Think of the average nincompoop.
Those people only really decide who to vote for in the final few weeks based on who they think is going to win because they simply want to feel good.
Nincompoops decide a close election and the MSM with their slanted polls know it.
Agreed. The polls are being used to try to disqualify Romney before the debates even start. The media hopes it is a self-fulfilling prophesy. Only our side can make sure it is not by working hard, talking to our friends and colleagues, and voting.
I have no doubt this race is tight, and I think Obama likely has a slight edge at this moment in the key swing states, but he also is sitting well below 50%, and Romney has a clear path to win. I think these polls are under-measuring enthusiasm and turnout on our side. There is no less motivation today than in 2010.
I think they are also over-estimating Democrat and leaning-Dem turnout, especially in the mid-western states, VA, and FL. There simply is not high enthusiasm for Obama, and it will impact turnout. They’ll get their base out, but not all the voters that came out last time. Some will stay home, or vote Romney.
If you remove all the top level results - national and state poll results, and look at all the underlying numbers, none of it looks good for Obama. He is down in all key groups - Jewish, Young, Catholic, etc. He is almost universally losing independent voters.
When you consider a motivated GOP base, a Romney majority of independents, and all the voter loses in key groups (not to mention changes in registration), it seems like a good scenario.
Yet, somehow the polls reported after going through the polling methodologies show a whole different picture.
Obama is going to lose by 8-10% of the vote.
How are independents actually defined by pollsters? Is it just anyone not registered D or R?
Poll ping.