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Byron York: How Bush will likely beat his 537-vote ‘landslide’
The Hill ^ | 11/12/03 | Byron York

Posted on 11/11/2003 9:52:00 PM PST by Jean S

There’s been a lot of talk about recent studies showing a decline in the percentage of American voters who identify themselves as Democrats.

Last summer, pollster Mark Penn found that just 32 percent of voters called themselves Democrats, which led Penn to conclude that, at least on the party-ID issue, “the Democratic party is currently in its weakest position since the dawn of the New Deal.”

Now a new study by the Pew Research Center pegs the Democratic number at 31 percent, versus 30 percent who call themselves Republicans.

That’s very bad news — if you’re a Democrat — but what does it actually mean?

Just who are those voters who have switched party affiliation? And perhaps more important, where are they?

As it turns out, many are right where Democrats don’t want them to be — in the swing states that could determine the winner of next year’s presidential election.

In Minnesota, for example, Democrats used to enjoy a 31-26 advantage in party identification. Now, it’s 31-28 in favor of Republicans. In 2000, Bush lost the state by about 58,000 votes out of 2.4 million cast.

Next time around, with more Republicans, he might do better.

In Michigan, Democrats used to enjoy a 33-26 advantage. Now it’s 31-29 in favor of Republicans. In 2000, Bush lost the state by about 217,000 votes out of 4.2 million cast.

In Iowa, Democrats used to enjoy a 32-27 advantage. Now, it’s 34-27 in favor of the Republicans. In 2000, Bush lost the state by about 4,000 votes out of 1.3 million cast.

In Wisconsin, Democrats used to enjoy a 33-29 advantage. Now, it’s 30-29 in favor of the Republicans. In 2000, Bush lost by about 6,000 votes out of 2.6 million cast.

Those are the states that have turned over. In some other states that Bush lost narrowly, Democrats maintain their edge — just less so.

For example, in New Mexico, Democrats used to enjoy a 40-30 advantage. Now, it’s 39-35. In 2000, Bush lost by just 366 votes.

And in the most important swing state of all in 2000, Florida, Democrats used to enjoy a 38-33 advantage. Now, it’s 37-36 in favor of Republicans. That means Bush might be able to build on his 537-vote landslide.

“Republican gains have come across the board, both geographically and demographically,” the Pew report says. “There have been increases in Republican party affiliation in nearly every major voting bloc, except among African-Americans.”

And even though Democrats still have a tiny 31-30 advantage nationwide, that may be of little use next year.

“Because Republicans traditionally turn out to vote in higher numbers than do Democrats, the current division in party affiliation among the public could provide the GOP with a slight electoral advantage,” the Pew report says.

Much of the discussion about the study has emphasized its conclusion that the United States remains deeply divided politically.

Some commentators have suggested that the study says the country is even more deadlocked than it was in 2000. “The red states get redder, [and] the blue states get bluer,” wrote The Washington Post’s E.J. Dionne.

Yet that doesn’t seem to be the case. According to Pew, red states have indeed gotten redder, but blue states have gotten redder, too. Even the bluest of the blues, such as California, are a bit less so than a few years ago.

Why is it happening? Republican National Committee chief Ed Gillespie has an obvious partisan stake in the situation but nevertheless offered a cogent analysis in a recent memo to party leaders.

“As the Democrat party gets smaller, it becomes more liberal, elitist, and angry,” Gillespie wrote, “and as it becomes more liberal, elitist, and angry, it gets smaller.”

Ask Democrats and they’ll tell you the Pew numbers don’t reveal much about anything. The Democrats point out, reasonably, that party affiliation will not matter if more and more people decide not to vote for Bush.

“The number we’ll be watching is the number of people who vote for or against President Bush,” said Democratic National Committee spokesman Tony Welch.

Welch pointed to a recent Marist College poll that found that 44 percent of those surveyed said they definitely plan to vote against Bush next year, while 38 percent said they definitely plan to vote for him.

“Unless you’re a bean counter worried about registration, this is what matters,” says Welch.

Well, yes. But the Marist poll also found Bush beating any Democrat matched against him.

And the trends in party affiliation in the swing states that went to Gore in 2000 suggest that it’s going to be harder for a Democrat to win those states in 2004.

Count all those beans together and they could mean big trouble for the next Democratic nominee.


TOPICS: Editorial; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: byronyork; gwb2004; partyregistration; publicopinion
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1 posted on 11/11/2003 9:52:01 PM PST by Jean S
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To: JeanS
“Because Republicans traditionally turn out to vote in higher numbers than do Democrats, the current division in party affiliation among the public could provide the GOP with a slight electoral advantage,” the Pew report says.

Maybe. But the fastest growing group are the Independents. This Republican became one in '02. The Republicans can no longer count on us to vote for them. They'll either earn our vote or do without it.
2 posted on 11/11/2003 9:58:07 PM PST by ETERNAL WARMING
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To: JeanS
If you are a Democrat and you don't vote, are you still a Democrat?
3 posted on 11/11/2003 9:59:14 PM PST by Only1choice____Freedom (If everything you experienced, believed, lived was a lie, would you want to know the truth?)
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To: JeanS
That's why the Democrats are acting rabid dogs. They're willing to see America destroyed rather than turn over power to the pro-American rightous.
Oh well, the demons always screech the loudest when they're being cast out.

It's good to vote Republican. After all, we have God on our side. The Democrats kicked him out.

4 posted on 11/11/2003 10:01:02 PM PST by concerned about politics ( So it is. It is done.)
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To: concerned about politics
You're a brave man to presume like that. :0)
5 posted on 11/11/2003 10:04:06 PM PST by ETERNAL WARMING
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To: ETERNAL WARMING
You're a brave man to presume like that. :0)

That's not a presumption. Political correctness is a theology based on the tolerance of all sin. That's a fact.

6 posted on 11/11/2003 10:06:27 PM PST by concerned about politics ( So it is. It is done.)
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To: Only1choice____Freedom
If you are a Democrat and you don't vote, are you still a Democrat?
Yes, you're a Democrat but you're not a democrat!
7 posted on 11/11/2003 10:24:30 PM PST by cartoonistx
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To: JeanS
"Count all those beans together and they could mean big trouble for the next Democratic nominee." The ONLY reason Hatellary Rodhamster clinton is not running for the demonRat presidential candidate nomination.
8 posted on 11/11/2003 10:50:27 PM PST by MHGinTN (If you can read this, you've had life support from someone. Promote life support for others.)
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To: MHGinTN
this Hatellary Rodhamster clinton, AKA Hitlerly caligulous? http://www.goofyphotos.com/1/hillary.htm
9 posted on 11/11/2003 11:29:52 PM PST by dglang
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To: All
Never underestimate the ability of the GOP to shoot themselves in the foot.

Even they won't stop the bleeding of pork spending. We are in a war for our lives against a sneaky enemy that is hard to find and stop and they still have to fund the Peanut Festival somewhere.

No priorities at all. And to think the GOP used to stand for stopping this ridiculous spending.

Someone once argued with me that the sucess of the GOP was based on their numbers - the WH, the Senate, the House, Governorships, state legislatures, etc.

Who cares? If, with the majority, they act like Democrats then what's the point? Runaway pork spending. No accountability from Congress who are supposed to have oversight on the departments. Ever increasing spending on the baseline regardless of need or review. Regulations, regulations, regulations non-stop. A totally ridiculous prescription drug program with NO free market reform and usage as we cover rich seniors and play with the idea of drug reimportation (the stupidest idea since Social Security). Backing down on school vouchers to, for some strange reason, suck up to Ted Kennedy. Backing down on privatizing (eliminating is the best term, the Dems have that right...I want it eliminated since it's a rip off and a pyramid scheme times ten) Social Security and Medicare.

If this is what the GOP in power means, I don't want any part of it. Time to start a Conservative Party.
10 posted on 11/11/2003 11:39:42 PM PST by Fledermaus (I'm a conservative...not necessarily a Republican.)
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To: Only1choice____Freedom
If you are a Democrat and you don't vote, are you still a Democrat?

Only if you vote twice the next time.

11 posted on 11/11/2003 11:56:04 PM PST by Dr. Eckleburg (There are very few shades of gray.)
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To: JeanS
Bookmark.
12 posted on 11/11/2003 11:56:32 PM PST by KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle ("The Clintons have damaged our country. They have done it together, in unison." -- Peggy Noonan)
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To: JeanS
“As the Democrat party gets smaller, it becomes more liberal, elitist, and angry,” Gillespie wrote, “and as it becomes more liberal, elitist, and angry, it gets smaller.”

Happily true. I call it "taking their masks off".

13 posted on 11/12/2003 12:01:15 AM PST by First Amendment
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To: rintense; MJY1288; RedBloodedAmerican; twyn1; kitkat; justshe; ladyinred; lonestar; ...
Ping A Ling

“As the Democrat party gets smaller, it becomes more liberal, elitist, and angry,” Gillespie wrote, “and as it becomes more liberal, elitist, and angry, it gets smaller.”

14 posted on 11/12/2003 12:09:13 AM PST by Mo1
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To: ETERNAL WARMING
In politics, especially in a general election, you are either with us, or against us. There is no middle! Those who threaten to sit on the sidelines because their "pet issue" is not being addressed to their satisfaction, are in my opinion, are on the side of the enemy.

That all being said, Bush will blowout the opposition in 04. People like you will be completely irrelevant to the outcome.
15 posted on 11/12/2003 3:48:39 AM PST by AmericaUnited
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To: JeanS
There’s been a lot of talk about recent studies showing a decline in the percentage of American voters who identify themselves as Democrats.

True. A lot of people don't realize but most of the Hispanic population is actually conservative for the most part politically. I know a lot of Colombians and Venzuelans and most of them tend toward the conservative. Actually FEW of the immigrants are of the extreme left. That sort of activism is mostly limited to a relatively few of the Aztlan activists. However, even most Mexican Americans tend toward the conservative. The MOST conservative person I ever knew (he made me look like a liberal) was a Mexican-American. BTW, this wasn't a white Mexican-American. This guy had mostly Indian blood.

When you are talking about Hispanics who are Protestants (a growing number), then virtually ALL of them are conservative. However, overall most of the Hispanic folks tend towards the conservative side of the spectrum.

16 posted on 11/12/2003 3:56:04 AM PST by PJ-Comix (Legalize Caffeine NOW!!!)
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To: JeanS
“There have been increases in Republican party affiliation in nearly every major voting bloc, except among African-Americans.”

Does this include African-Caribbean? The folks from Jamaica, Bahamas, and the other islands tend to be much more conservative than African-Americans. BTW, here in Florida the amazing thing is that probably a majority of black college students are from the Caribbean/Bahamas. The percentage of such female students is much higher. BTW, I am including not only students born in those areas but also students born here but whose parents/grandparents came from those islands. This is just an educated guess, but based on my observations, I estimate that the number of female black college students of Caribbean/Bahamian background in South Florida is somewhere around 75% of the total female black students.

17 posted on 11/12/2003 4:04:00 AM PST by PJ-Comix (Legalize Caffeine NOW!!!)
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To: AmericaUnited
Those who threaten to sit on the sidelines because their "pet issue" is not being addressed to their satisfaction, are in my opinion, are on the side of the enemy.

I strongly support Bush on most issues but I am sitting out the 2004 election because I don't think Bush has properly addressed the issue of pet cat registration. I oppose efforts to register cats and Bush has been silent on this issue.

18 posted on 11/12/2003 4:08:08 AM PST by PJ-Comix (Legalize Caffeine NOW!!!)
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To: Mo1
Thanks for the ping. Very interesting article.

And about Republicans "shooting themselves in the foot" - yes, that can happen. But I think if we stay focused, maintain our cool exterior and interior passion, we can win.

One of the things that made Rush so successful was just not his conservative ideas - it was also his persistence and positive attitude.

Never get discouraged, stay on the high road, put out your ideas, be strong on America - that would be my stategery.

19 posted on 11/12/2003 5:41:31 AM PST by gramho12
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To: Only1choice____Freedom
If you are dead, and you do vote, you most definitely are a Democrat.
20 posted on 11/12/2003 5:47:22 AM PST by auboy (Liberals believe in free speech… theirs not yours.)
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