Skip to comments.Believe It: Donald Trump’s Black Support Is Rising …… by how much is up for debate, though.
Posted on 08/20/2018 11:21:20 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
U.S. president Donald Trump is receiving higher-than-expected support from black Americans, according to new polling. But a vigorous debate is underway as to exactly how much black support he is receiving.
According to a new Rasmussen survey, Trump is backed by a whopping 36 percent of black voters.
If that sounds too high, its because it probably is. We arent convinced that number is accurate, although Rasmussen along with the Trafalgar Group was one of the few national firms to correctly predict Trumps upset victory in 2016.
They clearly knew something the other pollsters didnt then maybe they do now, as well.
Needless to say the Rasmussen poll which prompted headlines across the country necessitated some emergency propagandizing from the nations most liberal media outlets.
The poll is almost certainly incorrect, Harry Enten noted in an article on CNN. Polls of higher quality such as Quinnipiacs probability-based polls that are transparent about their data have consistently found Trumps approval rating to be much lower. (His) approval rating in these polls completed since July has averaged 12 percent with African-Americans. His disapproval rating has averaged 84 percent.
Of course Enten was compelled to acknowledge it does actually seem that Trump has gained support among African-Americans since the 2016 election.
That could wind up being a potentially historic understatement
If the Quinnipiac 12 percent figure is correct, it would equal the high water mark of black support for a GOP presidential candidate in the last nine presidential elections.
Only Ronald Reagan who drew 14 percent of the black vote in the 1980 presidential election has fared better. And again, all of this is assuming the worst case scenario when it comes to Trumps support among blacks.
Which explains the propagandizing
Equally eager to suppress the more black people like Trump narrative was The Washington Post, which published an article from Michael Tesler a liberal college professor from the University of California-Irvine.
After reminding readers of Trumps so-called attacks on the intelligence of prominent African Americans, Tesler urged them to be skeptical of outlier polls especially when those results fly in the face of what we already know about African Americans weak support for Republican presidents in general and their strong disapproval of Donald Trump in particular.
People absolutely should be skeptical of outlier polls. On that count, Tesler is correct.
Ironically, though, two of the non-outlier polls Tesler cited were Gallup and Ipsos, both of whom have Trump at 13 percent approval among black voters. Again, this would be a historic level of support were it to translate into electoral results.
So, the liberal spin against the Rasmussen poll is probably right but it is also revealing.
Republican presidential nominees Mitt Romney and John McCain drew just six and four percent of the black vote in 2012 and 2008, respectively. Trump got eight percent in 2016. Of course the real story in the 2016 election was black turnout which declined for the first time in two decades (to 59.6 percent from 66.6 percent in 2012, according to Pew).
Obviously Trump has significant hurdles to overcome in the months ahead (including the latest allegations from his former employee, Omarosa Manigault Newman), but if he can sustain his current level of black support it will go a long way toward buttressing against the blue wave we keep hearing so much about.
Ultimately, we believe Trump will rise or fall from his 2016 levels of support (with voters of all races) on the basis of how well the economy is doing
a.k.a. the Carville Maxim.
Well this will no doubt require a number of racist stories to come forward and get these thinking blacks back on the Dem plantation.
May it all be true and have coat tails in November.
“Obviously Trump has significant hurdles to overcome in the months ahead (including the latest allegations from his former employee, Omarosa Manigault Newman)”
If any sane person thinks Omarosa is a “hurdle” for Trump to “overcome”, I have some Florida swampland for you.
That number could be right and still be soft. For example, where is the support from blacks coming from? If it’s from states like AL, TX, LA, KS, etc... then it really doesn’t mean much in terms of the overall picture.
But, if the cross section is from places like OH, VA, NC or FL, then it could be a major story.
Bottom line, he has done enough already to get re-elected barring any major issues from now to then. If he were any other President (i.e. minus the tweeting and PR disasters) he’d win in a landslide.
Nothing of what Trump does or doesn’t do changes the facts that the Dems simply don’t have a message nor do they have a likeable candidate that can deliver said message.
I don’t think so.
And the commie media keeps on pushing the “Trump is a white supremacist” BS, they are PANICKING because if this poll is true..the DNC is DONE they cant win with numbers like that for the GOP
The Tweeting and the rest aren’t a bug, they’re a feature. Three things, besides hatred for Hillary, got Trump elected: His digital team along with Cambridge Analytica, his rallies and his Tweets and other social media messages. That’s why he was able to beat someone who spent 6X as much money as he did and had much more staff at every level and location. Tailoring that to a new opponent shouldn’t be too hard. Now if somehow Hillary is their nominee again (don’t think that couldn’t happen) it’d be even easier. I will raise $50,000 for Trump’s re-election and I urge everyone here to do what they can towards 4 more years.
Black males at Reuters 18%.
“The Democrats can’t afford to let him have even the lowest numbers in this story”
Correction: The Democrats/media can’t let stand the “appearance” Trump’s numbers are higher than in the past. It doesn’t matter what the real numbers are, they (Democrats/media) will fight to make blacks “think” Trumps polling has not improved because black voters have to be fooled into believing a certain narrative in order to keep them motivated to go and vote. Low Trump poll numbers, real or not, keeps their voters motivated to go vote. High Trump poll numbers, real or not, works to depress their voters. For Dem voters its all about emotion.
That’s why all polls controlled by Dems/media (aren’t the all?) has a default objective: Whatever is necessary to make polls reflect positive “findings” to help push the cause.
The Democrats are in free fall panic over this and #walkaway. Both are killing them.
I do believe that the numbers are rising, but I think the Trump Administration needs to bite off a chunk of urban real estate somewhere, preferably Chicago, and show some impact.
Time will tell
Trump is the least racist man to ever be president . In both his business life and politics, Trump has never seen color, if you do a good job and are loyal, you will prosper under the leadership of TRUMP.
TRUMP is going to win more of the black vote in 2020 thank any Republican has since Eisenhower. Trump is bringing back jobs and self respect to the black community
They couldn’t possibly run Hillary again. Really? Again? No, they’re not that dumb.
the NAACP poll had Trump’s approval rate among blacks at 31 percent, and among Hispanics at about 34 percent. The NAACP isn’t exactly Trump friendly, and their report on these figures was about why the numbers MUST be wrong. Even if Trump hits 20 percent among blacks and 30 percent among Hispanics, the dems will be in big trouble in the midterms. It wouldn’t be because blacks and Hispanics would turn out to vote republican, they would more likely stay home, because Trump himself isn’t on the ticket. So, if blacks and Hispanic voter turnout goes back to pre-0bama levels, that would be excellent, and any percentage over the usual for the gop would spell doom for the dems.
Trump’s building an underground railroad... a path that leads to freedom, jobs, and dignity...
When the black community becomes Trump supporters the black community will be allowed to solve their own problems. The community has had the answers all along - they just need to take power back - and away - from white liberal elites.
Don’t ever underestimate the power of the corrupt media. Whomever the Democrats nominate for 2020, the media will build them up as the next savior.
I agree. For the most part, in my view, policies that support low unemployment, respect for law enforcement, and school vouchers are all that blacks should be expecting from the federal government at this point in time, and Trump is delivering in spades. That said, I think you could get a much bigger shift in allegiance if Trump could point to a city like Chicago and say, “Hey, look how much better things are there now.”
If President Trump can get a serious hearing from blacks - and have coattails doing it - Democrat politicians will have to find some other scam than politics.
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