Skip to comments.The Democratic Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016
Posted on 01/19/2014 1:16:19 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
My Post colleague Dan Balz has some very interesting reporting from Democratic and Republican strategists. Both groups seem somewhat pessimistic about the GOPs chances in 2016:
A recent conversation with a veteran of GOP presidential campaigns raised this question: Which, if any, of the recent battleground states are likely to become more Republican by 2016? The consensus: very few.
That reality highlights one problem Republicans face as they seek to regain the White House after six years under President Obama. Lots of factors affect elections: The quality of the candidates, the state of the economy, the effectiveness of the campaigns. But in a country whose demographics continue to change, Republicans will begin this campaign with one significant disadvantage.
Demographics are certainly one factor worth considering. But its worth taking a minute to see what a few of those others factors suggest. It might give that veteran of GOP presidential campaigns more hope.
In April 2012, two other political scientists Seth Hill and Lynn Vavreck and I did a presidential election forecasting model for The Washington Post. The model had only three factors: The change in gross domestic product in the first two quarters of the election year, the presidents approval rating as of June of that year and whether the incumbent was running. That model forecast that Obama would win in 2012, and although there is nothing magic about this model it was ultimately accurate within a percentage point.
It is far too early to do a formal forecast for 2016. The economic and political conditions in that year will be paramount. But given that at least some in the GOP appear pessimistic as of today, its worth asking...
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
They’re going to stack the vote.
(No, they can’t do that!)
They already are.
And since no one is interested in stopping them, I expect the ballot stuffing movement to gain momentum.
Wasn’t there a thread a few hours ago with the exact same subject only “Republicans” instead of “Democrats”?
I think the democrats are fixin to get stomped and only the GOPe can save them.
That'll certainly help (them).
I thought I saw that also LOL.
Most states are now pretty solid either red or blue, and only a small number in play.
Like 2012 the election will really only be contested in Ohio, Virginia, Florida, and a few others.
Yes; but it hardly matters: there's no difference between the two parties.
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Here’s one scenario: Obamacare, et al provides sufficient momentum for the GOP to take the Senate and retain control of the House in 2014. This will give the Stupid Party two years to reach-across and share power and do all the stupid stuff they’re more than capable of doing, quite likely with Boehner and McConnell still at the helm. They’ll fail to accomplish anything meaningful and by the time 2016 rolls around, the elites will have hand-picked the next candidate, a moderate like Jeb Bush, and enough conservatives will do what they did in 2012 so we’ll have President Hillary and First Gentleman Bubba.
Aside from the religious and conservatives are there any more votes the democrats can buy? Certainly the illegal amnesty will help them. They have boxes of uncounted ballots already to go just in case. The democrats have a republican establishment that actively helps democrats. I say their odds are very high they will win in 2016.
Not to mention that the IRS and NSA are going to work overtime to hamper opposition.
Huma as WH Chief of Staff.
Chelsea as Sec of Commerce
and William Jefferson Webster “lil bubba” Clinton-Mezvinsky as First Grandchild.
My thoughts are it bit odd that this was by a mainstream mediot. Basically in the mainstream media every GOP victory is a blip and ever Dim win is a major realignment.
To date no one has been punished for the IRS scandal.
One would think that elected officials who were targeted by the IRS would be the most pissed off by that particular corruption.
And one would be wrong...
Maybe he’s warning the media.
May it be so.
The Democrats will cheat, steal,and lie and the state run media will support them as usual. That is why they are so against voter ID, even though both of our neighbors, Canada and Mexico, have some form of voter ID laws. I’m afraid we have gone past the era of a free press and honest elections. Nothing short of a financial disaster will change this.
131.4 m voted in 2008; 129.2 m voted in 2012 with “a changed demographic” and a larger voting aged population. The media continues to obscure the fact that there was a pretty massive failure on the Democrats’ part to turn out the vote, despite the supposed technical wizardry they had. It would be puzzling that voter turnout of the voting age population in 2012 is being ignored everywhere ( having slipped from high 50’s in ‘08 to very low 50’s in ‘12http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/) except that it fits so well with the agenda of trying to stampede the Republicans to the left. As Romney admitted, he had to “steal” the nomination away from the southern, populist evangelical base. The effort to steal it away goes on again. There is no demographic wave about to wash over the GOP.
Lets not forget what happened in Philadelphia where Republican Pol Leaders were locked out of polling places before voting began so they couldn’t validate the voting machines were set to zero. They had to go get a court order to get into the building, but that took an hour or two.
Then we have the issue that Republicans can’t say anything about voter fraud do to a lawsuit decades ago where they signed an agreement not to do so in lieu of paying a huge fine...
So voter fraud in PA, Ohio will continue with nothing to stop them..More votes then voting persons, etc.
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