Skip to comments.New leader in 2016 GOP primary field: Mike Huckabee, of course (Actually, it's Gov. Palin)
Posted on 01/29/2014 5:14:32 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
I realize that all presidential polls this far out from election day are hot garbage but theres no way Im missing an opportunity to troll my Huck-hating readership as golden as this one. Two words, my friends: Huckabee/Christie?
Although Hucks now technically the GOP frontrunner, hes not the pol with the highest favorable rating among Republicans. Thatd be Sarah Palin, whos at 70/20 and has the highest numbers among both women and men. PPP didnt offer her as an option in its presidential polling, presumably because they think shes unlikely to run.
Following the controversy over his Uncle Sugar speech Mike Huckabee has taken the lead in the Republican primary race for 2016. Hes at 16% to 14% for Jeb Bush, 13% for Chris Christie, 11% for Rand Paul, 8% each for Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, and Paul Ryan, 6% for Scott Walker, and 5% for Bobby Jindal.
Theres been more movement than usual over the last month, with Huckabee and Bush each gaining 3-4 points, and Chris Christie and Ted Cruz each falling by 6 points. Cruz had been leading the field among very conservative voters for months but in the wake of Huckabees press attention last week hes taken the top spot with that group. Hes at 20% to 15% for Paul, 11% for Cruz, and 10% for Bush. In the wake of Bridgegate Christies supremacy with moderate voters is being challenged- a month ago he led Bush by 23 points with them, but now his advantage is down to 3 points at 28/25
Christies problems are even bigger with the overall electorate though. His net favorability has dropped 27 points in a month from +12 at 43/31 to now -15 at 31/46. Hes gone from having the best numbers of the potential Republican candidates to the worst in the span of a month. Christie had been popular because of his unusual amount of appeal to Democrats and independents. But now hes become deeply unpopular with both of those groups, dropping from 38/36 to 20/58 with the former and from 46/28 to 29/44 with the latter.
Thats a long fall for Christie, longer than Ive seen in any other poll. Heres his problem in a nutshell; compare his numbers among the three partisan demographics to Huckabees and Ted Cruzs.
Christies still better liked by Democrats than his Republican rivals but only marginally so, and that margin isnt enough to compensate for the lukewarm reception he gets from Republicans. Huckabee is +53 in his own party; Cruz, whos lesser known, is +30; Christie is now +10. Among independents, Christie now actually has the worst numbers of the three. Its hard to make the case in the primaries for Mr. Electability if his supposed electability advantage in the general isnt there.
As for Hucks success, theres no mystery as to whats driving it. Older voters tend to be more socially conservative and the GOP has a lot of older voters (and Fox News watchers). The Uncle Sugar thing may have put him back on the 2016 radar for those people:
Say, isnt Rand Paul supposed to be the candidate of the young? Ah well. Hard to believe a tea-party champion like Cruz might potentially be vulnerable to a more centrist social conservative like Huckabee in the primary, but the boldface part above raises the possibility especially in Iowa. Cruzs early-state strategy in 2016 would be the opposite of Christies: Christie would zero in on New Hampshire, land of the moderate maverick, for his big propulsive victory. Cruz the conservative would zero in on Iowa, a social-con stronghold in the primaries. If Huckabee and/or Santorum run, they could carve off enough of his support to either win themselves or allow someone like Rand Paul to sneak through. (With the possible exception of Scott Walker, Pauls the only man in the field whos reasonably well positioned for both Iowa and New Hampshire.) The upshot is, strange as it may seem, Paul may be rooting Huckabee or Santorum on. Cruz is the big threat to cannibalize his tea-party support; if Huck or Santo can cannibalize Cruzs social-con support, Paul might be fine.
One more note about Cruz. He may be in a bit of a reverse-Christie position in the primaries. Here are his numbers among various stripes of Republicans:
Six other Republican candidates were included in this poll: Palin, Christie, Huckabee, Paul, Jeb Bush (whos risen this month to fill the vacuum among centrists after Christie went sour), and Paul Ryan. Cruz is less well known than all of them, but his numbers among moderate Republicans are already far worse than anyone elses at 13/37. (Next lowest are Paul, at 32/38, and Ryan, at 30/36. Among somewhat conservative Republicans, no other candidate is below 55 percent support except Christie, whos at 46/32. The most popular Republican is Palin at 72/17, so this isnt a case of center-right GOPers automatically recoiling from tea partiers. This is, I think, a reaction to Cruzs role in the defund standoff that led to the shutdown. Cruz has been working hard in the media lately to defend himself from the charge that he caused it, but it may be that even centrists in his own party arent buying it. Thats what I mean by reverse-Christie Christie may struggle to win conservative votes in the primary just as Cruz may struggle to win centrists. Advantage: Paul?
They have no path to winning that they are willing to pursue.
LOL, I would actually say Cruz and Lee are the real front runners for conservatives.
I would rather Palin/Lee .Cruz reminds me of Obama too much .a big time talker but absolutely zero results. We need “do’ers” .the days of the big talkers are over I hope. Palin and lee both have incredible records of results. Cruz has ZERO.
Scott Walker has proven himself too.
Palin has no chance to win anything, Lee and Cruz do. They also are getting some backers with bucks.
Huckster is in it until he gets a new contract with Fox!
Imagine how popular she’d be if she wasn’t attacked hundreds of thousands of times for six years, 24/7.
I beg t differ.
The GOP will be finished for good when they amnesty.
Which appears very soon.
Exactly correct. No chance for the WH. Heaven knows what will be up with the House, and lose at LEAST 7 Senate seats. This is black comedy at it’s most terrifying.
Sarah Palin, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Mike Lee..
Any of those for 2016
Yep...there’s a huge FR contingent that can’t fathom the marketing term known as “damaged goods”.
Yes . . . and others cant fathom that anyone quickly becomes damaged goods if the PR Establishment - a.k.a. the mainstream media decides to make it so.
There is no safety in nominating someone so who tries to curry favor with journalists; if he gets to be a real threat hell suddenly develop PR problems.
Journalism is the Democratic Partys star middle linebacker - wherever you try to attack, that linebacker will be around the ball. So it is no answer to run away from them - you must run at them. And if you cant do that, you cant win. If you wont do it, you wont win.
...and then abandonded by the wussy republicans who are happy to throw her to the 'gators so they'll be eaten by the MSM last.
If FReepers agree with her political positions, they should support her and not help the media do its job by insisting she can't win.
Hillary was, too. She's still running.
Palin has a good chance. The reason? Generally people who support her are no longer hesitant to jump on any falsehood put forth by the left. The left has no idea what people have vested, in their entirety in removing the tyranny of the past 5 years.
Walker has been a dolt on immigration, and I think he accepted Medicaid funding. Bob
You are seriously comparing attacks on Hillary to attacks on Sarah? Really? REALLY? Please show me a link where they burned Hillary’s church to the ground with women and children still inside! Or did you forget about that little incident? Or the crowdsourcing, the “Palin is a c***” t-shirts, the Letterman attacks, the rape and assault threats. If those had happened to Hillary the Secret Service would’ve been involved.