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If The Election Were Held Today Barack Obama Would Win
RedState ^ | September 17th, 2012 | Erick Erickson

Posted on 09/17/2012 5:44:26 AM PDT by granada

Contra Dick Morris, Mitt Romney is not winning this election. At least Mitt Romney is not winning the election right now. Conservatives are obsessing over every poll, the turn out models used, and the media bias that is on ful display. Yes, some of the polling models seem screwy, though we all forget the pollsters apply a secret sauce known only to them on top. Yes, reporters are fully beclowning themselves to get their god-king re-elected. But while we may be focused there, the fact is the Romney campaign isn’t functioning well. Lucky for you and me the election is not today. But something needs to happen in Boston and I am less and less hopeful anything will happen.

It would be easy to dismiss me by saying I never cared for Romney or I’m somehow actually rooting against him. So let me put it to you this way: Jenn Rubin and I are on the same page. That’s either a sign of the apocalypse or there is something really dysfunctional happening within the Romney campaign.

(Excerpt) Read more at redstate.com ...


TOPICS: Campaign News; Parties; Polls
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; conservatives; gop; pantwetting; polls
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Obama is poised to win?
1 posted on 09/17/2012 5:44:38 AM PDT by granada
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To: granada

“If The Election Were Held Today Barack Obama Would Win”

Don’t give him any ideas!!!


2 posted on 09/17/2012 5:46:35 AM PDT by SMARTY ("The man who has no inner-life is a slave to his surroundings. "Henri Frederic Amiel)
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To: granada

It wasn’t “Boston” that got Romney elected. Just like every blue state the cities are the reason. Worcester, Framingham etc got him in.


3 posted on 09/17/2012 5:47:34 AM PDT by albie
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To: granada

We still have the debates.


4 posted on 09/17/2012 5:50:27 AM PDT by ILS21R (The time is nigh.)
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To: granada

Just another propaganda saturation concept, keep at it 24/7 forecasting an upcoming hurricane that eventually the people will start heading to the store to clear out stock.


5 posted on 09/17/2012 5:52:48 AM PDT by Eye of Unk (OPSEC)
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To: granada

I live in a reliable red state so haven’t seen many ads. Really the only one I’ve seen regularly is the Obama ad with Clinton pimping him and it is usually aired on Fox.

I would hope Romney will be kicking it up a notch this week. I can only hope that after laying low during the Dem convention and then for 9/11 . . . that this will be the week he goes nuclear with his ads against Obama.

How is it in the swing states with R/R advertising?


6 posted on 09/17/2012 5:54:08 AM PDT by Qwackertoo (Romney/Ryan 2012 The Future of Our Children and Their Children are at stake.)
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To: granada

based on what? A poll by F Chuck Todd?


7 posted on 09/17/2012 5:54:23 AM PDT by Perdogg
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To: granada

The problem I see is that Mitt’s only selling point is that “he’s not Obama”, hard to win an election that way.


8 posted on 09/17/2012 5:55:32 AM PDT by dfwgator (I'm voting for Ryan and that other guy.)
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To: ILS21R
We still have the debates.

ALL of which are chaired by left wing moderators who have been apologists for the kenyan! Hint: The fix is in.

9 posted on 09/17/2012 5:56:04 AM PDT by The Sons of Liberty ("Get that evil, foreign, muslim, usurping bastard out of MY White House!" FUBO GTFO!)
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To: granada
The series of recent events has allegedly turned this race into one about "foreign policy," instead of the terrible economy. If I were Romney, I would argue that extension of US foreign policy is only possible if we have a strong economy. Everything is tied to the economy.
10 posted on 09/17/2012 5:56:07 AM PDT by Lou L (Health "insurance" is NOT the same as health "care")
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To: granada

If obama wins all those idiots who vote for him are going to get what they deserve. Unfortunately, the rest of us go down too. I really loathe liberals. Wish we could split the country and leave them in their blue cities to rot.


11 posted on 09/17/2012 5:56:25 AM PDT by jersey117
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To: granada
Photobucket I don't believe the media.
12 posted on 09/17/2012 5:56:27 AM PDT by baddog 219
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To: Perdogg

I am not an Erickson fan. He blogs a conservative game online; and then when he is on CNN he barely lifts a finger to either defend the GOP nominee or even explain a conservative position.

Anybody concur?

The point is, he’s only out for himself.


13 posted on 09/17/2012 5:58:17 AM PDT by mwl8787
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To: Perdogg

I am not an Erickson fan. He blogs a conservative game online; and then when he is on CNN he barely lifts a finger to either defend the GOP nominee or even explain a conservative position.

Anybody concur?

The point is, he’s only out for himself.


14 posted on 09/17/2012 5:58:30 AM PDT by mwl8787
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To: granada

This isn’t new. I’ve said this from before the end of the primary. Mitt is like the reluctant suitor. Do I believe he would lose if the election were held today. I’d have a hard time believing that because that underestimates the very real animosity and disappointment voters have with Obama.These voters have been waiting to vote against Obama for two election cycles. Obama also has problem with his base. Many blacks are talking about staying home and I get the feeling a sizable percentage of young voters who are unemployed and disenchanted with him will also.

Now this isn’t saying that Romney is winning. He isn’t. Obama is losing which is another thing altogether. Team Romney is playing the risky run out the clock and close at the end ploy. They are counting on Obama to lose. I hate that strategy because it is stupid. Obama represents the most leftwing President since Woodrow Wilson. The fact that team Romeny isn’t hitting him on all fronts including using the walking talking wedge issue that is Obama and his Obamacare to defeat his is a travesty.

If Romney loses if will be because he never really fought at all.


15 posted on 09/17/2012 5:59:12 AM PDT by Maelstorm (Now lets return to our regular scheduled deprogramming.)
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To: granada

Shades of 1980 when the media promoted the same bogus polls to show Carter ahead of Reagan by 10 points just before the election.

We know how that turned out.

Pay no mind, just keep talking to folks on the multiple reasons why a re-election of Obama is bad for them and their families.


16 posted on 09/17/2012 6:00:57 AM PDT by exit82 (Pass the word: Obama is a FAILURE!! Democrats are the enemies of freedom!)
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To: granada
We must face the facts - we have McLame 2 on our hands.

A candidate that is has become the candidate by hanging around the longest. A Vice President candidate that is much more appealing to conservatives than the President candidate is. An opponent that has the press, most of the Washington bureaucracy (and all the other pigs that slop at the government troth), as well as all the people that receive a check every month from the government, on his side.

Most conservatives are prepared to hold their nose and vote for Mittens in November, but there is no fire, no passion, no real desire to fight. As a consequence, it's all in Zero's hands. If he can turn out his full army (more commonly known as the cancer upon our society) - he will win.

The worst part about this is that every year more and more people starting getting more money from the government, meaning that every year it gets more and more difficult for an actual conservative to win. Unless God can provide us with a second Reagan, we may be facing a hill too high to climb. At least until the second American Revolution starts - which the way things are going, may be in my lifetime.

17 posted on 09/17/2012 6:03:11 AM PDT by I cannot think of a name
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To: exit82
Pay no mind, just keep talking to folks on the multiple reasons why a re-election of Obama is bad for them and their families.

Reagan didn't beat Carter because Carter sucked alone...Reagan inspired people, they felt good about him.

Does anyone really feel that way about Mitt? He sure doesn't inspire me, I just want Obama out.

But candidates running on "I'm not the other guy" seldom do well.

18 posted on 09/17/2012 6:04:17 AM PDT by dfwgator (I'm voting for Ryan and that other guy.)
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To: mwl8787
Lately I've been wondering if Erick is on crack. I think he's having trouble washing off the CNN and WSB slime every night, and is listening to the wrong voices.

Red states, like Erickson's Georgia, don't need Romney ads right now - their voters are living for November 6 and will crawl on broken glass to vote Obama out. And I still defy anyone to show me just ONE McCain-Palin voter who will switch to Obama this year.

19 posted on 09/17/2012 6:04:27 AM PDT by Always A Marine
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To: granada

Erick is wrong this time. He must not have seen the latest numbers from Rasmussen. Romney is ahead in the battleground states, and he’s also ahead nationally.

Erick Erickson has officially jumped the shark.


20 posted on 09/17/2012 6:06:16 AM PDT by o2bfree
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To: granada

I was watching tv at 5pm the day of the Wisconsin Recall election. All the media outlets reported the race was TOO CLOSE TO CALL. This was based on exit polls that over-sampled Dems the same way the polls that put Zero ahead today are over-sampling Dems. We all know how Wisconsin turned out: Walker won 53-47. Don’t believe the lie of Obama being ahead in the polls that the press is trying to foist on us.


21 posted on 09/17/2012 6:06:58 AM PDT by ShovelThemOut
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To: mwl8787

i agree completely. Erick Erickson is a complete nonentity on TV, I’ve completely lost respect for him as a conservative commentator.

Erick Erickson is starting to follow in Scarebrow’s footsteps...becoming more or less an anti-conservative.


22 posted on 09/17/2012 6:10:30 AM PDT by o2bfree
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To: mwl8787

agree.


23 posted on 09/17/2012 6:13:53 AM PDT by Perdogg
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To: mwl8787

Agreed. Erickson is a turd. He takes hardline on his little blog. Then shows up on CNN and plays the typical RINO rollover.


24 posted on 09/17/2012 6:14:42 AM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: Always A Marine

All very true.

As far as I can tell, that slime from CNN and the others soon soon becomes completely unwashable and then hardens into a permanent fixture about the person, at which point they begin producing and spreading their own slime.


25 posted on 09/17/2012 6:15:11 AM PDT by reasonisfaith (Why do you seek the living among the dead? (Luke 24:5))
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To: mwl8787

Yeah, Erickson subs for Neal Boortz and provides hours and hours of intelligent sounding vacillation


26 posted on 09/17/2012 6:16:03 AM PDT by johncocktoasten (Practicing asymetrical thread warfare against anti-Palin Trolls)
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To: granada

Have had to listen to Eric as a fill-in for Boortz recently. I do not tend to agree with his logic.


27 posted on 09/17/2012 6:17:55 AM PDT by Eagle of Liberty (We the People are coming!!)
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To: granada
That’s either a sign of the apocalypse or there is something really dysfunctional happening within the Romney campaign.

This week's talking point now being perpetrated by another useful idiot.

28 posted on 09/17/2012 6:22:04 AM PDT by frogjerk (OBAMA NOV 2012 = HORSEMEAT)
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To: exit82; All

” - - - Pay no mind, just keep talking to folks on the multiple reasons why a re-election of Obama is bad for them and their families.”

How has that plan been working out for Romney/Ryan?

Looks to me that the “folks” don’t see much difference between Obama and Romney.

The polls reflect the perceived difference between what Obama has done to America, and what Romney plans to do.

Can Romney actually say what he plans to do?

My guess is that Romney will just continue to describe what Obama has done, and thus act as a salesman FOR Obama’s base who like what Obama has done.

The Independent voter will vote for the incumbent if there is no perceived difference between two candidates.

Romney cannot compare his ideas to Obama’s, because that ties his and Obama’s ideas together in the mind of an undecided voter.

Can Romney give a speech without any direct or indirect to what Obama has done?

Can Romney stand and deliver his Romney Plan, or will he just continue to play that old nanny-nanny boo-boo game of “My plan is better than your plan. Nanny-nanny Boo-boo.”?

Tick-tock, Romney. Tick-tock.


29 posted on 09/17/2012 6:25:24 AM PDT by Graewoulf ((Traitor John Roberts' Obama"care" violates Sherman Anti-Trust Law, AND the U.S. Constitution.))
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To: dfwgator

But this time democrat candidate has a huge backlash to contend with. There was nothing like that in 1980.

The backlash variable has not been factored into any polls, and it’s probably the most powerful variable in this election.


30 posted on 09/17/2012 6:27:35 AM PDT by reasonisfaith (Why do you seek the living among the dead? (Luke 24:5))
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To: dfwgator

Yes, Reagan inspired people, and the media constantly berated him and tried to marginalize him.

While there are amazing similarities to 1980 and today, my biggest fear is then we still had the WW2 generation with us in the electorate who remembered a great America. Now, it is the baby boomers, and they have been a mixed bag their whole lives. They failed to decisively demand justice with Bill Clinton and hold him to account, and since then, it has been the elevation of the media celebrity over real substance, as we saw in the 2008 election.

Although to us, only fifty days out is panic time, to the rest of the country, this campaign has barely started.

The contrast between Romney and Obama since last Wednesday is so stark, that we need to talk it up because most folks are not tuned in yet.

Romney can’t be Reagan, although I think Ryan could be—he has the ability to be inspirational, because like Reagan, Ryan has a clear and unapologetic moral position.

Romney’s moral positions are generall good, but not always clear cut.

But compared to Obama, it is night and day.

I wish the pundits on our side would spend their time and ink blasting this miserable excuse for a PResident and Sec’y of State, instead of criticizing the Romney campaign.
To me, that does not accomplish anything, and just amplifies the media narrative.

There is a mountain of material to criticize Obama on, but they choose to focus elsewhwere.I don’t get that.


31 posted on 09/17/2012 6:33:45 AM PDT by exit82 (Pass the word: Obama is a FAILURE!! Democrats are the enemies of freedom!)
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To: mwl8787; Perdogg
I am not an Erickson fan. He blogs a conservative game online; and then when he is on CNN he barely lifts a finger to either defend the GOP nominee or even explain a conservative position. Anybody concur? The point is, he’s only out for himself.

I concur.

But this is not a thread about Erik Erickson's character.

His points, I believe, are salient.

32 posted on 09/17/2012 6:34:17 AM PDT by Lazamataz (RAGE MONKEY RULEZ!!!)
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To: mwl8787

I totally agree, Erickson is like a Bill O’Reilly sometimes he takes the liberal position just to appease his buddies at CNN. The fact of the matter is, is that Erickson is relying on garbage polls that are oversampling dems by +10 and more percentage points and he isn’t factoring in the debates which have yet to be held. Romney is still up in Raz and when you readjust polls with 2010 sampling he leads. I’m not saying we have this in the bag yet, but Erickson’s doom and gloom bs gets real old, real fast.


33 posted on 09/17/2012 6:37:19 AM PDT by erod (This Chicagoan will crawl over broken glass to vote the fake Chicagoan Obama out!)
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To: o2bfree

Erik pisses me off. He’s often wrong but always vocal.
And he doesn’t give a damn if he is helping or hurting conservatives.


34 posted on 09/17/2012 6:37:40 AM PDT by gatewaypundit
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To: granada

Erickson was one of the first ‘Conservatives’ to jump on the “There is only one President at a time and Romney should not have commented on the Cairo statement” camp on Twitter.

Asshat.


35 posted on 09/17/2012 6:37:47 AM PDT by arkady_renko
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To: mwl8787

I concur. I actually prefer Chris Matthews to Erickson. Matthews doesn’t pretend to be something he is not.


36 posted on 09/17/2012 6:40:21 AM PDT by arkady_renko
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To: granada

He probably would win today... but thankfully the election isn’t happening today.

Romney has a chance to win this if we have extremely high voter turnout on the GOP side. The dark side out numbers us, but hopefully we still have intensity on our side.


37 posted on 09/17/2012 6:42:50 AM PDT by ScottinVA (If Obama is reelected, America will deserve every mockery that follows.)
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To: Graewoulf

The polls have been exposed as having a trememndous numerical of Dem responsdents, and that has been almost universal.

Even with that advantage built in—ask yourself—why hasn’t Obama gotten to more than 50% in any poll?

Besdies, if you don’t like Romney, what is your alternative in 50 days? Voting for Obama?

At the minimum you should be supporting Ryan, who is a conservative. At worst this is no different from 2008—I voted for the VP candidate then.

It is what it is. No sense kvetching about spilt milk at this stage.


38 posted on 09/17/2012 6:44:28 AM PDT by exit82 (Pass the word: Obama is a FAILURE!! Democrats are the enemies of freedom!)
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To: granada

I don’t know what Erickson’s major malfunction is, but maybe he can explain how Romney loses when he leads independents by double digits in every poll I’ve seen.


39 posted on 09/17/2012 6:45:30 AM PDT by Mase (Save me from the people who would save me from myself!)
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To: dfwgator

Just the fact that “ he is not Obama” is enough to motivate anyone who thinks. Our nation is collapsing on all fronts under Obama. His “Wag the Dog” stunt recently has jeopardized national security.


40 posted on 09/17/2012 6:54:04 AM PDT by nclaurel
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To: dfwgator

Just the fact that “ he is not Obama” is enough to motivate anyone who thinks. Our nation is collapsing on all fronts under Obama. His “Wag the Dog” stunt recently has jeopardized national security.


41 posted on 09/17/2012 6:54:08 AM PDT by nclaurel
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To: granada

When Mitt loses his double digit lead with indies then we will talk. Until then,this election is over


42 posted on 09/17/2012 6:55:21 AM PDT by italianquaker ( 17 percent of the tea partiers support barry obama, the fox poll said so lol)
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To: nclaurel
Just the fact that “ he is not Obama” is enough to motivate anyone who thinks.

There are not enough thinking people in this country, unfortunately....they feel.

43 posted on 09/17/2012 6:55:46 AM PDT by dfwgator (I'm voting for Ryan and that other guy.)
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To: ShovelThemOut

I remember that, too...good reminder.
But this guy is supposed to be on “our” side!
We really need to “clean house” after this election both in the Pubbie party and in the “conservative” media...
I’m sick of fighting this battle on two fronts....


44 posted on 09/17/2012 6:59:32 AM PDT by matginzac
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To: jersey117

There are still conservatives, even on this site, who will not miss an opportunity to tear down Romney. These are the same people who will complain the loudest if Obama is re-elected.


45 posted on 09/17/2012 6:59:44 AM PDT by monocle
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To: mwl8787

He’s promoted and quoted on Morning Joe ad nauseum. Which backs up your point.


46 posted on 09/17/2012 7:03:24 AM PDT by CaptainK (...please make it stop. Shake a can of pennies at it.)
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To: ScottinVA

Another question...
Seeing any Obozo signs in your neck of the woods?
I live by a predominately black neighborhood - very nice folks, quiet neighborhood - in a “majority, minority” district...
In 2008, the place was plastered with Obozo signs...
This year, not one...
An omen of things to come?


47 posted on 09/17/2012 7:05:46 AM PDT by matginzac
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To: exit82

The main question is where does Romney stand with the “leaners”? Can he win them over to his side in the days leading up to the election. Probably never so much has ridden on the debates as this election. I think people are still waiting to see what Mitt’s all about.


48 posted on 09/17/2012 7:06:10 AM PDT by dfwgator (I'm voting for Ryan and that other guy.)
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To: granada

If the election were held today, who would win the 2016 election?


49 posted on 09/17/2012 7:09:26 AM PDT by bad company (There are no illegal guns, just undocumented firearms.)
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To: matginzac

I don’t see too many yard signs, but bumper stickers are about even... of course I pass through Newport News on I-64 on the way to work. But there’s nothing like the cult movement we saw in 2008.

One thing I’ve noticed since 0bama took power in 2009... not one... not a single one of those “Dissent is Patriotic” stickers.


50 posted on 09/17/2012 7:10:33 AM PDT by ScottinVA (If Obama is reelected, America will deserve every mockery that follows.)
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