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Mitt Romney set to win, maybe by a mile: Republican momentum makes prez desperate
The Boston Herald ^ | October 31, 2012 | Michael Graham

Posted on 10/30/2012 11:18:56 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

One week from today, the Boston Herald’s front page will either read “Obama Pulls Out Victory” Or “Romney Wins.” (Actually, given that this is the Herald the headline will be something clever like, “He’s Barack In Charge!” or “Sweet Mitt-ory!”)

I predict the latter. One week from today, Mitt wins.

I’ll even go a step farther. I’ll ask the question poll watchers across America are thinking but afraid to ask: Is this election over?

If your source of news is MSNBC or the Boston Globe-Democrat, obviously not. If anything, you think President Obama is on the verge of a massive sweep from North Carolina to Nevada.

But if you’ve been watching the polls and the campaigns at all objectively, you’re starting to see a picture develop. One where Romney’s the winner well before bedtime.

I believe we’re on the verge of a solid Romney win for two reasons. One is the objective evidence. The other is the ugly desperation of the Obama campaign in its final days.

First the numbers. And let’s start with the big one: Before Gallup suspended polling due to Hurricane Sandy, Mitt Romney was at or above 50 percent among likely voters for 14 consecutive days. No candidate above 50 percent at this point has ever lost the presidential race.

Ever.

The president, on the other hand, has peaked at 47 percent. The Battleground Poll model shows Obama losing 52 percent to 47 percent. Rasmussen daily tracking has Obama losing 49 percent to 47 percent. Pew has him tied: 47 percent to 47 percent. But more important, all the polls show Obama sliding or stuck. None show any upward movement.

Obama supporters are quick to tell you “the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day.” Two things: a) that’s what candidates who are behind always say; b) this is election day.

Thanks to early voting, millions of votes have already been cast. Four years ago on this day — Halloweek — Gallup released a poll of folks who’d already voted and found Obama was beating John McCain by 15 points.

This year? He’s losing to Mitt Romney 52 percent to 45 percent — a set swing of 22 points. The wrong way.

But who cares if Obama loses the popular vote (and he will, by the way)? All that matters is winning the Electoral College vote in the “swing states!” That’s Obama’s path to victory!

OK. But what is a swing state? Forget Virginia and Ohio. Obama’s lost so much ground he’s been forced to send Joe Biden to Pennsylvania and Bill Clinton to Minnesota — a state so blue Ronald Reagan never carried it.

The president, on the other hand, is only up by 6 among the loony-left granola-crunchers of Oregon.

Those are the numbers. The campaign Obama’s running looks even worse.

Between desperate, last-second proposals for a “Secretary of Business” and embarrassing ads comparing voting for Obama to a girl losing her virginity, you can smell the desperation from the Obama camp.

These are the juvenile stunts of a second-tier congressional race, not the campaign of an incumbent president. Then again, has any other president posted a picture of his opponent in a dunce cap? Or called his opponent a “bullsh***er” on the record? Obama’s done both.

The Obama campaign is angry, it’s negative and it acts like — to quote Bill Clinton — its feelings are hurt. In a word: Losing.

More and more people sense it. Ben Domenech wrote at RealClearPoli tics.com about an “undertow” that seems to be pulling Obama’s support away. It’s not that Obama’s supporters have turned on him. They’ve just abandoned him. They’ve drifted away. Like so many of us, they’re just done with Obama.

If I’m wrong, I’m counting on you to mock me for it mercilessly next Wednesday. But I’m not wrong.

And isn’t it interesting how many people already seem to know it.


TOPICS: Campaign News; Issues; Polls
KEYWORDS: 2012; economy; obama; polls; romney; talkradio
Comments?
1 posted on 10/30/2012 11:19:11 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Obama, the affirmative action president, has never had to earn anything himself. Romney is such a straight arrow that there isn’t any dirt to find on him by the Obama campaign’s private detectives.


2 posted on 10/30/2012 11:29:17 PM PDT by Paleo Conservative
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Nope. You have it right and I think Mitt is going to win bigger than many are currently thinking.


3 posted on 10/30/2012 11:29:50 PM PDT by Nifster
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To: 2ndDivisionVet; Peter W. Kessler


Romney/Ryan WINS!!! ......................................................... FRegards


4 posted on 10/30/2012 11:31:00 PM PDT by gonzo ( Buy more ammo, dammit! You should already have the firearms ... FRegards)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I’m still counting on a super close election with a narrow Romney win.

Demographics are such that GOP blowouts are extremely tough to get, and I actually think the Pres. will get some positive bounce from the hurricane.

I sure would love to be wrong and see Graham’s scenario play out instead though.


5 posted on 10/30/2012 11:32:35 PM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

The communist DemocRATS’ campaign “ads” in Arizona are enough to make a zombie puke. The ‘RATS are really down there in the sewer. Desperation isn’t pretty.


6 posted on 10/30/2012 11:34:01 PM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (Osama bin Laden is dead, Chrysler moved to Italy and China.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I have been calling this for the last nine months, much, much, to my wife’s annoyance, because until the last three weeks all I could say to support my opinion was my “gut.” I just never felt that a president who has failed this badly could convince anyone other than his delusional true believers to reelect him. Plus, he could never get over that 50% number, which is death to an incumbent.


7 posted on 10/30/2012 11:37:28 PM PDT by colorado tanker
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To: FlingWingFlyer

I predict a heavy, heavy demand on bath salts.

They’ll be in each other’s face..


8 posted on 10/30/2012 11:38:52 PM PDT by Hardraade (http://junipersec.wordpress.com (I will fear no muslim))
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Romney 275 (Wins WI, IA, CO, VA, NC, FL, NH)
Obama 263 (Wins OH, MI, PA, NV)

Note: Ohio is not critical in 2012


9 posted on 10/30/2012 11:43:09 PM PDT by entropy12 (Romney/Ryan 2012... Send Obama back to Chicago/Hawaii/Kenya/Indonesia wherever)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

That 47% number is going down in history


10 posted on 10/30/2012 11:44:50 PM PDT by GeronL (http://asspos.blogspot.com)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

“The president, on the other hand, is only up by 6 among the loony-left granola-crunchers of Oregon.”

Don’t even get me started on Washington state - 53%(O) - 41%(R).


11 posted on 10/30/2012 11:45:58 PM PDT by 21twelve (So I [God] gave them over to their stubborn hearts to follow their own devices. Psalm 81:12)
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To: FlingWingFlyer

I wonder if Lea Dunham will still want to get laid by Barry Soetorro after the election? lol


12 posted on 10/31/2012 12:05:56 AM PDT by AmericanSamurai
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I’m still wretching over that “lose your virginity to obama ad”. lol


13 posted on 10/31/2012 12:07:54 AM PDT by AmericanSamurai
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To: entropy12

Obama will not take Ohio

He is polling ahead there by 2%


14 posted on 10/31/2012 12:34:10 AM PDT by Fai Mao
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To: Fai Mao

Romney is ahead by 2% in Ohio

I mistyped


15 posted on 10/31/2012 12:36:07 AM PDT by Fai Mao
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
I'm hearing this "Landslide" stuff more and more. It make's me nervous.

My mind tells me people can't be dumb enough to elect the Muslim again, but then a poll comes out with him leading. Then the toe sucker comes on Hanity and says it's in the bag. Then someone interviews some college kids and they don't even know who Geo. Washington was and that sinking feeling comes back over me. I fall back to trusting America to do the right thing, but I have been disappointed before. I was jumping up and down when we wouldn't impeach Clinton, but this is bigger, IMHO. I think if Obama gets a second shot at the apple, America is finished,....literally. I cannot even imagine a crazy doped up college kid voting for no jobs after college.

16 posted on 10/31/2012 1:32:32 AM PDT by chuckles
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To: Nifster

I think so too.


17 posted on 10/31/2012 1:37:48 AM PDT by 1035rep
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Two thoughts:

That after I vote next Tuesday, a lot of people will be quietly smiling and nodding at each other and saying “Happy 1980.” The joy will be subdued throughout the day and will reach a crescendo that evening.

People will be flashing R+R gang signs at each other and smiling.

R+R gang signs?

Curl forefinger against thumb, stick out middle and ring fingers, to make an “R.”


18 posted on 10/31/2012 1:47:45 AM PDT by thecodont
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Yeah...he’s desperate. I heard a campaign commercial where he was the only one spewing his lies. 5 million jobs, auto industry saved....read MY plan, more promises, lies and bullshit.

He has sunk to pleading (lying) in person on air without Letterman-Leno-Stuart, and not depending on Biden, the Wookie, DWS, et al....


19 posted on 10/31/2012 3:06:02 AM PDT by Gaffer
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To: Nifster

I also believe it is big....BIG. They’ve been busting at the seams trying to get R voters discouraged and to shore up their core (uber libs and minorities) even at the expense of white men, religious women, Jews, etc.... it hasn’t worked and the MSM can’t hold it for him anymore, at least not with trying to help him cover up Benghazi AND hide the tide against him.


20 posted on 10/31/2012 3:08:51 AM PDT by Gaffer
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To: 2ndDivisionVet; All

Would not surprise me Romney does exactly what this writer claims. Romney has all the momentum

And, Sandy has little to do with the outcome. Most of the states affected are Obama states, anyway...and, it is liberals who tend to stay home when weather is bad

When states like Minnesota are in Romney’s grasp...you know Obama has major problems. I think George McGovern even won Minnesota when he got slaughtered in ‘72


21 posted on 10/31/2012 3:20:45 AM PDT by SeminoleCounty (Political maturity is realizing that the "R" next to someone's name does not mean "conservative")
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I think we’re about to see a glittering example of the Bradley effect. A lot of white people (and others) don’t want to vocally complain about the black, quota-hire guy doing a bad job. They have decided to wait for election day to quietly do away with this hideous embarrassment. They won’t complain out loud but they will make their dissatisfaction known.


22 posted on 10/31/2012 3:46:59 AM PDT by muir_redwoods (Don't fire until you see the blue of their helmets)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

The election isn’t over until Candy Crowley sings.


23 posted on 10/31/2012 3:51:35 AM PDT by matt1234 (As Obama sowed in the Arab Spring, so he is reaping in the Arab Fall.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I think we will all realize after the Romney-Ryan win that, in the name of giving hope to those on the left, the 2010 mid-terms were completely ignored in the run-up to this election.

From 2008 to 2010, there’s an acute upward trajectory in Republican fervor and turnout. All the institutions on the left—academia, the media, and the Democratic Party ground-game apparatus were in place. None had any impact on the outcome. Lest we forget, the media, for example, shilled for each and every Dem candidate, in state, congressional, gubernatorial and municipal races, and they still lost in monumental fashion.

Let’s ask ourselves the question “What did Obama and the liberals do in the ensuing two years to change not only the outcome for 2012, but the trajectory from the election in 2008 to the ones in 2010?

It must be factored in that 18 to 20 year olds, still steeped in Obama worship coming from the institutions still owned by the left, may be predisposed to Obama. But they have PARENTS, who may have been able to counter the indoctrination, since parents, those who turned out in droves in 2010 at least, know what happened in 2008, and may strap the young’uns to the couch on Nov 6.

So it’s hard not to see a decisive victory for R-R in 2012, and all our consternation may have been engineered by those who ignored the 2010 shellacking, and wished us to do the same.


24 posted on 10/31/2012 4:35:35 AM PDT by wayoverontheright
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I refuse to gloat until next Tuesday night.

Karma, baby!


25 posted on 10/31/2012 6:33:02 AM PDT by hattend (Firearms and ammunition...the only growing industries under the Obama regime.)
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To: wayoverontheright
Excellent assessment, only one addition needed = 2010 shellacking, which came about in large part as a direct result of the TEA PARTY MOVEMENT!

One thing the MSM and political pundents have ignored and totally underestimated is the fact that the Tea Party hasn't gone away, we are still here, still conservative and still active. The only difference is we are less visible (the MSM totally ignored or purposely underestimated and misrepresented our numbers and our message when we were openly visible and vocal anyway so we "went underground" and continued doing what we said we would do and make our millions upon millions of voices heard at the ballott box in 2010. 2012 is no different, the Tea Party is stronger today and we are, Lord willing, about to continue the work we started in 2010 by sweeping Obama and the Democrats out of power via a tsunami, landslide victory for RR and numerous conservative and Republican (yes we recognize the difference) candidates.

The Tea Party is alive and well and we aren't going anywhere until the job is done!

26 posted on 10/31/2012 9:36:08 AM PDT by Jmouse007 (Lord deliver us from evil, in Jesus name, amen.)
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To: SeminoleCounty

27 posted on 10/31/2012 12:10:07 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
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To: All

Mitt will carry all the Bush states and might win one or two surprise states. Obama will win all the reliable states, but by much smaller margins which doesn’t really matter. The final tally will be something like 51 to 46 popular.
If Obama wins, he will have negative coat tails, he will lose senate seats and house seats.
If Romney wins, he will have short coat tails but the repubs will move to 50 seats in the senate.


28 posted on 10/31/2012 12:18:32 PM PDT by newnhdad (Where will you be during the Election Riots of 2012/2013?)
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To: gonzo

Geez, that’s a scary photo.

See ya Tuesday, I hope.


29 posted on 11/01/2012 1:39:39 PM PDT by Peter W. Kessler (Dirt is for racing... asphalt is for getting there.)
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To: Peter W. Kessler; mcmuffin

Good luck, pally! Fair skies .................................................... FRegards


30 posted on 11/01/2012 3:23:50 PM PDT by gonzo ( Buy more ammo, dammit! You should already have the firearms ... FRegards)
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To: gonzo; Peter W. Kessler

Ah yes,
That’s gospel!!


31 posted on 11/02/2012 2:53:06 AM PDT by mcmuffin ("Wanting your country back is not the same thing as working to take it back.")
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