Posted on 04/23/2002 8:47:06 PM PDT by Dan from Michigan
Schwarz says doubts about Posthumus driving GOP supporters his way
By KATHY BARKS HOFFMAN
The Associated Press
4/23/02 6:29 PM
LANSING, Mich. (AP) -- State Sen. John Schwarz says doubts about whether Lt. Gov. Dick Posthumus can win the governor's race in November is driving disenchanted GOP supporters his way, a charge the Posthumus camp denies.
"There's hand-wringing and tooth-gnashing going on," Schwarz said Tuesday. "My perception is that there is great discomfiture in the party in places like Oakland County and western Wayne. ... Those aren't the only places."
Anecdotes from Republicans show even some GOP faithful are struggling to remember Posthumus' name or how to pronounce it.
Crawford County GOP Chairman Randy Black said neither Posthumus nor Schwarz is well-known in his area of the state.
He's excited Schwarz has agreed to be the keynote speaker for the May 4 Crawford/Oscoda County GOP Lincoln Day dinner in Grayling. But he said most GOP voters don't know enough about either candidate to decide which they'll support.
Posthumus spokesman Sage Eastman said the lieutenant governor is getting plenty of positive comments as he travels the state talking about taxes, education and the environment.
By last fall, Posthumus already had the support of six of Michigan's seven GOP congressmen, 18 of 22 GOP state senators, 53 of 58 GOP state representatives, all 16 GOP congressional district chairs and 67 of 77 GOP county chairs.
He still had the backing of Michigan Republican National Committeeman Chuck Yob even after he called for Yob's resignation after Yob said women are best suited to run for secretary of state because "they like that kind of work."
The lieutenant governor has united the party behind his candidacy and expects plenty of people will know his name once he begins running ads, Eastman said.
"Senator Schwarz is a good guy, and I'm sure as the reality sets in that Republicans are staunchly behind Dick Posthumus and his campaign, it's getting a little frustrating for him," Eastman said.
But Schwarz said Posthumus' continued poor showing in the polls when paired with Democratic candidates shows Posthumus is faltering, as does the high number of undecided non-Democratic voters. That number stood at 67 percent in a March 18-21 poll conducted by Lansing-based Marketing Resource Group for Inside Michigan Politics. The poll's margin of error was plus or minus 5 percentage points.
"I'm starting to be given an opening, and it's incumbent upon me to take advantage of it," Schwarz said.
Posthumus still remains comfortably ahead of Schwarz and Troy businessman Ed Hamilton in polls of GOP voters, with Posthumus leading both challengers by at least 30 percentage points. Schwarz has not gotten more than 7 percent of GOP voters' support, while Hamilton has received 1 or 2 percent.
But Posthumus' showing against his potential Democratic rivals isn't as strong.
Two polls conducted earlier this year, one by Mitchell Research & Communications for The Detroit News and the other by EPIC/MRA for the Detroit Free Press, showed Posthumus lagging Attorney General Jennifer Granholm by more than 20 percentage points. He also trailed in matchups against former Gov. James Blanchard. Those polls had margins of error of 4 percentage points.
Political analysts say it's too early to despair over Posthumus' chances in the general election.
"I'm sure there are some people who are concerned about Posthumus' ability to win, but there were people who were concerned about (John) Engler's ability to win in 1990," said William Rustem of Public Sector Consultants in Lansing. "You just have to wait."
But analysts also say it's understandable why some Republicans are giving Schwarz a second look. Tom Shields of Marketing Resource Group says some party activists feel frustrated with Posthumus' performance in the polls, which gives Schwarz an opening.
"His chance to win the primary is to have the Republican faithful believe that the front horse is faltering," Shields said. "It's probably his only strategy to win."
Schwarz acknowledges he will have to do a lot to beat Posthumus in the Aug. 6 GOP primary. But he's determined to keep fighting.
"The questions have been for the past six weeks, `Are you in this thing to stay?' The answer is, `Absolutely and positively,"' he said.
Is Schwarz still fighting Ed Hamilton for 2nd place?
Gee, maybe I should tell the people of Crawford County his stance on the 2nd amendment. I doubt it will go over real well out in what is possibly the hunting capitol of Michigan.
In one poll, Hamilton beat Schwarz. In fact, Schawarz might not get on the ballot.
As for the other polls, Engler trailed Blanchard in 1990. It's about getting the message out.
I would NOT VOTE FOR SCHWARZ against anyone except MAYBE Granholm. I'll leave the race blank, vote third party, or even vote dem. He is EXTREMELY ASD, backed McSTAIN and was his campaign chair, pro-abort, HATES gun owners and calls them bubba, hates "zealot" pro-lifers, and will KILL US up and down the ticket.
Karl Rove said that 4 million conservatives stayed home. They will stay home if Schwarz is the nominee. Try getting NRA members to come out for Schwarz. It's not gonna happen. That will hurt the senate race, hurt Mike Rogers, hurt Candice Miller in the 10th district, hurt the candidate(McCotter probably) in the 11th district, and hurt all state reps and state senators.
Schwarz should quit, if his massive ego will let him.
Let's see if I got the RINO stradegy straight: REARDON, who's 120 years old and hated by every member of his own party, was the "only" one who could win in California. Corinne Wood, who's never won an election on her own and is tied arm-in-arm with the most corrupt, least popular Governor in Illinois, was the "only" one who could win. Liddy Dole, who hasn't lived in the state in forty years, has never held an elective office, and is the first NC GOP candidate is two decades without a conservative following, is the "only" one who can win. Lamar Alexander, who has lost EVERY election he's run in for the past twenty years and is remembered for horrible presidential campaigns, is the "only" one who can win. Ganske, a plastic surgeon turned politician with no money, charisma, or statewide following, is the "only" one who can win in Iowa. Schwartz, who's been in state Senate forever without doing anything and is best known for disrupting the election by getting Michigan Dems to vote for McCain, is the "only" one who can win.
The only way RINOs win in the midwest is if they have no primary opposition or no REAL primary opposition, or if they're running in an heavily liberal/Dem district. Otherwise, they usually get about 25% of the primary vote. In the three-way race for Governor in Illinois, it was roughly 45% for moderate-conservative GOP establishment candidate Jim Ryan, 30% for unapologetic stauch conservative Pat O'Malley, and about 25% for the pro-abortion, gun grabbing RINO, Lt. Governor Wood. That's 75% of Illinois Republicans voting for someone who follows the party platform, vs. 25% voting for a Democrat in disguise. Since Michigan is a two way race, I figure probably 70% for the fairly conservative Posthumerous, vs. 30% for Schwartz. Unless there's a MAJOR scandal, Schwartz won't top 1/3rd of the primary vote.
Actually, if I was in Michigan, I'd probably skip the GOP primary because it's a done deal-- instead I'd through a wrench into the 'RATs plans by voting in their primary for Dave Bonehead (Bonior) and this "Butch" Hollowell guy.
I see Rocky” Raczkowski has a website up now, www.rockyforsenate.com Good! It's a nice start, particularly the Rocky vs. Levin section. Needs color. Also needs an section to fire up GOP primary voters, like Jim Durkin's
Bwhahahahaha. That was sarcasm....much like if someone asked me how my buddy Levin was doing.
BTW - I'm not the spelling police, but since I'm related to some Schwartzes, I have to correct the spelling. It's Schwarz without the T. Both German names, but no relation.
I have never seen Schwarz. I haven't seen him at ANY GOP event, EVER. This guy is running for governor. I've met all three sec of state candidates, and am on a first name basis with two of them. I'm on a first name basis with Mike Cox(He will win(over Gary Peters who is actually a strong dem). Count on it) I know Posthumus too, but he NEEDS to campaign more to the public besides the gunowners. It's great that's he's courting our votes, and I'm putting my time and money in his campaign, but he needs more than us. We swing races as much as 5%. We'll do our part.
He's got 40% of the vote no matter what. That's what Romney got against Levin. With the gun movement, add another 5%(IF WE TURN OUT). He still needs 5% and one more vote.
I think he can win(and it starts with that attitude), but it will take a lot of work, and a little bit of luck. This is a VERY similar race to 1990.
And in the dem primary, I think we should all vote for WHOEVER IS CLOSEST TO GRANDSTAND. Not Bonior unless he hits 27% in the polls. BLANCHARD.
That about sums up Fred Upton's political carreer. He is a GOP Congressman who votes as a Democrat on most issues. Socially liberal and economically less liberal.
Seems like there's at least one RINO congressman in just about every large state.
In Illinois, our no. #1 RINO congress is Mark Kirk (RINO-10th). He recently succeeded fellow RINO John "I don't want to impeach Clinton" Porter, to whom he was chief of staff. Kirk says he's "moderate", but his ACU rating is a whooping 48%. That makes him further left than two "centrist" Illinois Democrat Congressman, Bill Lipinskii of the southwest suburbs (ACU, 56%), and David Phelps of southern Illinois (ACU, 52%). Kirk says he belives in governing as "an independant, who doesn't do the bidding of either party". Maybe he should put his money where his mouth is and run as an "big I" Independant then. He'd probably suck more Democrat votes than Republican votes, making it possible for a REAL Republican to win the seat. ;-)
On the flip side, we have Congressman Phil Crane (R-8th), who scored a perfect 100% from the ACU for at least four years in a row.
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