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Mitt Romney and that 47%
The Monkey Cage ^ | September 17, 2012 | John Sides

Posted on 09/17/2012 10:16:36 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

Josh Barro:

You can mark my prediction now: A secret recording from a closed-door Mitt Romney fundraiser, released today by David Corn at Mother Jones, has killed Mitt Romney’s campaign for president.

Josh Marshall:

It’s rare when the impact of some gaffe or embarrassment or revelation isn’t overstated on first blush. But this may just be that rare exception. This tape strikes me as absolutely devastating.

Whoa, whoa, whoa. Hasn’t the 2012 campaign taught us not to jump the gun with various “gaffes”? (Yes, I will be using scare quotes throughout.) In fact, didn’t the 2008 campaign teach us this too? Here is my old graph with the 2008 Democratic primary polls, noting Obama’s comment about “bitter” voters who “cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations.”

No movement in the polls after the story broke. Let’s do some from the 2012 general election thus far:

No discernible or certainly consequential movement because of Obama’s two “gaffes.” The only movement after Romney’s comments about the Libya attack is in his favor, thanks largely to the probably inevitable tightening after Obama’s convention bump.

The best case for saying that “gaffes matter” is that actual voters are persuaded to change their minds because of the gaffes. If they don’t, then it’s tough to argue that “gaffes” are really “game-changers.” And, in fact, usually voters don’t change their minds. See, for example, Michael Tesler’s and my analyses of the impact of “the private sector is doing fine.”

The best argument you can make about these gaffes is sort of a woolly counterfactual: “Well, if it hadn’t been for the release of Romney’s video today, Romney would have been able to accomplish X, Y, and Z, which would have helped him win the election.” Like any counterfactual, there is some plausibility—yes, Romney would rather talk about the unemployment rate than these comments.

But like any counterfactual, it’s predicated on assumptions about what the world would have looked like without these comments. And given the tenuousness of any such assumptions, and the (at best) small effects that single events in any presidential general election campaign tend to have, I would stop well short of calling this video “devastating.”

Many a news cycle was built on a “gaffe” with a remarkably short shelf life.


TOPICS: Campaign News; Issues; Polls
KEYWORDS: obama; polls; romney; taxes

1 posted on 09/17/2012 10:16:41 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

good points. not to mention, the polls are rigged.
even when it was Hillary vrs Obama.
(like the lastest CBS poll, at D+13 !)


2 posted on 09/17/2012 10:21:34 PM PDT by Elendur (It is incumbent on every generation to pay its own debts as it goes. - Thomas Jefferson)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Clinging to guns and Bibles was offensive.

Romney pointed out what various news stories already stated. The “takers” weren’t voting for him anyway.


3 posted on 09/17/2012 10:21:42 PM PDT by TigerClaws
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

People that were going to vote against Obama heard something they liked.

People that hate Romney and Republicans heard something they did not like.

Everyone else is too busy with Justin Bieber and the fall TV lineup.

When the bombs start flying against Iran no one will even remember this.


4 posted on 09/17/2012 10:25:47 PM PDT by icwhatudo (Low taxes and less spending in Sodom and Gomorrah is not my idea of a conservative victory)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

The only “gaffes” in recent memory that had any staying power were “I was for it before I was against it” and “I never had sex with that woman”, Clinton’s only memorable line after 20 years of running his mouth.


5 posted on 09/17/2012 10:28:06 PM PDT by chuckee
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Well John, You may mark my words now.
Obama killed Chris Stephan’s and 3 others with ineptitude.
He has killed the economy and the first amendment.

FUBO!


6 posted on 09/17/2012 10:29:42 PM PDT by mylife (The Roar Of The Masses Could Be Farts)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

It seems to me that this election is far too polarized to be affected by perceived “gaffes”. It’s strange, but gaffes seem to have more devastating effects in every other election whether it be senate and house races, or primaries.

Rick Perry’s “oops” destroyed his campaign

Herman Cain not knowing anything about Libya

The infamous “witchcraft” facepalm

Akin’s rape comment

I’d like someone to bring up a presidential race where a candidate was destroyed by a gaffe. I can’t recall one.


7 posted on 09/17/2012 10:32:53 PM PDT by Viennacon
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Obama's "bitter clingers" gaffe was minimized and swept under the rug by the left-wing news media. Romney's comment will be amplified and embellished by that same media all the way until election day. Huge difference.

The media has had a left-wing bias for a long time; but they didn't truly become a fully-fledged, actively campaigning propaganda arm for the Democratic party until Obama's first run at the presidency in 2008 (when they destroyed Sarah Palin). Amazingly, they are even worse this year. Given the attention span and general slack-jawed dipshittedness of the average American voter, I don't think this can be overcome unless Romney finds his inner Gingrich. He needs to treat the news media with the contempt they deserve, and maybe even express a little bit of contempt for our first anti-American president.

8 posted on 09/17/2012 10:38:13 PM PDT by Junior_G (Funny how liberals' love affair with Muslims began on 9/11)
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To: TigerClaws

Seems to me most people do not want to be considered as “takers” so they will group themselves with the 53%.

This could be a smart move by Romney.


9 posted on 09/17/2012 10:42:52 PM PDT by zeebee
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To: Viennacon

>> I’d like someone to bring up a presidential race where a candidate was destroyed by a gaffe. I can’t recall one. <<

Dukakis. Quayle. Palin. “Read my lips”

But what Romney did was not a gaffe.


10 posted on 09/17/2012 10:46:51 PM PDT by zeebee
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To: Viennacon

Well, let me just say Akin hasn’t lost yet, not yet anyway.

And you left out Pawlenty’s unwillingness to say “Obamneycare” to Romeny’s face. I like Pawlenty, but that was just craven.

Maybe “I was for it before I was against it” hurt Kerry, but not so much as the TRUTHS the swiftboaters reminded America about.

And I’d say Dukakis in the tank, although one might quibble whether or not that was a gaffe. And my understanding from recent reading is that he led in the polls long after that.

Although I’ll never forget looking at that picture and hubby saying to me “Was $25 grand too much to offer for that roll of film?” (LOL, remember rolls of film? We’re old! - that was back when 25 Gs was real big money!)

And I also remember, what was that magazine SPY? I think that was what it was called, ran a “separated at birth” thing with Dukakis and the Cleveland Indians mascot “Chief Wahoo”, it cracked me up so much hubby got me an Indians sweatshirt. I still have it, maybe I should go up to Mass. and go door to door for Elizabeth Warren!

Goshdarn, we need to be of good cheer. Let’s go kick the dems to the curb this November, let’s all just try as hard as we can to make that happen. Because they are just awful.

Hey, the Republicans won’t win any prizes either, but the dems are the worst bunch of liars, phonies and bs artists you can find.


11 posted on 09/17/2012 10:49:26 PM PDT by jocon307
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

That “gaffe” just cemented my support for the guy. Previously lukewarm, I now feel I might have misjudged him a bit.

This “gaffe” shows me that he actually understands that the exchange of stand-up citizenship for government largessee status represents an existential threat to our future as a nation.


12 posted on 09/17/2012 10:50:09 PM PDT by John Valentine (Deep in the Heart of Texas)
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To: Viennacon

“Poland is not under soviet domination”


13 posted on 09/17/2012 10:52:50 PM PDT by Arthurio
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Actually, this is way overblown (duh!). I think there are quite a few seniors in that 47% category that would never DREAM of voting for Obama. How does the guv not know this?


14 posted on 09/17/2012 11:05:16 PM PDT by Mach9
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To: Arthurio
President Ford had the Nixon albatross around his neck. What is Mitt Romney's millstone that compares to “You didn't build that” or ObamaCare or severe unemployment & underemployment or Libya or booing God and Jerusalem?
15 posted on 09/17/2012 11:07:40 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
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To: John Valentine

I’m in your camp.

Prior to this, I thought Romney was just another Rockefeller Republican.

Now I’m starting to think that he might ‘get it’.

Starting to. I’m still not convinced, because he’s back-peddling on the comment, and his speech didn’t talk about what to DO about the 47% who are head-down at Uncle’s feed bunk.


16 posted on 09/17/2012 11:20:03 PM PDT by NVDave
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

A strange world we live in when the truth is labelled a “gaffe.”


17 posted on 09/17/2012 11:21:26 PM PDT by FlipWilson
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To: Arthurio

Actually he said “Eastern Europe,” not Poland. It wasn’t really a gaffe until he insisted he didn’t misspeak (actually intending Western Europe.) When he dug his heals in, he looked quite stupid — and, he was.


18 posted on 09/18/2012 12:14:02 AM PDT by FredZarguna (Own it Mitt: it's never a gaffe to speak the truth.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
NO matter how much liberals try, the public isn't buying their spin, deception, and treachery any longer.


The LAME Stream Media is full of VILE liberals, spinning lies.

19 posted on 09/18/2012 12:20:30 AM PDT by Yosemitest (It's simple, fight or die!)
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To: icwhatudo

that sums it up perfectly


20 posted on 09/18/2012 12:30:57 AM PDT by onona (This space for rent....cheep)
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To: John Valentine
That “gaffe” just cemented my support for the guy. Previously lukewarm, I now feel I might have misjudged him a bit.

Yeah but it was a gaffe...a BIIGTIME Gaffe due to his comfortability in saying the things he said to his audiance.

He just p!ssed away 10% of the Latino vote and he wasn't strong there to begin with. Don't these guys know the A/V is on? W-t-heck we can make out like this "solidifies" folks who were going to vote for him anyway - but those folks only get 1 vote in this system.

This was a major mistake in a campaign that is seeming to do mistakes for a living :^(
21 posted on 09/18/2012 1:01:35 AM PDT by DJlaysitup
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To: DJlaysitup

Audiance = Audience...I even checked it...Aaargh!


22 posted on 09/18/2012 1:05:08 AM PDT by DJlaysitup
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To: DJlaysitup

Seriously - this kind of “Dumminess” is a problem. I even heard a black guy talking to another black person (security guards) who said he was undecided and wished he could vote for Clinton again.

Undecided voters often don’t vote...but they will when they here something like this.

You can’t say 47% of the people are on the government dole...they aren’t...at least all the way. I get my coffee from McD’s every morning and sometimes an Egg McMuffin and I see the same people every day and they are adults who get up at 6:00am for every shift. They always say thank you and “come back”. These aren’t lazy people and I don’t begrudge them a few foodstamps if their salary is low.

Romney is messing up bigtime IMHO.


23 posted on 09/18/2012 1:17:42 AM PDT by DJlaysitup
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

here's a clue for you liberals. what groups are disproprtionately represented in those red highlighted states? hint: 97% of this particular group voted for Barack Obama in 2008.

24 posted on 09/18/2012 1:20:37 AM PDT by RC one
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To: RC one

Well I don’t have a problem with the fact that your graph shows that the southern states are the highest “Non-Payers” by state...my state (Georgia is pretty close to a “paying state”)


25 posted on 09/18/2012 1:29:16 AM PDT by DJlaysitup
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To: Viennacon

I seem to remember Gerald Ford saying something about certain Eastern European countries behind the Iron Curtain actually being “free” during a debate with Carter...it was pretty devastating.


26 posted on 09/18/2012 1:35:30 AM PDT by Happy Rain (Mitt four then Sarah eight.)
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To: DJlaysitup

Georgia-the state with the third highest population of african americans. Mississippi is number one. Lousiana is number 2. South Carolina is #5. Alabama is #6. Florida is #11 and Arkansas is #12. I wonder why there are so many people collecting welfare and not paying taxes in those states.


27 posted on 09/18/2012 1:41:50 AM PDT by RC one
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To: DJlaysitup

Yep. And there’s a bigger problem: oblunder has clearly divided this country in many ways, polarized groups against one another. Romney’s comments only make this worse. He should be pointing out obluncer’s divisiveness and not coming up with his own.

At a time when we need to come together, Romney needs to reach out to every group and invite them in. That’s what Reagan did. Reagan would never have written off half the Citizens for the other party. He invited them to join him to make a new America.


28 posted on 09/18/2012 2:40:38 AM PDT by gotribe (WTF?)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
For God's sake, Mitt, how could you let anyone know that De Toqueville was actually right? De Toqueville can be admired in the abstract for his prescience, but he MUST be denied if the merde has actually impacted virtually every blade of the fan... and now here you go telling the truth. We can't have that.

Here we are at the point where a guy who knows economics inside and out is blasted from both sides for making a true statement, while the lying son-of-a-bitch-in-chief gets plaudits for each new fabrication manufactured for him. Screw it. This country really is dead.

Mr. niteowl77

29 posted on 09/18/2012 3:34:06 AM PDT by niteowl77 (Getting stuck with other peoples' just desserts good and hard for over 50 years.)
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To: TigerClaws

This is true. Romney is/was never going to get the Government Dependents’ votes anyway. His winning depends on massive voter turnout on the ABO side, and with independents, with an ambivalent Democrat leech turnout.


30 posted on 09/18/2012 3:39:54 AM PDT by Gaffer
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

It was not a “gaffe”, it was a serious violation of the standards of Political Correctness.


31 posted on 09/18/2012 4:00:01 AM PDT by Fresh Wind ('People have got to know whether or not their president is a crook.' Richard M. Nixon)
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To: zeebee

...”But what Romney did was not a gaffe”...

It was called that by people who major in calling good, evil and evil, good. ...”Jesus (Yeshua) warned Satan is the “father of all lies. The Bible warns “in the last days” evil men (and women) will be prevalent. Lying and deception (and being deceived) will characterize the generation (and the leaders) who will pull the world down into the dark abyss and terrors of the coming “Apocalypse” . . .

“But KNOW this,

that in the last days

perilous times will come . . .

Evil men and impostors will grow worse and worse,

deceiving (lying) and being deceived.”

(2 Timothy 3:1, 13)”...
http://www.alphanewsdaily.com/Warning%205%20Lying%20and%20Deceiving.html

We believers admit to being a “peculiar” people because some of us believe we are in the last days. What description can come closer than that of the previous quote to describing the hedonism of our ruling classes today? God has a place prepared for the just and the unjust..We must always remember that a final judgement will bring justice to bear on the sinful men and women who have only lusted for power in their short lives here on this earth.
...”for “All flesh is like grass and all its glory like the flower of grass. The grass withers, and the flower falls”...ESV 1 Peter 1:24


32 posted on 09/18/2012 4:06:06 AM PDT by jazzlite (esat)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

And do we expect that all welfare mothers want the same lifestyle for their daughters? I think not! And do we expect that all disabled fathers want their sons to be disabled? I think not!

Dependent people want better for their children. They want their children to be employed and self-sufficient. These are the children for whom Romney will be providing opportunities.


33 posted on 09/18/2012 4:34:05 AM PDT by abclily
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To: zeebee

I think it’s a very smart move. Remember when Obama said “everyone’s got to have skin in the game?” Well everyone doesn’t. Half the country is carrying the other half and both the middle class and the wealthy resent it.


34 posted on 09/18/2012 4:44:33 AM PDT by jersey117
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To: DJlaysitup

I am flabbergasted at how wrong-headed your post is.

There is NO WAY that the Republicans can out-Democrat the Democrats. That’s what got us into this mess.

And if you are saying that Latino’s are all part of the 47%, that’s just wrong.

And for the ones who are, along with whites, blacks and everyone else, it’s time for the parasites to consider the health of the host or nobody is gong to be left.

We just can’t afford to let this go on, and for my part I commend him for getting this issue out in the open.


35 posted on 09/18/2012 5:02:51 AM PDT by John Valentine (Deep in the Heart of Texas)
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To: DJlaysitup

Oh the Latino vote is already lockstep to Obama for Mexicans, thanks to Obama’s promising of illegal alien bennies. For Cubans Romney has a lead I am sure. Puerto Ricans may be slightly in the Obama camp although historically they don’t get along with blacks.


36 posted on 09/18/2012 5:44:53 AM PDT by RochesterNYconservative (ROMNEY/RYAN 20121)
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To: Gaffer

This might actually work in his favor to “gin up” and excite the base! Bush did this in 2004 and won by about 4%. it is doable! But none of you who claim to be conservatives need to sit on the fence!


37 posted on 09/18/2012 5:47:14 AM PDT by gbscott1954 (Please come back Sarah!!!)
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To: gbscott1954

Despite the fact that Romney wasn’t my choice, I will vote. I will vote. I will vote - for Romney - Against OBAMA!!!!!


38 posted on 09/18/2012 7:06:02 AM PDT by Gaffer
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