Why Republicans Think They've Got the Math for a Senate Majority

National Journal ^ | 07/14/2013 | By Alex Roarty

[SeekAndFind]

For the first time this year, Republican strategists believe they're within striking distance of taking back control of the Senate, thanks to untimely Democratic Senate retirements and red-state Democratic recruits deciding not to run for Congress. The latest blow to Democrats: former Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer's surprising decision Saturday to pass up a campaign.

Republican recognize that they only need to win three Senate seats in the most of conservative of states -- Arkansas, Louisiana and Alaska -- and Mitch McConnell could be a Majority Leader in 2015. (That is, if McConnell can hold onto his own Kentucky seat.) The latest developments underline how punishing the map is for Democrats for 2014, and little margin for error they have.

Democrats can afford to lose up to five Senate seats and still maintain their majority, but they already risk conceding over half that number before campaigning even gets underway.

Schweitzer was the type of grade-A recruit who could nearly guarantee victory despite Montana's Republican leanings. His near-universal name recognition, blunt outspokenness, and statewide organization made him a heavy favorite, especially when Republicans had yet to field a first-tier challenger. Big Sky Country was beginning to look like a long-shot for the GOP.

But somewhere along the way, Schweitzer got cold feet. Montana Democratic officials were expecting Schweitzer to announce his campaign earlier this week, and were caught by surprise when they didn't hear from the former governor. Democrats are claiming -- after the fact -- that they were concerned about vulnerabilities in his background, but Republicans claim that the difficult political environment for Democrats in Montana also played a role.

"We did our homework and there was a lot of rust under Schweitzer's hood – a LOT of rust," said Brad Dayspring, spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee. "Just as important though is that Schweitzer looked at the race and realized he couldn't win in light of how unpopular the Democrat agenda of higher taxes, bankrupting spending, and the ObamaCare train wreck is in Montana these days."

Indeed, Schweitzer's backing out is illustrative to a mounting recruiting problem for Senate Democrats in conservative states, which make up a disproportionate share of the battleground matchups in 2014. The party has failed to persuade any of its top choices in West Virginia, where Rep. Nick Rahall and attorney Nick Preservati passed on bids. In South Dakota, the party missed out on former Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin and the son of retiring Sen. Tim Johnson. In Georgia, Rep. John Barrow decided not to run, but the party rallied behind Michelle Nunn, daughter of former senator Sam Nunn. The party's biggest red-state recruit is Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes, whose campaign against McConnell has gotten off to a rocky start.

Possible Democratic candidates for the Montana Senate seat include Stephanie Schriock, president of Emily's List, Denise Juneau, state superintendent of public instruction, Monica Lindeen, the state's auditor, Brian Morris, a state Supreme Court justice, and state Sen. Kendall Van Dyke.

On the Republican side, all eyes are on freshman Rep. Steve Daines, who comfortably won the state's at-large House seat last year.

"We remain confident that Democrats can hold the Montana seat and the overall math still favors Democrats next year," said Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Executive Director Guy Cecil. "Only three Democratic incumbents have lost reelection in the last decade. Our incumbents are positioned to win, we've already recruited a strong challenger to Mitch McConnell and Republicans have failed to expand the senate map into blue and purple states."

That's been the Democratic saving grace this election year -- that Republicans have struggled to recruit top candidates in the traditional battlegrounds -- against Sen. Al Franken in Minnesota, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire, Sen. Mark Udall in Colorado and for open seats in Iowa and Michigan.

But if Democrats struggle to put Montana in play without Schweitzer, that means the path to a majority will run through Louisiana and Alaska, not the more Obama-friendly confines of the Midwest and Northeast. That's an unnerving proposition for Democrats, given how badly the party has struggled outside their comfort zone lately.

[unixfox]

They better sharpen their pencils if they even THINK they have a chance.

[MrChips]

Gee! And yeah, they did so well in the 2012 elections!

[cripplecreek]

Gonna need more than math.

They’re going to need a positive message and actual plan for American restoration.

[longtermmemmory]

stupid party wishful thinking is not mathmatics.

has the gop had any math problem correct?

Dole, Mccain, Romney?

[Gaffer]

Republican majority or not. The GOPe Senate largely suffers from a fatal case of appeasing, backstabbing, lying, sniveling, deranged, snakebelly betrayal to conservative Americans. Without a strong Conservative leader, either in the Senate, or in the White House, these country club Senators will continue to sell us down the river for a dinner party invitation with media a$$holes, meetings with the opposition, and the power they still have to feather their own corrupt nests.

[Servant of the Cross]

Six states to flip that even Romney carried + LA should be slam dunk pick ups.

[cotton1706]

Yeah, that’s what they said the last time. And every one of the establishment nominees went down in flames.

Although, this class of seats is a good one. This is the same class where the republicans held their ground in the Clinton reelection, and took back the senate from the democrats in 2002 after Jim Jeffords betrayal. The 2008 tide was a well-funded fluke. Most of the seats either have freshmen or retirements.

The keys to a senate majority will be good candidates defeating moderate establishent nominees. Oh, and for an actual majority, we need to defeat Lindsey Graham. And getting rid of Collins, McConnell, Corny, Enzi and Alexander in primaries would be nice too!

[rellimpank]

—don’t count your chickens before they hatch-—

[StormEye]

A Republican Senate majority. So What! The Republicans don’t know how to use a majority. And if they should gain the majority they would be embarrassed and apologetic about it and trip over themselves trying to please Obama and his Democrats — not to mention the Democrat News Media in America. And then there are RINOS — Democrat Party collaborators among them. Nothing much would get done.

[InterceptPoint]

There are 45 Republicans, 53 Democrats and 2 Independents who vote with the Dems in the Senate going into the 2014 election. For me that means the GOP needs a net pickup of SIX SEATS in the 2014 election to control the Senate.

A five vote pickup would lead to a 50/50 tie that would be broken with a Biden vote for the Dems. Based on past performance (2012) this looks like a tall hill to climb. But, as always, fingers crossed.

[grania]

SO WHAT.....McCain, Graham, Rubio, Flake, Ayotte, Murkowski,....the 'pubs would have to compensate for the traitors before we had a majority. Besides that, with the CheapLabor globalist puppet masters will have too much control over the nomination process.

Keep in mind GWB was president and had majorities in both the HOR and US Senate. He started a lot of the initiatives that Obama followed through on during that time.

We really are dependent on a conservative HOR inspiring Senate conservatives.

[SeekAndFind]

Here’s their math (remember, this is NOT a Presidential election, it is state by state ):

There are states to concentrate on and they fall into two groups .... “Take Back” states and “Upgrade” states as follows:

Take Back (from Dem incumbent)

Alaska – Begich
Arkansas – Pryor
Colorado – Udall
Louisiana – Landrieu
Montana – Baucus
North Carolina – Hagan
South Dakota - Johnson
West Virginia - Rockefeller

Upgrade (from lesser conservative)

Georgia – Chambliss
South Carolina – Graham
Tennessee – Alexander
Texas – Cornyn
Wyoming - Enzi

With the exception of Colorado (should be GOP), every state went Romney in 2012.

[C. Edmund Wright]

Yes, well put. Those who are comparing this to 2012 don’t know what they’re talking about. The more proper analogy would be 2010. And Obama Care / IRS will work against the Dems bigtime in ‘14.

[Starboard]

Republicans wouldn’t know what to do with a majority if they had one. Too many weak RINOs and a propensity to maintain the status quo of expansive government. They have a majority in the House and have largely squandered many opportunities to constrain the Obama regime.

[Starboard]

They’re going to need a positive message and actual plan for American restoration.
*******
Even if they have a message and a plan, they will still fail on execution. Unlike the Democrats, Republicans simply don’t play to win. There’s no real leadership.

[Servant of the Cross]

... this class of seats is a good one. This is the same class where the republicans held their ground in the Clinton reelection, and took back the senate from the democrats in 2002 after Jim Jeffords betrayal. The 2008 tide was a well-funded fluke. Most of the seats either have freshmen or retirements.

And 2008 is the 'fluke' of the first Black president 0bama coronation wave.

There are at least 13 states that can elect a candidate to the Senate that is more like Ted Cruz than Juan McQueeg.

[Starboard]

stupid party wishful thinking is not mathmatics.
*******
Stupid and WEAK party. Too many appeasers and people content to compromise with Dems. It is amusing to watch the Dems manipulate Republicans year after year using the same old Democrat playbook and very predictable tactics. And the Republicans are outmaneuvered every time.

[Servant of the Cross]

The more proper analogy would be 2010. And Obama Care / IRS will work against the Dems bigtime in ‘14.

Exactly. All we need to do is educate the candidates 'media-wise' (Newt Camp) and prohibit them from ever uttering the word 'rape'.

[Joe 6-pack]

There have been some rumblings here in Louisiana about Elbert Guillory taking a run against Landrieu.

It would make for an interesting race...

[C. Edmund Wright]

Good idea....but I”m wondering....is the Obama White House celebrating the Zimmerman verdict? You know, a way to put Obama on the ballot in 2014 by way of Trayvon????

That could “f” things up.....

[Buckeye Battle Cry]

The Republicans need to revisit their analysis. The immigration reform fiasco is having the same effect as the McCain nomination and the disastrous Romney scorched earth primary campaign - too many conservative voters are more than happy to sit out the election rather than tacitly supporting the lesser of two evils.

In the long run, that’s what the establishment wants. It allows them to retain control of the party. It’s the country that suffers as a result. Thank you Karl Rove.

[chris37]

What would they even do with it if they had it?

[SoFloFreeper]

Whatever. They will have idiots like Murkowski and McCain and Graham and Collins who vote with Democrats...so what use is it to have more Rs than Ds if so many of the Rs are just Ds in disguise?

[bmwcyle]

They thought Romney would win.

[mad_as_he$$]

Someone allowed these idiots to have sharpened pencils?

[klimeckg]

Who cares. I hope the whole thing implodes! Better yet, let’s just get Jeb Bush’s advice on this, after all, that’s who they plan on seating as the next POTUS with or without the peoples vote. Haven’t we learned anything since 2012 election? Unless there is a revolution, it will never be resolved, and even a revolt won’t really solve it, it will just set up another situation for greedy power mongers to set themselves up to be the next set of idiots.

Sarcasm :-)

Look at my post dates, it’s been a long time, because it’s out of our control.

[Vaduz]

It all depends on how many get off their lazy a$$ and vote.
The last two elections prove that.

[grania]

I'm impressed with your list. Can we be as sure as possible that they won't support the invasion and the compromise (sellout) on the pathway to citizenship?

I'm a little more hopeful with Cruz gaining traction and the HOR 'pubs (fingers croseed) standing firm.

[CPT Clay]

We also need to Prioritize those seats. Ie you get more bang for your buck is small inexpensive media markets. Also “upgrading” has its risk as well. Ask the folks in Indiana how that worked out for them..

So, using this criteria, Lets prioritize the Upgrades:

WY: inexpensive media, Good replacement check and check.

TN: Way more costly, Lamar! is a RINO, some good choices are available (Marsha Blackburn)

SC: Expensive, Don’t forget, Tim Scott also will be on the ballot. Anybody else see a problem with explaining that this republican good, that republican bad to a low information voter?

GA: Not red enough to assure winner in bloody primary takes general.

TX: Too expensive, money better utilized elsewhere.
“Take Backs”
Added Criteria: Open seats are easier to take.
How Republican is the electorate, margin in last 3 presidentals is a good rule of thumb.

SD: Inexpensive Media, Open Seat, Very Republican in Statewide races, poor candidate selection by dems.

MT: Open, inexpensive media, Most formidable dem chose not to run.
WV: Open, Reasonable media expense, Poor candidate selection on Dem. ( Is Capito just another RINO?)

AK: Begitch has baggage, Imagine the shear size of Alaska makes media expensive. Never voted for a budget in 6 yrs.

LA: Landrieu has always under performed. Her state lost 400k mostly dem voters after Katrina. Media is reasonalby priced. Please lets pick this up!! Very favorable Demographics.

AR: Pryor is vulnerable to the right candidate. Media is reasonable, more bang for the buck. Has not voted on a budget in 6yrs in majority. Favorable demographics.

NC: Hagan has not done anything for the state. Demographics and media are not as favorable as previous states; Has not voted for a budget in six years of the majority. Rubber Stamp for Harry Reid.

IA: Open, reasonable cost. Even Demographics.
MI: Open, expensive, fair demographics for right candidate.
CO: Udall is despicable, Media more than average cost, has not voted for a budget in 6 yrs of majority. Good place to undo OFA.

In Conclusion, My rankings in priority would be:
1: SD
2: MT
3: WV
4: LA
5: AK
6: AR
7: WY
8: IA
9: NC
10: TN
11: CO
12: MI
13: SC
14: MN I would really love to see Franken defeated.
15: GA

Thanks for Playing, CPT Clay

[VRWC For Truth]

Unless the majority is made up of Ted Cruz clones, it’s no improvement.

[texas booster]

From your list, I would look at vote fraud and the SOS challenge that stole Colorado from the Pubbies in 2012.

MT, WV, LA, AR, TN, CO and MI need to be massive wins to overcome graveyard and college student voting.

I will ignore MN since even my relatives up there can't believe how positive the press is toward Franken, when they even mention him. Univ of MN and DFL carries him over the finish line.