but...but...he’s eye candy on the View.?
Rove is still a jerk!
We HEART Rove now!
I can not believe that my great state of Tennessee is not solid red. Even the home boy, Gore, did not win Tennessee, neither did Obozo.
Maybe they oversampled black Memphis.
“Mr. Romney saw Georgia move from ‘lean’ to ‘safe’ Romney, New Hampshire change from ‘lean’ Obama to ‘toss up,’ and New Mexico and Pennsylvania both shift from ‘safe’ to ‘lean’ Obama.
Hmmm... anything to do with Newt Gingrich and John Sununu?
PA is leaning Obama. Is Santorum on vacation?
Rove is a POS.
I trust his predictions about as much as TheToe Sucker.
Are they using the same numbers?
Draw your own conclusions as to the value of an average of all polls in a state.
Rove, You Magnificient Bastard!
I wouldn’t trust Rove if he told me I had feet. Rove pulled this same BS in 2008 and he was WAY off.
I just wish we’d get this debacle over with so we can focus on building Conservatism and not trying to claim that every pollster in the history of Mankind is involved in some wild conspiracy.
Based on a 30 day polling avg. not exactly current.
I still can’t believe people are even considering Obama. It should be a blowout for Romney. Where have people been for the last four years!
Incumbents in any political race normally enjoy a 12-15 point advantage from the onset of a campaign.
That usually settles to a 7-10 point margin by the time the debates roll around.
If the challenger scores heavily in the debates - that margin can evaporate easily.
As an example, Carter was ahead of Reagan by the typical margin at the time of the last debate. BUT, Reagan nailed him and Carter saw his lead evaporate in a week and got blown out on election day.
In this election, with the polls essentially tied, if I were with the Obama campaign - I would be extremely worried.
There are about 7-9 percent of the electorate “undecided” at this point - and the majority of them historically swing to the challenger [in this case, 4-6 percent].
If Obama gets nailed in the debates, 1-2 percent of those previously voting for him might even change their minds.
That may translate into a cumulative 5-8 percent swing to Romney.
Food for thought ...
That is true. Add this to Jim Messina (Obama campaign) telling people to ignore the polls, and Obama not being able to fill venues anymore, low enthusiasm among his base etc etc... It looks very bad for Obama.
Oct is coming the real polling will start.
I can’t believe any of the polls that went from tossup to plus 8 Obama lie Ohio did. Nothing happened to move the meter like that.
It really is an unfair race though as Obama is running in 57 states and Romney is only running in 50 states.
UnSkewed Polling Data
|UnSkewed Avg.||9/4 - 9/20||--||--||44.0||51.8||Romney +7.8|
|Reason/Rupe||9/13 - 9/17||787 LV||4.3||45.0||52.0||Romney +7|
|Reuters/Ipsos||9/12 - 9/20||1437 LV||2.9||44.0||54.0||Romney +10|
|NBC News/WSJ||9/12 - 9/16||736 LV||3.6||44.0||51.0||Romney +7|
|Monmouth Univ.||9/13 - 9/16||1344 LV||2.5||45.0||50.0||Romney +5|
|QStarNews||9/10 - 9/15||2075||3.0||44.0||55.0||Romney +11|
|NY Times/CBS News||9/8 - 9/12||1162 LV||3.0||44.0||51.0||Romney +7|
|Democracy Corps||9/8 - 9/12||1000 LV||3.1||43.0||52.0||Romney +8|
|Fox News||9/9 - 9/11||1056 LV||3.0||45.0||48.0||Romney +3|
|Wash. Post/ABC News||9/7 - 9/9||826 LV||4.0||45.0||52.0||Romney +7|
|CNN/ORC||9/7 - 9/9||875 RV||3.5||45.0||53.0||Romney +8|
|IBD/CSM/TIPP||9/4 - 9/9||808 RV||3.5||41.0||50.0||Romney +9|
|ARG||9/4 - 9/6||1200 LV||3.0||43.0||53.0||Romney +10|
UnSkewed Polling Data
|UnSkewed Avg.||9/4 - 9/20||--||--||44.1||52.9||Disapproval 8.8|
|Reason/Rupe||9/13 - 9/17||787 LV||4.3||44.0||53.0||Disapproval 9|
|NBC News/WSJ||9/12 - 9/16||736 LV||3.6||44.0||54.0||Disapproval 10|
|QStarNews||9/10 - 9/15||2075||3.0||45.0||55.0||Disapproval 10|
|NY Times/CBS News||9/8 - 9/12||1162 LV||3.0||44.0||51.0||Disapproval 7|
|Democracy Corps||9/8 - 9/12||1000 LV||3.1||42.0||55.0||Disapproval 13|
|Fox News||9/9 - 9/11||1056 LV||3.0||45.0||53.0||Disapproval 8|
|Wash. Post/ABC News||9/7 - 9/9||826 LV||4.0||45.0||49.0||Disapproval 4|
|CNN/ORC||9/7 - 9/9||875 RV||3.5||44.0||53.0||Disapproval 9|