Skip to comments.Rasmussen poll of Republican voters: Christie 21, Rubio 18, Jeb Bush 16
Posted on 08/11/2013 7:50:08 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
One word, my friends: RINOgeddon.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that Christie earns 21% support when Republican voters are asked whom they would vote for if the partys primary in their state were held today. Florida Senator Marco Rubio runs a close second with 18% of the GOP vote, followed by former Florida Governor Jeb Bush at 16% and Kentucky Senator Rand Paul with 15% of the vote.
Congressman Paul Ryan, the unsuccessful Republican vice presidential candidate in 2012, picks up 13% of the Republican vote, with Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker dead last at six percent (6%). Just three percent (3%) prefer another candidate, and eight percent (8%) are undecided.
Good news for Christie-haters: Hes also leading the field by double digits when Republicans are asked who theyd least like to see win the nomination. (His new nemesis, Rand Paul, is a distant second.) This is why I keep thinking that, for all the slobber over his electability, he might be so widely and deeply disliked by a small but significant minority of righties that they end up staying home if hes nominee and costing him the election. To be electable with a few percentage points worth of conservatives sitting out, hed have to offset them by grabbing more centrist Democrats than expected from the Democratic nominee. How likely is that if Hillarys the pick and Bill Clintons out there every day for her on the trail? Every candidate tacks toward the center after hes nominated, but Christie would tack further than most not just because hes inclined to, but because he might have to in order to make up those lost conservative votes.
Its time (already!) to stop thinking about national polls for 2016, though, and to start thinking in terms of Iowa and New Hampshire. Theyre the springboards to national success, after all; if a top-flight candidate cant play in either of them, for whatever strange reason, they wont have any traction for South Carolina and Florida. Right, Marco Rubio?
A new Granite State Poll conducted for WMUR-TV shows Rubio, who was tied with Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) for the lead in an April poll by the same pollster at 15 percent, now garners the support of just 6 percent of New Hampshire GOP primary voters, placing fifth.
Rubios favorable rating has also taken a hit. While in April he was viewed favorably by 59 percent and unfavorably by 8 percent, his favorable-unfavorable split is now 47-14.
The polls new leader is New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, at 21 percent. He is followed by Paul at 16 percent, former Florida governor Jeb Bush at 10 percent, Rep. Paul Ryan (Wis.) at 8 percent and Rubio at 6 percent.
Rubios a special case in that hes a Florida native and could, in theory, win there even if he loses the first three major primaries, but imagine how many Rubio disappoints again stories will be written before then. New Hampshire is going to be even tougher than usual next time too thanks to Christies and Pauls likely candidacies: Each of them, in very different ways, seems better suited to NHs maverick-y sensibility than Rubio does. (New Hampshire will, I think, end up as ground zero for the Christie/Paul debate on national security and civil liberties.) Iowa is Rubios best bet and Iowa famously has a lot of social conservatives, which is why youre seeing him sponsor that Senate abortion bill and why he made such a stink about gay marriage during the immigration debate instead of the more important stuff like, say, amnesty.
His best bet at an early primary win, then, might be to go full social con and hope that (a) caucusgoers decide that Santorums a lost cause this time and (b) Rand Paul somehow flames out, which is difficult to imagine given that Rons supporters nearly carried him to victory there last time. In fact, as strange as this sounds, Id argue that the ostensibly fringy Paul is the guy best positioned right now to sweep Iowa and New Hampshire. Hes got the Paulites in Iowa behind him and hes been working to woo social conservatives; he also doesnt have Rubios vulnerability on immigration in Steve King country. His foreign policy views and libertarian take on spending will make him competitive in New Hampshire too, especially if he gets some momentum from winning Iowa. If he wins one or, especially, both, Beltway Republicans will shift immediately into stop Paul panic mode and someone Christie, Walker, maybe Rubio will become the designated anti-Paul establishment favorite for South Carolina and Florida. Makes me wonder if, oddly enough, thats not Rubios best bet at this point. Hope Rand looks strong early and then wait for the non-libertarian segments of the party to run fleeing to him in terror as a guy who might be able to unite the center and right in overcoming Paul.
One other fun fact from the Rasmussen poll: Among Democrats, Christie is the guy theyd most like to see win the GOP nomination and Jeb Bush, by far, is who theyd least like to see win. Shouldnt it be the opposite? If youre a Dem, youd love to run against a guy named Bush, especially if youre carrying the dynastic liability of nominating someone named Clinton. Or do Democrats really think Jeb would be that formidable in the general?
Where the hell did he poll? NY/NJ MIAMI?........
Was “None of the Above” a poll choice? It would have been mine.
Maybe they weren’t included.
Forget the GOP, it is run by Rove and Romney,
the bastards who impose SOCIALIZED MEDICINE,
OPEN BORDERS and protection of Obama’s unConstitutional
actions and inactions.
So my choices are Fat Boy,a La Raza front man,or yet another Bush?
This was a poll of 10 liberals.
Krispy Kreme will lose Iowa, might win New Hampshire, lose South Carolina, lose Florida, and then lose everything not in the North East.
Wait until the voters see Cruz slay the likes of Christie, Rubio and Bush in a debate and this poll will turn upside down.
What per cent was Santorum receiving in 2009?
Cruz would have been my #1 and only choice.
Forget the GOP, it is run by Rove and Romney,
Rove, yes. Romney, no. Show me where Romney has any say-so in the GOP/RNC.
Another election to stay home?
Iowa has enthusiastically thrown down for Cruz.
GOP-e can’t deal with it. They will Murkowski every TEA candidate that surges in ‘14, believe that.
I believe they will FAIL.
We will be rid of them in about 16 months.
If he doesn't, then I guess the GOP leaders don't fit the old definition of "an honest politician."
Oh Gawd! Here we go again.
Only 3% prefer somebody other than a pro amnesty Paul and 4 pro amnesty RINOs??
In my view, like everything now, these polls are so damn corrupt.
Good luck stormin' the castle, boys.
Isn’t it amazing how the same kinds of RINOs always win these polls?
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