Maryland Poll - April, 2003 (Mikulski/Steele Match-up)

President George W. Bush continues to do very well indeed in Democratic-dominated Maryland, with a steady-as-she-goes 55% favorable rating (54% in January). Thirty percent of Maryland voters view him unfavorably, and 15% have a neutral opinion of Bush.

Similarly, the President's job approval rating is, so far, rock solid in the Free State. Sixty-two percent approve of the job Bush is doing as president (63% in September 2002), and 31% disapprove, a two-to-one ratio. The remaining 7% offered no answer. Bush's numbers are certainly buoyed by huge figures among Republicans (91% approval), but he also does well with independents (57%), and splits the Democrats down the middle (46% to 45%).

Hence, Bush's re-elect numbers are not that bad for a candidate who lost Maryland by 17 points in November 2000. Thirty-nine percent said they would vote to re-elect Bush, 26% would replace him, and 35% would consider another candidate.

With the war in Iraq drawing to a conclusion, the economy and jobs (28%) have taken over as the most important issues facing the president and congress today. The war in, and the rebuilding of, Iraq hold second place with 21%, and the overarching issue of terrorism is third with 16%.

Other issues generate single digit levels of concern: Education at 9%, the budget deficit at 8%, health care and prescription drugs at7%, taxes at 6%, and the environment and crime/drugs at 1% each. The remaining 3% offered no answer.

Sixty-one percent of Maryland voters surveyed favored the recently-conducted military action in Iraq, while 27% were opposed, figures which closely mirror the President's job performance numbers. Twelve percent gave no answer.

Voters were then asked whether they would favor or oppose military action in Syria if

there is evidence that Assad's government there possessed weapons of mass destruction. Forty-eight percent said they would favor military action, and 41% were opposed. The remaining 11% offered no answer.

Responding to an open-ended question, 41% of survey respondents said that the primary responsibility for the looting for the Museum of Antiquities in Baghdad belonged with the looters themselves. Ten percent assigned primary responsibility to poor or oppressed Iraqis, 9% to Saddam Hussein loyalists, and 4% to museum officials. Just 3% assigned primary responsibility to the American military. Eight percent named others. The remaining 25% said they didn't know.

Incumbent Senator Barbara Mikulski's name is recognized favorably by 57% of Maryland voters surveyed, unfavorably by 24%, and neutrally by 17%. The remaining 2% didn't recognize Milukski's name.

Sixty-three percent said they approve of the job Mikulski is doing as U.S. Senator, while 22% disapprove. The remaining 15% offered no answer.

To test Mikulski's strength against one of the bigger potential weapons in the Republican arsenal, we matched her against Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele. Mikulski leads Steele 54% to 37% with 9% undecided.

To give the GOP any chance in a contest against a candidate as formidable as the diminutive Mikulski, it seems to us, the party is going to have to put forth a nominee with some credibility and stature, such as the recently elected Lieutenant Governor.

Considering that Mikulski is the most popular politician in Maryland, I'm surprised that Steele is 17% behind her among registered voters. If Sarbanes retires in 06', he could be a very viable candidate.

Alas, Steele won't be running, but then, after all, he was just elected to the Lieutenant-Governorship. If Steele decides to run for the Sarbanes seat, he'll have to do it when Ehrlich is up for reelection, which means Ehrlich will have to find another running mate. There's been talk of luring another popular Black pol, Wayne Curry, to switch parties and run for the Senate (he'd presumably be even stronger than Steele, but I don't know the man's positions), but he's rejected that for the short run. At this point, I think the GOP should lure Rep. Gilchrest to make the race against Mikulski. We could then get a Conservative into that seat. If Gilchrest wins, then all the better.

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