in the polls . Then you have voter fraud which adds another 2-3% to Obama . Mitt running a milquetoast campaign thus far . Doesn’t look good .
It’s a loser’s strategy because the is NO way to defeat 0bama. At first I though Romney would win, but then I looked at the state of the nation and believe no one can defeat 0bama and believe another Republican will NEVER be elected again. Even Ronald Reagan would lose to 0bama today. There are several reasons why.
1) This no where near the same country it was 1980. Patriotism is no existent. More and more Americans hate their country and agree with 0bama apologetic attitude. Education has been decline for 40 years and alot of dumbed down people now vote.
2) Image/Celebrity. Modern media has changes Americans outlook. The issues don’t matter (economy, gas prices, etc). What does matter is image. 0bamam is the American Idol President. Job approval does not matter. Favorability/Popularity does matter and 0bama is still overwhelmingly popular. People like his cool, fist bumping, hip hop image. They love his wife and her carefully structured appearances on Leno, Letterman and ICarly. To America, this a cool couple to have in the White House. Mitt and Ann Romney are just too square and too white to win people over.
3) Minorities. They dominate the electoral landscape. Blacks and Latino’s hate Republicans. A vast majority of them either promote a criminal lifestyle or demand free food and housing. 0bama promises this to them and plus the see him as one of them.
Mark my words, although in a sane world 0bama should lose in a landslide, the opposite will happen. He will win in a landslide. I do think Romney will do two states better than McCain (picking up NC and IN) but everything else 0bama won in 2008 will go for 0bama again, by a bigger margin. Even if Romney outdoes 0bama in the debates, it doesn’t matter. The articles and post debates scripts are already written and they all say 0bama won the debate and that is how people will make up their minds,
I think now 0bama will win 56% -59% of the popular vote.
Any talk of a Romney win is whistling past the graveyard.
I respectfully disagree.
On one condition: The GOP must stop whining and get out in force for Romney.
If we do, we win. If we do not we lose.
It’s that simple.
The Democrats took Wisconsin by about half a percentage point in 2000 and 2004. With Ryan on the ticket the odds of Romney taking it go up significantly. If the Republicans take Wisconsin and Virginia then they don’t need Ohio.
RCP has MI and WI in the toss up catagory. Basically, if Obama and Romney hold all their “leaning” states, then Romney needs to win FL, NC, VA and OH, plus any other toss up state to get to 270.
Romney is a numbers guy and he’s also a cheap SOB and a business consultant. There is no way they will authorize the spending of valuable resources in a place where the data says it will not have an effect. Even if that effect is to force Obama to spend his dwindling resources defending what they though was a safe state instead of a true swing state, it’s a winner.
Right. They were prohibited from spending certain money before a certain time.
2010 was not a presidential election year. Republicans running statewide in Pennsylvania do better in off-year elections. What that suggests to me is that when the Dems crank up the Philadelphia vote-fraud machine, they can 'steal' and election that is within a point -- maybe 2 points.
By your count ignores realities. 1st thing is advertising has been pulled in MI and PA. Like with everything follow the money. WI has had some small superpac buys but nothing from Romney yet.
The democrats bounce out of the convention is huge. Nate Siler (yes I know he is liberal) who nailed 08 and 10 elections has Romney with a 20% chance only as of today. Stories have leaked from the Romney campaign today internal trackings show a high single digit lead for Obama in Ohio which would all but finish Romney.
I have been posting all summer how the Romney campaign should be prosecuted for political malpractice. The democrats have been doing all the messaging. The economy still poor and you can’t move the needle at all? Between taxes, Bain, and women’s issues Romney has been responding ( and not very well) all summer.
We get to the conventions and if it was not obvious before it was certainly obvious in Tampa, WE DO NOT LIKE ROMNEY. There was no enthusiasm for this horrible candidate that was picked by the party elders.
We of course make jokes but the democrats love Obama. There convention was enthusiastic and very well managed with every speaker and issue framed as they wanted. Look I like Christie but his speech was about him not electing Romney.
The convention bounce will end up being 5-7 points. With those numbers we are in 08 territory. I will work for local and state candidates. In my opinion Romney is done. The race was lost in the summer.
That's one way of looking at it. I agree that it is frustrating to watch. But the 'professionals' that run campaigns will tell you that the challenger to a sitting president must position himself as an "acceptable alternative" to the incumbent. IOW's in any re-election bid the first step in the public's 2-Step decision is asking the question, "Does the president deserve re-election?" So Romney is focusing his resources on making himself look like "Mr. Fixit" for the economy, thereby making himself appear the acceptable alternative.
Romney has a huge war-chest he’s only now allowed to use.
Lighten up. And support our guy.
Not to mention his (fabulous) VP candidate. :D
IMHO I think Romneys going in totally on only the Economy and Ignoring such Issues as Fast and Furious is a Losing Strategy.
You are dealing with the most Radical America Hating Individuals this country has ever seen,they Have NO shame or Scruples,and as the old adage goes, Figures dont lie but Liars sure can figure. Obama and his Cohorts such as Bill Clinton,now going on the Campaign Trail for the Liar in Chief,will twist every statement and figure to their advantage. Add to that the fact,like it or not,the MORONS in this country love the Impeached,perjuring Womanizer and accused Rapist,as well as The Kenyan More than Romney,so couple all that with an Adoring Media covering your lies and either doubling down on them or just ignoring rebuttles and you are going to Lose.
The least Romney could have tried to make Obama explain how thousands of automatic Weapons were shipped From American Gun Shops across the Border to the Most Barbaric Drug Cartels, where they ended up being used to Slaughter Mexicans as well as American Border agents.
How does Obama get away with his Attorney General ,whose agencies he Runs, were in Charge of this and he is Held in Contempt of Congress and as Yet has Not turned over the Papers Congress has Requested?
Holder has said he found out about this by seeing it on the News or reading about it in the Newspaper,and Obama did not know anything about it? At Least FORCE him in front of the American People offer LAME excuses!
Let me Answer my own question, He gets away with it because we are either being played for Suckers and The fix is in for Obama to win,Romney does not want to win,or he just does not want to admit to himself who these Radicals are that he is running against.
Myself I dont think he is that dumb,he is just Afraid to do what must be done, to expose Obama as the Radical America hating Individual he is. Never the less,either reason spells defeat for the entire Country and a Horrible Future.
So, to figure out what that means you need the best possible polling state by state to see what's really happening to the demographic voting ~ you actually can't go backwards from demographics at the national scale and predict individual state votes.
There are some other mistakes in this analysis but I'm surprised Romney has 11 different ways to get up to the required number of electoral votes ~ I suspect he has only 1 way to do that, and his support team has assumed he will pull all heavily Mormon areas ~ Idaho, Utah and Nevada ~
You have to remember that on DAY 1.
That was forgotten this year which means you have people still bleating and crying for Republicans to get behind "the" candidate as if they have some obligation.
You can't run a primary series and leave behind a majority of your base in a dissatisfied emotional state ~ even if you win you will NOT enjoy your time in office.
The Guardian is a Leftist mouthpiece from London. No doubt, their Halloween edition will inform Americans that the election is over and Obama is the winner so there is no need to hold the election on Nov. 6.
The Guardian is a leftist UK paper — I am sure they are so rooting for Romney... (/sarc)
Nate Silver is one of the JOURNO Listers. And he has been working overtime the past 48 hours to spew out all sorts of stuff that Romney trailing in the national polls by 2-3 points means the race is over.
I realize Nate is hard pill to swallow since he’s generally been right on polls. But at the moment people need to tune him out. He’s like Toyko Rose of late, sending out broadcasts that conservatives don’t need to bother to vote this year since supreme commander Obama will mow us all down.
I’m not going to confidently predict that Romney will win. But he’s not a charismatic candidate that people are flocking to like they did the messiah in 2008, thus he isnt going to be showing tons of polling strength. Nonetheless, come November 6, there are going to be millions and millions of us marching to those voting boths and casting a ballot for him.
The Nate Silver’s of the world don’t quite understand the depth of frustration with Obama out here in fly over country. I think they will in 60 days.
I believe that Romney is going to win states that the Dems thought was theirs, such as Minnesota and New Mexico. Say what you want about Romney but I believe he is running an effective campaign, unlike obama.
Silver could be right. But he could be entirely wrong as were all pollsters in 1994 except Zogby, and all most pollsters in 2004 except Ras. It's the old consensus thing: a consensus doesn't mean you're right. It may mean that you and others are in agreement, but you're wrong.
That said, I don't like the new Romney ads. They are specific and well targeted, but I don't think they hit Obama hard enough. However, I do think the Superpacs will take care of that, and Romney's strategy is to continue the "nice guy but failed leader" approach.
Folks, we have to admit that since Romney BY ALL POLLS is killing it with indies, this part of the strategy is working.
This is why I think Silver is really, really wrong: ALL the internals of almost every poll show a) higher support by GOP than Dems for their candidate; b) a 7-15 point lead for Romney among indies; c) a significant lead for Romney among men; and d) a virtual tie among women. Now, as Chris Rock once said, "Dat ain't right." Something is off here.
“Lighten up. And support our guy.”
Your Little RINO is not “our guy”.
Big difference between facts and opinions.
Just saying. We will see.
In 2010, PA also had about 8 congressional seats that switched from Dem to GOP. I’d call that pretty much a GOP sweep. Bush only lost PA by 4 points in 2004.
It’s hard for the conservstive T in PA to overcome the Philly/Pittsburgh liberal metro areas, if the urban areas come out in force. One factor in Romney’s favor is that the affluent suburbs in those metro areas may not be so enthusiastic about Obama this time and polls are showing that the urban voters are not as juiced about Obama as before.
So it could be close. Romney definitely needs to make Obama spend money in PA.
You’ll know PA is in play if Obama abandons the warm fuzzy ads he’s been running in that state, for the racist scare tactic James Byrd ones. That will be a desperation move that may turn off suburban voters, but if he sees it slipping away, it’s his Hail Mary.
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