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Republicans Need a Champion in 2016 (Guess which two he suggests?)
Politico Magazine ^ | March 3, 2014 | Professor Larry J. Sabato

Posted on 03/04/2014 7:40:03 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet

e are already at the point in this prematurely unfolding 2016 presidential campaign when a glance down the list of prospective candidates can cause most observers to wince. As that seductive and sultry crooner Peggy Lee once sang, “Is that all there is?”

At the U.Va. Crystal Ball, we currently have 11 Republicans and nine Democrats as probable or possible presidential contenders. The Democrats have fewer and more tentative contenders because of the paralyzing gravitational pull of “Planet Hillary,” as the New York Times Magazine described the Clinton operation. The former secretary of state is a kind of massive Jupiter in a solar system that may not have many more worlds if she runs.

The Republicans have a sharply different problem. They have plenty of wannabes but no obvious general election winner. It’s not that we can’t construct scenarios by which this or that GOP nominee will capture the White House three years hence. Rather, it is that no one on the present list seems able to convincingly combat the growing demographic edge that produces a Democratic lead in the Electoral College.

Republicans probably won’t believe this assertion once they do reasonably well in this November’s low-turnout, red state-skewed midterm election; they’ll fool themselves again, just as they did after their 2010 midterm triumph, when the most frequently heard GOP comment was, “Even my dog could beat President Obama in 2012.”

Maybe Obama will be so unpopular by 2016, or the economy bad enough, that the Democratic nominee simply can’t win. But if the general election turns out to be closely competitive, as most open-seat contests for the White House are, who among the Republicans can redraw an Electoral College map that’s strongly in the Democrats’ favor?(continued)

(Excerpt) Read more at politico.com ...


TOPICS: Campaign News; Issues; Parties; Polls
KEYWORDS: 2016gopprimary; bush; cruz; hillary; jebbush; portman; sabato; tedcruz

1 posted on 03/04/2014 7:40:03 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Going to guess Christie and Rubio


2 posted on 03/04/2014 7:42:17 PM PST by Patriot95
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

3 posted on 03/04/2014 7:46:22 PM PST by Nachum (Obamacare: It's. The. Flaw.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Hey, Republicans can lose as easy with Rob Portman as the can with Jeb Bush or Chris Christie or any of the others.
I have said it before and will say it again, I will not see another Republican president in my lifetime.
4 posted on 03/04/2014 7:50:12 PM PST by Tupelo (I feel more like Philip Nolan every day)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Thanks for this article. I will comment on it in the next few days.


5 posted on 03/04/2014 7:50:17 PM PST by Graewoulf (Democrats' Obamacare Socialist Health Insur. Tax violates U.S. Constitution AND Anti-Trust Law.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Larry Saboto is a documented fraud.
This con was caught hiding his work for the Va DNC and Dem VA senate candidate while hitting all the cable shows trashing the Gop candidate .
He was caught lying and laid low for a fews years .
He is a Dedicated Lefty Fraud posing as a pollster.

I recall in 2003 Fraud Larry predicted GWBush would lose reelection based on his polling.
The man is DNC plant and nothing more.


6 posted on 03/04/2014 7:52:27 PM PST by ncalburt ( Amnesty-media out in full force)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
The unfolding e-mail brouhaha surrounding Walker, while small potatoes in some ways, shows the risks associated with any pol who hasn’t gone through the national wringer.

This man is not up to speed. When all the forces of the national labor movement and the usual cadre of other lefty ops, plus tier 1 radical college lefties all aim fire at you, that IS the national wringer. His hometown paper didn't cover the Wisconsin Senate democrats fleeing to Illinois to avoid the vote on Walker's Act 10?
7 posted on 03/04/2014 7:53:03 PM PST by Dr. Sivana ("I'm a Contra" -- President Ronald Reagan)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Rob Portman? So there is another Republican in Ohio besides Kasich.

Jeb Bush appears to be the establishment favorite, especially now with Christie on the ropes.

If you want a Republican governor with proven leadership experience, I would vote for Palin, Walker or Bush, in that order.

If you want a tea party patriot, with limited leadership experience I would vote for, in order of preference, Mike Lee, Ted Cruz or Rand Paul.

Any of these candidates would be far preferable to Clinton or any other hack the Democrat Party might nominate


8 posted on 03/04/2014 7:55:00 PM PST by be-baw (still seeking)
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To: be-baw

Go read Ted Cruz’s bio.


9 posted on 03/04/2014 7:57:03 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (I will raise $2M for Sarah Palin's next run, what will you do?)
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To: be-baw

Did you forget John Boehner? LOL


10 posted on 03/04/2014 7:57:35 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (I will raise $2M for Sarah Palin's next run, what will you do?)
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To: be-baw

Portman will not run, and if he did, he would be one of the worst candidates for the nomination in history. Worse than Ron Paul.

I will not accept RINOS! And screw Hitlery. She should be in a Russian prison.


11 posted on 03/04/2014 7:59:22 PM PST by Viennacon
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
We have been anxiously awaiting Politico's suggestions as to which (D) who calls himself an (R) we should nominate.

I'm surprised Politico didn't try to push Colin Powell.

12 posted on 03/04/2014 8:01:28 PM PST by TChad (The Obamacare motto: Dulce et decorum est pro patria mori.)
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To: Graewoulf

The suspense is killing me. Please, please, tell us.


13 posted on 03/04/2014 8:04:49 PM PST by ProtectOurFreedom
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

it is that no one on the present list seems able to convincingly combat the growing demographic edge that produces a Democratic lead in the Electoral College.<<

LOL..”growing demographic edge!”...ARE WE TALKING ABOUT GIVERS VS. TAKERS??


14 posted on 03/04/2014 8:05:51 PM PST by M-cubed
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Did you forget John Boehner? LOL

Bush-Boehner in 2016! (wrong on several levels)

15 posted on 03/04/2014 8:08:12 PM PST by Ken H (What happens on the internet, stays on the internet.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Rob Portman might win, but, for social conservatives, what would be the point? We could stand an even better chance of winning if we nominated Hillary. But, then again, what would be the point?


16 posted on 03/04/2014 8:14:52 PM PST by Engraved-on-His-hands (Conservative 2016!! The Dole, H.W. Bush, McCain, Romney experiment has failed.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

for later


17 posted on 03/04/2014 8:15:39 PM PST by knarf (I say things that are true .. I have no proof .. but they're true.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I’ve read Cruz’ bio and I recognize he is uncommonly brilliant. I don’t disagree with anything he has said or done. I would vote for him enthusiastically and work for him to get elected. However, there is a lot to be said for experience gained as a chief executive for a large organization. Nevertheless, I would much prefer Cruz over Jeb Bush


18 posted on 03/04/2014 8:16:49 PM PST by be-baw (still seeking)
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To: ProtectOurFreedom

Sure.

Dr. Sab
Is good in the lab.
But common sense
Is not his suit,
But empty is!
(Just between you and me.)

What does he lack,
I pose to you?
What is obvious that wins more votes?
What causes Corruption Politicos to gloat?
My reasoned answer will take time to type,
But now I must say -— Good Night.


19 posted on 03/04/2014 8:17:39 PM PST by Graewoulf (Democrats' Obamacare Socialist Health Insur. Tax violates U.S. Constitution AND Anti-Trust Law.)
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To: Tupelo
I have said it before and will say it again, I will not see another Republican president in my lifetime.

Unfortunately, I think I agree, especially if amnesty passes, but can you say President Hildebeast? Some people think we are out of our minds, but I was positive Romney would not beat the Obungler either.

20 posted on 03/04/2014 8:20:59 PM PST by Mark17 (Chicago Blackhawks: Stanley Cup champions 2010, 2013. Vietnam Vet 70-71 Msgt US Air Force, retired)
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To: be-baw

Neither Thomas Jefferson nor Abraham Lincoln ever ran much of anything before gaining the presidency.


21 posted on 03/04/2014 8:25:44 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (I will raise $2M for Sarah Palin's next run, what will you do?)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

PALIN/WEST??? Naaaaaaah, they’d scare the hell out of the NYT staff. Actually, if they were ever nominated, I’d say give it your best shot, maybe the idiots will open their eyes for a change. No mater who the Republicans put up, its going to be a dirty up hill battle and the good ole boy candidates won’t fight back. I believe the Palin West combo would, and that would be shear terror for the Libs who control the Democrat party. A firebrand like Palin vs our 1st queen? What would you give to see that? The Republicans don’t have anyone to match the guts of Palin and West, except for Cruz. The Public wants to see fighters up there, they want a winner, not another Republican schlep, because real Americans love winners!


22 posted on 03/04/2014 8:26:42 PM PST by Bringbackthedraft (2016 an election or a coronation of a Queen?)
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To: Bringbackthedraft

23 posted on 03/04/2014 8:30:24 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (I will raise $2M for Sarah Palin's next run, what will you do?)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Oh how I wish there would be a Cruz-Palin ticket. I’m afraid the 2016 presidential election will be like the last one; Palin will announce she’s not running.

I really hope she announces her intentions sooner rather than later.


24 posted on 03/04/2014 8:45:38 PM PST by Artcore
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Rob Portman? Nah, I don't think so. Sabato thinks Portman is the bee's knees because he's inoculated on the homosexual marriage issue; after all, he's all for it. So that won't turn off the 'fairness above all' crowd. But what about abortion? Is Rob squishy on that, too?

My guess is we should just nominate another Democrat Lite candidate. After all, that has worked out SO well for us in the last two elections. /s

25 posted on 03/04/2014 8:54:07 PM PST by SuziQ
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I don’t know where these people get this BS. Rob Portman is the invisible man in Ohio and every other setting. So white he glows in the dark and so damn boring he puts himself to sleep. Besides one homosexual son and he flips to pro gay marriage as if that will keep junior out of the bath houses and away from the Turnpike rest arias!


26 posted on 03/04/2014 9:22:30 PM PST by Jim from C-Town (The government is rarely benevolent, often malevolent and never benign!)
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To: Patriot95

Jeb Bush. He is the likely Republican nominee. He will not be the next president.


27 posted on 03/04/2014 9:28:04 PM PST by arthurus (Read Hazlitt's Economics In One Lesson ONLINEhttp://steshaw.org/economics-in-one-lesson/)
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To: be-baw

Strike Bush from that list and it makes some sense. The bushes learn nothing and a Jeb will be worse than the last two Bushes because he has their foundation to build on.


28 posted on 03/04/2014 9:30:20 PM PST by arthurus (Read Hazlitt's Economics In One Lesson ONLINEhttp://steshaw.org/economics-in-one-lesson/)
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To: Mark17
I have said it before and will say it again, I will not see another Republican president in my lifetime.

Unfortunately, I think I agree, especially if amnesty passes, but can you say President Hildebeast? Some people think we are out of our minds, but I was positive Romney would not beat the Obungler either

Soros counts the votes. Soros will win elections so long as he lives. He's past 80 but he has the best medical care that money can buy. He may well be good for 3 or 4 more cycles.

29 posted on 03/04/2014 9:34:18 PM PST by arthurus (Read Hazlitt's Economics In One Lesson ONLINEhttp://steshaw.org/economics-in-one-lesson/)
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To: Artcore

Is prefer Palin / Cruz.


30 posted on 03/04/2014 9:34:54 PM PST by gitmo (If your theology doesn't become your biography, what good is)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

My prediction is that whoever gets nominated, FR will endorse them. We went from JimRob absolutely refusing to endorse a lying, baby-killing, gun-grabbing, homosexual agenda loving statist to actually endorsing him.

We might as well just change the name to FreeRepublican.com


31 posted on 03/04/2014 9:56:38 PM PST by Kevmo ("A person's a person, no matter how small" ~Horton Hears a Who)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Yet they were both successful self made men before politics.


32 posted on 03/04/2014 10:13:45 PM PST by Usagi_yo (Standardization is an Evolutionary dead end.)
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To: Usagi_yo

So was Ted Cruz, look up his bio. Heck, so was Jefferson Davis, who was much more accomplished than Lincoln even though both were well-off railroad lawyers.


33 posted on 03/04/2014 10:37:08 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (I will raise $2M for Sarah Palin's next run, what will you do?)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Ryan was well positioned and poised to become that, but he blew it big time with his post election ‘Think I better lean left a bit’ attitude. If he had thrown his lot in with Cruz he would be the front runner now by body lengths and a threat to the Clinton wrecking crew.

Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker just by his shear ability to remain standing and effective with his agenda even after the progressives threw everything they had at him. He’s a proven elected executive and may not be as Rino’ish as some will make him out to be. There is a certain reality to compromise that will sometimes leave the stinking after taste of Rino meat But I think he’ll overcome that and be embolden to be a well versed conservative that won’t be pushed around by whining Liberals — in the media or not.

Ted Cruz, love him. Disaster if he runs for President. It would probably stop the Tea party in it’s tracks losing him in the Senate to a failed candidacy. He needs a few more years in the barrel stuck away in a wine cellar.

Sarah Palin — what a perfect candidate to run opposite Hillary. She’s everything Hillary isn’t. Real wife, real mother, real woman and doesn’t need a team of handlers orchestrating her every move and utterance to disguise she’s a fascist Progressive — and inept one at that as she’ll find out as “what difference does it make” becomes her anti-slogan. But Sarah too isn’t in the right area of her life to run, perhaps that would change, but she’s positioned herself as bona fide King maker. Capable of rousing crowds, the pithy soundbite, and raising money and sticking with principles.

My current fear is she’ll be the first person to run for vice-president twice. If you know what I mean, you know, if you dont’, don’t ask.


34 posted on 03/04/2014 10:44:39 PM PST by Usagi_yo (Standardization is an Evolutionary dead end.)
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To: Usagi_yo

I don’t believe she’d be the first person to run for VP twice but I’m too tired to do the research right now.


35 posted on 03/04/2014 10:47:00 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (I will raise $2M for Sarah Palin's next run, what will you do?)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Sabato played a part in the democrat dirty trick campaign against George Allen when Allen ran for governor.
SAbato is a democrat hack, imo


36 posted on 03/04/2014 11:25:16 PM PST by RginTN
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

lol, that wasn’t the point.


37 posted on 03/05/2014 1:22:17 AM PST by Usagi_yo (Standardization is an Evolutionary dead end.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Both Jefferson and Lincoln were extraordinarily brilliant men elected at unusual moments in our nation’s history under a system that actually has changed significantly even since the time of Lincoln.

That said, I don’t know why the writer is so enthralled with Portman, about whom it’s hard to remember anything, and who strikes me as a bland and totally non-executive person.

I think experience, after the disaster of Obama the inexperienced and unable-to-learn (because he doesn’t think he needs to), we’re going to need someone with serious executive experience, and that’s one thing governors are good for.

Bush was an excellent Florida governor, but I don’t think he has much chance just because of his name. Walker might be good, although I don’t think he’s a very personable campaigner. If Palin hadn’t resigned her governorship, she would have been good. And, fortunately, I think Christie is toast because of his stupid stunts with the Port Authority punishing his enemies. You never hear him even mentioned anymore by the GOP-e.

Perhaps Jindal should be considered. There’s also my governer, Rick Scott, who has done well overall economically (while I don’t like his accomodations to Obamacare and Common Core), but is not at all a national campaign type. We also have Susanna Martinez, but I don’t know a thing about how she’s governed NM, and Nikki Haley, who is a mixed bag, from what I’ve heard from people in SC.

The author did make one good point, which is that the GOP shouldn’t be desperate to get a “minority” (a misnomer if there ever was one) or a woman as a candidate, because the Dems own that demographic and in the eyes of the press, which essentially does the publicity for the Dems, any GOP candidate automatically gives up their minority or female status simply by being Republican and will get no positive bounce for it.

Which brings us to a final thing: Americans really don’t care about competence. Obama was elected because he was a celebrity, created by the liberal press, and crazy enough on his own to believe every gushing word the press wrote about him simply because he was part black and had an exotic foreign Muslim and leftist background. There is a possibility that after experiencing the disaster created by Obama, people might want somebody more substantial next time, but I don’t have a lot of confidence in that. Still, it’s what we need: somebody who knows what he or she is doing.


38 posted on 03/05/2014 3:06:39 AM PST by livius
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To: be-baw

Doesn’t matter who the GOP puts up. The purist conservative movement will stay home and whine about how so and so is not this or that. Just like they did the last time around. Then, they will whine and moan about how awlful the newly elected Dem President is, just like now. Those self-absorbed shoe sniffers brought us Zero and, if they have anything to say about it, will bring us Hillary.


39 posted on 03/05/2014 5:07:08 AM PST by PIF (They came for me and mine ... now it is your turn ...)
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To: ProtectOurFreedom; blam; Diogenes; Cololeo; crosslink; Jane Long; BuckeyeTexan; Jacquerie; All

” - - - Happy talk, campaign promises and speaking slots at national conventions - - - - “

Dr. Larry J. Sabato is well suited to be a writer for Politico, the Magazine for shallow, left-wing, low information voters. These writers pass themselves off as the “intelligentsia” of the 47 % who pay no Personal Federal Income Taxes.

IOW, they make a living as long as we keep on giving.

Larry J. makes a living by spading around in the surface layers that are rich in the manure of the words and antics of those who are in politics for the fun of it:
* Mrs. Bill “Benghazi” Clinton;
* Joe “Chains” Biden;
* John “Catchup” Kerry;
* John “Benghazi Coverup” Boehner;
* Harry “Do Nothing” Reid;
* “Son-of-a-Mitch” McConnell; and
* All loyal Obamacrat RINOs and Democrats.

It can never get to shallow for the manure-diggers and their megaphone employers at Politico, New York Times, Washington Post, Boston Globe, LA Times, Huff-Puff Post, MSNBC, NBC, CBS, ABC, and, of course, the Clinton News Network, CNN.

_____________

What Larry J. ignores is what is interesting. Listed below are a few topics as follows:

* Whereas Larry J. is a true believer in the school of thought that “The Man Makes the History,” the opposite is less easy to prove, but has many adherents, including yours truly.

* Larry J. gives the impression, IMHO of course, that an understanding of basic motivation factors are not necessary to predict election success or failure.

For example, Larry J. mentions “decades of partisan polarization,” and “smoke and mirror budgets,” but does not dig deeper through that shallow political manure layer to opine on the root causes of polarization and economic deception that motivate voters at a basic level.

Note: Here I make the assumption that one basic motivation factor for voters is that they “always vote their pocketbook.”

Ponder these questions:

* What if our polarization was directly related to numerical value our total National Poverty Debt?

* Has our failure to punish politicians who have not been good stewards of our tax dollars done the following:
* weakened our desire to enforce the US Constitution;
* decreased our belief in making a profit by honest hard work; and
* acceptance of the permissive “boys-will-be-boys” attitude toward the politicians that we pay to Regulate us?

* Are we, the voters, the root cause of the political tyranny that now controls everything we do?

IOW, have we created the optimum conditions for us to become victims of tyranny?

It is always easy to point the finger of blame towards others, but notice how many fingers are pointing back at you - - - .

Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/03/republicans-need-a-champion-in-2016-104177.html#ixzz2v6BEEKvy


40 posted on 03/05/2014 7:47:13 AM PST by Graewoulf (Democrats' Obamacare Socialist Health Insur. Tax violates U.S. Constitution AND Anti-Trust Law.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
if the general election turns out to be closely competitive, as most open-seat contests for the White House are, who among the Republicans can redraw an Electoral College map
On what planet are most open-seat presidential elections competitive? Let’s face it, there is a strong tendency for a sitting POTUS to win reelection - and an even stronger tendency for the public to be sick and tired of the party in power after 8 years. Ronald Reagan broke that trend on both ends - defeating a sitting POTUS in 1980, and seeing his sitting VP win election to POTUS in 1988. But aside from that instance and Washington and Andrew Jackson, sitting VPs don’t win election because the public is tired of their sitting POTUS.

Truman is not an exception, because he was a sitting PoTUS, not VP, in 1948. Neither Harding nor Coolidge ran for a second term, so Coolidge and Hoover don’t break the mold either.


41 posted on 03/05/2014 10:21:14 AM PST by conservatism_IS_compassion ("Liberalism” is a conspiracy against the public by wire-service journalism.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Neither Thomas Jefferson nor Abraham Lincoln ever ran much of anything before gaining the presidency.
Jefferson was governor of Virginia.

42 posted on 03/05/2014 10:32:44 AM PST by conservatism_IS_compassion ("Liberalism” is a conspiracy against the public by wire-service journalism.)
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To: arthurus

Of course he won’t. When people hear “Bush” again, that’s all the ammunition Clinton will need.


43 posted on 03/06/2014 9:11:28 AM PST by Patriot95
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To: be-baw

I agree with you - totally!

In a primary I always go for someone who has been a good governor or had successful experience as the CEO of large corporation, or senior general/admiral with known positions.

Senators although may have the right positions, are too likely to be poor leaders in the WH. Their strong suit is their mouth.

In the general election I go for whoever wins the primary - regardless. I always vote. Well, I did miss in ‘52/’53 when I was in Korea.


44 posted on 03/22/2014 4:58:38 PM PDT by elpadre (AfganistaMr Obama said the goal was to "disrupt, dismantle and defeat al-hereQaeda" and its allies.)
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