Skip to comments.2008 vs 2012: A look at the National Polls (Vanity)
Posted on 10/28/2012 5:53:27 PM PDT by IsaacDian
I've been keeping track of the Rasmussen and Gallup tracking polls, as well as the overall RCP national average, since Oct 1st. I used excel to turn them into graphs - and the result is pretty amazing:
RCP: Obama 2012 is doing only slightly better than McCain did in 2008, while Romney is only slightly below Obama in 2008.
Gallup: Romney is doing BETTER than Obama was in 2008, and Obama 2012 is tying McCain 2008.
Rasmussen: Again, Romney is doing almost as well as Obama did in 2008, and Obama in 2012 is only slightly above McCain.
Bottom line: We can be as confident now as the left was in 2008. We're way overperforming McCain in 2008, and Obama is way underperforming how he did in 2008.
Very good analysis. Thanks for posting!
Thanks so much for posting. You’ve done a great job.
It would also be interesting to see how these 3 polls behaved in 2008 between this point in October and election day.
Thanks for the work - nice comparison to 08.
Add to that, that Rasmussen went to a D+3 model for a long time and only this past week went to D+6. I can only imagine that he’s striking a balance between resembling the truth but also making sure there’s a market for his services. Basically a hedge not on the outcome, but between his reputation and also milking the rest of the election.
Note that David Axelrod did a ‘narrative retreat’ which is becoming a daily think in the media and O campaign, saying “Don’t look at the polls! - look at early voting!!!!!” (The media version of this is “Could be that Romney wins the popular - but doesn’t look like he’ll win the EVs!!”
But of course Axelrod wouldn’t quote stats ... to do so could get him into the territory of answering for the huge cut in the gap over 2008.
Thanks for posting that, good friends and good enemies alike will enjoy or resent me, respectively, sending it to them.
Add to that, that Rasmussen went to a D+3 model for a long time and only this past week went to D+6.
You’ll have to prove that. Conventional wisdom at FR is Raz is still at D+3.
Has there been any official commentary from Rasmussen as to his rational for the increase to +6 D?
IP and Jim O -
I can’t prove it except to say that in a thread I believe from yesterday morning, 2 people pointed to D+6, and at least one of them seemed to be a subscriber to Rasmussen - therefore having more of a view into internals.
Happy to be proven wrong, or right ... but it appeared at least twice in a thread yesterday, and if I remember the second was confirming the first.
You mentioned ‘conventional wisdom here at FR’ ... by that do you mean “we’ve been talking on FR about D+3 for a long time” ... or do you mean specifically “people have pointed out that the references yesterday to D+6 were in error” ?
Obviously if there’s a question ... I’d rather have the right number.
Very interesting, and very revealing. Thanks for posting.
Good analysis. Thank you.
The remarkable thing is that the President is popular with anyone after these last 3 1/2 years.
Posted question as a thread ... it’s important enough to be sure ...
An important thing to remember, is the polls from 2008 (where Obama performed so well) were based on poll samples (D+6-9) that ended up about right.
Whereas, Romney’s performance is even more impressive when he is polling with skewed D+3-9 samples, when the electorate will be closer to E-R+2.
Romney will win 52-47. Take it to the bank.
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