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The Democratic Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016
The Washington Post's The Monkey Cage ^ | January 18, 2014 | John Sides

Posted on 01/19/2014 1:16:19 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet

My Post colleague Dan Balz has some very interesting reporting from Democratic and Republican strategists. Both groups seem somewhat pessimistic about the GOP’s chances in 2016:

A recent conversation with a veteran of GOP presidential campaigns raised this question: Which, if any, of the recent battleground states are likely to become more Republican by 2016? The consensus: very few.

That reality highlights one problem Republicans face as they seek to regain the White House after six years under President Obama. Lots of factors affect elections: The quality of the candidates, the state of the economy, the effectiveness of the campaigns. But in a country whose demographics continue to change, Republicans will begin this campaign with one significant disadvantage.

Demographics are certainly one factor worth considering. But it’s worth taking a minute to see what a few of those others factors suggest. It might give that veteran of GOP presidential campaigns more hope.

In April 2012, two other political scientists — Seth Hill and Lynn Vavreck — and I did a presidential election forecasting model for The Washington Post. The model had only three factors: The change in gross domestic product in the first two quarters of the election year, the president’s approval rating as of June of that year and whether the incumbent was running. That model forecast that Obama would win in 2012, and — although there is nothing magic about this model — it was ultimately accurate within a percentage point.

It is far too early to do a formal forecast for 2016. The economic and political conditions in that year will be paramount. But given that at least some in the GOP appear pessimistic as of today, it’s worth asking...

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...


TOPICS: Issues; Parties; Polls
KEYWORDS: 2014election; 2016; 2016demprimary; 2016election; 2016electionbias; 2016issues; balz; bush; chrischristie; collusion; dcntalkingpoints; democrats; demographics; election2014; election2016; gop; hillary; howtostealanelection; jebbush; obama; polls; republicans
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1 posted on 01/19/2014 1:16:19 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

They’re going to stack the vote.

(No, they can’t do that!)

They already are.

And since no one is interested in stopping them, I expect the ballot stuffing movement to gain momentum.


2 posted on 01/19/2014 1:21:34 PM PST by Tzimisce
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Wasn’t there a thread a few hours ago with the exact same subject only “Republicans” instead of “Democrats”?


3 posted on 01/19/2014 1:24:27 PM PST by bigbob (The best way to get a bad law repealed is to enforce it strictly. Abraham Lincoln)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I think the democrats are fixin to get stomped and only the GOPe can save them.


4 posted on 01/19/2014 1:24:53 PM PST by cripplecreek (REMEMBER THE RIVER RAISIN!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Let's give amnesty to 'rat illegals.

That'll certainly help (them).

5 posted on 01/19/2014 1:25:55 PM PST by Paladin2
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To: bigbob

I thought I saw that also LOL.


6 posted on 01/19/2014 1:26:33 PM PST by what's up
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Most states are now pretty solid either red or blue, and only a small number in play.

Like 2012 the election will really only be contested in Ohio, Virginia, Florida, and a few others.


7 posted on 01/19/2014 1:30:21 PM PST by nascarnation (I'm hiring Jack Palladino to investigate Baraq's golf scores.)
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To: bigbob
Wasn’t there a thread a few hours ago with the exact same subject only “Republicans” instead of “Democrats”?

Yes; but it hardly matters: there's no difference between the two parties.

IN THE GRIM DARKNESS OF THE FAR FUTURE THERE IS ONLY GOVERNMENT.
[Direct Link]

The Tao of Republican Orthodoxy
[Direct Link]
The Modern Democratic Party & You
[Direct Link]

8 posted on 01/19/2014 1:31:30 PM PST by OneWingedShark (Q: Why am I here? A: To do Justly, to love mercy, and to walk humbly with my God.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Here’s one scenario: Obamacare, et al provides sufficient momentum for the GOP to take the Senate and retain control of the House in 2014. This will give the Stupid Party two years to reach-across and share power and do all the stupid stuff they’re more than capable of doing, quite likely with Boehner and McConnell still at the helm. They’ll fail to accomplish anything meaningful and by the time 2016 rolls around, the elites will have hand-picked the next candidate, a moderate like Jeb Bush, and enough conservatives will do what they did in 2012 so we’ll have President Hillary and First Gentleman Bubba.


9 posted on 01/19/2014 1:32:33 PM PST by bigbob (The best way to get a bad law repealed is to enforce it strictly. Abraham Lincoln)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Aside from the religious and conservatives are there any more votes the democrats can buy? Certainly the illegal amnesty will help them. They have boxes of uncounted ballots already to go just in case. The democrats have a republican establishment that actively helps democrats. I say their odds are very high they will win in 2016.


10 posted on 01/19/2014 1:33:25 PM PST by Organic Panic
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To: Tzimisce

Not to mention that the IRS and NSA are going to work overtime to hamper opposition.


11 posted on 01/19/2014 1:33:43 PM PST by Jonty30 (What Islam and secularism have in common is that they are both death cults)
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To: bigbob

Huma as WH Chief of Staff.
Chelsea as Sec of Commerce

and William Jefferson Webster “lil bubba” Clinton-Mezvinsky as First Grandchild.


12 posted on 01/19/2014 1:34:55 PM PST by nascarnation (I'm hiring Jack Palladino to investigate Baraq's golf scores.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

My thoughts are it bit odd that this was by a mainstream mediot. Basically in the mainstream media every GOP victory is a blip and ever Dim win is a major realignment.


13 posted on 01/19/2014 1:36:28 PM PST by JLS
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To: Jonty30

To date no one has been punished for the IRS scandal.

No one.

One would think that elected officials who were targeted by the IRS would be the most pissed off by that particular corruption.

And one would be wrong...


14 posted on 01/19/2014 1:37:25 PM PST by Tzimisce
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To: JLS

Maybe he’s warning the media.


15 posted on 01/19/2014 1:37:57 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (Jealousy is when you count someone else's blessings instead of your own.)
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To: cripplecreek

Bump!

May it be so.


16 posted on 01/19/2014 1:38:09 PM PST by Texas Fossil
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Secession! At least *part* of this once great nation can be saved.But,sadly,we've passed the tipping point so the *entire* nation *cannot* be saved.
17 posted on 01/19/2014 1:39:26 PM PST by Gay State Conservative (Osama Obama Care: A Religion That Will Have You On Your Knees!)
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To: Paladin2

The Democrats will cheat, steal,and lie and the state run media will support them as usual. That is why they are so against voter ID, even though both of our neighbors, Canada and Mexico, have some form of voter ID laws. I’m afraid we have gone past the era of a free press and honest elections. Nothing short of a financial disaster will change this.


18 posted on 01/19/2014 1:40:18 PM PST by NotTallTex
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

131.4 m voted in 2008; 129.2 m voted in 2012 with “a changed demographic” and a larger voting aged population. The media continues to obscure the fact that there was a pretty massive failure on the Democrats’ part to turn out the vote, despite the supposed technical wizardry they had. It would be puzzling that voter turnout of the voting age population in 2012 is being ignored everywhere ( having slipped from high 50’s in ‘08 to very low 50’s in ‘12http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/) except that it fits so well with the agenda of trying to stampede the Republicans to the left. As Romney admitted, he had to “steal” the nomination away from the southern, populist evangelical base. The effort to steal it away goes on again. There is no demographic wave about to wash over the GOP.


19 posted on 01/19/2014 1:40:27 PM PST by gusopol3
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To: Organic Panic

Lets not forget what happened in Philadelphia where Republican Pol Leaders were locked out of polling places before voting began so they couldn’t validate the voting machines were set to zero. They had to go get a court order to get into the building, but that took an hour or two.

Then we have the issue that Republicans can’t say anything about voter fraud do to a lawsuit decades ago where they signed an agreement not to do so in lieu of paying a huge fine...

So voter fraud in PA, Ohio will continue with nothing to stop them..More votes then voting persons, etc.


20 posted on 01/19/2014 1:43:10 PM PST by Engedi
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To: Tzimisce

They probably were angry, but what does one do when he’s got the Sword of Democles hanging over him?


21 posted on 01/19/2014 1:46:11 PM PST by Jonty30 (What Islam and secularism have in common is that they are both death cults)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
I wish people would start calling them "Democrats", instead of "Democratic".

There is nothing "democratic" about the "Democrat" party.

22 posted on 01/19/2014 1:46:22 PM PST by elkfersupper
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To: elkfersupper

It’s their formal name.


23 posted on 01/19/2014 1:50:20 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (Jealousy is when you count someone else's blessings instead of your own.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

More GOP daydreaming. Thinking about 2016 and beyond while the Dems ruthlessly focus on 2014. The GOP tip toes to 2014 while the Dems execute their new a lie every week and divide the GOP strategy.


24 posted on 01/19/2014 1:51:57 PM PST by lodi90
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To: lodi90

The author isn’t a Republican.


25 posted on 01/19/2014 1:52:36 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (Jealousy is when you count someone else's blessings instead of your own.)
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To: All

Good luck winning VA with that corrupt Clinton lackey running the state ...the crap that he’ll pull to make sure that state goes dem will know no bounds...write that one off....

PA is a lost cause

CO and NM are hippy and illegal alien infested and will never go republican....

Hard math for republicans to win


26 posted on 01/19/2014 1:54:48 PM PST by thestob (Paul Ryan is determined to destroy this country)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I don’t know how uphill its going to be after Boehner and his merry band of RINO’s pass amnesty and then tax hikes ie. “closing the loopholes” That means getting rid of the middle class mortgage deduction and God knows what else. After screwing the veterans I wouldn’t put anything past those shameless quislings.

6 million republicans sat home in 2012. What if 8 million sit home in 2016?


27 posted on 01/19/2014 1:56:13 PM PST by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose of a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped.)
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To: Tzimisce

Yep. They’ve mastered voter fraud and the use of ‘Ross Perot’s’ to meet their goals. Two words are a constant reminder of their misdeeds: Al Franken.


28 posted on 01/19/2014 1:57:27 PM PST by CivilWarBrewing
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
The “Republicans” (whatever they now stand for) don't have a chance in Hell of winning a presidential election soon because the voting is rigged in many states by our socialist “friends”. When I watched the results come in From Florida an Pennsylvania last election, I formed this opinion.

We are on an express train to disaster. The only question is will the military intervene (or something else) to derail it.

29 posted on 01/19/2014 1:58:21 PM PST by Citizen Tom Paine (An old sailor sends)
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; cardinal4; ColdOne; ...
Thanks 2ndDivisionVet. Related topic: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016.
30 posted on 01/19/2014 1:59:49 PM PST by SunkenCiv (;http://www.freerepublic.com/~mestamachine/)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

LOL! I’d love to believe we have a shot in 2016, but after seeing Obama win again...I doubt it the American people are too stupid.


31 posted on 01/19/2014 2:03:12 PM PST by erod (I'm a Chicagoan till Chicago ends...)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet; All

If patriots would wake up and use the 2014 and 2016 elections to build a Congress controlled by a 2/3 conservative majority in each House by 2016, then a conservative Congess would be able to overide the vetoes of any RINO or liberal that gets elected to the Oval Office in 2016.


32 posted on 01/19/2014 2:04:55 PM PST by Amendment10
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
It’s their formal name.

That's right. "Democrat" is their formal name. That's how their party affiliation is designated on ballots.

If things were otherwise, "Republicans" would be known as "Republicanics", "Libertarians" would be known as "Libertarianics" and "Independents" would be known as "Independentics".

33 posted on 01/19/2014 2:06:36 PM PST by elkfersupper
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To: Tzimisce

ACORN’s Seeds Sprout Up Across the Country
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3111204/posts

Voter Fraud: We’ve Got Proof It’s Easy
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3111190/posts


34 posted on 01/19/2014 2:07:49 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (Jealousy is when you count someone else's blessings instead of your own.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

When Republicans are in the majority, they govern like they are in the minority.

When Republicans are in the minority, the govern like they’ll never again become the majority party.


35 posted on 01/19/2014 2:08:14 PM PST by Tai_Chung
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

We are at 1978 looking at 1980. All we need is a conservative candidate.


36 posted on 01/19/2014 2:08:16 PM PST by Blood of Tyrants (The War on Drugs has been used as an excuse to steal your rights. Support an end to the WOD now.)
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To: Blood of Tyrants

We have Ted Cruz, Sarah Palin, Mike Lee, etc., etc...


37 posted on 01/19/2014 2:10:00 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (Jealousy is when you count someone else's blessings instead of your own.)
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To: thestob
CO and NM are hippy and illegal alien infested and will never go republican....

Not true; NM went Republican for Bush's election, and has Susana Martenez as gov.

38 posted on 01/19/2014 2:15:32 PM PST by OneWingedShark (Q: Why am I here? A: To do Justly, to love mercy, and to walk humbly with my God.)
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To: elkfersupper

39 posted on 01/19/2014 2:15:46 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (Jealousy is when you count someone else's blessings instead of your own.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
There is almost no chance Republicans can win in 2016.

The Democrat political strategy for 2014 and 2016 is crystal clear:

Get huge numbers of Black, Hispanic, immigrant, and poor white women voters to the polls.

It's a simple math problem.

For the last 20 years, Republicans have won elections only because of high turnout from white voters, and low turnout from non-white voters.

When non-whites start to vote at the same rate that whites vote, the game is up for Conservatives.

If Democrats can turn out their base in 2016, they will win Georgia and turn Texas into a “Battleground” state.

40 posted on 01/19/2014 2:16:49 PM PST by zeestephen
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To: Tai_Chung
When Republicans are in the majority, they govern like they are in the minority.
When Republicans are in the minority, the govern like they’ll never again become the majority party.

I've come to the conclusion that the Republican party is not for any of its stated platform planks — even if they were incompetent and had a drive for their stated planks they'd have more success than their plan of constant roll-over.

I made a brochure about it:
The Tao of Republican Orthodoxy
[Direct Link]

41 posted on 01/19/2014 2:18:31 PM PST by OneWingedShark (Q: Why am I here? A: To do Justly, to love mercy, and to walk humbly with my God.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
That's what they call themselves and what the media calls them.

Check the designation next time you vote.

Don't vote for any of them, just check the designation of party affiliation.

42 posted on 01/19/2014 2:18:52 PM PST by elkfersupper
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Could be that he is warning the rest of the media. Until Obama, the Dim strategy to win the white has has been to nominate some southerner, LBJ, Carter, Clinton, who could attract a few extra low information voters who would still believe a southern Dim is conservative. Obama showed that they could also win by nominated a black candidate and win on increased black turnout.

Do they have a southern candidate for 2016? A black candidate? Will a women candidate increase female turnout and work the same for them as Obama did in 2008?


43 posted on 01/19/2014 2:18:52 PM PST by JLS
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To: 2ndDivisionVet; a fool in paradise

2016 will show if it makes sense any longer to challenge the designated candidates, or incumbents on national level. It no longer makes sense in most districts on local level. What is the number, 97% (?) of Congresscritters running for re-election win? Are any US Senators beatable? State legislators and senators? Not where I hang my Che Guevara hat!


44 posted on 01/19/2014 2:23:31 PM PST by Revolting cat! (Bad things are wrong! Ice cream is delicious! We reserve the right to serve refuse to anyone!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

After 2012? Put nothing past the dhimmicraps and the LIV voting block they manage to herd with sound bites and ‘feel good’ promises.
Also, don’t count out the cemetery vote.


45 posted on 01/19/2014 2:23:59 PM PST by PubliusMM (RKBA; a matter of fact, not opinion. 01-20-2016; I pray we make it that long.)
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To: elkfersupper

Or just Communists.


46 posted on 01/19/2014 2:24:06 PM PST by silentreignofheroes
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To: JLS

Charlie Crist? Jeb Bush (oh, that’s right, he’s supposedly GOP!) or Abortion Barbie? Sybrina Fulton or Rachel Jeantel?


47 posted on 01/19/2014 2:25:10 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (Jealousy is when you count someone else's blessings instead of your own.)
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To: OneWingedShark
RE: “Not true; NM went Republican for Bush's election, and has Susana Martenez as gov.”

Correct, but you forgot to explain why:

Very low Hispanic turnout.

In the 2010 governor's race, only 39% of Hispanics voted for Republican Susana Martinez!

48 posted on 01/19/2014 2:25:34 PM PST by zeestephen
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To: elkfersupper

That’s a party designation signifier, like saying someone is a “Green” or a “Social Democrat” but that’s not the party name. The professor is using the party’s name.


49 posted on 01/19/2014 2:27:36 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (Jealousy is when you count someone else's blessings instead of your own.)
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To: OneWingedShark

And Romney lost the state by 10 points....are those demographics going to shift back in the republicans favor? Winning the governorship in a non- presidential election year is a hell of a lot different than turning that state red again in a presidential election.


50 posted on 01/19/2014 2:31:55 PM PST by thestob (Paul Ryan is determined to destroy this country)
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