Posted on 12/09/2003 10:51:25 AM PST by Pubbie
As mayoral candidates Gavin Newsom and Matt Gonzalez crisscrossed The City from West Portal to Chinatown in a final weekend sprint to Election Day, a new KPIX-5 poll released Friday shows the race locked in a dead heat.
The poll, conducted by SurveyUSA, showed Gonzalez with 50 percent ofthe voters identified as "certain" and Gavin Newsom with 48 percent.
The automated poll, taken between Dec. 2-4, marks a slight bump upwards for Newsom, who was shown to be trailing by 7 percentage points in a poll by the same company released on Nov. 25.
The survey also shows that the district attorney's race has tightened up, with incumbent Terence Hallinan narrowing challenger Kamala Harris' lead from 12 percentage points to 5 points among "certain" voters.
The mayoral results were based on responses from 534 registered voters who described themselves as "certain to vote" in the Dec. 9 runoff election, and has a 4.3 percent margin of error.
The DA poll was based on responses from 505 voters and has a 4.5 percent margin of error.
Both polls canvassed 1,000 registered voters and filtered out 47 percent who were not defined as definite voters.
Gonzalez spokesman Ross Mirkarimi said the campaign is not making too much of the numbers.
"We're still very encouraged, we take all polls in stride," he said.
"Our aim is to get our voters out between now and Election Day and try to offset the huge machine that Gavin Newsom is importing to try to steal this election."
Newsom campaign manager John Shanley took issue with the automated methodology the nationwide pollster uses, which he said does not identify definite registered voters. But he said that the slight erosion of Gonzalez support was consistent with his analysis.
"I think to some extent the Gonzalez bubble is bursting, the flavor of the moment is getting old," said Newsom spokesman John Shanley.
"(Supervisor) Tom Ammiano experienced a similar thing four years ago against (Mayor) Willie Brown. There is the buzz and excitement when you make the runoff and it's started to fizzle."
Joe Shipman, director of election polling at SurveyUSA, said the race is shaping up into a contest between younger and older voters. The poll showed that likely voters between the ages of 18 to 35 favor Gonzalez by a 2-to-1 ratio, while voters 55 and older are flocking to Newsom by a 2-to-1 ratio.
"The age gap is really striking. Gonzalez is getting younger people excited in politics, many for the first time," Shipman said. "Newsom, who is a young man himself, needs to figure out why he is not appealing to those voters."
Shipman said he doesn't regard Newsom's slight increase as "much of a shift," but said he may have received a bounce by recent support from former vice president Al Gore, Democratic Party Leader Nancy Pelosi and U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein, all powerful Democrats who have stumped for Newsom this week.
While Newsom is a Democrat, Gonzalez is a member of the Green Party.
"I think Newsom has been working hard -- the heavy hitters have been coming out for him," Shipman said.
Pathetic, ain't it?
Even if it hurts the Dems, just think how hard it will be for businessowners and common-sense thinking people to live good productive lives, and provide jobs which help convert the socialist masses, under Green rule.
Well said.
VOTE GREEN!
Yeah, he'll double the population...once word gets out that the new Communist at City Hall is handing out more free money than ever.
In this particular case, you couldn't be more wrong. You guys are simply not thinking long term enough, and missing a golden opportunity. You need to ask yourself "why am I a Conservative?"
It's because right is right. Its not a bumper sticker, or a really cool paper mache puppet that some hippie marches with. Conservatism isn't right because Rush says so, or Dubya, or even Reagan. Its not because Hannity can drone on ad hominem more than his opponent and claim victory. Conservatism is right because time and again it proves out, while Liberalism does not. There's no contest. Its not like there are 2 sides to this; they are wrong and its patently obvious.
Now moderate liberalism is the exception, that is the danger, not the greens, not ever. Like Clinton, its hard to prove to someone economically what a screw up he was because we did alright in the 90s. We can speak of the GOP House being the cause, the dot com bubble, whatever, its still easy for a partisan liberal to say the economy was good. That's because Clinton, for as much frothing at the mouth as there is on here from the hyper partisans wasn't THAT liberal.
Greens are, greens are true believers, and they've never gotten a chance to demonstrate their Leadership til now. I'd say God Bless em, but they hate God.
You 2 need alittle more patience, more long term thinking, and more backbone. Let them try. What better city than San Fran to take to the 10th level of hell.
More importantly than the Green and liberalism getting discredited...(further)this is an outflanking of the Demo's on their Left that they have worried about for over a generation...(since McGovern)and it couldn't possibly come at a worse time for them with their loss of power and all their energy coming from hatefilled Leftist. A Green holding a major city's mayorship? Why this guy will be able to rally the Left and push the Demo's FARTHER off their cliff to maintain the college kids' passion.
And he'll fail. Bad. Gonzo's failure will be blamed entirely on Liberalism, and guess who's going to do it? Our friends' in the media will on the Democrates behalf will help us do it. They will oppose this guy and make him fail more than the GOP could ever hope to. You should understand after all these years Democrates are meaner.
Can you imagine if the Losertarians started getting 20% instead of 2% every election? Why the GOP wouldn't win another office. That is the very real potential here in SF. Its a Godsend, it truely is. You are seeing this as a rise of the Left, but you forget that they WILL fail, its really the beginning of the end of the liberal Democratic Party.
God Bless America.
I must always denounce that which I know to be wrong, and the Green Party is pure evil.
I think very long term, thank you very much.
How has the rise and failure of the Greens positively affected Germany? What was once an ally is now full of spoiled snot-nosed babies.
How has the rise and failure of the left positively affected San Francisco as it stands? It's already full of leftists, and this has greatly harmed a beautiful city - probably the most visually stunning city in this country, if not the world.
What we'll end up with is a major bulkhead on U.S. soil for Greens world-wide. It will be their entry point into the U.S. political system. Oh joy.
You talk about long term thinking - you sound like Diarmait, the off-put 12th century Irish cheiftain who so wisely invited the English to invade Ireland. Diarmait thought that he could play the English against the ruling Irish king to his advantage. Fat lot of good that did the Irish! I don't want it to take 700 years to throw the Greens out...
By the way, never question my backbone, punk.
No, we don't have the power to do that. No one does.
But we can give them the chance to embarrass themselves like never before.
Fifty years ago, did anyone think that homos and hippies would be completely running San Francisco?
Well that's your friendly neighborhood Democrates' fault, who you want to vote for, because the Greens have never run ANYTHING yet. You are so full of bitterness that you are making bad decisions, just like Howard Dean voters. Speaking of the Democrates, they are in a lose-lose situation if Gonzo wins. Lose in that they are outflanked on their left side.
And lose that the way they attack them is to criticise LIBERALISM, at a time when their base is getting more extreme every day. You are looking at this entirely too simplisticly, and throwing away happiness with both hands. This is the chance for the national Democratic party to crumble. I cannot begin to overstate the importance of the Greens coming in on their Left and beating them. Its not like its a Green vs a Republican, this is a Civil War and it will only lead to more because these factions have had an uneasy peace for a long time, and the Left has the upperhand.
You don't seem to understand, this might be the begining of the end of the Left being a political force in America! Stop being so binary, its not like the Democrate advances our agenda anyways, but the possibilities of epic failure by the Greens is off the charts.
This is the slick "New" Democrates worst nightmare. Vote Gonzo!
Apples and Oranges, America is a conservative country...ever heard of McGovern?
How has the rise and failure of the left positively affected San Francisco as it stands? It's already full of leftists, and this has greatly harmed a beautiful city - probably the most visually stunning city in this country, if not the world.
Blah blah blah, that's your problem, you don't want to see San Fran fail. :-( I don't get it, I visited there and I didn't see the appeal of Frisco, sounds like the pretentious liberal propoganda the media has spun on the city has got to you, its overcrowded, too expensive, too gay, too cold, too wet, too foggy, and too bum infested.
What we'll end up with is a major bulkhead on U.S. soil for Greens world-wide. It will be their entry point into the U.S. political system. Oh joy.
You should be joyous, how do they get to be a major political force winning in that loonball city? Who do they draw their votes from exactly? Last time I checked this campaign was trying to draw from the same exact base; Democrates. If they could do that nationally it would be wonderful, both of them would never top 20%!
You talk about long term thinking - you sound like Diarmait, the off-put 12th century Irish cheiftain who so wisely invited the English to invade Ireland.
Nice rant, like that 2% that the greens get OUTSIDE of SF in the rest of CA is the capacity to win....ANYTHING? The greens got 15% in the 02 Gov election, but overall they were nothing. Do you know why? Because everyone over 22 knows their policies are immature.
By the way, never question my backbone, punk.
Ha, its obvious now that its not backbone, you are simply an idiot.
You are so full of bitterness that you are making bad decisions, just like Howard Dean voters
Whoa there, pardner!
I am not talking about voting for Democrats, nor am I bitter about anything. I am simply pointing out that giving any support to out-and-out communists is playing with fire.
Ahh, but you are bitter, against communists. Its such a slam dunk (hating commies) that maybe its not obvious, but don't let your disdain for their politics prevent you from using them like the $3 whores they are.
No one, outside of the aforementioned San Fran, votes Green in any significant number. I could be wrong because I haven't looked it up, but I think the Losertarians outnumber them nationally. (They're both fringe)
You aren't going to have Republicans or Libertarians getting wobbly and voting Commie, so where is the fire?
You will have liberal Democrates wobblying...lots of them. The whole house of cards that is the "New" Democrates, pretending to be Centrists and fooling the American people come crashing down in a loud, shrill thud.
Then you end up with Canada, where the Conservatives are permanently spread across 2 parties, and the Liberal party is cleaning their clocks. They didn't get magically more Rightwing because a new party gained promenence a few years ago, they went left...Cretin left.
The opposite could happen here in America. Divided-they will fall. Its the Democrates who have been playing with fire since the 1960's accepting and encouraging the Radical-Left. They are now in grave danger, either with the Greens emerging or Dean embarrassing, to get 3rd degree burns.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.