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Sun on Fire, Unleashes 3 More Major Flares
Space.com ^ | 11/3/03 | Robert Britt

Posted on 11/03/2003 1:34:54 PM PST by Tumbleweed_Connection

The Sun cut loose with three severe flares in less than 24 hours through Monday morning, bringing to nine the number of major eruptions in less than two weeks.

Scientists have never witnessed a string of activity like this.

Colorful aurora are expected to grace the skies at high latitudes and possibly into lower portions of the United States and Europe over the next two or three nights. Satellites and power grids could once again be put at risk.

Early Monday, Paal Brekke, deputy project manager of the SOHO spacecraft, was still digesting the significance of the three additional outbursts on top of two back-to-back monster flares Oct. 28 and 29.

Images

A major solar eruption early on Nov. 3, 2003, flung a cloud of expanding, hot gas into space. The myriad white spots are protons ahead of the storm slamming into the spacecraft's imager. Credit: NASA/ESA/SOHO

A space storm can only achieve full potential if its magnetic field is oriented south, opposite to that of Earth's protective magnetosphere which always points north.

"I think the last week will go into the history books as one of the most dramatic periods of solar activity we have seen in modern time," Brekke told SPACE.com.

None of the latest eruptions was aimed directly at Earth, but glancing blows are expected.

By the numbers

The flares this week began with an X8 event at 12:25 p.m. ET Sunday. On this scale, all X-storms are severe, and the number indicates the degree of severity. An X3 flare erupted at 8:30 p.m. Sunday.

Reports of the third flare are preliminary. It left the Sun at 4:55 a.m. Monday and is estimated to be an X4. The trio of outbursts comes within a week of the unprecedented, back-to-back severe flares rated X17 and X10.

The first four flares in this long, amazing series date back to Oct. 22 and were ranked less than X2.

All flares of this magnitude are capable of disrupting communications systems and power grids and harming satellites. Two Japanese satellite failures and a power outage in Sweden were blamed on the first six storms.

The new flares were accompanied by coronal mass ejections of charged particles that take anywhere from 18 hours to two or three days to reach Earth. These CMEs represent the brunt of the storm unleashed by a flare.

A storm's precise strength, however, cannot be known until about 30 minutes before it strikes and depends on the orientation of its magnetic field. If that field is southward -- opposite the direction of Earth's north-pointing magnetic field -- then the potential is greatest for accelerating the local particles that can then damage satellites and fuel aurora. More aurora

Scientists said the eruptions will generate increased auroras, the colorful Northern and Southern Lights excited by fast-moving particles, beginning midday Monday and into Tuesday and beyond. The lights shine because particles excite gas molecules in the atmosphere.

The chance of severe geomagnetic storming -- the root of auroras -- at middle latitudes is 30 percent Monday and 50 percent Tuesday, according to NOAA's Space Environment Center. The precise extent of the aurora at any moment can't be predicted, but it can be seen in real time with SPACE.com's Aurora Cam.

The fist flare Sunday was generated by Sunspot 486, which was the site of last week's major storms. The one late Sunday came from Sunspot 488, which is huge but has not been a major player until now. Monday's flare also leapt from Sunspot 488.

Both sunspots are about to rotate off the right side of the Sun's face, so their associated CMEs were not aimed squarely at Earth. However, these clouds of hot gas expand as they race into space at up to 5 million mph, so at least some effect at Earth is predicted.

Sunspots are dark, cooler regions of the solar surface. They are areas of pent-up magnetic activity, caps on upwelling matter and energy that can blow at any moment.

No scientist can recall nine X-class flares ever occurring in a 12-day period. More major flares are possible this week, forecasters said.



TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: climatechange; signsandwonders; solarflare; solarflare2003; solarflares; sun; techindex
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To: traumer
From Live's "White, Discussion"

all this discussion
though politically correct
is dead beyond destruction
though it leaves me quite erect
and as the final sunset rolls behind the earth
and the clock is finally dead
i'll look at you, you'll look at me
and we'll cry alot
but this will be what we said
this will be what we said

"look where all this talking got us baby"

41 posted on 11/03/2003 2:20:30 PM PST by GO65
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To: Graybeard58
....and Kerry casually mentions that he's a Viet Nam vet.

And Edwards father worked at the mill before the sun had spots.

42 posted on 11/03/2003 2:20:38 PM PST by Dolphy
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To: Howlin; Ed_NYC; MonroeDNA; widgysoft; Springman; Timesink; dubyaismypresident; Grani; coug97; ...
Status
Status
Just damn.

If you want on the new list, FReepmail me. This IS a high-volume PING list...

43 posted on 11/03/2003 2:23:58 PM PST by mhking
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To: My2Cents
Here is a shot of the outburst, pretty incredible!<>
44 posted on 11/03/2003 2:30:34 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach (Davis needs to get out of Arnoold's Office)
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To: *tech_index; Salo; MizSterious; shadowman99; Sparta; freedom9; martin_fierro; PatriotGames; ...
OFFICIAL BUMP(TOPIC)LIST
45 posted on 11/03/2003 2:31:31 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach (Davis needs to get out of Arnoold's Office)
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To: Tumbleweed_Connection
So - how long until some enviro-idiot tries to find a way to put the blame on GW and mankind as a whole (with main focus on the US)?
46 posted on 11/03/2003 2:35:36 PM PST by TheBattman ("It's a feature, not a bug....")
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To: ItsOurTimeNow
Really, what's the sun's freakin' problem? What'd we do to piss it off like this?

It's not pissed at us. This is nothing. Trust me, you'll know when it's pissed at us. I just hope the manufacturers of our military and commercial satellites have anticipated just how bad a full-fledged temper tantrum can be. Anything worse than that and we'll be to screwed to worry about it.

47 posted on 11/03/2003 2:57:41 PM PST by Orangedog (Soccer-Moms are the biggest threat to your freedoms and the republic !)
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To: My2Cents
"55 degrees currently in Sacramento."

At 5:10PM, it's 82.9 degrees in Mobile. Warm for this time of year.

48 posted on 11/03/2003 3:00:04 PM PST by blam
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To: Orangedog
This was posted on the last flare thread, sorry I don't recall who posted it:

Isaiah 30:26
Moreover the light of the moon shall be as the light of the sun, and the light of the sun shall be sevenfold, as the light of seven days, in the day that the LORD bindeth up the breach of his people, and healeth the stroke of their wound.
49 posted on 11/03/2003 3:00:22 PM PST by null and void
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To: null and void
you find the words "first, last, smallest, largest and ever recorded" especially interesting then: you might want to read and have your say here
50 posted on 11/03/2003 3:05:45 PM PST by Truth666
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To: null and void
Yeah, that would about sums it up. I think the modern version would go something like: "Holy Sh*t!"
51 posted on 11/03/2003 3:08:08 PM PST by Orangedog (Soccer-Moms are the biggest threat to your freedoms and the republic !)
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To: Tumbleweed_Connection
OH....that's the Sun up there.

Muttly was worried. He thought the Moon was on fire.
52 posted on 11/03/2003 3:08:31 PM PST by PoorMuttly ("You cannot be a victim and a hero." - Hon. Clarence Thomas)
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To: Dolphy
And Edwards father worked at the mill before the sun had spots.

And the Wicked Witch of NY held up a NY Slimes in the well of the Senate with the Headline, "What did Bush know and when did he know it?"

Pray for GW and the Truth

53 posted on 11/03/2003 3:15:21 PM PST by bray ( Old Glory Stands for Freedom)
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To: sourcery
How about a pic of one of those nut cases that hang on the side of a volcano wearing Reynolds Wrap...
54 posted on 11/03/2003 3:16:09 PM PST by tubebender (FReeRepublic...How bad have you got it...)
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To: Zuben Elgenubi
58 in Eureka and I just picked a quart of Rasberries and a bucket of Purple Potatoes...
55 posted on 11/03/2003 3:18:54 PM PST by tubebender (FReeRepublic...How bad have you got it...)
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To: Tumbleweed_Connection
The Sun cut loose with three severe flares in less than 24 hours through Monday morning, bringing to nine the number of major eruptions in less than two weeks.

The same thing happened to me after a good sized burrito, washed down with a couple of beers.

56 posted on 11/03/2003 3:20:40 PM PST by GreenHornet
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To: per loin
How far does this X stufff go ? Will it ever reach XXX...
57 posted on 11/03/2003 3:21:15 PM PST by tubebender (FReeRepublic...How bad have you got it...)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
Kind of an Intergallactic Fart?
58 posted on 11/03/2003 3:21:41 PM PST by Delbert
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
Now you got my attention...
59 posted on 11/03/2003 3:24:14 PM PST by tubebender (FReeRepublic...How bad have you got it...)
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To: Tumbleweed_Connection
This is all Bush's fault. If only he had taken global warming seriously and signed off on the Kyotoa treaty none of this would be happening.
60 posted on 11/03/2003 3:34:17 PM PST by Bubba_Leroy
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