Free Republic
Browse · Search
GOP Club
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Trump pollster: Trump won because he was slightly behind
The Hill ^ | November 13, 2016 | Nikita Vladimirov

Posted on 11/13/2016 12:48:55 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet

John McLaughlin, a pollster for Donald Trump, on Sunday partly attributed the businessman's win in the presidential election to polls that showed him behind for most of the campaign.

McLaughlin compared Trump's victory to the come-from-behind campaign of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last year, saying there were a number of similarities between the races.

"We don't want to be ahead. Because if we are ahead, all of the sudden the psychology changes, the media focus attack on us even more so than they were doing," McLaughlin said in an interview with radio host John Catsimatidis.

"But there is an idea that when you are a little bit behind, all of the sudden your supporters get more energized. And we knew they were ... very energized to begin with," he continued.

McLaughlin, one of the few pollsters who predicted a Trump victory, also said that part of the reason Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton lost the election was because she did not have strong nationwide support like President Obama.

McLaughlin said that most pollsters made the mistake of looking at the 2016 election "like through a rearview mirror."

"2012 was the Obama coalition. Where he did very very well among minority voters, he did very well among women, he did very well among young voters. And Hillary Clinton never had that kind of enthusiasm. She always had the majority of Americans wanting to vote against her," he said.

McLaughlin added that Trump's team focused on voters who did not want four more years of Obama but were not yet supporting Trump.

"And ultimately that strategy reached out to a Rustbelt voter and a Sunbelt voter and combined them, and really you could see in the results of the election that that strategy worked," he said.


TOPICS: Campaign News; Polls; State and Local
KEYWORDS: 2016polls; enthusiasm; hillary; polls; trump
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-28 next last

1 posted on 11/13/2016 12:48:55 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

I don’t think Trump was ever behind throughout most of the campaign. The reason for this is the over-the-top near hysterical media attacks on Trump. If he was REALLY behind by as much as they always claimed, they wouldn’t have appeared and acted much more confident.


2 posted on 11/13/2016 12:54:57 PM PST by euram
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

“McLaughlin said that most pollsters made the mistake of looking at the 2016 election “like through a rearview mirror.”

I guess most of us here on FR are smarter than most of the pollsters. We new that you could not use the 2012 data and predict the outcome of the 2016 election.


3 posted on 11/13/2016 12:55:09 PM PST by Parley Baer
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet
I'm sure that Trump was never behind. The pollsters always over-poll and craft samples. They should have tested many different samples based on different turnout models, and chose to go with the ones that put Clinton in a big lead to gaslight the voters.

-PJ

4 posted on 11/13/2016 12:58:11 PM PST by Political Junkie Too (If you are the Posterity of We the People, then you are a Natural Born Citizen.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

Plus The Royal Idiot added his (cough) “community organizer” genius to the losing mix.

Obama sucked up to the Castros which queered Fla’s Cuban vote, of all places....the state Hillary really needed to win.


But then again, he always put his community organizer genius to work.

Remember when he sued banks for not giving mortgages to ne’er do wells who could not possibly pay it back.

Then, as president, he sued banks for burdening ne’er do ells w/ mortgages they could not possibly pay back.


5 posted on 11/13/2016 12:58:19 PM PST by Liz (Experience is a dear teacher, but fools will learn at no other. Benjamin Franklin)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

A few days before the election there was a poll showing Hillary beating Trump by 11 points in NH.

Real Clear Politics used that poll.
Nate Silver used that poll.

This was the worst, most corrupt polling effort by the media in my lifetime.

Trump won because he was the better candidate. Period.


6 posted on 11/13/2016 12:59:08 PM PST by InterceptPoint (Ted, you finally endorsed. About time.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

If he was behind by internal polling at the end than maybe the FBI announcement/political ploy did end up having a real impact. There should have been these types of questions on the exit surveys.


7 posted on 11/13/2016 12:59:10 PM PST by erlayman (yw)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Parley Baer
I guess most of us here on FR are smarter than most of the pollsters. We new that you could not use the 2012 data and predict the outcome of the 2016 election.

I was stunned at how stupid the pollsters were on that point.

They were so in the tank for Hillary that they literally couldn't think straight. That overrode their basic instinct for self-preservation.


8 posted on 11/13/2016 1:00:47 PM PST by cgbg (Pedophiles--the siren is wailing--incoming!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: InterceptPoint

Yup - that polling firm should be taken out to pasture and shot.


9 posted on 11/13/2016 1:00:52 PM PST by rb22982
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

Too funny. The MSM lied to make it look like Trump trailed Hillary thinking it would help her... and it helped Trump instead. Karma.


10 posted on 11/13/2016 1:03:36 PM PST by Cementjungle
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

McLaughlin is exactly correct, but there is one reason that he didn’t mention for expediency. The Democrats believed all their own slanted polls and slanted media pundits. If they thought that Trump had a real chance to win they would have cheated more in the critical states. As it was they still received at least 5 million fraudulent votes, but a couple million votes from non-citizens in California and a couple million more from non-citizens in New York didn’t have an impact on the electoral college.

They will not make that mistake again. If steps are not taken before the next federal election by congress, the president and a conservative Supreme Court to assure the legitimacy of the vote they will win every other election from now through eternity.


11 posted on 11/13/2016 1:05:05 PM PST by fireman15 (The USA will be toast if the Democrats are able to take the Presidency in 2016)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

he was never behind.


12 posted on 11/13/2016 1:05:35 PM PST by ColdOne ((poochie... Tasha 2000~3/14/11~WE DID IT DEPLORABLES!EraseThe0bagambiLegacy!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

He was never behind, they still don’t get it


13 posted on 11/13/2016 1:11:01 PM PST by Emergencyawesome
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Cementjungle

Oopsie: Hillary’s ground game might have ended up turning out … Trump voters
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3492895/posts


14 posted on 11/13/2016 1:15:42 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland US. There'd be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: Parley Baer
We new that you could not use the 2012 data and predict the outcome of the 2016 election.We new that you could not use the 2012 data and predict the outcome of the 2016 election.

Predicting turnout can be tricky. There's a certain amount of guessing involved.

Mitt Romney "knew" that you couldn't rely on 2008 turnout data to predict the 2012 election results. In the end, though, it turned out that Democrat turnout was higher than he expected and it cost him bigtime. The expected drop in Democrat votes didn't happen that time around.

15 posted on 11/13/2016 1:17:41 PM PST by x
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

Okay,
The whole Question of WHY Or HOW is
of no consequence.
It is What the Definition of “IS”,is.
Get It,IS!
TRUMP IS.


16 posted on 11/13/2016 1:18:01 PM PST by Big Red Badger (UNSCANABLE in an IDIOCRACY!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

When I coached ice hockey, I always told my kids to play as if they were one goal behind, no matter what the scoreboard said. It took awhile, but eventually the message sank in.


17 posted on 11/13/2016 1:18:43 PM PST by NTHockey (Rules of engagement #1: Take no prisoners. And to the NSA trolls, FU)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Liz
Don't forget all the Haitians who are upset with the Clintons, with very good cause. I think that had an effect in Florida also. BTW what did happen to all those Haitian orphans? Will we ever know?
18 posted on 11/13/2016 1:24:01 PM PST by ponygirl (An Appeal to Heaven.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: x

If you recall, Romney also threw development of a snazzy new GOTV mobile app to a bunch of Dem operatives. Of course, the app did not work on Election Day.


19 posted on 11/13/2016 1:26:41 PM PST by ponygirl (An Appeal to Heaven.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet
One of the things about this entire episode that impressed me was the spectacular energy Trump showed throughout. I'm 65 and, while not ready to succumb or surrender just yet to age, I get tired.

Last Sunday, didn't Trump hold rallies in 5 different cities ending the last one after midnight? He strikes me as being the real and true energizer bunny...just keeps going.

20 posted on 11/13/2016 1:28:31 PM PST by stevem
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-28 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
GOP Club
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson