Posted on 05/27/2019 12:44:55 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Three modelers are predicting President Trump will win reelection in 2020 based on a combination of economic data and incumbent advantages, according to a column in The New York Times.
Steven Rattner wrote that Ray Fair of Yale favors Trump to win based on a model that combines incumbency and gross domestic product growth rates.
The model predicted Barack Obama’s 2008 popular vote margin within a fraction of a percentage point and got within two-tenths of a point for his 2012 vote share, Rattner, who served as a counselor to the Treasury secretary during the Obama administration, added.
The model correctly predicting an electoral victory for Trump in 2016, but overestimated his popular vote share by about 5.5 points, which Rattner attributed to Trump’s personal unfavorables.
“In other words, a more ‘normal’ Republican would likely have won the popular vote by a substantial margin (instead of losing it by three million votes),” Rattner wrote.
Trump’s status as the incumbent also puts the odds in his favor for 2020, according to the Obama-era official.
Mark Zandi, Moody’s Analytics’s chief economist, has also said Trump is poised to win based on an analysis of 12 models, while Donald Luskin of Trend Macrolytics made a similar prediction based on an Electoral College analysis, Rattner noted.
“So the question for 2020 may well be whether Mr. Trump can overcome the majority of voters’ poor perception of him and use a good economy and incumbency to win re-election,” he writes.
“overestimated his popular vote share by about 5.5 points”
Fraud factor neglected. No model is perfect.
Fraud will be massive...and hopefully Trump will be able to mitigate the damage before the election.
Positive ID
voting day only voting
Voting at designated polling places only.
Paper ballots.
No absentee voting except possibly for serving military.
Everything depends on Texas getting a handle on voter fraud. O’Rourke’s race against Cruz was the dry run, with college students and illegal aliens fertile areas for cheating in every urban area. Only the patriots in the rural counties and West Texas kept the weirdo from winning Cruz’s seat.
One major factor in 2016 was that Crooked Hillary was a horrible candidate - indeed detested by many. The 2020 candidates are even worse. Add their (beyond) radical ideas and a good economy, and my “model” shows a near 50-state Trump landslide.
GREAT pic!
> Do the models factor in the vote fraud that will be in high gear in 2020... <
The Left got lazy, and overconfident, in 2016. That won’t happen again. So voter fraud and media bias will be huge in 2020. Ballot boxes will be stuffed. And October Surprises will be prepared.
That’s why I wouldn’t take an even-money bet that Trump will be reelected in 2020. Maybe that’s my natural Hungarian pessimism. But I’ve got to call ‘em as I see ‘em.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3752459/posts
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3752459/posts
They forgot the voter fraud.
I would not doubt that they could manufacture (and suppress) 5% easily. they control all the major areas- and all you need to win is something like 37 out of some 2000 counties.
And they pulled out all stops for HilLiARy... and if we don't do something they will do even more this time BECAUSE THERE SEEMS TO BE NO CONSEQUENCES...!!!
Of course he will be re-elected.
and he needs to be given back the two years that were taken from him in this coup attempt.
Trump will win because of one very important factor: Trump has the smarts to win bigly — and he plays for keeps!
They stole at least four seats in California!
They got overconfident at the top in that they expected Mrs Bill to win going away. I believe the fraud in 16 and 18 were trial runs to see if there was a penalty. There was no penalty and The Revolution is what is at stake. Any Democrat win from now on is the last election of the two party system. I am not optimistic for the continued existence of the republic much less that we will ever get the culture back to something sane. The Public Schools and Universities over the last 50 years pretty much guarantees that once they get that last and most important lever of power again, it is all over. So long as they maintain the rituals of Democracy i.e. elections and do not change the nominal structure of the government the military will not intervene and may not even if there do a Soviet style makeover.
None of us look at polls as being truthful. That went out with Bubba.
I think there should be two days of voting available on the first weekend after the first Tuesday in November. None of this early voting. It's not necessary.
obviously fraudulent votes will meekly be accepted by the Republicans...”
If I think there is fraud, what the party does about will be irrelevant. ..
No model will be able to predict this election because all of the models are taking into account of past elections. This time around 15 states with a total of 197 electoral college votes going to the national popular vote total. This is over half of the majority required electoral college votes, 270, going to the candidate who wins the popular vote thus circumventing the electoral college. Since there is a three-hour difference between the time the polls close on the east coast to the west coast, the difference can be made up with phone calls to the west. Through the US Constitution states are given the latitude on how these votes are apportioned. Election night will change and if not correctly regulated DJT will not be re-elected because the election will be stolen by the likes of California, Hawaii, and Alaska. Who only need to make it look close but have the “correct” candidate win with the most popular votes. The SCOTUS cannot change this without changing the Constitution.
No , you need all the states to total 270 for the popular vote before it would go to congress and the supreme court, it doesn’t matter if Potus doesn’t get the popular as long as he gets 270 electoral votes he get’s it all.
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