Tennessee GOP predicting historic gains; 'super duper majority' within grasp, Republicans say

Knoxville News Sentinel ^ | 10/21/12 | Tom Humphrey

[SmithL]

NASHVILLE — Senate Speaker Ron Ramsey says there's a good chance Democrats will be left with just seven seats in the Tennessee state Senate after the Nov. 6 election.

House Speaker Beth Harwell's most optimistic Republican scenario has the minority party with just 24 representatives remaining.

They and other Republican leaders say there's virtually no doubt that the GOP will hit a new high-water mark in the 2012 elections by gaining a two-thirds "super majority" in both chambers of the Legislature. There is considerable confidence in Republican ranks that they will go beyond that to what some are calling "a super duper majority."

Democrats concede the probability of a super majority, which can be achieved by Republicans gaining just two seats each in the House and the Senate, and do not dispute the possibility that things could be a lot worse than that for them.

"We're going to get outspent $3 or $4 to one. They're done redistricting so it will help their candidates. And we've got a president who is not popular with a lot of people," said House Democratic Caucus Chairman Mike Turner. "If we can come back with 34 seats, they will have done a terrible job."

He does, however, think that it's possible the Democrats could break even, partially because of a "rogues gallery" of Republican candidates this year that could turn off voters, and partially because of a trend toward "people not hating Obama as much as they did two years ago."

[Defiant]

we may have to join you. Cal is going down in flames.

[Impy]

Hear about the “sex scandal” of Congressman Scott DesJarlais?

I rather doubt the rats will be able to beat him.

[fieldmarshaldj]

I’ve commented on it, because it’s the only thing the Dems have going for them in TN, as it appears Zero may not even get to 40% of the vote in the state (and their presence in the legislature could drop to at or slightly below 25%, fairly close to MA in reverse). It’s largely some old garbage from 14 years ago that they considered exposing on a wider scale back 2 years ago. The Dems can’t win on the issues, so they’re going to try to win on old sleaze.

The polling data from a GOP firm from 8 days ago (before the doubling down on the “scandal”) showed him leading 49-36%. A Dem firm showed it 49-45% (from mid-October). In the end, I still expect DesJarlais to win, the question is what the margin will be. If it is at or wider than his 19% blowout over Lincoln Davis (whom is partly behind the attacks to get revenge), he will be thoroughly vindicated (he got 57% to 38%). If the margin is narrower (say 53% or lower), there may be pressure on him to conclude his service after two terms. At least one TN Conservative group is panicking, but there’s nothing else we can do but back him. We can’t have last-minute switches in TN.