Skip to comments.Remember The Day When Independents "Decided The Election"???
Posted on 09/28/2012 2:53:14 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
In 2008 and 2010 that is all we heard, Independents, Independents, Independents.... How many times did we hear "It's the Independents that decide the election". Remember that??
Well look how that's changed today. But oddly enough, we don't hear anything about the oh-so valuable "Independents" from the National NotWorks about it. Is Obama really "running away" with this election like they keep trying to portray or "running from it"??? Hmmm.... If Independents decide the elections, these numbers look like Obama's going to get another shellacking.
Media Ignore Independents' Swing Toward Romney
by Dustin Hawkins September 27, 2012
Not long ago, Independents were the go-to demographic for determining who would win elections. How the Independents swung, so too would the election.
In 2008, Barack Obama carried Independents in Ohio by 8 points and in Florida by 7 points. That victory among Independents contributed a great deal to his 2.8-point win in Florida and his 4.5 point win in Ohio. A victory by Romney among Independents could tilt both key states in his favor.
Curiously, Independents seem to be mostly ignored this election cycle, and their presidential vote preference is almost unanimously ignored by the MSM. Instead, women have replaced Independents as the key demographic. This emphasis and sudden fascination conveniently ties in nicely with the Democrats fictitious War on Women meme.
In both Ohio and Florida, Barack Obamas clear leads all come from heavy over-sampling of Democrats, not from winning the crucial Indie vote. In fact, most of the polls that show Obama with big leads also show Romney handily winning Independent voters. Yet, somehow, Obama manages to increase his performance from 2008 despite Independents now opposing him. Let's take a look at how Romney is competing among Independents in recent polls:
Ohio Leads Among Independents
Ohio Newspaper Organization Romney +28
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac Romney +1
American Research Group Romney +16
Fox News Romney +4
We Ask America Romney +3
Public Policy Polling Romney +2
Florida - Leads Among Independents
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac Romney +3
Gravis Marketing Romney +4
We Ask America Romney +2
American Research Group Romney +1
Florida Times Union Romney +4
Fox News Obama +2
Remember, these are states Obama won by small margins in 2008, primarily by winning Independents by 7 and 8 points. If Barack Obama were winning with Independents in every poll, its clear the media would be talking about it just as they did, to the point of annoyance, four years ago.
Independents make up roughly one third of the electorate, and one would think they might get a little attention this time of year just as they do every other election year. If Romney turns the Independent vote his way like these polls suggest, his chances of winning turnout in even Florida and Ohio are excellent. But the reality is that the way Independents are now voting simply doesnt mix with the medias tidy narrative that Obama is running away with the election in key battleground states.
Think of the average nincompoop.
Those people only really decide who to vote for in the final few weeks based on who they think is going to win because they simply want to feel good.
Nincompoops decide a close election and the MSM with their slanted polls know it.
Agreed. The polls are being used to try to disqualify Romney before the debates even start. The media hopes it is a self-fulfilling prophesy. Only our side can make sure it is not by working hard, talking to our friends and colleagues, and voting.
I have no doubt this race is tight, and I think Obama likely has a slight edge at this moment in the key swing states, but he also is sitting well below 50%, and Romney has a clear path to win. I think these polls are under-measuring enthusiasm and turnout on our side. There is no less motivation today than in 2010.
I think they are also over-estimating Democrat and leaning-Dem turnout, especially in the mid-western states, VA, and FL. There simply is not high enthusiasm for Obama, and it will impact turnout. They’ll get their base out, but not all the voters that came out last time. Some will stay home, or vote Romney.
If you remove all the top level results - national and state poll results, and look at all the underlying numbers, none of it looks good for Obama. He is down in all key groups - Jewish, Young, Catholic, etc. He is almost universally losing independent voters.
When you consider a motivated GOP base, a Romney majority of independents, and all the voter loses in key groups (not to mention changes in registration), it seems like a good scenario.
Yet, somehow the polls reported after going through the polling methodologies show a whole different picture.
Obama is going to lose by 8-10% of the vote.
Obama does not have an edge in the key swing states.
Not "somehow". This is all a very deliberate, and well planned operation from the Obama campaign. They defined what the turnout models percentages should be used, and when. When Gallop used their own numbers instead, they were taken to task and spanked. This is all a well planed manipulation that is PHONY as the day is long. All independent, objective data points make a mockery of what these MSM and leftist university polls are supposed to be telling us.
How are independents actually defined by pollsters? Is it just anyone not registered D or R?
I don’t doubt allow that’s true, but it means either they know there will be enough out and out stealing to give them their result, or they are completely indifferent to what a laughingstock they’ll make of themselves. It’s the former scenario that scares me.
I think I can positively say that Bambi has lost NC, and we have a ton of NYNJ here. I cannot give an opinion on OH or FL as I don’t live there.
It's a lonely existence fur shur.
How such an amorphous indefinable unknowable group could have become a demographic is a great mystery.
Some could say the same about "Women" since they appear to have replaced Independents in the lexicon of the professional 'newsies'.
But, we digress.
Frankly, I don't believe independents exist. Sure, somebody will say they are one just to satisfy the prurient demands of some pollster, but are they really? I think it's more about the ROBOCALL PLAGUE
We had a member of the household accept a blind call ~ not realizing this was a pushpoll that member participated just for yucks. 'Yes, oh, yes ~ we love that Bama guy" ~ and that's where it went down hill.
The Democrats logged the number and it went into the file for later use ~ that being the Democrat DNC, National, State, District, and Legislative ROBOCALL files!
The machine had our phone number and wouldn't let go ~ first, it was just a couple of calls every other day a few weeks before the election, and it was this Barker dude running for the Virginia Senate. But then as each successive group in the Democrat stable that funds or helps candidate's logged in, it became 3 on Tuesday, and 8 on Friday, and a couple on Sunday.
One day it got up to 10 and I thought it couldn't get worse ~ but it did. It was on a weekend and this ol'gal knocked on the door and said she was passing out Democrat literature ~ pretty obvious she was a retired school teacher ~ had that hard-bitten "I Done Been Beatin' On 8th Graders Too Long" look. So, I Asked her, what can you do about Barker's robocalls ~ that I used to think he might be a reasonable man but lately I"d been getting these urges to DO SOMETHING ~
Well she got that wide eyed look Democrats get when they begin to feel they aren't welcome and began to look around for somewhere to hide. That's when i Invited her in to talk about this and she leaped off the porch almost to the sidewalk.
Offered her a beer as she ran away, but she was having none of that ~ her confederates picked her up in a car and skedaddled out of the neighborhood never to be seen again.
Alas, the robocall intensity increased to between 17 and 35 calls per day, and continued on into the post election vote counting.
I do not think I was alone in noticing that the Democrat ROBOCALL system was out of control.
Recently I read that the number of new registered independents is fairly equal to the number of lost registered Democrats, so could it be the Democrats tortured their own peeps?
That can't be all that good for get out the vote efforts, but even if they do show up does anyone really think these guys will vote Republican?
They don't give a damn about reputation because they know if they win, we will go past the tipping point. A leftist majority on the Supreme Court for the next 10-15 years, adding 30 million illegals as new rat voters guaranteeing wins for most future elections (think Kalifornia on a national level), deeply embedding Obamacare into the fabric of American life for a generation, hate laws to shut down churches, etc., etc.
Obama will get X percent of the vote regardless of what he does or says. His problem is that he can’t get to 50%. The Rats would be trumpeting the Indies lead if they had it. Not gonna happen this time. Voters are tired of the lies and the stupidity of Obama and his team. They will vote him out in Nov. by a landslide. Problem is: Obama is going to start a war(or similar) and cancel elections. That is his only chance. I would be suprised if Obama makes it to the debates.
Ol'bama isn't smart enough to figure out what to do next.
I've been thinking the same thing, and I hope we're right. I want to see Obama, the Congressional Democrats, and all their political ideas, completely and totally repudiated!!
question: If Romney wins by that much (8-10) how much of a “coat tail” effect will that have in the House/Senate races?
Anyone care to guess?