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Carville: Handicapping the GOP for 2016
The Hill ^ | April 29, 2014 | James Carville, Democratic operative

Posted on 04/29/2014 8:11:37 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

Anyone who loves politics and horse racing is out to try and handicap anything this week. My favorite Saturday, outside any Saturday that Louisiana State University plays football, is the Kentucky Derby. It might not be very fashionable these days to be a horse degenerate, but that’s what I am. Thinking about the up and coming presidential election, I will use some horse racing analogies to talk about 2016.

On the Democratic side, there has never been a more non-incumbent prohibitive favorite than Hillary Clinton. Seems to me the best horse analogy would be Secretariat running in the Belmont Stakes in 1973, who went off a 1-10 favorite and won by 31 lengths. Not much interest there, but there’s a lot of interest on the Republican side.

The truth of the matter is that most good handicappers don’t look at the field and put their mark by the horses they think can win. Best practice says you go throughout the field and throw out the horses that cannot win. In doing this, smart handicappers will look at each horse to see if it’s capable of going the distance, they will see if the horse’s degree and pedigree lends itself to being able to win the Derby.

A candidate that can win the Republican nomination, at least since 1944 — with the possible, and I mean possible, exception of 1964, with the nomination of Barry Goldwater — has always been easy to predict at this point in the cycle: it was the one who had the capacity to raise the most money and who had the ability to draw across wide sections of the Republican Party to grab support.

The Republicans never nominate against (again, with the possible exception of 1964) the mainstream of their party.

Given this, I think we can throw out Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio. Which leaves us former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and Texas Gov. Rick Perry. I am torn as to where to put my own governor, Bobby Jindal; I tend to throw him out of the running because most nominees for president have had national stature at this point, which it seems he’s is missing, but I might include him in a small play to hit a jackpot.

As for Gov. Huckabee, he is built more like what handicappers call a “rabbit” — he could jump out to a quick lead, but isn’t likely to hold on for the whole race. Sen. Rubio ... well, let’s say he was declared ineligible because his jockey didn’t have the correct papers. In terms of Gov. Bush, we don’t even know if he will be running, and the April 20 New York Times story about his financial dealings post-governorship have caused quite a stir among the commentariat. Gov. Walker can mold himself more in the mainstream, but I am completely uncertain as to his ability to run on a track in a race of this magnitude and duration.

Gov. Perry has a big advantage, in that he has been around the track once and he knows what the track is like. The only problem for him is that it is the same track he essentially finished last on.

Gov. Perry can raise a bucket load of money without even trying and Gov. Perry, unlike Walker, has got a compelling economic story to tell. And I think he’s more electable. So I think if I went to the window right now, I would bet the exacta on Bush, Perry.


TOPICS: Campaign News; Parties; Polls
KEYWORDS: 2016; bush; carville; commies; cruz; greta; juanwilliams; marxism; perry; scientologist; xenu
Carville is a political contributor for Fox News. He also serves as a professor at Tulane University in New Orleans, where he lives with his wife, Republican strategist Mary Matalin. Their book Love and War is in stores now. His column will appear twice a month in The Hill.
1 posted on 04/29/2014 8:11:37 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Carville: Handicapping the GOP for 2016

Rove, handicapping the GOP for 2016.

It’s all about the punctuation.


2 posted on 04/29/2014 8:13:35 PM PDT by cdcdawg (Be seeing you...)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
my own governor, Bobby Jindal; I tend to throw him out of the running because most nominees for president have had national stature at this point, which it seems he’s is missing, but I might include him in a small play to hit a jackpot.

What a dig on Jindals stature

3 posted on 04/29/2014 8:19:29 PM PDT by MadelineZapeezda (Remember, this is an administration which will not profile terrorists, but profile patriots? /Newt)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I feel certain that the GOP will manage to destroy any advantage they have as they always do! Seems that they are more inclined to go after the Tea Party than Obama or the Democrats.


4 posted on 04/29/2014 8:23:22 PM PDT by Deagle (ues)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Carville is a political contributor for Fox News.

FNS, a onetime credible source for news and informed opinion has become a forum for vile leftists. Having an abortionist like James Carville is just another example of how they've lost their mission. Bob Beckel, Juan Williams, Geraldo Rivera and Shepherd Smith are all traitors and should not be given a medium to express their extreme marxist views.

Fox could go a long way by hiring genuine Patriots like Mark Levin, Jim Robinson and Allen West while firing all of those previously listed as well as the liberal Bill O'Reilly.

5 posted on 04/29/2014 8:35:05 PM PDT by re_nortex (DP - that's what I like about Texas)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
"The Republicans never nominate against (again, with the possible exception of 1964) the mainstream of their party. "

Not so.

Both Goldwater AND Reagan were outside the mainstream of the GOP.

6 posted on 04/29/2014 8:35:22 PM PDT by Mariner (War Criminal #18)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Handicapping the GOP for 2016

Jeb or Krispy Kreme can both certainly do that.

7 posted on 04/29/2014 8:39:59 PM PDT by Colonel_Flagg ("Compromise" means you've already decided you lost.)
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To: cdcdawg

You mean like:

“Let’s eat, Grandma”

vs.

“Let’s eat Grandma.”


8 posted on 04/29/2014 8:54:36 PM PDT by sauropod (Fat Bottomed Girl: "What difference, at this point, does it make?")
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To: re_nortex

“FNS, a onetime credible source for news and informed opinion has become a forum for vile leftists.”
_________________________________________________
I use to watch FNC, but after a few doses of CarVILE, fatso Beckel, and their other Commies, I pretty much quit watching.
Having Free Republic online all day is all the US news that I want.
America is in very deep trouble, and I have not yet heard anyone say how it can be fixed.


9 posted on 04/29/2014 9:05:51 PM PDT by AlexW
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To: AlexW
I use to watch FNC, but after a few doses of CarVILE, fatso Beckel, and their other Commies, I pretty much quit watching.

By the way, my mistake was a typo of FNS when I knew it was FNC. The one person on the channel admired by many here and elsewhere is Greta van Susteren. Personally, I can't fathom how any channel, much less Fox News, would give an hour to cult member, one who believes in the heresy of L. Ron Hubbard, another leftist.

10 posted on 04/29/2014 9:10:26 PM PDT by re_nortex (DP - that's what I like about Texas)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
On the Democratic side, there has never been a more non-incumbent prohibitive favorite than Hillary Clinton.

I thought she was the non-incumbent prohibitive favorite in 2008.
11 posted on 04/29/2014 9:12:24 PM PDT by Chad_the_Impaler
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Carville has about a dead man's opinion of anything anymore...

Hard to understand anyone gives a rip what he thinks.

His wife is a kook...BTW.

12 posted on 04/29/2014 9:12:55 PM PDT by Osage Orange (I have strong feelings about gun control. If there's a gun around, I want to be controlling it.)
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To: Chad_the_Impaler

And again in 2020. [chortle]


13 posted on 04/29/2014 9:13:11 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (I will raise $2M for Cruz and/or Palin's next run, what will you do?)
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To: re_nortex

“Greta van Susteren.”
_______________________________________________
Yes, I have seen her a few times but I do not know her time slot, and have not charted the others. I am 12 hours from EST.


14 posted on 04/29/2014 9:23:15 PM PDT by AlexW
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To: AlexW
Avoid Greta van Susteren at all costs. Her belief system is based on Dianetics and NOT the Holy Bible, upon which America was built. At the basis of her cult is its founder, satanist L. Ron Hubbard who stated:

The historic Jesus was not nearly the sainted figure (He) has been made out to be. In addition to being a lover of young boys and men, he was given to uncontrollable bursts of temper and hatred. It is historic fact and yet man still clings to the ideal, so deep and insidious is the biologic implanting.

As far as I'm concerned, van Susteren needs to be fired along with Carville, Williams, Beckel, Rivera, Smith and the rest of the God-denying commies. Yes, admittedly she has some acting skills much like other Scientologists such as Tom Cruise, John Travolta and Kirstie Alley.

15 posted on 04/29/2014 10:03:07 PM PDT by re_nortex (DP - that's what I like about Texas)
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To: re_nortex

How does Dianetics compare with my choice to follow the Church of the Subgenius.

http://subgenius.com/


16 posted on 04/29/2014 11:22:41 PM PDT by Usagi_yo
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To: Usagi_yo
Any religion or philosophy not following the God of the Holy Bible is a wicked cult and is of satan. America was founded on Judeo-Christian principles. Conservatism is pro-God. Anything else is liberalism and thus evil.

I am the Lord thy God, which have brought thee out of the land of Egypt, out of the house of bondage.

Thou shalt have no other gods before me.

Thou shalt not make unto thee any graven image, or any likeness of any thing that is in heaven above, or that is in the earth beneath, or that is in the water under the earth. -- Exodus 20:2-4

17 posted on 04/29/2014 11:39:52 PM PDT by re_nortex (DP - that's what I like about Texas)
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To: re_nortex

But BoB is cool. BoB doesn’t stress us out. BoB believes in God and Jesus, BoB just doesn’t believe in man.

http://subgenius.com/


18 posted on 04/30/2014 12:38:00 AM PDT by Usagi_yo
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To: cdcdawg

That’s funny!


19 posted on 04/30/2014 3:06:00 AM PDT by Vermont Lt (If you want to keep your dignity, you can keep it. Period........ Just kidding, you can't keep it.)
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To: Chad_the_Impaler

More so than FDR in ‘36?


20 posted on 04/30/2014 3:07:23 AM PDT by Vermont Lt (If you want to keep your dignity, you can keep it. Period........ Just kidding, you can't keep it.)
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To: cdcdawg

Gov. Perry, unlike Walker, has got a compelling economic story to tell. And I think he’s more electable.

Total nonsense. Walker has a much better chance at winning the Presidency than Perry. Walker has walked the fires of hell during the recall. Perry is still considered an idiot by the majority of America. If we want to lose the election, chose Perry as our nominee. If we want a Governor who can win, pick Walker. It is as easy as that.


21 posted on 04/30/2014 4:37:16 AM PDT by napscoordinator ( Santorum-Bachmann 2016 for the future of the country!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

So James thinks Hillary is a stud?


22 posted on 04/30/2014 4:45:46 AM PDT by Theophilus (.)
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To: napscoordinator

I like Perry a lot, but he’s got some baggage from the last time around. Walker looks like the best possible candidate to me. He could be stronger on the border, but that hasn’t been a big issue for him in Wisconsin. Walker could change the electoral map.


23 posted on 04/30/2014 5:17:44 AM PDT by cdcdawg (Be seeing you...)
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To: Vermont Lt
More so than FDR in ‘36?

FDR was an incumbent in '36.
24 posted on 04/30/2014 9:15:54 AM PDT by Chad_the_Impaler
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To: Chad_the_Impaler

I know...but they did not specify. I was being a smart ass.


25 posted on 04/30/2014 1:54:42 PM PDT by Vermont Lt (If you want to keep your dignity, you can keep it. Period........ Just kidding, you can't keep it.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet; All

I read all this stuff and, I still say that if the GOP nominates two old white men for Prez and VP in 2016, we lose. We need a woman and we need a Hispanic. The first pair that comes to my mind is Palin/Cruz or Cruz/Palin.


26 posted on 05/02/2014 9:38:37 PM PDT by Din Maker (Rand Paul, Rick Perry endorsed McConnell over Bevin. Neither will ever get my vote in 2016.)
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To: Din Maker

Nice choices...but you are just like the Democrats falling into the PC, class warfare, anyone but a white person kind of thinking...

Isn’t it a hoot that we don’t have any Indians running on the Republican ticket...hmmm, are there any Indians running on the Democrat ticket. All of the PC nonsense is getting us voters down!

How about a competent and non Washington person running that has common sense and no political ties to all of these money machines that control Washington? Probably not a chance but who knows, you may find a few if you do some research.

Do that and then vote for those folks...


27 posted on 05/06/2014 9:52:23 PM PDT by Deagle (ues)
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To: Deagle

How about a competent and non Washington person running that has common sense and no political ties to all of these money machines that control Washington?
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

That would work for you and me, but, the average, UNinformed voter doesn’t give a sh** about that. If we’re gonna win, we’ve got to give them who we want and make them think that’s who they want also.


28 posted on 05/07/2014 10:06:18 AM PDT by Din Maker (Rand Paul, Rick Perry endorsed McConnell over Bevin. Neither will ever get my vote in 2016.)
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