Skip to comments.Doing The Math
Posted on 10/27/2012 9:55:39 PM PDT by Uncle Peter
The importance of winning Ohio with their 18 electoral votes is highly overstated. It is important, but not essential. There are many different options available to Gov. Mitt Romney which will allow him to attain the electoral 270 votes needed to win the Presidency. The math is the 800 pound elephant in the room which is ignored and is clearly under-reported if reported at all.
Polling shows that all battleground states are either dominated by Romney or are tied within the margin of error. Historically, the "undecided's" break 80% going to the challenger and 20% to the incumbent. Of those 80%, 25% go to third-party candidates. Therefore even if a poll is 47 - 47 the undecided's give the challenger a 4 to 5 point advantage (3/4 of those 80%) rendering a 51-47 decision. Amazingly, if a poll is 48 / 45 with the incumbent leading, the challenger can actually win 49/48. The incumbent must attain 50% or risk losing.
Let us assume that all states that went for McCain in 2008 stay the course. That establishes assumed strong loyalty from a base of 179 potential electoral votes . Anticipated support from Indiana (11) and North Carolina (15) is strongly indicated in recent polls which show Romney ahead, well beyond the margin of error. This gives Gov. Romney a reasonable expectation of 205 votes.
Let us further assume that the "swing states" have already swung as indicated by significant Romney leads: Florida (29) R+5; Virginia (13) R+6; Colorado (10) R+4. These swing states together tally 52 giving a total of 257. This leaves Mitt Romney only 13 electoral votes from the Presidency. He has the remaining 8 states to garner these votes from:
Any one of these states
Or these combinations:
If history repeats itself with the undecided's, Romney may win most if not all these states because Barack Obama has not attained 50% in any of the above states. This projects to a mind-boggling potential 355 electoral votes!
Bookmarking (Ghost Adventures and the Dead Files are on the Travel Channel - you don’t watch them?)
Thanks for that encouraging analysis. I would like to consider VA in the bag, but I’m not sure. FL and CO are looking good, and I agree than IN and NC appear to be a done deal.
so where can I get a plain map without any red or blue on it so I can just fill it in?...thx...
Real Clear Politics has a great interactive map that lets you play with all kinds of scenarios
http://realclearpolitics.com is the authority. Navigate to the map and look for “create your own map”
Pollsters from Suffolk University pulled out of Florida, Virginia and North Carolina because Romney is so far ahead
I think you’re right about the way
incumbents need to be at 50%.
I would say also that undecideds
are a larger group than the polls
show because some who say they are
decided are extremely weakly
Michigan has 16 electoral votes, not 15.
Minnesota has 10, not 16.
Nevada has 6, not 9
I just used your post and the walked through it using the interactive map at real clear politics.
You are correct. It is as you say.
I used a different set of calculation.
- Voters vote their pocket books +1 (Romney)
- “It is the economy stupid” as James Carvile said +1 (Romney)
- The economy is not good. + 1 (Romney)
- Surprising newspaper endorsements for Romney. +1 (Romney)
- Look on face of CBS This Morning Norah O’donnell to focus group in favor of Romney + 1 (Romney)
- Obama “greedy rich people campaign” off the radar. +1 (Romney)
- Obama is to Romney what Carter was to Regan. +1 (Romney)
= Romney landslide (on the order of Reagan v. Carter).
The analysis assumes that Soros owned, Spanish based Scytl does not give Obama overwhelming wins in all 17 states whose votes they tally...
WRONG the Elephant in the room is the Tea party..
41+ Million voters extremely motivated but NEVER POLLED.. by anyone..
Voters that would and do hang up on pollsters..
Hell - I’m going for the scenario where we don’t need Ohio, but get it anyway....
Those states now have 187 EV due to population changes.
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