Posted on 10/26/2012 4:13:29 PM PDT by IsaacDian
I want to put forth a theory that I haven't seen anyone think about, despite reading several conservative blogs. It has to do with early voting, which is showing Republicans up big over 2008, and democrats down. Everyone keeps talking about how McCain actually won election day voters by X percent, and that Obama's huge early voting helped negate that. They also then point to a certain "magical number" of early votes that Obama must bank in order to win a state...but that's where the error lies: they then assume that the election day turnout will mirror 2008.
Think about it: if early voting is showing democrats down huge, while Republicans are up...wouldn't election day voting (where the MAJORITY of votes come from) show the same thing? Does it make sense that early voting would swing toward republicans but election day voting would simply stay the same as 2008? Of course not. Which means that in reality, Obama is not only falling short of the early vote margin he needed in 2008 to win, but he actually needs MORE early votes in 2012 to compensate for Romney winning more election day votes than McCain did in 2008.
Thoughts?
ping
I just did a quick take on Nevada early voting and it appears to me that ‘R’ votes have improved by about 11% from 2008. Of course Obama won Nevada by 12+% so the final result may be razor close? The unknown factor IMO is the ‘D’ vote that goes to RR this time around. Could be just enough to put RR over the top.
I think that in a honest election (I know. Stop laughing) a lot of early Republican ballots will mean a lot fewer Republican votes cast on Election Day.
Sounds logical to me, Issac.
If it is true that a number of the early/absentee Republican voters are “low propensity voters” who don’t normally vote yet are swelling the numbers for Republicans in early voting this cycle, the Republicans who turn out on election day itself could be much more dramatic than McShame’s margin in 2008. In fact, a Chik-Fil-A avalanche may be coming on Nov. 6 that will bury the Community-Organizer-in-Chief.
That’s good news. Because all polls in NV has Romney double digits in Nevada with Indies and Obama down with dems and hispanics.
Bing! Bing! Bing! We have a winner!
Depends on where these early Republican voters are coming from. Many Ind/Rep are anxious to rid this country of the stain called Obama. They are voting early.
If these voters are normal election day voters then our turnout on election day will be down.
Rep/Ind in FL, OH, VA, NC have to go vote. I don’t see Romney winning without carrying all four. Also WI, PA, NH, CO Just in case.
The future of our beloved country rest on the shoulders of the voters in these eight states and them turning out to vote.
The accuracy of your prediction depends on WHY early voting changed. If the patterns of who votes early hasn’t changed, but Republicans are doing better than in 2008, it suggests as you say — that Republicans are just doing better across the board.
It is possible that Republicans are doing better in early voting because the ground game is better and Republicans are getting a higher percentage of those who are going to vote Republican to vote early. All else held equal, that would predict a worse showing for Republicans on Election Day.
Sadly for the purpose of analysis, both are probably partially right, meaning early voting will not be quite as predictive as we’d like to think.
The one undeniable benefit of increased early voting is that it means fewer voters the GOTV folks need to contact on Election Day to make sure they voted, freeing up time to contact softer support.
Pre Commnet on Battleground watch
HOFFMAN RESEARCH..OREGON POLL
O 47 R 42
EARLY VOTERS ARE TIED 47 TO 47
per our buddy on twitter Ohio: In my bellwether counties, GOP is up by 0.1% out of 240,606 cast! In 2008, GOP were down 7.3% in same counties. (per election offices)
I disagree. Look at 2008 - democrats slaughtered in early voting and they also did much better than usual on Election Day as well. If being up in early voting had only meant that less democrats would vote on Election Day, then the 2008 election should have looked like 2004.
Instead early voting was an indication that overall democrat enthusiasm was up, hence the democrat landslide. And I think the same is true for republicans now.
Um, McCain won OH on Election Day. And there is NO evidence whatsoever that Ds are anywhere close to 08-— quite the contrary the ONLY actual evidence w have (I.e., not a poll) shows Ds DOWN from 08 by 170,000 votes. They are down anywhere from 5% to 25% in almost every OH county, and the couple where they are not down are very small. In short, these #s mean they are seriously screwed.
Need to gain about 25,000 on Ds by end of early voting in NV
The Election Day GOTV is a much different process that reaches entirely different people. So, no. Your thesis that Election Day turnout will be lower because pre-election turnout is higher is wrong and shows no understanding of the strategy or the organization. Dems are in for a thumping?
It’s hard to believe the enthusiasm gap doesn’t translate to at least some additional votes. My guess is the number of new early R voters will be replaced on election day by those who stayed home 4 years ago.
I’m still not a big fan of Romney, but we’ve seen four years worth of what we are voting against. I think that will get some folks off the couch and to the polls.
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