Skip to comments.Romney Up in RCP "No Toss up" Map
Posted on 10/19/2012 8:20:57 AM PDT by NY4Romney
Recently, we were very excited when Romney finally took a lead in the RCP map, 206 to 201. That's a huge step, and today the RCP made another positive change for us!
Romney has now gained Virginia in the "no toss up" map, making it 281 Obama to 257 Romney. For comparison, as recently as TWO WEEKS ago, the no toss up map was Obama 347 to Romney 191. That's a HUGE, HUGE change this close to the election, and the momentum is clearly with us, with a state changing from Obama to Romney every few days.
We are just 12 electoral votes (269 means we win) from leading in the RCP MAP!!
We need 270 to win. 269 sends it to the House of Representatives.
I believe PA is a done deal...NOW, OH is another matter this stupid state is stubborn as constipation!! That’s the one that Romney is having a difficult time flipping red. He needs to go out and spill TONS of ads there...go personally door to door if he has to! Something gotta give! C’MON OHIO!! For the sake of your children and the nation...UGH! I hate pleading with states that are stuck in stupid!
Don't understand your elation. If Obama has 281 he wins. 281 plus 257 = 538 or all the electoral votes available. If there are no longer any toss up states, I would assume that there would have to be some movement from Obama into the toss up category before they could migrate to Romney. I can't believe there are no toss up states remaining.
Exactly. If Obama has 281 - he wins period.
No no no, sorry for the confusion. RCP has a regular map (Romney up 206 to Obama’s 201, with many toss up states) and a “No toss up” map, which is a map that they assign EVERY state, even toss ups, based on polls and history. In that map, they HAVE to pick someone, and my point is that in the past two weeks the “no toss up” map has gone from a 100 point electoral vote advantage for Obama to nearly tied. That’s huge momentum on our side, coming at just the right time.
This map forces a decision. The candidate who is ahead by one vote out of a thousand gets the state, even though that is clearly a statistical tie (they look at other considerations too, but they don't count any state as a tie or a toss up). This means that if Romney can hold the states currently on his list and pick up 12 or more electoral votes, then Obama is out of office. Possible winning pick ups:
Any two swing states [NV O +3, IA O +2, WI O + 2, MI O + 7, NH O +1] so long as it's not just NH (O +1) paired with NV or IA,
CT (O + 6),
PA (O +5), or
OH (O +1).
That is not a sure thing for Romney, but it is possible. Four years ago, when I was working the polls in a swing state, I knew it would take multiple miracles to avoid the disaster that we have now experienced. This time around, a win is entirely realistic - there are a lot of swing states, even though RCP forces them to one side or the other for this map.