Black and Hispanic vote went Republican? (my title)

USA Today ^ | 10-08-2003 | USA Today/Edison Media Research

[NormalGuy]

Schwarzenegger 17% of Blacks, 30% of Hispanics 37% OTHER
McClintock- - - 6% of Blacks, 9% of Hispanics McClintock 19% OTHER
Republicans- -23% of Blacks, 39% of Hispanics Republicans 55% OTHER .

[NormalGuy]

So what is OTHER? In an exit poll what category did Ward Connerly put himself in? That's right, Other means "my race is irrelevant". More Blacks than 23%voted Republican. More Hispanics than 39% voted R

This against minority opponents, Bustamante and Camejo, not to mention Gary Coleman. See it from a Hispanic viewpoint. PRD/Camejo is the Green Party of Mexico. PRI/Bustamante is the Democrat Party of Mexico. PAN is the Republican Party of Mexico. PAN has Libertarian, Social Conservative and Country Club factions just as does the Republican Party.

Some FReepers say Republicsns can't get 10% of Blacks and we should write them off. I say Bush will do better than this in 2004. But only if we don't write them off. I say campaign color blind. Go for everybody's vote.

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[NormalGuy]

Do any of you have a better analysis?

[Kuksool]

23% of the black vote for Republican candidates in the Recall election is definitely better than 10%. 29% of blacks voted "Yes" on the Recall. I find this figure odd. Gray Davis has done little or no pandering to so-called black leaders, yet blacks ended up being Grayout's most loyal voters last night. It boggles the mind.

[BillyBoy]

I agree that Arnold is the Vicente Fox of California, but this means nothing. Arnold got some minority votes in "safe" Democrat areas for the same reason George Ryan got feminazi/envirowacko votes in some "safe" Chicago wards. A leftist running on a conservative party will cancel out liberal voters distain for the "conservative" party because the know the candidate HIMSELF will govern as a leftist. In another words, the liberals were still voting for a liberal-- except he was a stealth liberal.

In the short term, it expands the voter base, but in the long term, these kinds of minority voters should return to the liberal party fold after the candidate they voted for is gone.

In Mexico, there appears to be little difference in the actual governing style of the PAN as compared to the PRI. In theorty, the PRI is "center-left" and PAN is "center-right", but the leaders of both parties are equally liberal. In some respects, Vicente is even more liberal because his came into office with a cocky attitude that his "outsider" status would allow him to demand President Bush do his bidding on foriegn policy issues. The PRI had usually been unconcerned about the U.S. policy ininternational affairs that didn't relate to border to Mexican-United States issuses.

In order for conservative parties to appeal to hispanics and other minorities in the long run, they have to empathize social issues that those voters agree with a find a way to trump them over the economic liberalism that minority voters tend to be associated with. Bret Schundler did this in Jersey City, it's very difficult to replicate on a national level.

[jagrmeister]

I agree that we have to compete for minority votes. Our best bang for the buck is appealing to the Latino community. They are upwardly mobile, patriotic, and truly religious (and do have not surrendered their churches to the political left like the black community has, unfortunately). Latinos aspire to the American dream and have an abiding belief in entrepreneurship (they are beginning to dominate construction in many areas) and education. Social conservativism is also an area we shouldn't take for granted. We need to not just communicate to Latinos that the GOP can offer their family a brighter future but that there are real differences on social issues with the Democrats on abortion, gay marriage, etc. With a concerted effort, I see no reason why we can't pull even with Democrats on the Latino vote within 3-4 years.