Skip to comments.Early Vote in Ohio, Iowa, Colorado, New Hampshire and Wisconsin
Posted on 10/27/2012 3:17:31 AM PDT by Massimo75
It's well known that Ohio is the key, and that Ohio state polls seem not to follow the national trend (Romney should be leading by at least 3-4, no polls showing him better than tie instead). RCP average in 2008 missed the real result in many states by several points (2.1 in Ohio, 2.5 in Indiana, 3 in Pennsylvania, 3.5 in Colorado, 5 in Arizona e 6 in Nevada) so maybe it's just due to the margin of error but it's worrying anyway.
Anyway if Romney loses Ohio he has to win Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin and New Hampshire (if he wins Ohio only one of them would be enough). So I would like to focus on these five states. Absentee and Early Voting look great so far according to RNC Political Director Rick Wiley:
"COLORADO Republicans are leading Democrats in absentee ballot requests and early votes by over 10,000 voters. Republicans are outperforming voter registration by 2.13 points. Republicans won the first day of early voting in Colorado. In 2008, Republicans lost early voting by nearly 4 points. Republicans have made 1.5 million volunteer voter contacts in Colorado since the RNCs AB/EV turnout program began nationwide.
IOWA At this point in 2008, Democrats led by almost 24 points in early voting. Today they lead by 8.3 points, a 65 percent collapse in Democrat support. Almost 5,000 fewer Democrats have voted early this year than had done so at this time in 2008. Democrats are underperforming their share of 2008 AB/EV votes cast by 0.41 percentage points, while the GOP is over-performing their share by 1.23 points. The result is a net swing of +1.65 percentage points for Republicans. Republicans have made nearly 1.1 million volunteer voter contacts in Iowa since the AB/EV turnout program began in the state.
NEW HAMPSHIRE Republicans lead Democrats by over 5 points in absentee ballot requests in New Hampshires key towns. Republicans are outperforming our voter registration in absentee requests by 4 points. Republicans have made over 700,000 volunteer voter contacts in New Hampshire since the RNCs AB/EV turnout program began nationwide.
OHIO Republicans are outperforming our share of voter registration in absentee requests and early votes by 8.73 points. Democrats are underperforming their share of 2008 AB/EV votes cast by 7.60 percentage points, while the GOP is over-performing their share by 5.94 points. The result is a net swing of +13.54 percentage points for Republicans. Republicans have closed the gap on Democrats historic absentee and early vote advantage for 15 of the past 16 days. Republicans have made almost 3.7 million volunteer voter contacts in Ohio since the RNCs AB/EV turnout program began nationwide.
WISCONSIN AB/EV activity is down from 2008 the Democrat counties of La Crosse (-19.25%) and Rock (-6.41%) AB/EV activity is up the Republican counties of Outagamie (12.06%) and Washington (26.14%). On the first day of in-person absentee voting, the Republican bastion of Waukesha County out-voted Dane County, a liberal Democrat stronghold and home to the University of Wisconsin-Madison, despite visits to Madison by high-profile Democrat surrogates and celebrities. Republicans have made over 2 million volunteer voter contacts in Wisconsin since the RNCs AB/EV turnout program began nationwide."
Everything seem to be going great, but according to others Obama had good news as well, from Ohio in particular. Does anyone have more figures and information that can help to understand who's REALLY winning the early voting match?
This tweet came from Adrian Gray last night:
Ohio: In my bellwether counties, GOP is up by 0.1% out of 240,606 cast! In 2008, GOP were down 7.3% in same counties. (per election offices)
My translation: OHIO IS ALREADY ROMNEY'S.
The dumb vote, will vote Obama. The MSM wants the dumb voters to buy what they advertise on their networks.
The union representatives are calling their union voters, telling them to vote for Obama. It is time to go door to door and push for Romney.
I just read an article of his on Politico.com
“I have always been a believer in data telling me the full story. Truth is, nobody knows what will happen on Election Day. But here is what we do know: 220,000 fewer Democrats have voted early in Ohio compared with 2008. And 30,000 more Republicans have cast their ballots compared with four years ago. That is a 250,000-vote net increase for a state Obama won by 260,000 votes in 2008.”
Is there any place in the internet where you can find this kind of data, for all the states involved, and make a sensible comparision between 2012 and 2008?
Or do we have to rely on inaccurate and sometimes dishonest stories from the media?
If Romney is elected and a Republican Senate approves his appointments, we could begin to heal the damage. But it will take a long time to flush the system.
After hw winbs, President Romney needs to send his FBI on a treasure hunt. Bush should have unloaded on Billy Jeff. Only by exposing the treason and corruption of this LEFT, will we be able to salvage this great Republic.
The best place I’ve found is http://battlegroundwatch.com. They have some great threads, and some people who really crunch the data, but you have to look around to find stuff.
Ohio seems to be going very well. Most polls show a +Dem turnout, but that looks to be far from reality. Ohio is a traditionally GOP state, and even in 2008 Obama won Ohio by almost 3% less than his national vote total.
Romney looks to be doing well among Indies in OH, so Obama’s chance is turnout, but it doesn’t look like that’s happening for him.