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Obama’s Aura of Defeat
The New York Times ^ | October 24, 2012 | Ross Douthat

Posted on 10/25/2012 9:03:30 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

In an argument that was echoed and amplified around the liberal twittersphere yesterday, New York’s Jonathan Chait made the case that the Romney campaign has bluffed the press into covering the last two weeks of the campaign as though Obama’s losing. Like George W. Bush in 2000, who famously (and probably foolishly) campaigned in California to lend himself an air of inevitability in the closing days of the campaign, Team Romney’s current brash confidence is designed to persuade the media to overlook the underlying numbers that still point to an advantage for the incumbent. And it’s working, Chait argues: The “widespread perception that Romney is pulling ahead,” he writes, “is Romney’s campaign suckering the press corps with a confidence game.”

I agree with Chait that the numbers still show Obama with a slightly clearer path than Romney to an (excruciatingly narrow) electoral college victory. But if you’re looking for a reason (besides, of course, the national polling showing an ever-so-slight Romney edge) why the media narrative has tilted toward the Republicans over the last week or so, I think the Romney campaign’s guarantee of victory has mattered much less than the Obama campaign’s recent aura of defeat.

Losing campaigns have a certain feel to them: They go negative hard, try out new messaging very late in the game, hype issues that only their core supporters are focused on, and try to turn non-gaffes and minor slip-ups by their opponents into massive, election-turning scandals...

(Excerpt) Read more at douthat.blogs.nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Campaign News; Issues; Polls
KEYWORDS: 2012; obama; polls; romney
Look at the source! They know their boy is finished!
1 posted on 10/25/2012 9:03:33 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

He’s got all the symptoms!


2 posted on 10/25/2012 9:06:30 PM PDT by uncitizen (Religion of Peace my hind end)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Love the article, but it is worth noting that Douthat is a conservative blogger / columnist.


3 posted on 10/25/2012 9:11:12 PM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

He lost to Bobby Rush in a Illinois primary and was rattled by it... and he is losing it now.


4 posted on 10/25/2012 9:11:22 PM PDT by American Constitutionalist
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I’m just shocked that this is from the NY Times? I actually agreed with the whole article!!!!


5 posted on 10/25/2012 9:12:48 PM PDT by winner3000
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

New York Times... finally reporting accurate news ? they must have looked at their financials and figured that they can not lie and stay in business anymore.


6 posted on 10/25/2012 9:13:07 PM PDT by American Constitutionalist
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

7 posted on 10/25/2012 9:13:07 PM PDT by bigbob
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To: comebacknewt
Love the article, but it is worth noting that Douthat is a conservative blogger / columnist.

So why is he writing crap like this:

_____________________________________________________________

"I agree with Chait that the numbers still show Obama with a slightly clearer path than Romney to an (excruciatingly narrow) electoral college victory."

_____________________________________________________________

What 'numbers' is he talking about???

8 posted on 10/25/2012 9:21:03 PM PDT by Ken H
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
“is Romney’s campaign suckering the press corps with a confidence game.”

As if ? as if the media wasn't trying to paint a aura of invincibility that Obama was going to win this thing and the election was all but over 2 months ago.
9 posted on 10/25/2012 9:23:47 PM PDT by American Constitutionalist
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To: 2ndDivisionVet; everyone





CELEBRATION NOVEMBER 6, 2012 CAN'T COME SOON ENOUGH!

SUPPORT FREE REPUBLIC, YOUR HOME ON THE INTERNET!!!

10 posted on 10/25/2012 9:24:31 PM PDT by onyx (FREE REPUBLIC IS HERE TO STAY! DONATE MONTHLY! IF YOU WANT ON SARAH PALIN''S PING LIST, LET ME KNOW)
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To: bigbob

Need to photoshop that with him speaking into the phone backwards.


11 posted on 10/25/2012 9:25:40 PM PDT by American Constitutionalist
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To: 2ndDivisionVet; a fool in paradise; Slings and Arrows
The New York Times ^ | October 24, 2012 | Ross Douthat

I don't Doubt That, Ross!

12 posted on 10/25/2012 9:27:29 PM PDT by Revolting cat! (Bad things are wrong! Ice cream is delicious!)
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To: comebacknewt

Wasn’t J.S. Stalin the “conservative” in V.I. Lenin’s cabinet?


13 posted on 10/25/2012 9:41:56 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
I have been having a hard time figuring out what Obama is doing. I mean, if you are in a tough race with an opponent who won the first debate by being surprisingly human and personable, what kind of idiot thinks that the reason they lost is because "I wasn't rude enough" and how many political advisors are going to tell you to spend the last debate giving everyone the stink eye. Then the whole "bullish….er" thing.

It isn't clear whether this is a calculated strategy to fire up the base to get out and vote. My suspicion is that all the power of the presidency has gone to his head and he is now beyond listening to the people around him. No one seemed to be brave enough to tell him to shut up and study for the first debate.

It seems he is now just acting on his own pride and bitterness that someone is actually challenging him.

14 posted on 10/25/2012 9:43:53 PM PDT by manx
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To: Ken H

Nate Silver, a twenty-something “boy genius” at his newspaper.


15 posted on 10/25/2012 9:43:53 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
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To: Ken H

The numbers he’s talking about are Electoral Votes (EVs). It seems to be moving more favorably toward Romney, but it all comes down to EVs.

Obama, or any Dem, starts off with NY/CA/IL, all EV-rich. Until recently it was assumed that PA/WI/MN would also be automatically in Obama’s column. The Republican, on the other hand, generally has the EVs from the South, but it takes a lot of southern and other states to match the base of any Dem’s EVs.


16 posted on 10/25/2012 9:52:05 PM PDT by EDINVA (I)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Also, even the lib media know that the Benghazi situation is a big fuster-cluck. This must also drive some of the coverage towards Romney. Seriously, every intelligent person alive knows one of these Benghazi is going to blow-up into a big scandal. Isn’t it best to get off the Obama train before you are forced to ride it over the cliff after he wins re-election. I think the lib media is absolutely afraid of Obama might have done in Benghazi and it’s tilting their coverage.....maybe.


17 posted on 10/25/2012 9:58:10 PM PDT by Mustangman (The GOP)
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To: EDINVA
Obama, or any Dem, starts off with NY/CA/IL, all EV-rich. Until recently it was assumed that PA/WI/MN would also be automatically in Obama’s column. The Republican, on the other hand, generally has the EVs from the South, but it takes a lot of southern and other states to match the base of any Dem’s EVs.

That's been known for years. What numbers is he looking at today that show Obama with a clearer path to getting more EVs than Romney?

18 posted on 10/25/2012 10:05:01 PM PDT by Ken H
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To: Ken H

I am sure it is the fact that most polls show Obama with a slight lead in Ohio (although under 50%), and that Romney’s path to victory without Ohio is very tough. Not impossible, but very tough.


19 posted on 10/25/2012 10:34:04 PM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: comebacknewt

If the incumbent dosen’t have 50% now they have lost the state.

Politics is very simple.

Romney will win Ohio 52-48.


20 posted on 10/26/2012 12:48:36 AM PDT by cgbg (No bailouts for New York and California. Let them eat debt.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Losing campaigns have a certain feel to them: They go negative hard, try out new messaging very late in the game, hype issues that only their core supporters are focused on, and try to turn non-gaffes and minor slip-ups by their opponents into massive, election-turning scandals...

That's the Obama campaign to a tee.

21 posted on 10/26/2012 3:02:28 AM PDT by newzjunkey (Osama's dead... and so is our ambassador - Coulter.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Anytime I see articles saying Obama is still the favorite, I look to see what they say about Independents, and I see nothing. How does Obama win if Romney is winning among Independents by 7+ points? I never see this question addressed. By Dem turnout, it would have to be, but what evidence is there that this year Dem turnout will be so much higher than GOP turnout that Obama will succeed where no other incumbent has by winning an election while carrying only around 43% of the Independent vote?


22 posted on 10/26/2012 9:30:39 AM PDT by TomEwall
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