Skip to comments.Report: Obama campaign turning grim on Florida, Virginia, North Carolina — and Colorado?
Posted on 10/17/2012 3:12:12 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
You need to read way, way, way down into this National Journal piece to find the key bit, but its worth it. Says Jay Cost, Ive never seen anybody bury a lede like Major Garrett here.
Lets bring this treasure chest up to the surface:
What also became clear after the dust began to settle from the rumble on Long Island was the electoral map has narrowed and Obamas team, while conceding nothing publicly, is circling the wagons around Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. Plouffe said that Obama remains strong in all four states, but he would not discuss the specifics of internal polling or voter-contact analytics, saying only that Obama has significant leads in all four places.
It is uncharacteristic of Team Obama to concede any terrain, but Plouffe offered no such assurances about Obamas position in North Carolina, Virginia, or Florida. Romney advisers have seen big gains in all three states and now consider wins likely, although not guaranteed, in all three. They are similarly upbeat about prospects in Colorado but not confident enough to predict victory. That Plouffe left Colorado off his list of states where Obamas leading and can withstand a Romney surge might be telling
Romney, according to RCP, has 191 electoral votes. If you add Florida (29), North Carolina (15), and Virginia (13), that brings his total to 248 electoral votes. Add Colorado (9) which neither campaign is prepared to claim or concedeand Romneys total rises to 257 electoral votes. If Romney wins Ohio (18) in addition to these states, he would have 275 electoral votes. If Romney loses Ohio, he would need to win Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire to reach 273 electoral votes.
Meanwhile, from CNNs Peter Hamby:
Peter Hamby✔ @PeterHambyCNN
The buzz from Columbus: Ohio race was reset by Romney's first debate (and he may have even been up heading into debate #2)
17 Oct 12 Reply Retweet Favorite
Its not that Romney has insurmountable leads in FL, VA, and NC, its that Team O has to decide how to allocate whats left of its campaign treasury down the stretch and there are better bets for them than those three states. Triage, in other words. Mitts up 4.7 points on average in North Carolina, which would be tough for O to make up, and 2.5 points in Florida, which might be doable but would be hugely expensive in terms of reserving enough ad time to make a dent. Im a little surprised to see Virginia included O actually leads there by eight-tenths of a point, although Romneys (narrowly) won the last three polls, so maybe Obamas campaign figures its not worth resisting that momentum in a state they dont really need. They do kind of need Colorado, though, and that actually looks tougher than Virginia for them at the moment: Romney leads by seven-tenths of a point and has won six of the nine polls taken since the first debate. If I had to guess, Id bet theyre looking at Virginia and Colorado now as an either/or situation; if Romneys lead opens a bit in one rather than the other, that one will be written off and an investment made in the closer state.
Via Gateway Pundit, heres Karl Rove with a fun fact about that blockbuster Gallup poll today. The most important set of polls in the race thus far, I think, will be the next ones out of Ohio incorporating reaction to last nights debate. I dont expect much to change, but if one candidate suddenly picks up a few points, the path-to-270 strategizing is going to change instantly, and maybe dramatically.
Update: Changed the headline from backing away from to turning grim on. Garretts piece implies that Team O might cut those states loose, but doesnt cite anyone clearly saying that. Read between the lines, though.
(VIDEO AT LINK)
but but Intrade and Nate Silver told me that Obama was going to win!
Part of me thinks at this point Obama is only concerned about base turnout so he doesn’t get humiliated losing states like Oregon in landslide.
If so, I don't think theres any way Obama can reverse the trend. He's toast.
Here in NC, I hear an ad about the 47% on the radio almost every 15 mins. Very decieving ad since I know the real story due to the NON-MSM. At the end he says, “I`m Barack Obama, candidate for president, and I approved this message.” LOLOLOLOLOL...He wants people to forget he has been president for the last four years. It`s gonna be his first term!!....CANDIDATE!!!! LOLOLOL.
Kimball Political Consulting Results for 10-12, 10-13 VA Poll (Romney 54%, Obama 43%)
[EXCLUSIVE] 77% likelihood Romney wins popular vote, according to Famous U of Colorado model
Poll: Romney Has Large Lead In Rural Swing Counties
ROMNEY 55%, OBAMA 42% — QSN DTP 10/15
The sad thing is that George McGovern would not have been as terrible in our White House as the current occupant. It’s a shame today’s voters are neither as smart nor as patriotic as those from 1972.
That was the Depression era/World War II/Korean War generation mostly. They’re almost all gone now. If they’d still been around, an Obama candidacy would have been a sad joke, as would Hillary.
1. He wins Ohio.
2. He loses Ohio, but he wins Wisconsin and any one of Iowa, New Hampshire, or Nevada.
3. He loses both Ohio and Wisconsin but wins Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada.
4. He loses Ohio, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire but wins Nevada and Iowa and one of Maine's electoral votes (and gets all of Nebraska's electoral votes).
I think Paul rhyne needs to hang out in IA, OH, and Wis
I know that it is still unlikely but my relatives in Pennsylvania say that they are not seeing nearly as many D signs as R in their travels around the state. If Obama loses PA at 7PM, it will be a very long night at the White House and that big party on November 7th - Michelle will not be very cheerful!
As for Ohio, it appears to be VERY competitive!
We will know the race is won when Romney or Ryan start appearing in states that are safe in the race for President but also have competetive Senate races: Arizona, Indiana, North Dakota, Montana, Connecticut, and (possibly) New Jersey.
I’m in central rural Virginia. The area is completely carpeted with Romney/Ryan signs, including the huge ones. I have never seen as many campaign signs in an election year. You literally cannot turn your head without seeing the double R logo.
“If this report is true, Romney wins under the following scenarios:
If the report holds true, Romney is at 262. So he wins if
1.He wins Ohio.
2.He wins Wisconsin.
3.He wins 2 out of 3 of New Hampshire, Iowa and Nevada.
4.He wins either Iowa or Nevada + 1 electoral vote from Maine (assuming he gets the at large Nebraska EV, and assuming he wins a tie of 269-269 based on a GOP house).
I wonder what his chances are in for that Maine EV. Wonder if they’re running any ads in Maine?
I saw a poll the other day that had Romney up in ME-01.
“The sad thing is that George McGovern would not have been as terrible in our White House as the current occupant. Its a shame todays voters are neither as smart nor as patriotic as those from 1972.”
He would have been pretty terrible. You could regard Obama as McGovern with a tan.
“Zero has zero chance here in NC. Pat McCrory is up 14% in the governors race in the polls, I expect Romney to do almost as good here. I’ve been saying 2008 was a fluke here, there is no way the teleprompter in chief would win this state this time around.”
You are TOTALLY RIGHT. 2008 was an outlier - McCain had done all he could to alienate the Republican base (to the point of telling them to shut up when they mentioned Obama’s middle name). Well, it’s 2012, and the first thing that Obama did in office was alienate the White voter - with that racial crap in MA. He did fine holding his black base, but he gave up on the middle and now people are focusing on the election - and they’ve had enough of him.
As to NC and Virginia, for that matter - they were NEVER in play - due to their still-conservative majorities. I’ve been saying that for months, even when the polls looked bad. The problem with that polling was that people weren’t focusing. It’s surprising that Obama’s campaign was stupid enough to keep spending money there. They should have been covering the more competitive states more. We can only thank their stupid advisory who went for those states - he did Romney a HUGE favor.
I’m in Fairfax county near DC. Within 5-10 miles of me the signs Romney/Obama signs appear fairly equally. Some neighborhoods will have a lot of Romney signs. Other neighborhoods will have a lot of Obama signs.
Fairfax country broke wide for Obama in 2008. In 2012 it will be close one way or the other.
Romney will win VA because because he won’t get a big advantage out of the populous counties around DC and Norfolk and because the rural counties will deliver overwhelming votes in Romney’s favor.
Basically the vote will be a repeat of the wave election of 2010. There was something like a 20% swing among independents. This time Obama’s support will be down among all groups. Even blacks. Instead of getting 95% of the black vote. Obama may get 90% plus another 10% won’t vote because their pastors tell them don’t vote for Obama because of the homosexual biz.(They won’t be able to bring themselves to vote for Romney so they’ll just stay away from the poles.)
That’s a shame.
McGovern was a socialist and not terribly bright, which would support your position, but McGovern at least didn't hate our country. I'd take him over Obama in a heartbeat, and not just because of his failing health.
Oops. I had NM colored wrong. He’s at 257, not 262, so needs 12 more. That’s either
2.Wisconsin + one other state
3.Nevada + Iowa
Maine EV doesn’t matter. NH only matters if Romney wins Wisconsin but loses Ohio.
Seems unlikely Romney would win without Ohio, however.
The fairy tale turns Grimm...
Heck, it’s been grim for America since 2008!
despite the name, I live in VA.
Kaine is running ads that feature him working with George Bush and opposing Obama and they’re running an out and out lie as far as healthcare goes. When they are desperate enough they will bring back macacca. He’s also running radio ads on the local conservative station which could mean either he’s not agitating the base enough and he needs repubs or he’s just so confident that he’s wasting money.
From what I’ve seen, there have been fewer TV ads for Obama in VA over the last few days but that could mean he’s retooling. as far as signage goes, lots of republicans representing and even my neighbor had his Romney sign stomped.
They have a big machine in the Commonwealth and I don’t expect them to go quietly. If they are staying, I expect a push over the weekend into the debate and next week will be a huge buy.
Or running out of loot. Even the RATS don't know how much they owe.
Lack of money never stopped Barry.
They have so many vendors, contractors and subs that they never really have a handle on their debt until after the smoke clears. Candidates usually start debt retirement the week after elections.
When I worked in that industry, the democrats were allowed to carry debt out for over 12 months with the union shops. It was so bad, nobody would do business with them except three or four shops and everyone else demanded payment up front. Those weasels tried to get out of paying postage one time.
5 emails from the Obama team yesterday. Won’t you just give $5.00?
Oh, please-----Romney needs to be very very wary of these claims.
The Ohaha Team is plotting a very crafty strategy----lying about their campaign outlays-----the same callous cadre that blatantly lied about four Americans killed in Benghazi.
Ohaha's legislative tricks were intended to fuel his reelection: the so-called TARP stimulus hid zillions in several states---in NJ alone $17.6 Billion was sent and promptly disappeared when it landed there. Fact is, Obama and the Chi/mobsters running his campaign have zillions salted away.
Do not underestimate the dirty cash the Ohahas/Chi-mob can come up with to fix the election......remember, these are the kingpins of Chicago politics. At one time, conscientious FEC investigators verified money was coming from legal citizens....but if Obama wins there will be no investigations. Remember, there are billions unaccounted for in Obama's stimulus packages....you can be sure the Ohaha kingpins have tons of money stashed away.
POINTS TO PONDER
<><> author Dean Koontz estimates there's about $90 billion missing from the US Treasury.
<><> Ohaha's ex-COS Chi/Mayor Rahm Emanuel is one Chi/mobster running the reelection campaign---this Wall Street turd knows where all the money is hidden. Rahm also controlled all US Treasury assets (at Obama's behest) when he was COS.
<><>The Ohahas took control of the census upon taking office----they have all the necessary CV to phony up contribution reports for the FEC.
THIS MADE ME LAUGH OUT LOUD Obama's ex-COS "Wall Street Rahm" "suddenly" discovered he wanted to be Chicago mayor---so the dancing little turd went before the mics and announced his mayoral campaign "raised $10 million in just a few weeks" .........(cue laugh machine).
Rahm also controlled the US Treasury as COS. This turd-o-crat knows where all the stolen Federal money is hidden....Wall Street knows how to make money disappear faster than a cream puff at a Weight Watcher weigh-in.
ROMNEY NEEDS TO WATCH FOR PHONY FEC REPORTS The Ohaha's "say" they added $45 million to reelection coffers in February.....raised jointly by the DNC, "Obama for America" and two other joint fundraising committees the "Obama Victory Fund" and the "Swing State Victory Fund,"...and whatever other voter frauds they dream up.
Obama's open mic slip in Russia revealed his hidden agenda. He didnt say "after the election, or after the next election. He said: This is my last election" ....... reassuring the Ruskis that he'll then have "more flexibility after the election....
Clearly Ohaha's certainty WRT staying in offce is not based on his approval ratings or massive opposition to his cockamamie polices----mandated healthcare, trillion dollar stimulus, using aborted babies' brains in lab experiments, giving himself massive executive power over Americans, co-opting religious beliefs, $4-Plus gas, 16% real unemployment, trillion dollardeficits, escalating inflation at the supermarket, the GSA spending scandal......to name a few.
No. Ohaha's certainty stems from his knowledge that he will stay in office---not by the will of the people---but by buying his reelection with federal money....using massive vote fraud.
Remember, voter fraud is the Chi/mobs' specialty---do NOT underestimate Rahm and Axelrod (both running O's reelection), and Valerie whatsherface in the WH.
Let us not forget----the minute they hit the WH, the Chi/mob went into action: the WH Chi/mob took over the census---and now have all the CV they need to file phony FEC reports using stolen federal dollars as campaign contributions.
2012 Ohaha deviates are using the 2008 Anita (Mao) Dunn strategy to manipulate voters, to downplay Ohaha's destructive policies ....and his scary plans for the next term. Dunn said THEY and only THEY decided what the media should know about 2008 candidate Ohaha.
The strategy is already in place---watch the Ohahas copping that "don't worry--we're harmless" attitude.
I met McGovern a few years ago. He was an arrogant a$$. He had that fundamental progressive belief that if America had just given him power and money, he was smart enough to have figured everything out and have made everything the way it should be.
Tower of Babel.