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The Wilder Effect - Why Bobby Jindal lost in Louisiana, despite being ahead in the polls.
Weekly Standard ^ | 11/17/03 | FredBarnes

Posted on 11/18/2003 8:40:56 AM PST by Tumbleweed_Connection

BOBBY JINDAL'S DEFEAT in the Louisiana governor's race Saturday is a bigger loss for Republicans than just an office they've held for eight years. For now, it denies the party an impressive new national figure, a 32-year-old Indian-American who's destined to be a political star sometime--but not yet.

Why did Jindal lose after leading his Democratic opponent, Kathleen Blanco, in statewide polls in the weeks before the election? In a word, race. What occurred was the "Wilder effect," named after the black Virginia governor elected in 1989. Wilder, a Democrat, polled well, then won narrowly. Many white voters, it turned out, said they intended to vote for a black candidate when they really didn't. Questioned by pollsters, they were leery of being seen as racially prejudiced.

Jindal's advisers worried that he might lose the "Bubba vote," rural whites unwilling to vote for a black candidate or even a dark-skinned Indian-American. The Jindal camp's fears were realized. A Republican normally needs two-thirds of the white vote to win in Louisiana to compensate for losing nearly all of the black vote. But Jindal got only 60 percent of whites, according to an analysis by GCR & Associates Inc., a political consulting firm. Its findings were reported in the New Orleans Times-Picayune.

Had Jindal fared better among blacks, he might have won despite losing white votes. But he got only 9 percent of blacks, this after mounting a highly-publicized effort to attract black voters. Jindal was endorsed by several black political organizations, a former associate of Rev. Martin Luther King Jr., and New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin, who is black. Nonetheless, he did only slightly better among blacks than Republicans normally do.

Jindal, whose parents moved to Baton Rouge from India shortly before he was born, won 70 percent of the white vote in the New Orleans area. But outside that urban hub in the more rural and poorer parts of the state, only 48 percent of whites voted for Jindal, according to the GCR analysis.

Blanco's victory was hailed by Democrats, and for good reason. It broke the Republican winning streak in governor's contests this year. (One of those new Republican governors, Arnold Schwarzenegger, is being sworn in today in California.) Republicans also won in Kentucky and Mississippi, seats that had also been held by Democrats. In Louisiana, Republican Gov. Mike Forster is stepping down after two terms. His successor, Blanco, is a conservative Democrat opposed to abortion and tax increases and closer philosophically to Democratic Sen. Zell Miller of Georgia than to most national Democrats.

Jindal, a Brown University graduate and Rhodes Scholar with a dazzling résumé, ran a positive campaign, calling himself a "problem solver." When Blanco ran a TV commercial attacking his tenure as head of Louisiana's hospitals, he didn't respond directly to the charges, though he criticized her for going negative. Some Republican strategists thought his campaign was simply too nice for the rough and tumble of Louisiana politics, especially when he left serious charges unrefuted.

Had he won, Jindal would surely have emerged as a national spokesman for the Republican party. For one thing, he is a policy wonk who talks knowledgeably about health care, Medicare reform, and education. For another, he would add to the ethnic diversity of Republican leaders. But his time has not yet come.



TOPICS: Editorial; Politics/Elections; US: Louisiana
KEYWORDS: 2003; bobbyjindal; bubbavote; dougwilder; fredbarnes; jindal
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1 posted on 11/18/2003 8:40:58 AM PST by Tumbleweed_Connection
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To: biblewonk
"Boy, da way Glenn Miller played..."

This is why the rumored Condolezza Rice VP candidacy would be a net loss, especially in the Old South (nevermind the fact that she's also a woman).

2 posted on 11/18/2003 8:45:49 AM PST by newgeezer (Just my opinion, of course. Your mileage may vary. You have the right to be wrong.)
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To: newgeezer
I certainly wouldn't want Condi a step away from the Presidency.
3 posted on 11/18/2003 8:50:55 AM PST by Huck
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Comment #4 Removed by Moderator

To: Huck
I certainly wouldn't want Condi a step away from the Presidency.

Why not?

5 posted on 11/18/2003 9:01:12 AM PST by CatoRenasci (Ceterum Censeo [Gallia][Germania][Arabia] Esse Delendam --- Select One or More as needed)
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To: All
I live in La. and have voted Republican all my life (since 1980) but this was the first election in which I did not vote. Neither Blanco nor Jindal interested me enough. Jindal had too much the resume of a born overachieving politico (like Clinton). Blanco is a bureaucrat too but she seems to be scandal-free (a huge plus) and they were both pretty conservative when you boiled it all down so I did'nt care which of them were elected as I don't think either of them would have hurt our state.

6 posted on 11/18/2003 9:06:07 AM PST by dg62
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To: CatoRenasci
Because I wouldn't want her as President. She isn't even close to being presidential material.
7 posted on 11/18/2003 9:06:48 AM PST by Huck
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To: dg62
Not much of an excuse not to vote. But of course that's your prerogative.
8 posted on 11/18/2003 9:10:07 AM PST by Coop (God bless our troops!)
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To: dg62
Your reasons for not voting are the same we used when we sat out the last election, but with an opposite twist. Erskine Bowles was a Clinton lapdog (enough said), and Liddy Dole was a System Republican who we figured would turn her back on us in a second (which she did). We figured we'd lose either way (which we have).
Unless Hillary enters the next race, we're sitting out the next one, too. W has been a disaster for North Carolina (except in the minds of bots), and any Democrat will only continue the same policies, just faster and harder (the latest expansion of Medicaire, which WE are going to have to pay for, comes immediately to mind).

And for the record, the Mrs. and I supported Alan Keyes.
9 posted on 11/18/2003 9:18:33 AM PST by warchild9
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To: All
If you don't vote, you lose your "b*tching rights" .

Go ahead. Don't vote. Just don't whine to me if you hate how things turn out.

Besides, even if you can't find someone to vote FOR, there is ALWAYS someone you can vote AGAINST!

Tia

10 posted on 11/18/2003 9:30:16 AM PST by tiamat ("Just a Bronze-Age Gal, Trapped in a Techno World!")
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To: Tumbleweed_Connection
The sooner he moves to a state willing to elect him, the better for the country. After Blanco for 8 years, LA will elect Mitch Landrieu for 8 years. The state will continue to be a Democrat-conrolled trash pile like Arkansas-- and I'm an Arkansan.
11 posted on 11/18/2003 9:30:16 AM PST by GraniteStateConservative ("We happy because when we switch on the TV you never see Saddam Hussein. That's a big happy.")
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To: Libertybelle321
I think Jindal knew he couldn't get those xenophobic and racist voters who fear a golden boy candidate so much smarter than they are. So, he tried to pick up minority voters to compensate.
12 posted on 11/18/2003 9:32:29 AM PST by GraniteStateConservative ("We happy because when we switch on the TV you never see Saddam Hussein. That's a big happy.")
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To: Huck; biblewonk
I certainly wouldn't want Condi a step away from the Presidency.

Same here. Unfortunately, some racists (some of them race baiters) automatically assume or hope it's due to her race.

13 posted on 11/18/2003 9:51:20 AM PST by newgeezer (Keyes '96, '00)
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To: dg62
Give me a break. Conservatives are constantly being tarred as "morons" by the lib media. We finally get a true blue conservative who is unassailably brilliant. He's poised to be a national star and a symbol of our color-blind philosophy--and you can't be bothered to cast a vote for him versus a dopey, medi-scaring, machine Democrat. Does he look to much like one a them 7-11 ownin' Hindoos? Now that really is stupid. Reminds me of blacks who think that getting good grades is "acting white." Being smart doesn't automatically make you a Clintoon.
14 posted on 11/18/2003 10:04:41 AM PST by Callahan
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To: tiamat
I was'nt b!tching. I just responded about why I felt apathetic about this election. I have always voted since I was 18, so you can bet my apathy was significant enough to give my choice much thought. The older I get, the more I know what I am looking for in a candidate. I did'nt see that choice in this election.
15 posted on 11/18/2003 10:51:22 AM PST by dg62
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To: GraniteStateConservative
The outgoing La. Gov. Foster is a Republican. He has been a big let down to many people. The state is probably slightly to somewhat worse off than it was 8 years ago when he took office (not that it's all his fault). I have voted many times for Republicans just because they were Republican only to be let down.
16 posted on 11/18/2003 10:54:10 AM PST by dg62
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To: dg62
I didn't say you were b*tching.

I said people who do not vote give up their right to complain later.

FReegards,

Tia

17 posted on 11/18/2003 10:54:52 AM PST by tiamat ("Just a Bronze-Age Gal, Trapped in a Techno World!")
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To: GraniteStateConservative
Might as well rename the Bayou state, Landrieuana.
18 posted on 11/18/2003 11:00:27 AM PST by Kuksool
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To: warchild9
I, too, was a Keyes supporter. I have decided he does NOT have the temperment to be a Congressman let alone a President....and I agree with abot 99% of what he says. He is ALWAYS angry and a very hot temper that i USED to see as passion. He should be a Deacon.
19 posted on 11/18/2003 11:06:22 AM PST by Ann Archy
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To: Callahan
Nothing wrong with being smart, or a rising star. I just don't like the that combination in a politician, especially a young one.

The great thing about your peers running in elections is that you can judge them on your experience with your own peers. I never did like the politico type...the kind that runs for everything, lives and breathes civic activity but has never had a real job(non political), does'nt have a real life, you know the type. Jindal fits that category to the tee. In my experience with this type, it's all hype to promote the political career, not the job to be done.

20 posted on 11/18/2003 11:11:24 AM PST by dg62
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To: Tumbleweed_Connection
So the dumbassed crackers let us down again, what a surprise.
21 posted on 11/18/2003 11:16:26 AM PST by justshutupandtakeit (America's Enemies foreign and domestic agree: Bush must be destroyed.)
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To: Tumbleweed_Connection
First rule of American public debate: It's always safe to bash whitey. (Esp. Southern whitey).

Jindal led the primaries and got 60% of the white vote but it's never enough for the hate-spewing genocidal left and their "conservative" collaborators.

I wonder if Fred Barnes will ever write a article about the "LeRoy vote".

22 posted on 11/18/2003 11:22:54 AM PST by jordan8
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To: Tumbleweed_Connection
I don't think his dark skin was as much a problem as he was perceived by some to be a foreigner....a foreigner from the middle east at that. As far as the black vote goes, we can forget that. The majority of blacks are not going to vote for a Republican no matter what color he is.
23 posted on 11/18/2003 11:28:18 AM PST by Ima Lurker
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To: dg62
...they were both pretty conservative when you boiled it all down

That's a good point, both were Catholic in a state where that is heavily important, and both were pro-life, at least nominally. We don't have to worry about Blank-o being given a major speaking role at the Rat convention, they absolutely abhor anyone who is not pro-abortion.

Here's another thing: Just four years ago, Bobby Jindal was exactly half of Blanko's age. People aren't extremely comfortable having the top executive office in their state being considered an entry-level government position. Sure, there is Arnold, but he was able to exploit a unique set of circumstances. And he has a track record of success in other endeavors, plus over 35 years of living life as an adult, more than Bobby's been breathing on this planet.

All in all, it was amazing that he even came this close, given all the things he had going against him. In about eight or twelve years, Louisiana will be ready for Bobby, and he'll be even more ready for them. He has a lot of time to analyze what went wrong, and being the intelligent person he is, he'll figure out how to overcome all of them. I know that he's proud of himself for not going negative, it would be worse to win an election, yet lose yourself in the process.

24 posted on 11/18/2003 11:47:39 AM PST by hunter112
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To: Tumbleweed_Connection
This is why it has and will for a long time to come continue to be a waste of effort for Republicans to court the Black vote.

I have good Black friends that in every respect, save party affiliation and voting, hold the same social values and opinions as conservative Republicans. Yet, year after year, they simply cannot bring themselves to vote for a Republican over a Democrate.

There are some foundational notions steeped in Black culture and history that explain such stark inconsistency. Notions to which Blacks desperately cling and which from a cultural perspective provide a sense of understanding, identity and emotional security. Notions which current Black leaders have every reason to continue to cultivate.

One notion Blacks cling cling to is the belief that they have only made progress as a race when they have successfully hung together as a group...no matter what. Voting Repulican when the majority of the Black vote is expected to vote Democrate is understood as selling out your race.

Second, Blacks tend to only trust leaders they see as being one of their own. To be seen as such, a leader cannot be too different. So, Republicans can put forward all the strong independent self made Black Republicans condidates they want, such as Rice and others, and they will not be viewed by Blacks as one of their own and will therefore make little real difference in terms of changing Black perspectives.

You see exhisting Blacks leaders have a very useful labels for Republican alternatives. One is that he or she is an "Uncle Tom"....which is code for House slave. Others are that they are an up-ity N????r or not black enough. Such a labels quickly and effectively communicate to Black voters that such examples are from the outside, too different and therefore paint them as some sort of undermining challenge to Black indentity and security.

Unfortunately this sort of group loyalty means Blacks not only tend to overly exhalt "their" leaders, they also tend to not hold "their" leaders accountable. Being one of their own gives "their" leaders a pass on all kinds of gaffs and faults which would otherwise disqualify from leadership. Even worse...such exhaltation apparently even extends even to the point where it is not even a requirement Black voters agree with "their" leaders in order for them to vote how they are told to vote.

The only explanation that can be offered by my Black friends when confronted with such stark contaditions is for them to tell me "well, you would have to be Black to understand."

Years ago I finally came to accept this explanation and no longer resist it. Folks it is what it is and we must realize change is nearly futile when the victims themselves have become corrupt. Change will occur only from within the Black community and only from "their" leaders. From what I can tell, that day is a long way off.

25 posted on 11/18/2003 11:49:55 AM PST by kimoajax
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To: dg62
Yes, I know Foster is a Republican. So is Mike Huckabee. The two states are hopelessy Democrat cesspools, though.
26 posted on 11/18/2003 11:59:21 AM PST by GraniteStateConservative ("We happy because when we switch on the TV you never see Saddam Hussein. That's a big happy.")
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To: Ann Archy
Alan Keyes reminds me of my daddy, except that he's black. My father also is chronically angry--but I'm convinced that he'd also resist becoming a puppet as is W. Add to that his uncompromising pro-life stance, and he's someone I can support, win or not.
Does he have the temperament to be president? Probably not. It's a conscience thing on my part.
27 posted on 11/18/2003 12:15:59 PM PST by warchild9
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To: GraniteStateConservative
"Yes, I know Foster is a Republican. So is Mike Huckabee. The two states are hopelessy Democrat cesspools, though."

Nonsense. Defeatists once said that same sort of thing about Alabama and Georgia, neither of which could be called bastions for Democrats any longer.

28 posted on 11/18/2003 12:25:16 PM PST by Southack (Media bias means that Castro won't be punished for Cuban war crimes against Black Angolans in Africa)
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To: Ann Archy
I apologize for my twisted syntax; I'm typing this at work.
You know what I meant, hm?
29 posted on 11/18/2003 12:30:26 PM PST by warchild9
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To: Ima Lurker
Someone should point out that the majority of Indians here in the Triangleo--those who are citizens and not H-1B's--are Republicans. They're actually very conservative people, for the most part.
30 posted on 11/18/2003 12:32:25 PM PST by warchild9
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To: dg62

On the big issues such as abortion, guns and even race, Blanco did little to alienate social conservatives. Between a Democrat who is socially conservative(Ralph Hall) and a Republican who is socially conservative but a neo lliberal on economics such as Dick Armey, I would vote for the Democrat no questions asked.
31 posted on 11/18/2003 12:39:45 PM PST by JNB
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To: Tumbleweed_Connection
I wanted Bobby Jindal to win - I really did. I was rooting for him right to the end. But, deep down inside, we all knew that his ethnicity was a potential drag on his electability in the Deep South. I think this should serve as a caution to the Republican Party when it ponders running unconventional (i.e., not a white man) candidates in the future, especially in the South. It's okay under certain circumstances, but, as a rule, white men do tend to fair the best for the GOP.

Consider all the great victories lately: California, Mississippi, Kentucky, the GOP's Senate sweep in 2002, etc, etc. The GOP needs to remember where its bread is buttered. Like I said, there are some exceptions, but let's be careful before we get too excited about the prospects of unconventional candidates in the future.
32 posted on 11/18/2003 12:44:35 PM PST by No Dems 2004
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To: dg62
Blanco is as conservative as Mary Landrieu, who is a flaming feminist/socialist.
33 posted on 11/18/2003 12:46:38 PM PST by Clemenza (East side, West side, all around the town. Tripping the light fantastic on the sidewalks of New York)
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To: Callahan

Conservatism on paper might be colorblind, but do not begin to think working class social conservatives vote for Republicans based on the entire package. The GOP has worked itself into t he majority by picking orff voters whose main issues are guns, abortion and race, thats it, and not only i n the South it also has applied in the rural/small city Midwest and mountain West as well. Gov. Elect Blanco took those 3 issues off the table, and it showed with Jindal losing the rural white vote, somthing that Susie Terrell did not even manage to do last year.
34 posted on 11/18/2003 12:48:03 PM PST by JNB
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To: Huck
[Rice] isn't even close to being presidential material.

What makes you say that?

35 posted on 11/18/2003 12:48:26 PM PST by presidio9 (Islam is as Islam does)
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To: kimoajax; rdb3; mhking; Trueblackman; BlkConserv; Howlin; Lazamataz; Nick Danger; section9; ...
"The only explanation that can be offered by my Black friends when confronted with such stark contaditions is for them to tell me "well, you would have to be Black to understand."

In all fairness, Republicans haven't been in the trenches fighting side by side with Blacks over modern issues...at least, that's the perception that the *media* gives. Certainly the news media harps on Republican opposition to Affirmative Action.

But that's the past.

Right now Republicans have just started a new advertising campaign. We're calling private school choice vouchers "equal opportunity scholarships."

And you know what, we are going to get these scholarships passed into law for the city of Washington, D.C.

And then we are going to go to inner-city after inner-city, touting the success of those scholarships, all while leading the charge for more and more of them.

Faced with dismal, losing, failing public schools in their own inner-cities, Blacks are going to go for this Republican program in a big way...much to the detriment of the powerful teachers' unions and entrenched Democratic Party politicians (who rely on their public school teachers for much of their activism and recruitment for/from their own benches).

But there is something else going on here. What Blacks (not individuals, but en masse) have always needed is proof that the Republican Party officially cared about them on a big issue crucial to their needs. Once a big issue like vouchers (ooops, scholarships) gets momentum, Blacks en masse are going to recognize that Republicans also share their values. We're all pro-life. We're all pro-military. We're all pro-religion. Suddenly faith-based charity initiatives take on an entirely new dimension.

And once this realization sets in at a cultural level, it will be *Democrats* who have to explain why Blacks should vote for pro-choice candidates, anti-military candidates, and even for anti-religious candidates (e.g. no school prayer, no 10 Commandments).

This is doubly true for Blacks in the South, as the Democrats seem to be abandoning this entire region.

Of course, some Democratic Party issues are going to still play well to some Blacks, just as they do to lily white crackers. Some people simply favor the Kyoto Global Warming nonsense, gun control, and abortion.

But I don't see those sorts of issues playing very well on the street. I don't see Jackie Sixpack being swayed for those issues.

Of course, we aren't to that point yet. There has to be a *major* issue on which Democrats are against and Republicans disagree, and that Blacks favor. Only such a *major* issue can cause a fundmental cultural reassesment of loyalties, much as White Southern voters faced as they left the Democratic Party in droves decades ago. Until that point was reached, White Southern voters would hold their noses and vote for liberal Democratic Party Yankees, if they had to, rather than for a dreaded "Republican".

But just as White Southern voters changed from (D) to (R), so too can Blacks, if only Republicans will fight in the trenches *and* come up with a major Black issue that the Democrats can't support (union votes, gay votes, enviro-votes, abortion votes, there are several angles).

36 posted on 11/18/2003 12:52:06 PM PST by Southack (Media bias means that Castro won't be punished for Cuban war crimes against Black Angolans in Africa)
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To: Libertybelle321

To see who has been sucessful in the south for the GOP, look at the profile of sucessful statewide canidates. In AL, GA and now MS, the sucessful canidates have been white conservative men from rural areas. Even in KY, Gov elect Fletcher talked about his Kentucky roots and played the populist role as much as someone who is a doctor could. Liddy Dole was a horible campiagner but her name ID and Bush coat tails is what brought her though, and in South Carolina, Gov Stanford who is not from a rural area nor has South Carolina roots did have experience holding a elected position, and the SC GOP is probably the strongest in the south that got him to defeat a incumbent. The GOP needs to look at electoral reality. Even in TX, Gov Perry origianlly elected as a Democrat in the state legislature from a rural county.
37 posted on 11/18/2003 12:53:23 PM PST by JNB
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To: Huck
Why wouldn't you want Condi Rice as president?
38 posted on 11/18/2003 12:53:42 PM PST by cyborg (liberals are the tapeworms in the intestine of America)
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To: Libertybelle321
Jindal should have been courting the white vote instead of wasting his time.

I couldn't disagree more. I think Republicans candidates need to do more to try to reach black voters. Jindal made the effort and was able to pull historical double digits from New Orleans black voters.

39 posted on 11/18/2003 12:54:02 PM PST by Mudbug
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To: Southack
"Crackers?" Let's get it clear that refers to Deep-South mule drivers, and not to Sons of Dixie like yours truly.

Crackers! Indeed!
40 posted on 11/18/2003 12:56:16 PM PST by warchild9
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To: Clemenza
While these may not be her real views, her track record on social issues so far, albiet as Lt Gov, there is not much of anything to get a record on, is as a conservative. The NRA was neutral in this election, and so were right to life organisations. Supposedly Blanco has even attended pro life events. She even has been on record as opposing affirmative action as well.

Again, now that she has real power, she may rapidly change the views she run on, much like many other Democrats have done, but for a white working class conservative, was there really anything to gain, knowing they mostly vote on social issues, by chosing Jindal over Blanco?
41 posted on 11/18/2003 12:57:17 PM PST by JNB
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Comment #42 Removed by Moderator

To: newgeezer
"Songs that made the Hit Parade!"

That's why we have to fear a Hillary! candidacy.

43 posted on 11/18/2003 1:07:51 PM PST by gridlock (Countdown to Hillary!: ONE day... Hillary! will announce for President TOMORROW, Weds. Nov 19, 2003)
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To: JNB
She will change so fast it will give you whiplash. As funny sidenote as backgound perhaps....my wife and I at one time a number of years back sat next to Sheila Jackson Lee at a national Chrisitian Coalition conference at the Hilton in DC and my wife and her talked at length about their mutual discust over the Clintons. All this was before she ran for office. The post election change was inlightening to say the least.
44 posted on 11/18/2003 1:10:32 PM PST by kimoajax
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To: kimoajax
Sad that this si expected from Democrats, but then again, Sheila Jackson Lee fell in line with the Black Caucus. If anything, Gov elect Blanco no doubt sees that it was the rural white vote that won her the election, unlike both of Landreaus victories, and that may possibly temper a potential lurch to the left.
45 posted on 11/18/2003 1:13:43 PM PST by JNB
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To: Southack
You make some great points with which I agree.

Your comments have also stimulated some new thoughts for me related to our form of government. Thoughts about why perhaps direct voter referendums and ballot measures which in essence work around our legislators, in the long run tend to undermine our Republican form of government....by giving many voters the sense that they can have their cake and eat it too....which explains why many voters (not just Black) vote Democrate but also vote in favor of the most socially conservative ballot measures you could imagine.
46 posted on 11/18/2003 1:25:47 PM PST by kimoajax
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To: JNB
Good point.
47 posted on 11/18/2003 1:42:26 PM PST by Clemenza (East side, West side, all around the town. Tripping the light fantastic on the sidewalks of New York)
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To: kimoajax; Southack
All ballot initiative brought us when we lived in Florida is higher educational expenditures and a "super train" that no one will ride once completed. Thankfully, the conservative legislature down there has stalled the latter.

Ballot initiatives=Rule by the Sheeple

48 posted on 11/18/2003 1:44:13 PM PST by Clemenza (East side, West side, all around the town. Tripping the light fantastic on the sidewalks of New York)
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To: deport
The Times Picayune article that was referenced by Barnes...... Adding for archival purposes

Support among white voters helped Blanco turn tide

Jindal polled better than normal among state's black voters

Sunday November 16, 2003

By Laura Maggi and Jeffrey Meitrodt
Staff writers

Kathleen Blanco's remarkable victory Saturday was propelled by her ability to capture more white voters than Democrats typically can count on in statewide races against Republicans.

Republican Bobby Jindal's bold push to win over African-American voters with high-profile endorsements succeeded to a point: He got 9 percent of the black vote, almost twice what most Republicans typically get in the state.

But as much attention as that garnered, a key to Blanco's victory was the white vote, of which she won 40 percent, according to an analysis of returns in Louisiana's 4,143 precincts by GCR & Associates Inc., a political consulting firm in New Orleans.

In the weeks leading up to Saturday's vote, Jindal was considered the front-runner because he led in some polls, even as others showed the race close.

After the primary, during which she captured 18 percent of the vote to Jindal's 33 percent, Blanco had a tough time pulling together the disparate Democratic factions.

Blanco's best hope seemed to be energizing the Democratic base of African-Americans to go to the polls. Historically, African-Americans vote less regularly than white voters, and Democrats were concerned that turnout would decline in the runoff since Blanco ran third among African-American voters in the Oct. 4 primary.

In the primary, only 45 percent of the state's black voters turned out, according to Greg Rigamer of GCR. Saturday, that rate climbed to 46 percent.

White vote was unchanged at 54 percent, Rigamer said.

In an unusual twist for most Democratic statewide candidates, Blanco could not take for granted that she would receive the overwhelming number of those votes. Early in the runoff, Jindal made an effort to woo black voters from their traditional role as stalwart members of the Democratic camp, winning endorsements from a handful of black leaders, including New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin.

In the end, Blanco won 91 percent support among black voters.

Significantly, her support among black voters in the New Orleans area was slightly smaller at 89 percent, perhaps because of the Nagin endorsement.

But Jindal's bigger problem, it turned out, was among white voters. Republicans typically need about two-thirds of the white vote in order to succeed in a statewide race, said Elliot Stonecipher, a political analyst based in Shreveport.

Jindal achieved that in the New Orleans area, winning 70 percent of white voters, Rigamer said. But in the rest of the state, he trailed Blanco among white voters, getting only 48 percent.

The Times-Picayune paid Rigamer for his analysis. A portion of the firm's work is conducted for politicians, and in this race Rigamer worked for Blanco.



49 posted on 11/18/2003 1:44:18 PM PST by deport
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To: Tumbleweed_Connection
I guess we have to draw the "OUTSOURCING" line somewhere!!
50 posted on 11/18/2003 1:58:38 PM PST by Lael (Bush to Middle Class: Send your kids to DIE in Iraq while I send your LIVELIHOODS to INDIA!)
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