“Oh what a tangled web we weave,
When first we practice to deceive”
Sir Walter Scott (1771-1832)
Posted on 10/09/2012 8:28:47 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Fueling his current polling surge, Mitt Romney's numbers with indies are just getting remarkably good.
a. IBD/ITP poll released today: Romney 52% Obama 34%.
b. Pew poll, released yesterday: Romney 46% Obama 42%.
c. Politico/GW poll, released yesterday: Romney 51% Obama 35%.
d. CNN, released last week: Romney 49% Obama 41%.
e. National Journal, released October 3: Romney 49% Obama 41%.
Now having said that, Romney has done well this entire cycle with independents, but not enough to overcome turnout models that suggested much, much higher Democratic turnout.
But now he's killing it so soundly that it's enough to overcome higher Democratic turnout. In fact, in ARG's poll of Ohio today, Dems are sampled at +9% over Republicans, but Romney wins indies by 20%, which is enough to inch ahead, overall, 48%-47%.
Some of this is a debate bounce, but as I've said, one of the most under-reported stories this cycle has been Romney's continual lead with independents. That always assured this would be a close election, regardless.
In fact, Barack Obama won indies by 8% in 2008. Romney is easily hitting that number in the most recent batch of polls.
Let’s don’t count our chickens just yet.........don’t want to jinx it—LOL!
“Oh what a tangled web we weave,
When first we practice to deceive”
Sir Walter Scott (1771-1832)
Yes, independent party affiliation has grown considerably since 2008. More gains than Republicans. Democrats are way way down.
We need to win the Senate.
I’M DOING TO DO MY OWN UNSKEWING THE POLLS USING RAS’ PARTY ID BBREAKDOWN OF R-36.8, D-34.2, I-29.0 UNDECIDEDS EXCLUDED
a. IBD/ITP poll released today: Romney 52% Obama 34%.
36.8 x 95% + 34.2 x 8% + 29 x 59% = 54.81 (BEST CASE SCENARIO)
b. Pew poll, released yesterday: Romney 46% Obama 42%.
36.8 x 95% + 34.2 x 8% + 29 x 52% = 52.8% (WORST CASE SCENARIO)
c. Politico/GW poll, released yesterday: Romney 51% Obama 35%.
36.8 x 95% + 34.2 x 8% + 29 x 58% = 54.5%
d. CNN, released last week: Romney 49% Obama 41%.
36.8 x 95% + 34.2 x 8% + 29 x 54% = 53.4%
e. National Journal, released October 3: Romney 49% Obama 41%.
36.8 x 95% + 34.2 x 8% + 29 x 54% = 53.4%
These results are what the LSM truly fears. My prediction still stands at R/R- 53%, O/B- 45%.
Yeah, well Romney wants to kill Big Bird. I don’t care what the polls say. Obama’s gonna win the day on that one issue alone!
Everyone on food stamps and getting government goodies will stream in like Ratatouille to vote in mass.
Obama is going to Lose! Quick! Get to the polls!
If Romney is up THAT much with Independents its nite nite for Obama..pack your bags and move on to your mega mansion in Hawaii cause he’s DONE
I don’t see anyone doing that, chill.
I, for one, have to admit that I was wrong about Romney. He wasn’t my choice for the nominee and I poo-poo’d all those who said he was the only one who could beat Obama. As I look at things now - they were right. I don’t think any of the other candidates could have cleaned his clock like Mitt did. Maybe Newt, if it was a good day for him. Sadly, he just had way too much baggage to win the nomination and women just didn’t like him.
Having said that - I have to admit that I was wrong about Mittens. Its also helpful that he has some rich buddies because of what we are up against.
Ras is using D+3
I agree. heads down and to work. it ain’t over until its over...
Yep, I’m aware of that. Which is why Ras should stick to his Party ID model or least adjust it to even or GOP +1.
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