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US House Chat
10/9/2012 | self

Posted on 10/09/2012 7:21:50 PM PDT by scrabblehack

You can't believe polls any more, especially those conducted at the CD level. Also we're not in a position to conduct one. So let's look at past results, primaries, funding levels, maybe even economic indicators (local unemployment rate, etc.) to get a grasp on the next Congress.


TOPICS: Campaign News; Polls; U.S. Congress
KEYWORDS: house; housechat

1 posted on 10/09/2012 7:21:53 PM PDT by scrabblehack
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To: scrabblehack; Impy; griswold3; afraidfortherepublic; MSF BU; centurion316; zendari; ...

Impy has done some impressive analysis for the California seats. Now that the races are set, let’s take a look at a few others.


2 posted on 10/09/2012 7:23:41 PM PDT by scrabblehack
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To: scrabblehack

AR-04: Obama lost this district 60-37. He lost the previous version 58-39, yet Mike Ross was able to hold it for the Democrats, winning unopposed in 2008 and 57-40 in 2010. This time out, Ross is not running. Tom Cotton (R) with a huge money advantage faces Gene Jeffress (D).

CO-03: Obama lost this district 50-48, and Scott Tipton’s previous district 50-47. In 2008, John Salazar ran well ahead of Obama 62-38, only to lose to Tipton 50-46 two years later. This year’s contest pits Tipton vs. Salvatore Pace.

CO-06: Obama won this district 54-45, although he lost Coffman’s old seat 53-46. Coffman ran well ahead of McCain in 2008, and widened his lead to 66-31 in 2010.

CO-07: Obama won this district 57-41 which is a couple of points closer than he won Perlmutter’s old district (59-40). Perlmutter ran 3.5 points ahead of Obama in ‘08, but his lead narrowed to 53-42 in 2010, so beer king Joe Coors needs to get a few more hops for the Republicans.


3 posted on 10/09/2012 7:42:34 PM PDT by scrabblehack
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To: scrabblehack

FL-02: Obama narrowly lost this district 52-47, which is a couple of points closer than Southerland’s (R) old district. Democrat Boyd won 62-38 in ‘08 but Southerland beat him 54-41 in ‘10. Southerland has a huge funding advantage over Al Lawson (D).

FL-06: Obama lost this seat 53-45, a few points closer than its predecessor seat. Ron DeSantis (R) faces Heather Beaven (D).

FL-07: Obama lost this seat 50-49, three points closer than its predecessor seat. Mica ran well ahead of McCain (62-38 in ‘08, and widened that lead to 69-31 in 2010 against none other than Heather Beaven.

FL-09: Obama won this seat 60-39 in 2008. If anyone other than Alan Grayson (D) were running in it, I’d say William “Todd” Long (R) didn’t have a chance. Grayson manages to offend easily, losing 56-38 in 2010 in a district which Obama won 53-47. Unfortunately Grayson has a huge funding advantage.


4 posted on 10/09/2012 8:04:03 PM PDT by scrabblehack
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To: scrabblehack

FL-10: Obama lost this district 52-47. Dan Webster won a less GOP-friendly version of it in ‘10.

FL-13: Obama won this district 51-47. Bill Young’s (R) old district had the same score.

FL-18: Some Senate seats don’t cost this much. Lt. Col. Allen West’s (R) campaign has raised over $10M to Patrick Murphy’s (D) $2.4M. Obama narrowly won this seat and its predecessor.

FL-20: Alcee Hastings’ (D) seat won by Obama 80-19 wouldn’t get mentioned but Randall Terry (No Party Affiliation) is running. Is that the Randall Terry?

FL-22: I recall this was West’s original district. It was won by Obama 57-43. This race features Adam Hasner (R) versus Lois Frankel (D).

FL-26: David Rivera (R) gets a rematch with Joe Garcia (D).
Garcia’s campaign has raised more money. This version of the seat was a 50-50 tossup for Obama-McCain; the 2010 version was 50-49 for McCain, but Rivera won it 52-43.

FL-27: Obama lost this district 51-49 but Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R) won handily in a district that Obama won 51-49.
Manny Yevancey runs for the Democrats.


5 posted on 10/10/2012 4:41:28 PM PDT by scrabblehack
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To: scrabblehack

GA-02: Sanford Bishop (D) narrowly won a seat in ‘10 51-49 that Obama had won 54-46 in ‘08. This version is more Democrat friendly...Obama won it 58-42.

GA-12: Barrow (D) ran 12 points ahead of Obama in ‘08 and then 2 points ahead of him in ‘10. Redistricting has changed this seat from 54-45 Obama to 56-44 McCain.

IA-03: Obama won this seat 52-46, and this version is slightly more Republican than either Boswell’s (D) or Latham’s (R) old seat. Latham has the funding advantage and showed stronger support in 2008 and 2010.

IL-06: Obama won this seat 51-47, but then he won Roskam’s (R) old seat 56-43. Roskam has the funding advantage over Leslie Coolidge (D).

IL-08: Obama won this seat 62-37 and the previous version 56-43. Tammy Duckworth (D) has a strong funding advantage over Joe Walsh (R). He narrowly beat Melissa Bean in 2010.

IL-10: Obama won this seat 63-36 although he won the previous version 61-38. Dold (R) has the funding advantage over Brad Schneider (D).

IL-11: Obama won this seat 61-37 and its previous version 53-45. Judy Biggert rolled to victory in 2010, but has only a tiny funding advantage over Bill Foster (D).


6 posted on 10/10/2012 5:12:16 PM PDT by scrabblehack
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To: scrabblehack

IL-12: Obama won this seat 55-44, but it’s open. Jason Plummer has a funding advantage over substitute candidate Bill Enyart (D).

IL-13: There’s a similar story here, except that the Republicans have the substitute candidate. Tim Johnson said he would not have dropped out if he didn’t think the GOP could hold the seat. Rodney Davis (R) faces David Gill (D).

IL-14: Obama narrowly won this seat 51-48, but Hultgren (R) has a huge funding advantage over Dennis Anderson (D).

IL-16: Similar story here but Kinzinger’s (R) funding advantage over Wanda Rohl (D) is even bigger.

IL-17: Obama won 60-38 here. Bobby Schilling (R) has a difficult fight against Cheri Bustos (D).

IN-02: Obama narrowly carried this seat, but incumbent Joe Donnelly didn’t think he could hold it. Jackie Walorski (R) faces Brendan Mullen (D).

IN-08: Obama narrowly lost this seat; Dave Crooks (D) has raised a substantial amount against Bucshon (R).

KY-06: This is the only seat in the state that looks competitive. Garland “Andy” Barr (R) challenges Ben Chandler (D).


7 posted on 10/11/2012 4:19:27 PM PDT by scrabblehack
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To: scrabblehack; raccoonradio; Former War Criminal

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2815856/posts

MA-04: The key here wasn’t Fall River but Cambridge. Joe Kennedy III takes a huge funding advantage over Sean Bielat, in a district that went 60-38 for Obama.

MD-06: Roscoe Bartlett will be hard-pressed to hold this seat. The district has gone from 58-40 against Obama in ‘08 to 56-42 in favor. Also John Delaney (D) has a huge funding advantage.


8 posted on 10/11/2012 4:36:42 PM PDT by scrabblehack
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To: scrabblehack

ME-02: I don’t really expect this one to flip, but Kevin Raye (R) challenges Michaud (D).

MI-01: Voters in the U-P and U-LP threw out Bart Stupak two years ago. They had voted for Obama 50-48 in this district but I don’t expect McDowell (D) to upset Benishek (R).

MI-03: Steve Pestka (D) challenges Justin Amash (R).

MI-05: Dale Kildee (D) is leaving to spend more time with his family, but his nephew wants to be his successor. Obama won here 63-35. Slezak (R) runs for the GOP.

MI-11: Due to some major mistakes in filing nomination papers, Thad McCotter has stepped down. Kerry Bentivolio runs against underfunded Dave Curson (D) for the unexpired term, and then against Syed Taj (D) for the full term.
Taj has outraised him; Curson has barely raised anything. Obama won this seat 50-48.

MN-01: Obama won this seat 51-47; Walz (D) defends for the Democrats against Al Quist (R).

MN-06: Michelle Bachmann (R) brings $18M to the table against Jim Graves’ (D) measly $578K.

MN-07: Obama lost this seat 50-47; Peterson (D) defends for the Democrats against Byberg (R).

MO-02: Ann Wagner (R) should hold this seat as Todd Akin’s successor against Glenn Koenen (D).


9 posted on 10/12/2012 4:32:09 PM PDT by scrabblehack
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To: scrabblehack

MT-01 (I prefer to not call it MT-AL)....Obama narrowly lost here 49-47. Steve Daines (R) has a huge funding advantage over Kim Gillan (D).

NC-07: Mike McIntyre goes from a seat that was 52-47 McCain to one that is 58-42 McCain. David Rouzer (R) runs for the GOP.

NC-08: Similarly, Larry Kissell goes from a 53-47 Obama seat to a 57-42 McCain seat. Richard Hudson (R) runs for the GOP.

NC-11: This seat went from 52-47 McCain to 58-40 McCain. Heath Shuler knew enough to not run again. Mark Meadows (R) runs against Hayden Rogers (D).

NC-13: This seat went from 59-40 Obama to 54-45 McCain. Brad Miller (D) dropped out and Charles Malone (D) isn’t campaigning much either. George Holding (R) runs for the GOP.

ND-01: Obama lost here 53-45; Berg is running for Senate; Pam Gulleson (D) holds a slight funding advantage over Kevin Cramer (R).

NH: Obama won both these seats but R’s took them two years later. Ann Kuster (D) has a strong funding advantage over Charlie Bass (R) in the 2nd; Guinta (R) holds the funding advantage over Shea-Porter in the 1st.


10 posted on 10/12/2012 4:46:11 PM PDT by scrabblehack
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To: scrabblehack; Clintonfatigued; AuH2ORepublican; fieldmarshaldj; BillyBoy; justiceseeker93; ...

Spate of polls in Florida from a firm called St Pete Polls.

I’ve been figuring on only 3 seats that could go either way

In the 18th Allen West sports a healthy lead of 12 points.

In the 22nd Hasner and Frankel are tied (Hasner up by .3)!

And in the 26nd where I’m very worried about scandal plagued Rivera he leads by 3.

But they have rat Al Lawson surprisingly leading Steve Souherland by 1 in the 2nd.

And in the 9th they have moonbat Grayson up only 3! I thought we blew this one by nominating the wrong candidate

http://www.stpetepolls.org/surveys/election_2012_october3_congress_general.html

In the IL races 6 seats are in play. I believe Roskam, Kingzinger and Hultgren are safe.

In the 8th Walsh unfortunately will be bounced even though this is probably the most Republican of the 3 Chicago suburban seats in play.

The 10th and 11th are close, I think Dold will lose but Biggert will win.

The 13th, GOP edge though I think they added a little nasty to this district I’d guess it was still a Bush seat. The rat David Gill is a perennial loser.

In 12th, most give The Republican Plummer the slight edge in taking this long rat held seat. The last time a Republican won it, 1942. Since it’s been held by just 2 rats, Mel Price and Jerry Costello.

And that leaves the 17th, coin flip. I’m rooting hard for Schilling.

You omitted the most competitive seat in MN, the rat-leaning but GOP trending 8th where freshman giant killer Chip Cravaack faces former rat congressman from the 70’s Rick Nolan. A recent SurveyUSA poll gives Nolan, a 1 point lead.


11 posted on 10/12/2012 6:14:49 PM PDT by Impy (Don't call me red.)
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To: randita

Ping


12 posted on 10/12/2012 6:16:31 PM PDT by Impy (Don't call me red.)
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To: Impy

Yeah...if it were Alabama I wouldn’t have missed it...a lot of this is labor intensive for me.

NJ-03: Obama won this one 51-48, and Runyan (R) won in ‘10 50-47, and this time against Shelley Adler (D).

NM-02: McCain won this seat 50-48 but Pearce (R) has a huge funding advantage over Evelyn Erhard (D).

NV: I’m not sure what to think here. Obama won NV-02 by 49-48; Amodei (R) won the special election 58-36, and Dean Heller won comfortably before that. Obama won NV-03 by 54-45, slightly closer than Joe Heck’s (R) old district, which he narrowly won in 2010. Obama won NV-04 56-41, but Danny Tarkanian (R) has a chance...Steven Horsford (D) has outraised him only slightly.

NY-01: Obama won this seat 51-48, but that’s a point closer than he won the 2008 version. Altschuler (R) is back for a rematch against Bishop (D).

NY-04: Obama won this district 55-44 compared to Carolyn McCarthy’s (D) previous seat which was 58-41 Obama. She won by only 54-46 in 2010, but she has a huge funding advantage over Frank Scaturro (Conservative) and Francis Becker (Republican).

NY-11: McCain won this seat 51-48 and its predecessor 51-49...Grimm (R) has a large funding advantage over Mark Murphy (D).

NY-17: Obama’s margin in this district was 58-41 compared to 62-38 for the old seat. Nita Lowey (D) won in ‘10 by what do you know? 62-38. Joe Carvin (R) brings a big chunk of change to the table; Lowey has somewhat more.

NY-18: Nan Hayworth (R) gets a 52-47 Obama seat instead of a 51-48 Obama seat against Sean Maloney (D).

NY-19: Chris Gibson (R) gets a 53-45 Obama seat instead of a 51-48 Obama seat against Julian Schreibman (D).

NY-21: Bill Owens (D) is in a 52-47 Obama seat, same as in the 2000’s - Matt Doheny (R) is back for a rematch.

NY-23: Tom Reed (R) is in a 50-49 Obama seat instead of a 51-48 McCain seat. He did win 57-43 in 2010. Nate Shinagawa runs for the Democrats.

NY-24: Ann Buerkle (R) is in a 56-42 Obama seat instead of 56-43. She just barely won in ‘10. Dan Maffei (D) is back and well-funded.

NY-25: Lois Slaughter (D) loses 10 Obama points due to reapportionment. At 59-40 Obama though, it’s probably not enough. She won 65-35 in ‘10.

NY-27: Kathy Hochul (D) gets a 54-44 McCain seat instead of 52-46. She has a huge funding advantage over Chris Collins (R).


13 posted on 10/13/2012 7:08:41 PM PDT by scrabblehack
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To: scrabblehack

OH-06: Bill Johnson gets a 53-45 McCain seat instead of 50-48 McCain. The other Charlie Wilson (D) fights for the Democrats.

OH-07: Gibbs (R) gets a slightly less McCain seat 51-47 instead of 52-45. Joyce Healy-Abrams (D) runs for the Democrats.

OH-09: Joe “The Plumber” Wurzelbacher (R) runs against Marcy Kaptur (D) in a 67-32 Obama seat that was 62-36 Obama in the 2000’s.

OH-10: Mike Turner gets a 49-49 seat (right now I’m too lazy to look up whether McCain or Obama won) instead of a 51-47 Obama seat. Sharon Neuhardt (D) runs for the Democrats.

OH-14: David Joyce (R) tries to defend Steven Latourette’s 49-49 seat that was 49-49. Dale Blanchard (D) runs for the Democrats.

OH-16: Jim Renacci (R) gets a 51-47 McCain seat instead of 50-48. Betty Sutton (D) is accustomed to 57-42 Obama.


14 posted on 10/13/2012 7:22:28 PM PDT by scrabblehack
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To: scrabblehack

OK-02: This seat was and still is 66-34 McCain. Markwayne Mullin (R) runs against Rob Wallace (D) to succeed Dan Boren (D).

OR-04: This seat was and still is 54-45 Obama. Arthur Robinson (R) has raised a substantial amount of money against Peter DeFazio (D).

PA-03: Mike Kelly (R) gets a 52-46 McCain seat instead of a 49-49 seat. Melissa Eaton (D) runs for the Democrats.

PA-06: Jim Gerlach (R) gets a 53-46 Obama seat instead of 58-41 Obama. Manan Trivedi (D) runs for the Democrats.

PA-07: Patrick Meehan gets a 51-48 Obama seat instead of a 56-43 seat. George Badey (D) runs for the Democrats.

PA-08: Fitzpatrick (R) gets a 53-46 Obama seat instead of 54-45. Kathy Boockvar (D) runs for the Democrats.

PA-12: Mark Critz (D) gets a 54-45 McCain seat instead of 50-49. Keith Rothfus (R) runs for the GOP...he narrowly lost to Jason Altmire in ‘10.

TN-04: There have been some accusations about Scott DesJarlais (R) having a mistress. Richard Stewart (D) runs for the Democrats.

TN-09: This seat was and is 77-22 Obama. George Flinn (R) has outraised Steve Cohen (D) though. Charlotte Bergmann managed only 25% against Cohen in ‘10.

TX-14: Ron Paul’s open seat went 57-42 McCain. Randy Weber (R) runs against former Representative Nick Lampson (D)>

TX-23: Francisco “Quico” Canseco defends a 50-49 Obama seat that was 51-48 Obama. Pete “The Rooster” Gallego (D) runs for the Democrats.

Sadly the new seats will be split 2-2.

UT-04: Matheson’s (D) old seat was 57-39 McCain, and his new seat is 56-41 McCain...Mia Love (R) runs for the Republicans.

VA-02: Scott Rigell (R) gets a 50-49 Obama seat instead of 51-49. Paul Hirschbiel (D) runs for the Democrats.

VA-05: This seat was and is 51-48 McCain. John Douglass (D) tries to upset incumbent Robert Hurt (R).

VA-09: McCain won this seat convincingly 58-40, but Anthony Flaccavento (D) has spent over $300K.

VA-11: Gerald Connolly (D) gets a more favorable seat, going from 57-42 Obama to 62-37. He narrowly won in ‘10. Chris Perkins (R) runs for the GOP.

WA-01: This seat has gone from 62-36 Obama to 56-42. Jay Inslee (D) won by only 58-42. Inslee is running for Governor this time. Suzan DelBene (D) has pulled out all the stops for the Rats, spending over $2M. John Koster (R) has spent almost $400K though which is high for a district like this.

WA-06: This seat was and is 57-41 Obama. Norm Dicks has retired but he ran a point ahead of Obama in ‘10. Bill Driscoll (R) faces Derek Kilmer (D). Both have raised about $900K, and Driscoll has outspent Kilmer.

WV-03: This seat was and is 56-42 McCain. The incumbent is Nick Rahall (D) who faces Richard Snuffer (R).

WI-01: Rob Zerban (D) has spent over $700K trying to upset Paul Ryan (R), who has spent nearly $4M but of course is not devoting full time to this campaign. It was and is a 51-48 Obama seat, although Ryan has won it comfortably.

WI-07: Sean Duffy (R) gets a 53-45 Obama seat instead of 56-43. Pat Kreitlow (D) runs for the Democrats.

WI-08: This seat was and is 54-45 Obama. Reid Ribble (R) defends against Jamie Wall (D).


15 posted on 10/13/2012 8:16:11 PM PDT by scrabblehack
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To: scrabblehack

Noteworthy ad buys:

CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND - C00504530
View Download FEC-830711 Form F24N - filed 10/31/2012 - 24 HOUR NOTICE

1. Opposes Candidate: Shelley Adler
Office Sought: House of Representatives, New Jersey District 03
Payee: American Media & Advocacy Group
Date Expended = 10/30/2012 Amount Expended = $285564.00
Purpose: TV/Media Placement

2. Opposes Candidate: Brad Schneider
Office Sought: House of Representatives, Illinois District 10
Payee: American Media & Advocacy Group
Date Expended = 10/30/2012 Amount Expended = $787057.00
Purpose: TV/Media Placement

3. Opposes Candidate: Krysten Sinema
Office Sought: House of Representatives, Arizona District 09
Payee: American Media & Advocacy Group
Date Expended = 10/30/2012 Amount Expended = $527857.92
Purpose: TV/Media Placement

4. Opposes Candidate: Betty Sutton
Office Sought: House of Representatives, Ohio District 16
Payee: American Media & Advocacy Group
Date Expended = 10/30/2012 Amount Expended = $264058.00
Purpose: TV/Media Placement

5. Opposes Candidate: Gary McDowell
Office Sought: House of Representatives, Michigan District 01
Payee: American Media & Advocacy Group
Date Expended = 10/30/2012 Amount Expended = $220163.60
Purpose: TV/Media Placement

6. Opposes Candidate: Lois Capps
Office Sought: House of Representatives, California District 24
Payee: American Media & Advocacy Group
Date Expended = 10/30/2012 Amount Expended = $88230.80
Purpose: TV/Media Placement

7. Opposes Candidate: John Barrow
Office Sought: House of Representatives, Georgia District 12
Payee: American Media & Advocacy Group
Date Expended = 10/30/2012 Amount Expended = $176112.00
Purpose: TV/Media Placement

8. Opposes Candidate: Brad Schneider
Office Sought: House of Representatives, Illinois District 10
Payee: Angler LLC
Date Expended = 10/30/2012 Amount Expended = $25000.00
Purpose: Web video

9. Opposes Candidate: Krysten Sinema
Office Sought: House of Representatives, Arizona District 09
Payee: Angler LLC
Date Expended = 10/30/2012 Amount Expended = $25000.00
Purpose: Web video

10. Opposes Candidate: Brad Schneider
Office Sought: House of Representatives, Illinois District 10
Payee: Revolution Media Group
Date Expended = 10/30/2012 Amount Expended = $17364.92
Purpose: TV/Media Production

11. Opposes Candidate: Krysten Sinema
Office Sought: House of Representatives, Arizona District 09
Payee: Revolution Media Group
Date Expended = 10/30/2012 Amount Expended = $18702.96
Purpose: TV/Media Production

12. Opposes Candidate: Krysten Sinema
Office Sought: House of Representatives, Arizona District 09
Payee: Revolution Media Group
Date Expended = 10/30/2012 Amount Expended = $1188.00
Purpose: TV/Media Production

13. Opposes Candidate: John Barrow
Office Sought: House of Representatives, Georgia District 12
Payee: Something Else Strategies
Date Expended = 10/30/2012 Amount Expended = $15000.00
Purpose: TV/Media Production

14. Opposes Candidate: Gary McDowell
Office Sought: House of Representatives, Michigan District 01
Payee: Upgrade Films
Date Expended = 10/30/2012 Amount Expended = $14979.41
Purpose: TV/Media Production

LCV VICTORY FUND - C00486845
View Download FEC-830658 Form F24N - filed 10/31/2012 - 24 HOUR NOTICE
5. Opposes Candidate: Francisco Canseco
Office Sought: House of Representatives, Texas District 23
Payee: Waterfront Strategies
Date Expended = 10/30/2012 Amount Expended = $222135.38
Purpose: TV Buy

5. Opposes Candidate: Ann Marie Buerkle
Office Sought: House of Representatives, New York District 24
Payee: Waterfront Strategies
Date Expended = 10/30/2012 Amount Expended = $187217.00
Purpose: TV Buy

REPUBLICAN SUPER PAC INC - C00496349
View Download FEC-830543 Form F24N - filed 10/31/2012 - 24 HOUR NOTICE

1. Supports Candidate: ARTHUR BROUHARD ROBINSON (H0OR04081)
Office Sought: House of Representatives, Oregon District 04
Payee: Mark it Red LLC
Date Expended = 10/30/2012 Amount Expended = $57050.00
Purpose: tv ad

BLACK AMERICA’S POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE - C00300921
View Download FEC-830489 Form F24N - filed 10/31/2012 - 24 HOUR NOTICE

1. Supports Candidate: Allen West (H8FL22038)
Office Sought: House of Representatives, Florida District 18
Payee: Cox Media
Date Expended = 10/30/2012 Amount Expended = $11460.00
Purpose: Radio Advertisment

2. Supports Candidate: MIA LOVE (H2UT04023)
Office Sought: House of Representatives, Utah District 04
Payee: Cumulus Broadcasting
Date Expended = 10/30/2012 Amount Expended = $5015.00
Purpose: Radio Advertisment

3. Supports Candidate: Allen West (H8FL22038)
Office Sought: House of Representatives, Florida District 18
Payee: WSWN-AM
Date Expended = 10/30/2012 Amount Expended = $5000.00
Purpose: Radio Advertisment


16 posted on 10/31/2012 12:46:40 PM PDT by mrsmith (Dumb sluts: Lifeblood of the Media, Backbone of the Democrat Party!)
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