Free Republic
Browse · Search
GOP Club
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Report: Obama campaign turning grim on Florida, Virginia, North Carolina and Colorado?
Hot Air ^ | October 17, 2012 | Allahpundit

Posted on 10/17/2012 3:12:12 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

You need to read way, way, way down into this National Journal piece to find the key bit, but it’s worth it. Says Jay Cost, “I’ve never seen anybody bury a lede like Major Garrett here.”

Let’s bring this treasure chest up to the surface:

What also became clear after the dust began to settle from the rumble on Long Island was the electoral map has narrowed and Obama’s team, while conceding nothing publicly, is circling the wagons around Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. Plouffe said that Obama remains strong in all four states, but he would not discuss the specifics of internal polling or voter-contact analytics, saying only that Obama has “significant leads” in all four places.

It is uncharacteristic of Team Obama to concede any terrain, but Plouffe offered no such assurances about Obama’s position in North Carolina, Virginia, or Florida. Romney advisers have seen big gains in all three states and now consider wins likely, although not guaranteed, in all three. They are similarly upbeat about prospects in Colorado but not confident enough to predict victory. That Plouffe left Colorado off his list of states where Obama’s leading and can withstand a Romney surge might be telling…

Romney, according to RCP, has 191 electoral votes. If you add Florida (29), North Carolina (15), and Virginia (13), that brings his total to 248 electoral votes. Add Colorado (9) –which neither campaign is prepared to claim or concede–and Romney’s total rises to 257 electoral votes. If Romney wins Ohio (18) in addition to these states, he would have 275 electoral votes. If Romney loses Ohio, he would need to win Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire to reach 273 electoral votes.

Meanwhile, from CNN’s Peter Hamby:

Peter Hamby✔ @PeterHambyCNN

The buzz from Columbus: Ohio race was reset by Romney's first debate (and he may have even been up heading into debate #2)

17 Oct 12 Reply Retweet Favorite

It’s not that Romney has insurmountable leads in FL, VA, and NC, it’s that Team O has to decide how to allocate what’s left of its campaign treasury down the stretch and there are better bets for them than those three states. Triage, in other words. Mitt’s up 4.7 points on average in North Carolina, which would be tough for O to make up, and 2.5 points in Florida, which might be doable but would be hugely expensive in terms of reserving enough ad time to make a dent. I’m a little surprised to see Virginia included — O actually leads there by eight-tenths of a point, although Romney’s (narrowly) won the last three polls, so maybe Obama’s campaign figures it’s not worth resisting that momentum in a state they don’t really need. They do kind of need Colorado, though, and that actually looks tougher than Virginia for them at the moment: Romney leads by seven-tenths of a point and has won six of the nine polls taken since the first debate. If I had to guess, I’d bet they’re looking at Virginia and Colorado now as an either/or situation; if Romney’s lead opens a bit in one rather than the other, that one will be written off and an investment made in the closer state.

Via Gateway Pundit, here’s Karl Rove with a fun fact about that blockbuster Gallup poll today. The most important set of polls in the race thus far, I think, will be the next ones out of Ohio incorporating reaction to last night’s debate. I don’t expect much to change, but if one candidate suddenly picks up a few points, the path-to-270 strategizing is going to change instantly, and maybe dramatically.

Update: Changed the headline from “backing away from” to “turning grim on.” Garrett’s piece implies that Team O might cut those states loose, but doesn’t cite anyone clearly saying that. Read between the lines, though.

(VIDEO AT LINK)


TOPICS: Colorado; Florida; North Carolina; Virginia; Campaign News; Polls
KEYWORDS: colorado; debate; debates; florida; northcarolina; obama; polls; romney; toast; virginia
Ohio's in the bag, too. I wouldn't be surprised to see Iowa gravitate towards Gov. Romney this week.
1 posted on 10/17/2012 3:12:23 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet; SeekAndFind; LS; Perdogg; napscoordinator; God luvs America; nutmeg; ...

but but Intrade and Nate Silver told me that Obama was going to win!


2 posted on 10/17/2012 3:14:06 PM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

Part of me thinks at this point Obama is only concerned about base turnout so he doesn’t get humiliated losing states like Oregon in landslide.


3 posted on 10/17/2012 3:14:29 PM PDT by Shadow44
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet
Dear God let this be true.

If so, I don't think theres any way Obama can reverse the trend. He's toast.

4 posted on 10/17/2012 3:15:56 PM PDT by skeeter
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Shadow44

5 posted on 10/17/2012 3:16:28 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

Here in NC, I hear an ad about the 47% on the radio almost every 15 mins. Very decieving ad since I know the real story due to the NON-MSM. At the end he says, “I`m Barack Obama, candidate for president, and I approved this message.” LOLOLOLOLOL...He wants people to forget he has been president for the last four years. It`s gonna be his first term!!....CANDIDATE!!!! LOLOLOL.


6 posted on 10/17/2012 3:17:45 PM PDT by NCDave (AKA, "That idiot over there")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

Kimball Political Consulting Results for 10-12, 10-13 VA Poll (Romney 54%, Obama 43%)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-gop/2945943/posts

[EXCLUSIVE] 77% likelihood Romney wins popular vote, according to Famous U of Colorado model
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2945881/posts

Poll: Romney Has Large Lead In Rural Swing Counties
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2945678/posts

ROMNEY 55%, OBAMA 42% — QSN DTP 10/15
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2945041/posts


7 posted on 10/17/2012 3:21:32 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

The sad thing is that George McGovern would not have been as terrible in our White House as the current occupant. It’s a shame today’s voters are neither as smart nor as patriotic as those from 1972.


8 posted on 10/17/2012 3:27:18 PM PDT by Pollster1 (Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. - Ronald Reagan)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: Pollster1

That was the Depression era/World War II/Korean War generation mostly. They’re almost all gone now. If they’d still been around, an Obama candidacy would have been a sad joke, as would Hillary.


9 posted on 10/17/2012 3:30:05 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet
If this report is true, Romney wins under the following scenarios:

1. He wins Ohio.

2. He loses Ohio, but he wins Wisconsin and any one of Iowa, New Hampshire, or Nevada.

3. He loses both Ohio and Wisconsin but wins Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada.

4. He loses Ohio, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire but wins Nevada and Iowa and one of Maine's electoral votes (and gets all of Nebraska's electoral votes).

10 posted on 10/17/2012 3:33:47 PM PDT by p. henry
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: NCDave
Zero has zero chance here in NC. Pat McCrory is up 14% in the governors race in the polls, I expect Romney to do almost as good here. I've been saying 2008 was a fluke here, there is no way the teleprompter in chief would win this state this time around.
11 posted on 10/17/2012 3:39:40 PM PDT by machman
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: p. henry

I think Paul rhyne needs to hang out in IA, OH, and Wis


12 posted on 10/17/2012 3:41:23 PM PDT by personalaccts (Is George W going to protect the border?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

I know that it is still unlikely but my relatives in Pennsylvania say that they are not seeing nearly as many D signs as R in their travels around the state. If Obama loses PA at 7PM, it will be a very long night at the White House and that big party on November 7th - Michelle will not be very cheerful!

As for Ohio, it appears to be VERY competitive!


13 posted on 10/17/2012 3:45:17 PM PDT by SES1066 (Government is NOT the reason for my existence!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: personalaccts

We will know the race is won when Romney or Ryan start appearing in states that are safe in the race for President but also have competetive Senate races: Arizona, Indiana, North Dakota, Montana, Connecticut, and (possibly) New Jersey.


14 posted on 10/17/2012 3:49:43 PM PDT by p. henry
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

I’m in central rural Virginia. The area is completely carpeted with Romney/Ryan signs, including the huge ones. I have never seen as many campaign signs in an election year. You literally cannot turn your head without seeing the double R logo.


15 posted on 10/17/2012 3:56:10 PM PDT by CatherineofAragon (Don't be afraid to see what you see. (Ronald Reagan))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: p. henry

“If this report is true, Romney wins under the following scenarios:
...”

If the report holds true, Romney is at 262. So he wins if

1.He wins Ohio.
2.He wins Wisconsin.
3.He wins 2 out of 3 of New Hampshire, Iowa and Nevada.
4.He wins either Iowa or Nevada + 1 electoral vote from Maine (assuming he gets the at large Nebraska EV, and assuming he wins a tie of 269-269 based on a GOP house).

I wonder what his chances are in for that Maine EV. Wonder if they’re running any ads in Maine?


16 posted on 10/17/2012 4:12:07 PM PDT by TomEwall
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: TomEwall

I saw a poll the other day that had Romney up in ME-01.


17 posted on 10/17/2012 4:22:06 PM PDT by NYRepublican72
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: Pollster1

“The sad thing is that George McGovern would not have been as terrible in our White House as the current occupant. It’s a shame today’s voters are neither as smart nor as patriotic as those from 1972.”

He would have been pretty terrible. You could regard Obama as McGovern with a tan.


18 posted on 10/17/2012 4:30:32 PM PDT by ModelBreaker
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: machman

“Zero has zero chance here in NC. Pat McCrory is up 14% in the governors race in the polls, I expect Romney to do almost as good here. I’ve been saying 2008 was a fluke here, there is no way the teleprompter in chief would win this state this time around.”

You are TOTALLY RIGHT. 2008 was an outlier - McCain had done all he could to alienate the Republican base (to the point of telling them to shut up when they mentioned Obama’s middle name). Well, it’s 2012, and the first thing that Obama did in office was alienate the White voter - with that racial crap in MA. He did fine holding his black base, but he gave up on the middle and now people are focusing on the election - and they’ve had enough of him.

As to NC and Virginia, for that matter - they were NEVER in play - due to their still-conservative majorities. I’ve been saying that for months, even when the polls looked bad. The problem with that polling was that people weren’t focusing. It’s surprising that Obama’s campaign was stupid enough to keep spending money there. They should have been covering the more competitive states more. We can only thank their stupid advisory who went for those states - he did Romney a HUGE favor.


19 posted on 10/17/2012 4:35:36 PM PDT by BobL (You can live each day only once. You can waste a few, but don't waste too many.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: CatherineofAragon

I’m in Fairfax county near DC. Within 5-10 miles of me the signs Romney/Obama signs appear fairly equally. Some neighborhoods will have a lot of Romney signs. Other neighborhoods will have a lot of Obama signs.

Fairfax country broke wide for Obama in 2008. In 2012 it will be close one way or the other.

Romney will win VA because because he won’t get a big advantage out of the populous counties around DC and Norfolk and because the rural counties will deliver overwhelming votes in Romney’s favor.

Basically the vote will be a repeat of the wave election of 2010. There was something like a 20% swing among independents. This time Obama’s support will be down among all groups. Even blacks. Instead of getting 95% of the black vote. Obama may get 90% plus another 10% won’t vote because their pastors tell them don’t vote for Obama because of the homosexual biz.(They won’t be able to bring themselves to vote for Romney so they’ll just stay away from the poles.)


20 posted on 10/17/2012 4:47:55 PM PDT by ckilmer
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet; Liz; AT7Saluki

That’s a shame.


21 posted on 10/17/2012 5:20:33 PM PDT by Libloather (The epitome of civility.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ModelBreaker
He would have been pretty terrible. You could regard Obama as McGovern with a tan.

McGovern was a socialist and not terribly bright, which would support your position, but McGovern at least didn't hate our country. I'd take him over Obama in a heartbeat, and not just because of his failing health.

22 posted on 10/17/2012 5:22:54 PM PDT by Pollster1 (Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. - Ronald Reagan)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: TomEwall

Oops. I had NM colored wrong. He’s at 257, not 262, so needs 12 more. That’s either

1.Ohio
2.Wisconsin + one other state
3.Nevada + Iowa

Maine EV doesn’t matter. NH only matters if Romney wins Wisconsin but loses Ohio.

Seems unlikely Romney would win without Ohio, however.


23 posted on 10/17/2012 5:24:07 PM PDT by TomEwall
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

The fairy tale turns Grimm...

Heck, it’s been grim for America since 2008!


24 posted on 10/17/2012 5:26:53 PM PDT by mrsmith (Dumb sluts: Lifeblood of the Media, Backbone of the Democrat Party!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

Good report.

Thanks, 2DV.


25 posted on 10/17/2012 6:00:09 PM PDT by SharpRightTurn ( White, black, and red all over--America's affirmative action, metrosexual president.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: All

despite the name, I live in VA.

Kaine is running ads that feature him working with George Bush and opposing Obama and they’re running an out and out lie as far as healthcare goes. When they are desperate enough they will bring back macacca. He’s also running radio ads on the local conservative station which could mean either he’s not agitating the base enough and he needs repubs or he’s just so confident that he’s wasting money.

From what I’ve seen, there have been fewer TV ads for Obama in VA over the last few days but that could mean he’s retooling. as far as signage goes, lots of republicans representing and even my neighbor had his Romney sign stomped.

They have a big machine in the Commonwealth and I don’t expect them to go quietly. If they are staying, I expect a push over the weekend into the debate and next week will be a huge buy.


26 posted on 10/17/2012 6:08:35 PM PDT by newnhdad (Where will you be during the Election Riots of 2012/2013?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 24 | View Replies]

To: newnhdad
...but that could mean he’s retooling.

Or running out of loot. Even the RATS don't know how much they owe.

DNC faces cash shortfall on eve of 2012 election

27 posted on 10/17/2012 6:33:33 PM PDT by Libloather (The epitome of civility.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 26 | View Replies]

To: Libloather

Lack of money never stopped Barry.
They have so many vendors, contractors and subs that they never really have a handle on their debt until after the smoke clears. Candidates usually start debt retirement the week after elections.

When I worked in that industry, the democrats were allowed to carry debt out for over 12 months with the union shops. It was so bad, nobody would do business with them except three or four shops and everyone else demanded payment up front. Those weasels tried to get out of paying postage one time.


28 posted on 10/18/2012 4:04:05 AM PDT by newnhdad (Where will you be during the Election Riots of 2012/2013?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 27 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

5 emails from the Obama team yesterday. Won’t you just give $5.00?


29 posted on 10/18/2012 4:23:36 AM PDT by listenhillary (Courts, law enforcement, roads and national defense should be the extent of government)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: All
OHAHA PROPAGANDA "Team O has to decide how to allocate what’s left of its campaign treasury down the stretch...."

Oh, please-----Romney needs to be very very wary of these claims.

The Ohaha Team is plotting a very crafty strategy----lying about their campaign outlays-----the same callous cadre that blatantly lied about four Americans killed in Benghazi.

===============================================

Ohaha's legislative tricks were intended to fuel his reelection: the so-called TARP stimulus hid zillions in several states---in NJ alone $17.6 Billion was sent and promptly disappeared when it landed there. Fact is, Obama and the Chi/mobsters running his campaign have zillions salted away.

==========================================

Do not underestimate the dirty cash the Ohahas/Chi-mob can come up with to fix the election......remember, these are the kingpins of Chicago politics. At one time, conscientious FEC investigators verified money was coming from legal citizens....but if Obama wins there will be no investigations. Remember, there are billions unaccounted for in Obama's stimulus packages....you can be sure the Ohaha kingpins have tons of money stashed away.

POINTS TO PONDER

<><> author Dean Koontz estimates there's about $90 billion missing from the US Treasury.

<><> Ohaha's ex-COS Chi/Mayor Rahm Emanuel is one Chi/mobster running the reelection campaign---this Wall Street turd knows where all the money is hidden. Rahm also controlled all US Treasury assets (at Obama's behest) when he was COS.

<><>The Ohahas took control of the census upon taking office----they have all the necessary CV to phony up contribution reports for the FEC.

THIS MADE ME LAUGH OUT LOUD Obama's ex-COS "Wall Street Rahm" "suddenly" discovered he wanted to be Chicago mayor---so the dancing little turd went before the mics and announced his mayoral campaign "raised $10 million in just a few weeks" .........(cue laugh machine).

Rahm also controlled the US Treasury as COS. This turd-o-crat knows where all the stolen Federal money is hidden....Wall Street knows how to make money disappear faster than a cream puff at a Weight Watcher weigh-in.

=======================================

ROMNEY NEEDS TO WATCH FOR PHONY FEC REPORTS The Ohaha's "say" they added $45 million to reelection coffers in February.....raised jointly by the DNC, "Obama for America" and two other joint fundraising committees — the "Obama Victory Fund" and the "Swing State Victory Fund,"...and whatever other voter frauds they dream up.

=========================================================

Obama's open mic slip in Russia revealed his hidden agenda. He didnt say "after the election, or “after the next election.” He said: “This is my last election" ....... reassuring the Ruskis that he'll then have "more flexibility after the election....”

Clearly Ohaha's certainty WRT staying in offce is not based on his approval ratings or massive opposition to his cockamamie polices----mandated healthcare, trillion dollar stimulus, using aborted babies' brains in lab experiments, giving himself massive executive power over Americans, co-opting religious beliefs, $4-Plus gas, 16% real unemployment, trillion dollardeficits, escalating inflation at the supermarket, the GSA spending scandal......to name a few.

No. Ohaha's certainty stems from his knowledge that he will stay in office---not by the will of the people---but by buying his reelection with federal money....using massive vote fraud.

Remember, voter fraud is the Chi/mobs' specialty---do NOT underestimate Rahm and Axelrod (both running O's reelection), and Valerie whatsherface in the WH.

Let us not forget----the minute they hit the WH, the Chi/mob went into action: the WH Chi/mob took over the census---and now have all the CV they need to file phony FEC reports using stolen federal dollars as campaign contributions.

=========================================

2012 Ohaha deviates are using the 2008 Anita (Mao) Dunn strategy to manipulate voters, to downplay Ohaha's destructive policies ....and his scary plans for the next term. Dunn said THEY and only THEY decided what the media should know about 2008 candidate Ohaha.

The strategy is already in place---watch the Ohahas copping that "don't worry--we're harmless" attitude.

30 posted on 10/18/2012 5:29:22 AM PDT by Liz ("Come quickly, I'm tasting the stars." Dom Perignon)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Pollster1

I met McGovern a few years ago. He was an arrogant a$$. He had that fundamental progressive belief that if America had just given him power and money, he was smart enough to have figured everything out and have made everything the way it should be.

Tower of Babel.


31 posted on 10/18/2012 7:52:29 AM PDT by ModelBreaker
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 22 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
GOP Club
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson