this bottom lines it nicely. It has always been about Ohio. Same as in 2004, and when it went D in 06, it was clear that no Republican could win it in 2008. obama happened to need it less, b/c he cut into GOP terrain. But with the “normal” GOP map back where it belongs....it’s all about Ohio again.
Of course, if the national trend continues and pulls Romney up, then Romney will likely do pretty much what obama did in 2008, ie, he will pick up those normally D states such as PA. MI, NV and so on.
in almost every specific group, except Blacks, Obama is down at least 10% from 2008.
some groups, like Catholics and Jews,
are down closer to 20%.
...and, many who would vote for him...
won’t even bother going to the polls.
it was already a landslide against Obama.
post-debate, is simply bigger.
the ONLY concern i have, is the 92% drop in military votes.
it is mind-numbing, that Boehner and the GOP,
are doing nothing about the blatant fraud and law-breaking.
I live in PA and I think the state is a toss-up. Suburbs and rural areas will go with Romney, but the larger urban areas may not. Democratically controlled and still heavily union. Very hard to vote in a Republican.
I live close to Pittsburgh which has a large senior population. All the Dems have to do is say Romney will take away SS and Medicare, and the older folks will flock to Obama. What may possibly change this is that my generation, the baby boomers, are now seniors. I’d like to think we know better than the still older generations.
Oh, and don’t forget all those free Obamaphones. You know there will be quite a few who will vote for Obama just because he gives them all that “free stuff.”
I’m agreed on state picks, that’s the breakdown.
“As such, in order to win Ohio Obama would have to win the popular vote by more than 2.6%”
This would suggest that if Obama wins the popular vote by 1.6% he would lose Ohio. I know you’re not drawing a hard line on that. I just think that the fundamental analysis of close states like Ohio does not come down to a comparison to 2008.
4 terrible years and the recent debate have changed the structural nature of people’s choice when it comes to the 10% or so that are actually making a choice.
Obama is an entirely different brand now. In Bush’s case in election 2 ... he was still the Bush everyone knew ... it was just a case of whether he was more popular or less popular after 4 years.
I think people are now making up their minds about whether Obama is the SAME man as the man (or illusion) selected in 2008. So I think this is more of a binary choice for the uncommitted. They are not saying ‘do I like him more or less now’ ... they are saying ‘fraud?’.
That was the primary thing Mitt exposed. Then, in addition, Mitt was impressive, took care of a half billion in negative trash adds, and offered himself as a more than acceptable alternative to ‘fraud.’
So I think the choice for the as-yet-uncommitted, individually and as a group, is not an apples to apples, continuum style comparison to 2008. It’s “OK, who is this guy, and is he actually the same man I projected him to be in 2008, or is he the meek, semi intelligent petulant tongue tied arrogant teen ager I now see before me?”
That said - on state breakdowns I’m dead on with ya.
A sound assessment at this point.
I vote in Pennsylvania so I’d really like to see Romney win here.
It’s possible, certainly more so than it was in 2008.
If it happens it could set off a wave election rolling West making the Romney victory nationwide a rout.
You give a solid prediction and pretty much just as I see it. If Romney has a strong finish he could pick up IA, NH, NV too. If Obama has a strong finish he could take OH and possibly others for a win. A close race.
Based on this, it won't be close.
Comment on getting NE’s split vote back got me thinking.
In the event it does get down to a couple of electoral votes, is there any congressional district in Maine that could be carried by Romney? Or are all the rugged, individual Nor-Easterners drinking double lattes now?
So, you are new here.
So, we couldn't tell.
So, you begin your first post with so.
So, everything after that is suspect.
Can I ax you a question, ya know what I mean, when in the hell did "so" become the beginning of every NY comment?
I think Romney will take Iowa and New Hampshire. Nevada seems unlikely.
I would also just like to add that today RCP moved PA from “leans Obama” to Toss-up! :D
Romney/Ryan will win and win big !!
Here is the way it will go.
Real Clear Politics has R/R with a solid 181 EV.
R/R will also win:
FL 29 EV
NC 15 EV
VA 13 EV
MO 10 EV
IA 6 EV
CO 9 EV
WI 10 EV
NH 4 EV
NV 6 EV
This will give R/R a total of 283 EV. Throw in OH with it’s 18 EV and you have a landslide with 301 EV !!
DU Dummies have been bragging about how they troll at FR.
Welcome. You’re probably going to want to change your screen name eventually. You certainly aren’t the first to use a candidate, but candidates come and go, and hopefully you’ll stick around.