Immigrants may be key to Bush victory

Chicago Sun-Times ^ | 10-18-03 | MORTON KONDRACKE

[JustPiper]

If the 2004 election is another squeaker, President Bush could lose it because he failed to follow through on his promise to help undocumented Hispanic immigrants gain legal status.

Polls indicate that Latino voters regard immigration as a litmus test issue -- the way African Americans do civil rights, one expert said -- and Bush shows signs of losing once-promising support.

Meantime, Democratic presidential candidates and members of Congress -- with some assistance from Republicans -- are moving to seize the immigration issue that Bush so far has dropped.

Bush can recoup -- and some GOP strategists say he must -- by showing renewed interest (or even taking leadership) to help illegal immigrants get legal and secure U.S. borders at the same time.

Bush carried 35 percent of the Latino vote in 2000 after a vigorous outreach effort (and frequently speaking Spanish on the stump) -- nine percent more than GOP candidate Bob Dole got in 1996.

On Sept. 6, 2001, with Mexican President Vicente Fox by his side, Bush said ''there are many in our country who are undocumented and we want to make sure their work is legal.''

After Sept. 11, 2001, homeland security concerns put a freeze on Bush's plans, and then relations with Fox soured because Mexico opposed the Iraq war. Both immigration and U.S. policy toward Latin America get constant coverage on Spanish-language television.

So this August, a New York Times/CBS poll showed that only 21 percent of Latinos would vote for Bush. And a poll for the GOP Latino Coalition showed that a generic Democrat would beat Bush by 49 percent to 30 percent.

The latest bipartisan Battleground survey showed that, of all demographic groups, Latinos showed the largest ''dropoff rate'' -- a 15 point difference between Bush's personal approval rating of 61 percent and his job performance of 46 percent.

The falloff has also hurt the GOP. In 2000, GOP congressional candidates won 34 percent of the Latino vote, according to exit polls. In 2002, it was 35 percent. But in the August Latino Coalition poll, registered voters said they'd vote Democratic 55 percent to 25 percent.

All this is despite findings that 35 percent of Latinos defined themselves as ''conservative'' and only 22 percent as ''liberal'' -- and by a whopping 53 percent to 7 percent, they said that lowering taxes was a better way to grow the economy than raising taxes.

Conducted by the GOP firm of McLaughlin and Associates, the poll found that 86.7 percent of Latinos favored a policy allowing the federal government to ''normalize the status of illegal workers in this country'' provided they have a clean record.

Moreover, 90.8 percent polled said it was ''important'' -- and 74.8 percent, ''very important'' -- that U.S. immigration laws be reformed to ''reduce illegal immigration by promoting a system which increases the legal flow of workers into this country.''

The leading Democratic presidential candidates are all in favor of plans to legalize undocumented immigrants with clean records, increase the number of work permits and visas, and reach an agreement with Mexico to strengthen border security.

In Congress, several bills have been introduced -- or will be -- to liberalize immigration rules. The most generous is a forthcoming measure being worked out by Sen. Edward Kennedy (D-Mass.) and Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.) allowing immigrants who have been in the country for five years, have paid taxes for three and have taken English instruction to get legal work permits.

While some Republicans are as progressive on immigration issues as most Democrats, the GOP has a significant nativist wing calling for the denial of public services to illegals.

GOP pollster Ed Geoas, who has done extensive polling on immigration, says he's convinced that Bush and White House political adviser Karl Rove are eager to take steps toward liberalization, but are waiting until homeland security and economic conditions are better.

Another key GOP strategist says, ''we have to revisit it. It's a big issue in battleground states like New Mexico and Florida.''

Bush had best not wait too long.

[JustPiper]

Bush had best not wait too long.

He better never...

[JustPiper]

Ping!

[Mini-14]

Polls indicate that Latino voters regard immigration as a litmus test issue

I also regard [illegal] immigration as a litmus test. President Bush supports illegal immigration = I don't vote for President Bush.

[NoControllingLegalAuthority]

If Bush is even considering illegal foreigners as his election ace in the hole, I hope he loses. What an insult to citizens and legal immigrants!

[JustPiper]

Sad, but I agree I cannot vote for him again either

[JustPiper]

An amen Bump!

[DumpsterDiver]

I also regard [illegal] immigration as a litmus test. President Bush supports illegal immigration = I don't vote for President Bush.

Ditto.

[BillyBoy]

Perhaps the RINO who wrote the article can explain why the percentage of "hispanics" voting Republican went DOWN after Reagan granted amnesty in '86. Gee, I'm sure it didn't have anything to do with these "first time voter" criminals electing Democrats because they wanted MORE freebies from the government.

Also, notice he says "on immigration, some Republicans are as progressive as some Democrats". Another jerk who thinks the GOP can win if they adopt a "me tooism" policy and parrot whatever the 'RATs say. Yeah, that worked GREAT in the 40s and 70s, didn't it?

[prairiebreeze]

The theory that the issue of not legitimizing illegals and making it easy for them to become citizens will automatically lead to poor Hispanic support and electoral defeat didn't hold water for Arnold Schwarzenegger.

I continue to hope that most Latino's want citizenship to occur through the established process.

Prairie

[Joe Hadenuf]

Bump....

[VU4G10]

[txdoda]

If the 2004 election is another squeaker, President Bush could lose it because he failed to follow through on his promise to help undocumented Hispanic immigrants gain legal status. >>>>>>>


Pres. Bush also took an OATH to up-hold all the US laws, and to work for the CITIZENS.

Anyway, in these so-called PC times, wouldn't it be a little racist to help *only* the hispanic illegals gain legal status ?? Hispanics seem to have a lot more than their share of the USA anyway, as they now get to "press 2" for spanish.

[Eastbound]

"Bush had best not wait too long."

Aren't those folks ever grateful though. He left the borders open on 9/11 and they are still open. Maybe it's just time to close them to keep anymore from coming in and voting against him for not 'legalizing' them. In fact, just send all the illegals here already back home and he won't have to worry about their support -- or lack of it. And that would include the terrorists as well, of course. An idea whose time is way past due.

[supercat]

Hey, I think amnesty is a great idea. If, before December 31, and before they are otherwise caught, illegal aliens go to the immigration offices and give fingerprints and DNA samples and fill out identification information, then they will have until December 31 to get out of the country legally. After December 31, any illegal alien who's caught receives six months detention if not on file, but gets their fingerprints and DNA added to INS files; aliens who are already on files get five years.

Anyone else support that sort of "amnesty"?

[supercat]

Pres. Bush also took an OATH to up-hold all the US laws, and to work for the CITIZENS.

He should also consider that illegal voters vote Democrat; anything that increases the number of illegal voters will thus hurt the Republicans.

[Voltage]

Perhaps the RINO who wrote the article....

Actually he is a Democrat. I think that explains it!

At some point, and maybe we are here now, people are going to be fed up enough with illegal's that it will cut the other way.

[Pubbie]

"Immigrants may be key to Bush victory"

Did pandering to illegals help Davis in the recall???

No it didn't because Illegal Immigrants don't vote, Kondracke you ^&%^ing Moron!

[BillyBoy]

A Democrat who wants to "help" Bush get hispanics to vote Republican so the Republicans can win? LOL. This guy sounds like a real con artist.

[txdoda]

LOL.......You would think ANYONE wanting to secure 'the vote' might listen to the VOTERS.

According to the idiot in this article Bush/Rove and the dems are going to spend millions fighting over that BIG 15% that are for ANOTHER amnesty.

[JustPiper]

The number's did show it backfired for the dems, so in a way it backs Morton's article more hispanic's are still conservative

[Kuksool]

***Immigrants may be key to Bush victory***

Yes, this is a true statement. Deport all illegals and the Democratic base will be neutered.

[ASA.Ranger]

"""""Polls indicate that Latino voters regard immigration as a litmus test issue

I also regard [illegal] immigration as a litmus test. President Bush supports illegal immigration = I don't vote for President Bush."""""

I agree!

[Pubbie]

"so in a way it backs Morton's article more hispanic's are still conservative"

But Kondracke is saying Bush needs to pander to the illegals as much as possible - even though it is clear that Davis' pandering to the Illegals is what helped take him down because sucking up to illegals is clearly UNPOPULAR.

Yet Kondracke wants Bush to do something that will piss off these same voters.

[JustPiper]

Then it really comes down to we are the minority, white? Citizens? And what happens if we don't vote for "W"? We put him in, we fought hard for him! We stumped for him, we donated money for him...what will he do without us?!

[JustPiper]

And the victim's of 9-11 deserve no less!

[JustPiper]

No denying though the hispanic vote from Florida sealed it for "W"

[JustPiper]

When Mort was on FNC he alway's seemed like a RINO to me

[Pubbie]

Kondracke is a Democrat.

[janetgreen]

If he's counting on the "hispanic" vote, he'll be sadly disappointed. Many Mexican-Americans resent the illegal invasion as much as anyone. Look what pandering to Mexico did to Gray0ut Davis, who will soon be out pounding the pavement begging for a job.

[Euro-American Scum]

I also regard [illegal] immigration as a litmus test. President Bush supports illegal immigration = I don't vote for President Bush.

And I'm just as sure that GWB doesn't care a hoot about this. Conservatives are to Bush what gays were to Bill Klinton. He knew he had them in his hip pocket no matter how he neglected them. And so does GWB with conservatives.

[txdoda]

We put him in, we fought hard for him! We stumped for him, we donated money for him...what will he do without us?!>>>>>

I suggest if W wants our vote, he needs to start listening to us. I believe he got his share of the hispanic vote, WITHOUT any pandering.

Pandering the hispanics, didn't help 'doofus' in CA, and now he's 'vetoing' his promises he made to hispanics.

[VU4G10]

Bush, GOP 'Naive' for Pushing Bill to Help Illegal Aliens, Critic Alleges
By Steve Brown
CNSNews.com Staff Writer
October 17, 2003

(CNSNews.com) - Illegal immigration opponents Thursday said President Bush and congressional Republicans risk losing their core voter base in national elections next year by embracing measures that would grant amnesty to illegal aliens. The remarks came as the Senate Judiciary Committee held a markup session on a bill that would allow in-state collegiate tuition and residency for illegal immigrants.

"The Bush administration wants to push for some form of amnesty but hasn't come to terms with how to do that without offending its political base," David Ray, spokesman for the Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR), told CNSNews.com.

[Kuksool]

Republicans can make a comback in California by addressing the problem of illegal immigration. If Republicans try to pander to illegals, they shall gain little votes from Latinos. In fact, they would lost more white votes than gain Latino votes. Instead of recruiting moderates to run in California, the CA GOP needs to take a harder stance on illegal immigration.

[Kuksool]

***Pandering the hispanics, didn't help 'doofus' in CA, and now he's 'vetoing' his promises he made to hispanics***

Grayout Davis is angry that La Raza and MECHA didn't bring enough Hispanics to the polls to save him from Recall. His vetoing of pro-illegal bills is his way of rewarding the illegals for their help.

[Ohioan]

I share the outrage that most of the posters have expressed over the obvious bias of this article. This is an excellent example of the way that the media seek to persuade politicians to always chase after segments of the electorate which will push things further Left. For generations, they have worked to make minorities with special agenda appear to be the decisive swing vote, when in fact they are most certainly not.

After all the prostitution of traditional American images and values, in the 2000 effort to increase the Republican vote among minorities, the fact is that an overwhelming majority of those chased under the Karl Rove strategy, voted as any one with common sense would have expected--for Al Gore. What Rove--who I sincerely believe is a dysron, being manipulated by people who think like the writer of this article--accomplished, was merely to dampen the enthusiasm of White native Americans for the two party system--hardly a result that promises any benefit to the Republican Party.

It ought to be obvious to anyone able to apply the intelligence that he or she was born with, that the larger the percentage of the native born majority who vote, the better the Republican chances are. The higher the percentage of those who come from groups which generally vote for Left leaning candidates, the worse the Republican chances are. Let's start applying some common sense, and stop digging a bigger and bigger hole to fall into. We may never get out, if we stumble again.

William Flax Return Of The Gods Web Site

[navyblue]

"No it didn't because Illegal Immigrants don't vote, Kondracke you ^&%^ing Moron!"

Uh, Pubbie! Yes they do! Just ask Loretta Sanchez and B-1 Bob!

[moodyskeptic]

I agree with your version of amnesty. Give illegals a serious deadline to fully comply and be logged into the database, anyone who refuses is subject to immediate deportation upon discovery. Rule of law following an olive branch with logical qualifiers..

Law abiding latinos want better tracking of latino criminals, and apparently want stricter deportation laws, in order to gain some peace in their neighborhoods.

Surprise, they are not all criminals after all. And not the Dem voting block we once supposed.

[4.1O dana super trac pak]

Hmmm...Kill this country to win an election.

Sounds like a great plan.

[WilliamofCarmichael]

The sponsors of the poll were The Latino Coalition and the Hispanic Business Roundtable. Now what did they expect the poll to find?

TLC's website says, "TLC will educate American leaders on the sensitive balance - and differences - within these Latino communities."

Great. Joining radical islamists at CAIR, TLC gets into the line of hundreds of cultures eager to educate us and our "leaders." No mention of learning American culture and heritage. No these folks interests are strictly promoting Access to Affordable Health Insurance, Mexican Trucks, Social Security Reform, Trade Promotion Authority (TPA), Prescription Drugs, Telecom Competition.

That is, goodies for their citizens here and trade advantages for their home countries -- where their hearts are even though some of their stomachs may be U.S. citizens. IMO.

That's where Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) comes in. It is a trade-negotiating tool, once known as “fast-track.” It is pending in Congress. With it any agreements made with their home countries would be binding on us. Congress could not change a thing.

You know, the real United Nations where every country has skilled representatives, is Washington, D.C.

[arthurus]

If illegals are Wace in the hole it is likeluy that if he plays that ace he will find that the rest of has hand has turned to drek.

[4.1O dana super trac pak]

BUMP. I've been checking out a little of their site, so far I've found out that they consider opposition to Mexican trucks crossing the border to be "discrimination" based on "national origin."

Sheesh.

[Aetius]

In a close election ANY group could prove decisive, but if Bush wants to be reelected he better increase his share of the white vote from the pathetic 54% he got in 2000. Karl Rove himself admitted that several million conservative evangelicals may have sat out in 2000 because of Bush's pandering, though thats not the way he put it.

One of the interesting things about immigration is its degree of importance to different groups. For Hispanics it probably is more of a top-tier, vote-deciding issue. For the electorate as a whole, though, it usually doesn't rank in the top w/ education, the economy, or national security. That is the key, because while most polls show a majority of Americans want less legal immigration, and are opposed to amnesty; there is not yet a large voting block demanding one of the parties implement such policies. Of course its hard when you can count on the media and one or both political parties reducing this complex issue to sob stories and platitudes.

Polls are fascinating in how the same question can be asked in different ways and the results will vary. This poll says a majority of Hispanics want to solve illegal immigration by increasing already mass levels of legal immigration. Yet Gallup did a poll in the summer that showed about 40% of Hispanics favored reducing legal immigration. The results of these two polls obviously contradict each other. As for the whole population, most polls show a majority of Americans favor reducing legal immigration, yet as I already said neither party gives voice to this, and the voters have yet to demand it.

SUPERCAT: You said illegals vote Democratic. Yes I'm sure some do illegally vote, and of those they vote overwhelmingly Democratic. More importantly, once they get amnesty, become citizens, and vote legally; they will still vote overwhelmingly Democratic. Just like most legal immigrants do. Thats something the GOP leadership fails to see.

PUBBIE: Some illegals no doubt illegally vote. And it will be easier in states where they can get drivers licenses thanks to Motor Votor laws. ID should be required to vote.

JUSTPIPER: You seemed to buy into the whole 'Hispanics are natural conservatives' ploy designed to dupe conservatives and Republicans into supporting mass immigration of all these alleged natural conservatives. Well there is a difference between for example saying you support lower taxes, or oppose gay marriage, and actually voting for candiates who share those views. Maybe most Hispanics really do hold many conservative views; so do many blacks but that doesn't stop them from voting overwhelmingly for Democrats yr after yr. As for Hispanics, even if the masses aren't as liberal as their leaders, they show no qualms about voting for far-left representatives. There has been no groundswell among Hispanics demanding their representatives be liberal on immigration, but conservative on everything else. Bush ostensibly gave them that option in 2000, yet they still went overwhelmingly for Gore. Same thing for Dole, BushI, and Reagan; all of whom were liberal on immigration, yet never broke 37% (Reagan 1984) of the Hispanic vote. In short, they may claim to be conservative, but they consistently vote liberal.

You also said that the Hispanic vote sealed the deal for Bush in Florida. Well you could also say that the white vote in Florida delivered the state to him. You could also say the elderly vote did it for him ( well here I'm not so sure, I seem to remember hearing he won the Fl elderly vote but I'm not sure). But as to Hispanics, his winning their vote in Fl was due to Cubans, who traditionally go Republican. But there are problems with taking heart in that. First of all, Cubans were becoming less Republican until the Elian Gonzales debacle got them fired up to go for Bush more so than they would have otherwise. Secondly, Cubans are not the only Hispanic game in town in Florida anymore. Most Hispanic growth in the state is from non-Cuban Hispanics, who go Democratic.

TXDODA: Maybe I misunderstood you, but it sounded like you said Bush didn't pander to get the Hispanics he got in 2000. I have to disagree. He pandered on a level that would make Democrats proud with all of his speaking in spanish, and saying things like 'family values don't stop at the Rio Grande.' I wanted to puke when I heard a so-called conservative reducing the issue of immigration to such a shameless pc soundbite.

[Pubbie]

All these problems for the GOP with the Latino Vote will be overcome if they just let in 20 Million eastern European Immigrants over 10 years into America because they vote overwhelmingly Republican.

[4.1O dana super trac pak]

Republicans do better when Latinos stay home:http://www.cis.org/articles/2002/back203.html

[dsutah]

Excuse me, but could some of you accusing Bush of just letting illegals in; show me where in the article that he actually is? Doesn't it say he wanted to help them GET LEGAL first? At least that's how I read it!

[Jack Black]

Straight our of this book:

Civil War II: The Coming Breakup of America
by Thomas W. Chittum

[BillyBoy]

>> No denying though the hispanic vote from Florida sealed it for "W" <<

Cuban vote, yes. "Hispanic" vote, certainly not. Nationwide, Cubans make up a very small percentage of "hispanics". Cubans may have tilted Florida to Bush, but that was canceled out by the Mexican vote in NM and other regions throwing their states to GORE. Take out their votes, and Bush probably won NM easily. The "hispanic" vote overall certainly caused Kennedy/Johnson to win the 1960 election. Otherwise, Texas' electoral votes would have ended up in the Nixon column, and with them, the presidency.

And most Cuban Americans are law-abiding folks fleeing persecution in an oppressive, communist country. They're very open about applying for asylum for being political prisoners and don't need to sneak into this country.

[JustPiper]

Yet Kondracke wants Bush to do something that will piss off these same voters.

I understand this, but 'we' are a force at FR to be reckoned with concerning our activism and we will not let up. We elected Bush and many of us will not vote for him again becauser of this issue!

[Euro-American Scum]

Just who is the base going to vote for in '04, I wonder, if not Bush? Howard Dean? Dick Gephardt? Joe Liebermann? Hillary?

It's not a rhetorical question. I've got the same problem. Unless a serious third-party candidate surfaces along the way, I may sit this one out. And by that, I don't mean Pat Buchanan or Ross Perot. Perot may have been viable, but he was only serious about torpedoeing Bush 41.