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The real story of the (likely) Republican Senate disaster
WaPo Opinions ^ | 10-29-2012 | Jonathan Bernstein

Posted on 10/30/2012 5:35:48 AM PDT by Sir Napsalot

Edited on 10/30/2012 5:45:59 AM PDT by Admin Moderator. [history]

Itís increasingly clear that whatever happens to the White House and the House of Representatives, the 2010 cycle is going to be a monumental disaster for Republicans in the Senate. The most likely outcome is probably a dead-even 47 seats for the GOP, but given that the Democrats were defending 23 seats while Republicans only had 10 to defend, Democrats would be thrilled with breaking even ó and thereís even a fairly good chance that Democrats could increase their majority a bit. ....


(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...


TOPICS: Campaign News; Parties
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; teaparty
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Um, okay, Jonathan.

Your (fake) concern is duly noted.

1 posted on 10/30/2012 5:35:51 AM PDT by Sir Napsalot
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To: Sir Napsalot

What difference does it make if a Lugar has an R behind his name if he acts like a D?


2 posted on 10/30/2012 5:38:32 AM PDT by txrefugee
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To: Sir Napsalot

What the hell his he talkin about? I have noticed, though, that the MSM has been trying to depress the senate vote in the last couple of days.


3 posted on 10/30/2012 5:40:20 AM PDT by keckkw
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To: Sir Napsalot

The analysis doesn’t seem wrong to me. We have very conservative congressmen who have served in safe House districts, who get nominated to run for the Senate, and their views turn out to be too far to the right of public opinion statewide to allow them to get elected.


4 posted on 10/30/2012 5:40:52 AM PDT by babble-on
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To: Sir Napsalot
..reality setting in with little Jonathan..so he has to TRY and limit the damage...
5 posted on 10/30/2012 5:41:45 AM PDT by Doogle ((USAF.68-73..8th TFW Ubon Thailand..never store a threat you should have eliminated))
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To: Sir Napsalot

Now that Obama is seen as lost, the corrupt MSM is trying to hold the Senate for themselves... er, for the Democrats.


6 posted on 10/30/2012 5:43:28 AM PDT by Obadiah (The corrupt MSM is the enemy of the American people.)
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To: txrefugee
First, make sure the Republicans have a majority and it does make a difference if Lugar has an R or D after his name regardless of how he votes.

First, we must have a majority and that may mean using some we wish we didn't have to use but this is the reality of the situation.

With Dims in control, we've lost everything.

7 posted on 10/30/2012 5:46:05 AM PDT by Conservativegreatgrandma
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To: Sir Napsalot

Thanks “Jonathan” for providing proof-positive that my suspicions for the past week have been correct.

The leftists and the libs know that the WH and the congress are gone.

They desperately fear losing a majority in the senate, too.

Jonathan Frankenstein or whatever his name is has just proved that they are trying to control losing the senate as well.


8 posted on 10/30/2012 5:50:55 AM PDT by Ghost of Philip Marlowe (Prepare for survival.)
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To: Sir Napsalot

This is a lot like election night ‘94, with Dan Rather babbling on at about midnight EST about some Dem having the chance of holding a Senate seat in WA, while both houses were flipping to the Republicans.


9 posted on 10/30/2012 5:54:59 AM PDT by gusopol3
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To: Ghost of Philip Marlowe

Guess the author hasn’t bothered to look at the absentee/early voting returns. Ds are being blasted. In states they led by 20, they lead by 5-7. In states they led by a little, they are trailing huge. I think Mandel will pull out a win, Brown, Heller, Cruz, Mourdock and Flake will hold, we’ll take NE and MT and WI and VA (net +5) and FL and PA are still close. And I’m forgetting someone-—who?


10 posted on 10/30/2012 5:56:15 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: Sir Napsalot

I don’t believe a word this guy says, he can’t even get the year correct.


11 posted on 10/30/2012 5:57:27 AM PDT by READINABLUESTATE ("We must hang together, gentlemen...else, we shall most assuredly hang separately." - Franklin)
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To: Sir Napsalot

We have to get rid of Harry Reid.

Then we have to elect someone besides Mitch McConnell to lead the Senate.

We need someone who still has a pair.

Youre right, I don’t know who that would be.

If the Democrat lose their majoprity we are still no better off if we do not have a leader with a pair.


12 posted on 10/30/2012 6:02:32 AM PDT by Venturer
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To: gusopol3
This is a lot like election night ‘94

I hope so.

The last three times this Senate "class" has been up, the party that held a Senate majority has lost it.

R to D in the Democrat monster year of 2006.
R to Even in the 2000, when Gore won a slight plurality.
D to R in the Republican monster year of 1994.

There were probably others, but the only close race I remember in any of these elections where the party that lost the Senate won was Tennessee in 2006 (Corker over Ford). The Senate races look close today, and if BO loses small, I can see the Democrats holding the Senate, if they win a bunch of races by a little. So we need to keep working. Hard. And make sure that they lose all of the close races.

13 posted on 10/30/2012 6:06:32 AM PDT by Pilsner
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To: babble-on

Superficial. RINOs lose too, and Dems who are too leftist for their states get elected.

No, the national media is the biggest factor. Senate candidates have to be excellent TV performers, and conservative ones must be able to withstand inventive negative “earned media” from the networks.

The networks can’t successfully attack conservative congressmen without very good cause.


14 posted on 10/30/2012 6:06:32 AM PDT by mrsmith (Dumb sluts: Lifeblood of the Media, Backbone of the Democrat Party!)
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To: babble-on

The analysis doesn’t seem wrong to me. We have very conservative congressmen who have served in safe House districts, who get nominated to run for the Senate, and their views turn out to be too far to the right of public opinion statewide to allow them to get elected.

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

In some cases, you may be correct. However, I’m more concerned that we end up nominating Senate candidates who become difficult to elect not because they are too conservative, but because they don’t know how to state their case or run their campaigns.

We had several Senate opportunities this cycle that should have been easy wins that we have virtually handed to the Dems because of bungling PR nightmares or just plain inability to be articulate. This has not only hurt their own campaigns, but has hurt the national campaign as well.

We may well yet pull the Senate out, but it should have been much, MUCH easier than this. I have stressed several times in this forum the need for an effective national election committee to vet the local candidates and prep them for national scrutiny. In a very real sense, we are only as strong as our weakest link, because the media love guilt by association.


15 posted on 10/30/2012 6:07:40 AM PDT by Eccl 10:2 (Prov 3:5 --- "Trust in the Lord with all your heart and lean not on your own understanding")
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To: txrefugee

I was no fan of Lugie here in Indiana, but he probably voted R 80% of the time.

Donnelly if elected will vote R 20% of the time, just enough so he can campaign as “bipartisan Joe”. And on any of the important votes, he’ll be a solid D.


16 posted on 10/30/2012 6:11:57 AM PDT by nascarnation (Defeat Baraq 2012. Deport Baraq 2013)
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To: LS

Hey, LS.

Long time, no FReep.

How’ve you been?

Any new books in the stores or in the pipeline?

I have an agent for my novel and it’s circulating well. No commitments yet, but we’re getting close, and I’m optimistic.

Good analysis. I’m not sure who you’re forgetting, but here in PA Casey is being tied to the HUD waste in Philly, so that isn’t going to help the DNC in this state, which went pretty solidly for Obammie the Commie in 08. Combine that with the attack on coal, which impacts the western part of the state, and we may see a more significant shift here. But I’ve given up trying to predict the intelligence of the voters en masse.


17 posted on 10/30/2012 6:13:10 AM PDT by Ghost of Philip Marlowe (Prepare for survival.)
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To: Ghost of Philip Marlowe
Great news on your novel. I just heard that Penguin/Sentinel, my publisher, has merged with Random House. So, I'm officially a Random House author now.

"A Patriot's History of the Modern World, vol. 1, From America's Exceptional Ascent to the Atomic Bomb, 1898-1945," went on sale about a week ago. It has gotten buried in the election stuff (as I warned it would), but I hope after Romney wins we'll see the floodgates open.

http://www.amazon.com/Patriots-History-Modern-World-1898-1945/dp/1595230890/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1335393328&sr=1-1

Also, check out my new film, "Rockin' the Wall" (www.rockinthewall.com) It is out on (gulp) PBS in ALL major markets in prime time. You'll see an airing schedule at the website!

18 posted on 10/30/2012 6:23:18 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: LS

You left out Akin in MO?


19 posted on 10/30/2012 6:31:14 AM PDT by txrangerette ("...hold to the truth; speak without fear". (Glenn Beck))
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To: txrangerette

That’s the one. I think he’ll win.


20 posted on 10/30/2012 6:38:38 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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