Impy has done some impressive analysis for the California seats. Now that the races are set, let’s take a look at a few others.
AR-04: Obama lost this district 60-37. He lost the previous version 58-39, yet Mike Ross was able to hold it for the Democrats, winning unopposed in 2008 and 57-40 in 2010. This time out, Ross is not running. Tom Cotton (R) with a huge money advantage faces Gene Jeffress (D).
CO-03: Obama lost this district 50-48, and Scott Tipton’s previous district 50-47. In 2008, John Salazar ran well ahead of Obama 62-38, only to lose to Tipton 50-46 two years later. This year’s contest pits Tipton vs. Salvatore Pace.
CO-06: Obama won this district 54-45, although he lost Coffman’s old seat 53-46. Coffman ran well ahead of McCain in 2008, and widened his lead to 66-31 in 2010.
CO-07: Obama won this district 57-41 which is a couple of points closer than he won Perlmutter’s old district (59-40). Perlmutter ran 3.5 points ahead of Obama in ‘08, but his lead narrowed to 53-42 in 2010, so beer king Joe Coors needs to get a few more hops for the Republicans.
Spate of polls in Florida from a firm called St Pete Polls.
I’ve been figuring on only 3 seats that could go either way
In the 18th Allen West sports a healthy lead of 12 points.
In the 22nd Hasner and Frankel are tied (Hasner up by .3)!
And in the 26nd where I’m very worried about scandal plagued Rivera he leads by 3.
But they have rat Al Lawson surprisingly leading Steve Souherland by 1 in the 2nd.
And in the 9th they have moonbat Grayson up only 3! I thought we blew this one by nominating the wrong candidate
http://www.stpetepolls.org/surveys/election_2012_october3_congress_general.html
In the IL races 6 seats are in play. I believe Roskam, Kingzinger and Hultgren are safe.
In the 8th Walsh unfortunately will be bounced even though this is probably the most Republican of the 3 Chicago suburban seats in play.
The 10th and 11th are close, I think Dold will lose but Biggert will win.
The 13th, GOP edge though I think they added a little nasty to this district I’d guess it was still a Bush seat. The rat David Gill is a perennial loser.
In 12th, most give The Republican Plummer the slight edge in taking this long rat held seat. The last time a Republican won it, 1942. Since it’s been held by just 2 rats, Mel Price and Jerry Costello.
And that leaves the 17th, coin flip. I’m rooting hard for Schilling.
You omitted the most competitive seat in MN, the rat-leaning but GOP trending 8th where freshman giant killer Chip Cravaack faces former rat congressman from the 70’s Rick Nolan. A recent SurveyUSA poll gives Nolan, a 1 point lead.