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IBD/TIPP Poll - Is it Credible?

Posted on 10/20/2012 1:32:29 PM PDT by NY4Romney

The latest IBD/TIPP Poll shows Obama up 3, 47 to 44 (though that's due to rounding, it's actually only Obama up 2.6%). Now, both sides love to discredit any poll that doesn't look good for them: look at how the left is freaking out about the "outlier" of a Gallup poll. I don't do that..I've seen many polls that look bad for Romney that I actually find believable once looking at the internals. I never discredit a poll just because I don't like it - I just call it like I see it. Having said that...

The IBD/TIPP poll is absolute sh*t.

1. First, right on top, there's the sampling: 37% democrat, 30% GOP, 32% Independent. That is definitely not going to happen and they are way oversampling dems and undersampling republicans.

2. As far as sex, race, etc - there's no way to know, as the poll doesn't give any further breakdown in terms of percent of the sample. One very telling thing, however, is at the bottom of the poll, which is point number 3.

3. Look at the very last question on the poll: The 2008 vote. According to the poll, Obama wins 83% of people that voted for him in 08, and 4% of Mccain Voters. Romney wins 92% of McCain voters and 10% of Obama voters. We have actual data we can extrapolate this from:

2008 Vote: Obama: 69,456,897 McCain: 59,934,815

So.. Obama = (0.83)69,456,897 + (0.04)59,934,815 = Obama = 57,649,224 + 2,397,362 = 60,046,616 Total

Romney = (0.10)69,456,897 + (0.92)59,934,815 Romney = 6,945,689 + 55,140,029 = 62,085,718 Total

Romney: 50.8% Obama: 49.1%

So even using their skewed poll, if corrected to reality, shows Romney up by almost 2 points. And this is just based on people who voted in 2008 - if the EXACT same people who voted in 2008 voted in 2012, Romney would win...yet we all know that more Republicans who sat home in 08 are ready to go, and lots of disappointed democrats are going to be sitting home...so probably another few points for that.

Romney's going to win this. The ONLY polls that show Obama leading anywhere, even in Ohio, are extremely generous to Obama and do not reflect reality. I'm a huge worrier and knew Obama would beat McCain - I never once thought McCain had a chance. I also thought Romney had no chance up until that first debate. Now I'm completely confident of Romney's win.

But WE MUST FIGHT TO THE END! DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE OBAMA'S MACHINE! GOTV! TELL YOUR FRIENDS! VOLUNTEER! DONATE! And if we can keep this up for just TWO MORE WEEKS, we can all laugh as MSNBC cuts their stream in November 6th and DU goes offline. Imagine Chris Matthew's crying face and GO FORWARD!


TOPICS: Polls
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; oh2012

1 posted on 10/20/2012 1:32:32 PM PDT by NY4Romney
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To: NY4Romney

Let’s panic!


2 posted on 10/20/2012 1:33:32 PM PDT by Revolting cat! (Bad things are wrong! Ice cream is delicious!)
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To: NY4Romney

The pollsters are going all out trying to prop up their boy Barry and make this a race. I smell shades of 2010 myself.


3 posted on 10/20/2012 1:35:08 PM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (This is America! Being dead is no excuse not to vote!!!)
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To: Revolting cat!

4 posted on 10/20/2012 1:36:47 PM PDT by Utmost Certainty (Our Enemy, the State)
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To: NY4Romney

Sure a lot of concern trolls popping up lately.


5 posted on 10/20/2012 1:37:25 PM PDT by Kirkwood (Zombie Hunter)
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To: NY4Romney

My tagline.


6 posted on 10/20/2012 1:38:09 PM PDT by Jet Jaguar (The pundits have forgotten the 2010 elections.)
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To: NY4Romney

I think it is a credible pollster who is using flawed and mistaken turnout assumptions. We will find out in two weeks.


7 posted on 10/20/2012 1:39:00 PM PDT by Arthurio
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To: NY4Romney

Very clever reversal of their own stupid math.


8 posted on 10/20/2012 1:40:08 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: Revolting cat!

Why does IDB even associates itself, much or less lend their name, to a polling outfit like this is beyond me....same goes for the Wall Street Jourrnal? How they could ever partner up with NBC never made any since to me!!


9 posted on 10/20/2012 1:40:50 PM PDT by gumbie05
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To: NY4Romney

I think it will be more fun to see who does and who does not read your whole post. lol


10 posted on 10/20/2012 1:42:59 PM PDT by Frapster (There you go again....)
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To: Kirkwood

If you’re calling me a concern troll, perhaps you should read the post first. How’s that sound?

It’s a post showing how even Obama’s best national poll (O +3) is actually showing Romney leading.


11 posted on 10/20/2012 1:43:33 PM PDT by NY4Romney
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To: Frapster

First to admit it didn’t read the entire post!


12 posted on 10/20/2012 1:43:54 PM PDT by Revolting cat! (Bad things are wrong! Ice cream is delicious!)
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To: NY4Romney

Suppose you’re correct. Suppose, just suppose, hypothetically that you’re wrong and that the Communist from Kenya wins. What will you say then?


13 posted on 10/20/2012 1:45:39 PM PDT by Revolting cat! (Bad things are wrong! Ice cream is delicious!)
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To: NY4Romney

Troll!


14 posted on 10/20/2012 1:45:52 PM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: NY4Romney

I personally think no poll is meaningful. Some poll questions are skewed to elicit a certain response. Sometimes the sample favors voters of one party or the other. Sometimes people answer questions by telling the pollster what they think the pollster wants to hear. And then there is that pesky margin of error.

Someone once said the only poll that counts is the one on election day. No need to get into an uproar over an unfavorable poll. And for that matter, I wouldn’t break out the champagne over a favorable poll either.


15 posted on 10/20/2012 1:46:38 PM PDT by fatnotlazy
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To: Revolting cat!

I almost quit reading after the first paragraph but quickly jumped to the last sentence. lol then I read the whole thing once I realized it wasn’t a panic post.


16 posted on 10/20/2012 1:48:59 PM PDT by Frapster (There you go again....)
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To: NY4Romney

+7 Democrat is all you need to know about the quality of the Poll.


17 posted on 10/20/2012 1:50:10 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: Frapster

I also ended up reading the whole thing, just to spite myself!


18 posted on 10/20/2012 1:50:48 PM PDT by Revolting cat! (Bad things are wrong! Ice cream is delicious!)
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To: NY4Romney

It ain’t over ‘til it’s over. That’s a fact.


19 posted on 10/20/2012 1:52:27 PM PDT by Paladin2
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To: NY4Romney; Steelfish
When I saw your headline, I assumed it was Steelfish. He's probably duplicate posted it with his usual troll concern.

I agree with your analysis; but it's kinda like shooting (steel)fish in a barrel. Has TIPP ever actually been right?

20 posted on 10/20/2012 1:53:09 PM PDT by FredZarguna (A bump in the road. Not optimal.)
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To: NY4Romney

I’m pretty sure this poll showed Romney’s support among conservatives dropping from 72% to 68% over a two day span. That was yesterday or the day before, if I recall correctly. There’s something goofy going on with this poll this year, even though in the past it’s been pretty accurate.


21 posted on 10/20/2012 1:53:13 PM PDT by nailspitter
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To: FlingWingFlyer

I smell shades of Chick-Fil-A day. Libs are going to be shocked.


22 posted on 10/20/2012 1:54:43 PM PDT by 429CJ (.)
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To: NY4Romney; a fool in paradise; Slings and Arrows

I used to know a Pole who was all right!


23 posted on 10/20/2012 1:54:50 PM PDT by Revolting cat! (Bad things are wrong! Ice cream is delicious!)
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To: Revolting cat!

I think that Obama is going to get 47% of the vote.....just like Romney said months ago


24 posted on 10/20/2012 1:55:00 PM PDT by Willie681
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To: NY4Romney

Then there are those Dems who when polled say they are voting party line....even though they are smart enough to say that and vote R.


25 posted on 10/20/2012 1:55:51 PM PDT by Fully Awake DAV (Navy Vet when homosexuality was not tolerated)
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To: NY4Romney; Revolting cat!; a fool in paradise

It’s a Poll dance.


26 posted on 10/20/2012 1:57:55 PM PDT by Slings and Arrows (You can't have IngSoc without an Emmanuel Goldstein.)
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To: Willie681

47% sounds right, I don’t think a bigger margin is achievable for a GOP candidate, and that itself is an outrage in face of such obvious and overwhelming failure of Obumster!


27 posted on 10/20/2012 1:58:10 PM PDT by Revolting cat! (Bad things are wrong! Ice cream is delicious!)
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; ColdOne; Convert from ECUSA; ...

Thanks NY4Romney:
I've seen many polls that look bad for Romney that I actually find believable once looking at the internals. I never discredit a poll just because I don't like it -- I just call it like I see it. Having said that... The IBD/TIPP poll is absolute sh*t.

28 posted on 10/20/2012 1:58:30 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: NY4Romney

Any sitting President that is below 50% in the polls at this close to the election will not be re-elected. The only time I know of this happening was when Bill Clinton had Ross Perot running as a third party candidate!


29 posted on 10/20/2012 1:59:20 PM PDT by tallyhoe
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To: 429CJ

That’s what it’s going to take. Anything less than a landslide and the criminals will steal it. It’s what they do. It’s all they know.


30 posted on 10/20/2012 2:00:12 PM PDT by WhistlingPastTheGraveyard (Some men just want to watch the world burn.)
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To: NY4Romney

Proof this poll is shite: They have Romney and Obama running about equal among men. So that tells me this poll is likely overweighted with African Americans and/or young voters. It’s a propaganda poll pure and simple.


31 posted on 10/20/2012 2:00:36 PM PDT by o2bfree (All us minorities got us an Obamaphone!!!)
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To: NY4Romney

My guess as to what is wrong with the IBD poll is that it does not assign “leans” the way other polls do. Note that it has Obama at 46.6, which is only 0.5 higher than he is in the RCP avg. In contrast, Mitt is at 44, or 3 entire points lower than he is in RCP. If you add 46.6 and 44, you get only 90.6, leaving almost 10 points unaccounted for. In contrast, Rasmussen has only 3 points undecided and Gallup 4—IDB, therefore has more than twice as man undecided voters as Gallup and three times as many as Rasmussen.

I suspect if a person does not initially state a preference, IBD is less likely to press for which way the person is leaning than the other two. Obama’s 47 percent—as Romney said—is pretty committed. Mitt has to cement those leaners on election day.


32 posted on 10/20/2012 2:00:42 PM PDT by nkronos
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To: NY4Romney; All

I watch that poll daily and posted about it on another thread.

It is actually great news considering the oversampling makes it clear Romney is ACTUALLY AHEAD.

Same with Fox’s Ohio poll yesterday, a BIGGER Dem oversample than last month’s poll and yet it shows the race closer with a slim Obama lead. It is clear he is leading in that poll in reality in Ohio as well.

A LOT can change, and I do worry about Allred’s rumor since she did not outright deny the rumor just said she doesn’t talk about client meetings.

But, we are in good shape.

Now can only hope it pulls our GOP Senate/House candidates across the finish line.


33 posted on 10/20/2012 2:00:42 PM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: Paladin2

As someone here said, can’t recall whom-—

It ain’t over until the rioters burn their neighborhoods.


34 posted on 10/20/2012 2:04:59 PM PDT by John W (Viva Cristo Rey!)
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To: NY4Romney

A couple of hours ago I sent them an e mail asking how on earth they think their result could be even close to reality having a sample with Dems+7.
Dems+7 is the same advantage they had in 2008 (CNN Exit Poll), who can think this election is 2008 all over again?
No way.
2012 looks way closer to 2004 than 2008 and in 2004 both parties has 37% in the CNN Exit Poll.


35 posted on 10/20/2012 2:10:08 PM PDT by Massimo75
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To: Willie681

I would prefer that Obama gets 27% of the vote....I can dream.


36 posted on 10/20/2012 2:14:48 PM PDT by Ann Archy ( ABORTION...the HUMAN Sacrifice to the god of Convenience.)
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To: NY4Romney
"Account created October 8, 2012"

Bye-bye, troll...


37 posted on 10/20/2012 2:30:52 PM PDT by pabianice (washington, dc ..)
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To: pabianice

I’m quite amazed at the large number of people that post before reading the whole thread...

Stop calling me a troll and learn to read!!!!


38 posted on 10/20/2012 2:36:46 PM PDT by NY4Romney
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To: NY4Romney

Close to 10 million people have died in the US since the 2008 election (nearly all, presumably, US citizens over the age of 18) and about 16 million people who were under the minimum age to vote in 2008 are now eligible...so the election can’t be entirely people who voted the last time.


39 posted on 10/20/2012 2:48:01 PM PDT by Verginius Rufus
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To: John W

It ain’t over ‘till the lawyers milk their clients.


40 posted on 10/20/2012 2:48:30 PM PDT by Paladin2
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To: FredZarguna

Hey, go get yourself an echo chamber. You’d feel nice and settled in it. Only shallow minds are disturbed by reality.


41 posted on 10/20/2012 3:05:15 PM PDT by Steelfish (ui)
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To: NY4Romney
A link to the poll would have been helpful to your fellow FReepers.

Why are you sweating it? It's a poll.

I agree that the Democrats are probably over-sampled, but IBD is hardly a left-wing rag so I don't ascribe evil intentions to it.

Don't get all strung-out over polls. They're like newspaper endorsements. The "undecideds" are so lost in the fog that they don't even hear about them.

42 posted on 10/20/2012 3:09:53 PM PDT by BfloGuy (Teach a man to fish and you lose a Democratic voter.)
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To: Arthurio

“I think it is a credible pollster who is using flawed and mistaken turnout assumptions. We will find out in two weeks.”

I think you’re right. There is no way for the pollsters to know everything this time around. What once was a dozen of my Democrat acquaintances switching to Romney is now dozens...in an 80% Dem town. In my granddaughter’s university, there were nine or ten brand new registered Freshmen planning to vote for Romney. That number is past fifty now. They can’t know these things are happening.


43 posted on 10/20/2012 3:58:09 PM PDT by FryingPan101 (2016 looms)
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To: NY4Romney

Do you even know what a troll means? It means stirring up controversy just to get attention. And yes, that makes you a troll. A noob troll at that.


44 posted on 10/20/2012 4:25:38 PM PDT by Kirkwood (Zombie Hunter)
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To: NY4Romney

Do you even know what a troll means? It means stirring up controversy just to get attention. And yes, that makes you a troll. A noob troll at that.


45 posted on 10/20/2012 4:25:38 PM PDT by Kirkwood (Zombie Hunter)
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To: NY4Romney

Do you even know what a troll means? It means stirring up controversy just to get attention. And yes, that makes you a troll. A noob troll at that.


46 posted on 10/20/2012 4:27:08 PM PDT by Kirkwood (Zombie Hunter)
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To: Kirkwood

Whatever you say. My history here more than proves my dedication to defeating Obama and this thread is only to ensure people understand that even the “worst” poll for us is actually still showing Romney leading. There is no controversy here, so calm down fool.


47 posted on 10/20/2012 5:08:53 PM PDT by NY4Romney
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To: NY4Romney

Then don’t join and start posting about losing days before the election!


48 posted on 10/20/2012 6:41:56 PM PDT by pabianice (washington, dc ..)
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To: pabianice

Could you please freakin read my entire post. It’s a post about how we’re WINNING!! WTF? Did you just neglect to read it or do you have no reading comprehension skills?


49 posted on 10/20/2012 7:56:38 PM PDT by NY4Romney
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To: FlingWingFlyer

Dude, it’s investors business daily, which is somewhere to e right of wsj. Nevertheless it’s is a bogus poll.


50 posted on 10/21/2012 11:00:03 AM PDT by dreamyone
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