Skip to comments.Mitt Romney's swing-state ad spend looks like a loser's strategy
Posted on 09/09/2012 12:42:46 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
After a week when the American media gave saturation coverage to the Democratic national convention, Mitt Romney has responded by buying his own air time. His latest television ad buys, totalling $4.5m, is targeted at the states of Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia. No one can fault Romney for going on the air in these states. They are all winnable for either candidate, and they were won by George W Bush at least once.
The issue is that Romney is leaving himself with little room for error. If you assign the states to the candidate who is leading in the polls outside the ad states, you get a map that looks like this.
(GRAPHIC AT LINK)
By that map, President Obama holds a clear advantage with 247 electoral votes to Mitt Romney's 191. Obama has 18 ways to reach 270 electoral votes, while Romney can name only 11 winning combinations. The arithmetic also dictates that Romney must win the state of Florida. If he doesn't, Obama has won a second term.
If we assign Nevada, where Romney hasn't led in a poll since April 2011, to President Obama, the math becomes even less forgiving for the Republican nominee. Now, Romney must win both Florida and Ohio. And that leaves Romney with only five ways to thread the needle.
Such a game-plan is nothing new in presidential campaigns. Michael_Dukakis tried the "18-state strategy" in 1988. Dukakis, of course, didn't come close, and lost 40 states. John_Kerry's swing-state effort in 2004 is another analogue. Kerry needed to win two of the three upper midwest states (Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin), plus Pennsylvania and either Florida or Ohio. Kerry managed parts one and two, to get to 252 electoral votes, but failed to take either Florida or Ohio...
(Excerpt) Read more at guardian.co.uk ...
Dukakis, of course, didn’t come close, and lost 40 states.
Obama is no Dukakis. ...he makes Dukakis look good!
gas prices, lies about unemployment
(and manipulation of birth / death adjustments),
will be clear to enough people by November,
that Obama will lose worse than Dukakis.
in EVERY demographic, Obama is already doing worse,
than 2008. ...it won’t even be close.
Exactly, by my count Obama has at most 201 EVs he can be confident in and Romney has at least 206 EVs he can be confident in.
I certainly do not have NC in the toss up category, but do have Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania in the toss up category. Of course the author suggest they may be toss, but wonders why no Romney buy in those states.
My view is that this reported $4.5 million buy is likely a long planned buy with buys in other states coming.
The only reason the Guardian would post this article is because they’re scared that Romney will win.
His map, however, shows Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin already in the blue column, accounting for the estimate of electoral votes he’s assigning to Mr. Obama. Take a look.
Michigan is lost (GM talking point) and PA was never in the cards and hasn't been since '88.
It doesn't matter if Romney only has 11 ways to win vs. Obama's 18. On Nov 6, Romney just needs ONE.
Pennsylvania elected a Republican governor in 2010 by a margin of 8.8% and a Republican senator in 2010 by a margin of 2.0%.
How does O-Bah-Mah have a lock on Pennsylvania?
LOL... all I had to do was look at the source. If the Guardian thinks it’s a bad idea, Mitt’s probably on the right track.
Taking the advice of a Liberal rag is probably not very high on Mitt’s list of things to do.
I won’t even bother reading this.
5 Words: "Phil A Del Phi A"
I did see that map when I read the article. I was quite surprised by the map given the tone in the article. Weren’t you?
I think you mean “West Camden”.
The Guardian makes MSNBC, Newsweek and the New York Times all look like the John Birch Society.
Yeah, it sounds like the old bowling joke, "We lost all three games, but took total pins."
2010 wasn't a presidential election year and the Philadelphia machine was not in full swing.
Jun 04, 2012 at 7:01 PM PDT
Wisconsin recall prediction: Walker will lose
Based on projected voter turnout, Barretts fiery debate performance and former President Bill Clintons recent visit to Wisconsin
That’d be a good idea for any conservative in a red state or blue state that borders a swing state. Utahns coming from the other direction into Nevada, or into Colorado. Minnesotans going into Iowa or Wisconsin, or Indianans into Ohio, perhaps, things like that. Should try to set some system up on the Interwebs for that...
That’s because Romney’s not advertising in any of those three states.
Sigh. Romnet IS doing buys in WI and MI as per WaPo. This is the FIRST WAVE and Romney is awash in cash. If I read the start, it is to begin by locking down the likely states, THEN spend on true swing state lik n, WI, PA, and MI. Ras has now had Romney up in his swing state poll, which covers the first batch, for 2 weeks in a row, even after the Dem convention.
I still think PA is a long shot, but it got closerthis year.