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Medina County, Ohio absentee ballot numbers, 2008 vs 2012
Typelouder | 10/30/12 | Typelouder

Posted on 10/30/2012 3:06:19 PM PDT by Typelouder

I stopped at the Medina County Board of Elections yesterday on my way home from work and received printed copies of the totals for 2008 absentee ballots requested and cast as well as the 2012 numbers as of 10/29/12 at 3:45 pm est. What I found out mirrors the data being worked by Perdogg, Ravi, and LS.

In 2008 the Democrats pulled 10,089 ballots out of 27,167 total for 37.1% and returned 9,933 out of 26,351 total for 37.7%. The Republicans in the county pulled 6,589 (24.2%) and returned 6,468 (24.5%). The remaining ballots were pulled by individuals who do not vote in the primary labeled MISC 3988 pulled / 3742 returned and by Independents labeled DECL 6501 pulled / 6208 returned.

Now onto to the 2012 General Election absentee ballot numbers.

As of Monday 10/29 the numbers are Democrats 7,631 pulled out of 27,662 total (22.6%) and 6,432 returned out of 21,236 total (30.2%). The Republicans have surpassed their 2008 totals already with another week to go. The R's have pulled 8,723 (31.5%) and returned 7,300 (34.4%).

What I find fascinating in the Medina County numbers is the more than doubling of the voters who did not vote in the primary from the 2008 levels. The 2012 MISC category shows 9,899 ballots pulled (35.7%) and 6,423 already returned (30.2%). The Independents however have declined significantly in their absentee ballot requests. The DECL category states only 1,380 ballots pulled (4.9%) and 1,057 returned (4.9%).

The remainder of the ballots are split between the Libertarian, Conservative and Green parties and total not even 30 votes.


TOPICS: Ohio; State and Local
KEYWORDS: absentee; ohio
Things to draw from these numbers: The Republicans are enthused and are getting out the vote by larger percentages than the Democrats after a lethargic performance in 2008. Please be aware that Medina County is a right leaning county (all 3 county commissioners are republicans as well as most of the other county offices, save the Prosecutor and Coroner).

Also, by the huge increase in non-primary voting individuals, the parties are mining the voter rolls and following up on those folks, encouraging them to get involved and to cast a ballot.

One other observation: With a week to go, the Dems are down 3501 votes from 2008, while the the Reps are a plus 832, for a swing of 4,333 votes as of 10/29/12.

1 posted on 10/30/2012 3:06:23 PM PDT by Typelouder
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To: Typelouder; LS

Great numbers


2 posted on 10/30/2012 3:09:31 PM PDT by barmag25
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To: Typelouder; LS; Ravi

Great numbers


3 posted on 10/30/2012 3:09:41 PM PDT by barmag25
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To: Perdogg; Ravi; LS

Ping for Medina County Absentee numbers. Please add these to your spreadsheet. Thanks for all your efforts...I hope these help somewhat.


4 posted on 10/30/2012 3:10:07 PM PDT by Typelouder
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To: barmag25

52...48 will be the national. JMHO


5 posted on 10/30/2012 3:12:00 PM PDT by Don Corleone ("Oil the gun..eat the cannoli. Take it to the Mattress.")
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To: barmag25

The scene at the BOE was almost on the verge of chaos. There were papers stacked everywhere. The first individual I asked for the numbers told me she was 5 days behind and it would take 15 to get back to me. That wasn’t going to fly.
Next door, where they had the early voting machines set up, it was packed. I have never seen that many cars in the lot at the BOE.


6 posted on 10/30/2012 3:14:29 PM PDT by Typelouder
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To: Typelouder
Thanks for the data. In 2008 McCain won Medina County 48,189 to 40,924.

In 2004 Bush won Medina 48,196 to 36,272 for Kerry. Let's hope this a repeat of 2004 at least.

7 posted on 10/30/2012 3:17:51 PM PDT by kabar
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To: Typelouder

So Dems -7 from 2008, Repubs +9 from 2008. Obama won Ohio by 5 points in 08, so if these changes are consistent across the state, Romney is in a great position.


8 posted on 10/30/2012 3:47:42 PM PDT by whitey righty
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To: Don Corleone

I only want BO at 47%. That number is what Mitt said about 47% of the votes he won’t get. Ironic, isn’t it?


9 posted on 10/30/2012 3:55:19 PM PDT by Catsrus (Ma)
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To: Don Corleone
52...48 will be the national. JMHO

52 to 47.

Mitt called it, O is all about the 47%

10 posted on 10/30/2012 3:59:00 PM PDT by NeoCaveman ("If I had a son he'd look like B.O.'s lunch" - Rin Tin Tin)
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To: Typelouder

Thanks for that county info! Medina was completely missing. I was able to get clermont so hopefully jose can update with both counties tonite.


11 posted on 10/30/2012 4:01:47 PM PDT by Ravi
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To: Typelouder; Ravi; Perdogg; LS
Thanks for the Medina County info, that really helps!

I charted out my swing counties to watch today, and completely forgot about Medina. :) I plan to monitor totals from Clark, Defiance, Delaware, Erie, Jefferson, Summit, Warren, and especially, Wood, Counties on Election night. Knowing what I know of Defiance and Wood (I live in Putnam, in-between both of them), I should be able to call the race just using those two.

Oh, and in case you gents missed seeing it - Obama for America is spending $2 million on TV in Michigan starting tomorrow.

12 posted on 10/30/2012 4:12:26 PM PDT by TonyInOhio (Defend Freedom / Defeat Obama)
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To: TonyInOhio

I don’t know if I would consider Medina a true swing county. As was pointed out above in the comments, the county did go for McCain and Bush before that. While Brunswick is the democrat stronghold (it butts up to Cuyahoga County) there remains large semi-rural and rural areas which are predominantly conservative. Medina City is the county seat, and is a mixed industrial and retail economy with a good percentage of upper middle class housing developments. Wadsworth is situated in the southeast corner and is more associated with Akron than Cleveland. It too is a right leaning area.

There are strong grassroots organizations at work here, and if I remember correctly, a sign at the local victory center listed that office as one of the leading ones in Ohio for calls made and doors knocked on.


13 posted on 10/30/2012 4:33:11 PM PDT by Typelouder
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To: Typelouder

Hey! I live in that northern most part (just off of Boston road on the county line) :-P I’ve only seen about 3-4 0bama signs in Brunswick on my way to work in Richfield. I’ve seen about the same number of Romney signs. It’s the blasted Betty Sutton signs I can’t stand! :-)


14 posted on 10/30/2012 4:43:44 PM PDT by fx45guy
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To: Typelouder

Good analysis and good news, Typelouder!


15 posted on 10/30/2012 5:19:13 PM PDT by SharpRightTurn ( White, black, and red all over--America's affirmative action, metrosexual president.)
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To: Typelouder

What are u considered? Have u voted in a primary?


16 posted on 10/30/2012 5:25:33 PM PDT by Ravi
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To: Ravi

Ravi,
What the clerk said was that the MISC category referred to those who haven’t voted in a primary for some time. The DECL category (must be short for declined) is the Independent category.

It does puzzle me that the DECL (Independent) totals have dropped substantially in four years. I’ll try to stop at the BOE again in the next day or two for clarification.


17 posted on 10/30/2012 5:41:32 PM PDT by Typelouder
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To: Typelouder

Big reason?

Jim and Lisa Woods help lead a great Tea Party movement out there.

Why do you think Renacci is in Congress now?

Good, diligent, patriotic Tea Party Americans devoting their lives to saving the Republic.


18 posted on 10/30/2012 8:32:41 PM PDT by Sapwolf (Talkers are usually more articulate than doers, since talk is their specialty. -Sowell)
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To: Sapwolf

Don’t overlook the contributions from the Wadsworth 9.12 and the Medina Tea Party Patriots. You’ll find much of the MTTP Action Alerts get cut and pasted into MCFAN emails.

MCFAN does do a good job at what they do. The 9.12 remains non-partisan which gives them the ability to be critical of politicians, which they are known to do. Every elected official needs their feet held to the fire.


19 posted on 10/31/2012 2:31:58 AM PDT by Typelouder
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To: Typelouder

MTTP should be MTPP. Its early....


20 posted on 10/31/2012 2:34:05 AM PDT by Typelouder
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To: TonyInOhio; Typelouder; Ravi; Perdogg; LS

Is the storm (power outages) going to factor in to Ohio? I’ve heard the eastern part of the state (which is more conservative) has some areas without power? Any thoughts?


21 posted on 10/31/2012 2:40:49 PM PDT by lwd
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To: lwd

No idea.


22 posted on 10/31/2012 2:56:48 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: LS

I read on twitter that the GOP was overperforming in Warren Co OH.


23 posted on 10/31/2012 3:12:30 PM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: LS
I found the outage map from First Energy which seems to be the major provider (there's also Duke and AEP but their outages are miniscule)

http://outages.firstenergycorp.com/oh.html

Loraine county (which is cleveland) was 'hit hardest' with currently >122K "customers". I don't know how up-to-date/accurate they keep their info....fwiw

I would imagine they will restore cleveland faster than some of the rural areas.

24 posted on 10/31/2012 4:14:41 PM PDT by lwd
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To: LS
I found the outage map from First Energy which seems to be the major provider (there's also Duke and AEP but their outages are miniscule)

http://outages.firstenergycorp.com/oh.html

Loraine county (which is cleveland) was 'hit hardest' with currently >122K "customers". I don't know how up-to-date/accurate they keep their info....fwiw

I would imagine they will restore cleveland faster than some of the rural areas.

25 posted on 10/31/2012 4:20:05 PM PDT by lwd
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