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Obama's Failure With Whites, Independents Will Sink Him
RealClearPolitics ^ | November 3, 2012 | Ben Domenech

Posted on 11/06/2012 8:46:29 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet

The time has come to make a prediction about the 2012 election, and I’m not going to shirk the task. I’ve spent the past few weeks walking you through the thought process I’ve had about the decisions made by both campaigns, the missteps and missed opportunities on both sides, and the central question seems to me to be this: in the long term, demographic trend lines indicate that President Obama’s base is larger, more diverse, and allows for more paths to victory. But elections aren’t in the long term, they’re snapshots, as the White House is fond of saying every first Friday of the month, a moment in time when Americans assess the candidates and make a choice. And for all the long term factors which favor Obama’s approach to politics, in this election I expect the American people to choose to take a different path for the next four years.

You could go blind looking over the polling data in this election and attempting to analyze the internal information and the trendlines of key groups. Dan McLaughlin's article does a good job of summing up the limitations of polling, and the divergence of state and national polls, which was clearly on front and center display in this cycle. Some allege bias behind this, but I see more a lack of information, even about something as simple as what percentage of cell phone voters you ought to include in your assessments. But a few points have stood out to me as remarkable for their consistency over the past month, and for how little the Obama campaign has done to disrupt them. And these points all lean toward a Romney victory...

(Excerpt) Read more at ...

TOPICS: Issues
KEYWORDS: obama; polls; romney; whites
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1 posted on 11/06/2012 8:46:34 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

call it Revenge of the Bitter Clingers...

2 posted on 11/06/2012 8:48:31 AM PST by Buckeye McFrog
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I’m watching Fox News and I’m worried. Sounds like Ohio is going for 0. I’m turning off the TV and signing off FR for a while, at least. I never have a drink before 5 pm and I think I may need one to deal with the results.

3 posted on 11/06/2012 8:50:07 AM PST by old and tired
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Image Hosted by
4 posted on 11/06/2012 8:51:54 AM PST by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I was listening to Brian Susseman Radio show just now, One RNC guys was saying, according to Mitt internals, it is more close to Dick Morris prediction.

5 posted on 11/06/2012 8:52:25 AM PST by jennychase
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To: old and tired

The polls are open until 7:30....turn off the TV...

6 posted on 11/06/2012 8:56:14 AM PST by mom4melody
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

The slow ones find out that Obama’s free lunch plan isn’t free after all and socialism never works.
Obama won because to many people wanting a hand out not a hane up.

7 posted on 11/06/2012 8:56:20 AM PST by Vaduz
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Anybody know how its going for fake-a-hontas in MA?

I haven’t seen a “post your voting in MA” thread yet.

8 posted on 11/06/2012 8:57:09 AM PST by NeverForgetBataan (I am become Barry... destroyer of wealth)
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To: jennychase

Wow! Seriously? MANDATE!! Let’s hope we take over the Senate.

9 posted on 11/06/2012 9:00:37 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
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To: jennychase

I’ve been saying this since before the primaries were over, this thing ISN’T GOING TO BE CLOSE! Its dillusional to think this was going to be a squeaker, I don’t give a damn what the polls say.

Now GOTV as though it was neck and neck, but Obama never had a prayer this cycle... the very idea this thing is neck and neck is laughable.

Romney will carry Ohio, and do so by 4 points or so if not more, he’ll win IA, IN, and will take 2 out of 3 at least of WI, PA and MI.

FL,NC,VA and CO will all go Romney as well.

This isn’t going to be close folks, never was.

GOTV!! Fight like its 50-50 but the very idea this is a close race is daydream believing by the left and their MSM allies.

Obama will be 42-43%.. Sandy and its fallout might get him a point or 2 above that.. but the idea this is some neck and neck horserace is utterly ignorant.

10 posted on 11/06/2012 9:04:14 AM PST by HamiltonJay
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To: mom4melody

Some polls (Michigan) is open until 8 pm.

11 posted on 11/06/2012 9:05:02 AM PST by madison10
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To: HamiltonJay

You’re one of those really helpful Freepers who have been keeping me sane these past few weeks.

Thanks HamiltonJay!

12 posted on 11/06/2012 9:06:29 AM PST by Shadow44
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To: HamiltonJay


13 posted on 11/06/2012 9:13:08 AM PST by annieokie
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
My white arse is not voting for obama’s white half... I can't help it if the black half of his arse is connected to his white half. My entire family and all of my employees have voted this morning... 100% ROMNEY!


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To: HamiltonJay

I believe he will do all that, AND, I have been predicting strongly a race nobody believes, and nobody is talking about, but I am strongly confident that Romney will take IL, everybody thinks I am crazy, but I am standing by it, I even have money on it.

15 posted on 11/06/2012 9:25:39 AM PST by dsrtsage (One half of all people have below average IQ. In the US the number is 54%)
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To: Shadow44

I just don’t get all the hand wringing, never have.

Its been obvious since january the electorate has given up on Obama... all they needed to know is that the option they had to replace him with wasn’t a bigger threat.

With the selection of Romney this was not going to be possible.

Obama spent 100’s of Millions of dollars trying to convince americans Romney was the Anti-Christ... and all it took was 90 minutes (actually about 15 minutes) for those americans to see Romney (when seeing him unfiltered and unedited) was indeed a reasonable option... and that was it.. election was over.

Since then Obama has not had momentum 1 single day, not one news cycle.. Big Bird, Binders and Bayonettes?? Really, do you really thin ANYONE not already in the tank for the guy was going to be swayed by such nonsense?

Think people think.. stop living by the polls... stop buying into the nonsense... look at the fundamental realities.

Economy has been in the toilet for 4 years, and NOTHING this bozo has done has helped. A few days before the election in Ohio and he can’t even get 20k people to show up for him with Bruce Springsteen giving a free concert!!! in a town of 300k+ Come on Folks! Control your emotions and think!

He’s getting crowds on the day before election day of well under 10k!!! Meanwhile Romney has been having to turn away supporters at events for weeks!

Everything indicates that Republican turnout will swamp 2010 numbers, Even serious Dem pundits aren’t arguing the he’ll win the popular vote, but are clinging to the he’ll win the EC.. which is NONSENSE.

Obama has been pandering to his BASE!!! The week of the election and he’s PANDERING TO HIS BASE!! Do you think that’s going to get you a win??? Seriously. STOP IT!

Romney buys 5 Million bucks of ads in PA which has been in play the entire time, but ignored, and Obama is out of money to even respond and has to go to BofA to borrow money to buy 650k worth of ads to attempt to counter it!!

Does any of this come across as a “close” election to you? Seriously.. Does it???

All year we’ve heard Romney can’t win without OH.. when in fact that’s nonsense.. its OBAMA who has no path left if he loses OH! The very idea that the midwest/rustbelt was going to be a firewall for a guy who’s insulted and attacked the church and spit on working blue class voters for 4 years was nonsense! You don’t win the rustbelt without the white working class voters! At least not states like OH, IN, IA and WI!!! You can pull off the states with the supercities without them, but only if you completely swamp the vote with MI, Philly and CHI... but otherwise forget it! And frankly even in 2008 Obama carried these voters in those states.. he’s losing huge portions of them this time around!

The idea he’s going to keep it close and pull out the EC is desperation, not reality.

Go, look at the pictures of the rallys this past week.. who’s got the crowds and who’s addressing empty seats??? Who’s pandering to their base being petty and negative, and who’s offering a positive broad message?? Who’s acting desperate, and who’s acting confident? Stop letting spin from the MSM or DU or your uncle roofus affect you.


Momentum is EVERYTHING in any competition, forget the poll numbers, think, think! Can you think of 1 day since the night of the first debate (and even before that) That Obama was carrying momentum? IN message? IN crowds? In news topics? in ANYTHING???? I know I sure can’t.

You guys are letting poll numbers affect what you are feeling and falling prey to propoganda!! STOP IT!!

Romney takes the stage at 11PM on a monday night to an overflow crowd of 10k+ in NH last night! Obama in OH has Jay-Z and Springsteen and can’t even get 20k to show up the night before an election!

STOP STOP STOP!!! FIGHT HARD!! Don’t get complacent, but stop buying into numbers and statistical analysis and trust what you see!

16 posted on 11/06/2012 9:28:09 AM PST by HamiltonJay
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To: dsrtsage

I don’t know about IL.. but I wouldn’t say its impossible.. IL will come down to Chicago (like most of the supercity rust belt states) IL being the toughest becaust its supercity is just so rediculously overrepresented.. Chicago is something like 22-25% of the states population.

HOWEVER if Chicago dems are dejected it is possible... but a long shot.

I think MN is more likely to be a suprise swing than IL, but if IL falls, then certainly every other rust belt state including MN will fall. If Obama can’t hold IL he won’t hold anything in the rust belt.

Just a few more hours and we know for sure.

17 posted on 11/06/2012 9:34:18 AM PST by HamiltonJay
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To: HamiltonJay

I have to admit, I do think it’s garbage that all of the polling is weighted so disproportionate. Once you and Ravi and LS etc. pointed it out for me I worried a lot less.

Now I’m making calls to help GOTV and make PA a Red State for the first time in my life!

18 posted on 11/06/2012 9:36:18 AM PST by Shadow44
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To: HamiltonJay
When the greater part of Obama's newer voters moved on into their third year of un employment, or under employment, the die was cast. The race belonged to the Republicans, and it would be an easy win with the right candidate, or a difficult win with the wrong candidate.

Once word was out that 53% of recent college graduates (since the last year of "W""s second term in fact) were UNEMPLOYED, there was no way the clown from Chicago could win ~ Michelle Bachmann's husband could have won this one.

19 posted on 11/06/2012 9:36:55 AM PST by muawiyah
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Whites & independents?

False premise - He’s failed EVERYBODY (not counting the cpusa)!

Why read further?

20 posted on 11/06/2012 9:39:34 AM PST by jonno (Having an opinion is not the same as having the answer...)
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