Skip to comments.State of the Race
Posted on 10/12/2012 9:19:36 PM PDT by NY4Romney
So the race for the White House has definitely become much easier for us in the past week and a half...and the VP debate probably didn't do anything to help Obama. After analyzing the polls and history, I think we can safely say that the electoral vote count is:
I give Romney all McCain states plus Indiana, Nebraska 2, NC, FL, VA, and Colorado. I think Romney will definitely win those, meaning he needs only 13 more electoral votes with theses states left: PA, WI, MI, NH, Iowa, Nevada, and Ohio.
These are the states Romney needs to focus on. If he wins one of MI, Ohio, or PA he wins and the rest don't matter. Or he can win a combo of the others. I think of all these states, the most plausible path to victory is for him to just win Ohio. I feel completely confident that if Romney just wins Ohio we win the election. The polls are close there, I have no idea how things look on the ground, but I know that the vast majority of Ohio borders red states - huge borders with Kentucky, WV, and Indiana. They hate Obama and I think might be enough to overcome Cayuga county and win this for us,
Please please, everyone work on Ohio!! Make calls, volunteer, fly to the state - just make sure we win Ohio and we win this election.
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The only possible way Obama can win Ohio is if Romney goes on stage in the next debate and beheads a puppy while pushing an old lady down a flight of steps.
Give Romney +1 in Maine. One of their splits looks likely to break for him
don’t forget ME2 is in play.
No. Assuming Romney wins back the one electoral vote O won in Nebraska, and assuming he will win Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, Virginia and Colorado,
Romney only needs 12 more to get to 269.
The GOP will control more state legislatures to break the tie.
If Romney then loses Ohio, he still wins by replacing Ohio with Iowa and Nevada to get to 269.
This is why it is so important that Romney runs strong in CO, IA, NV and gets the Omaha area in Nebraska.
If he does, he can LOSE Ohio and STILL win.
Iowa + Nevada + one of the Maine CDs = 13 , for a total of 270.
NH 4 NV 6 IA 6 = 16
Iowa and Nevada could also wun it, but I feel Ohio is more plausible - they just seem to be more receptive to Romneys message. Nevadas issue is that its full of hispanic voters which tend to lean to Obama, though large mormon population could help. The Iowa issue is that they have the bond of being Obamas launching pad. Definately a good plan B though, but I think if we win Iowa wed win ohio anyway so its a moot point