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Living in a world of unknown unknowns (Mark Steyn Rocks!)
Jerusalem Post ^ | Dec. 10, 2003 | Mark Steyn

Posted on 12/09/2003 9:00:08 PM PST by Alouette

Last week, Britain's Plain English Campaign announced its Golden Bull Awards for the year's choicest gobbledygook and presented (in absentia) its prestigious Foot-In-Mouth honor to Donald Rumsfeld. This was his winning performance:

"Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me," the US defense secretary began, "because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don't know we don't know."

If the Plain English Campaign thinks that's the worst use of English this year, then the Plain English Campaign is plain nuts. If there's a point to these guys, it's that there's an awful lot of bureaucratese and jargon around that officials use to evade responsibility and it's useful to have someone point that out.

If one had to extend it to the war on terror, I would be in favor of pointing out the laziness of the "root cause" crowd – all the poverty-breeds-resentment, resentment-breeds-desperation, desperation-breeds-terrorism, terrorism-breeds-generalities, generalities-breed-cliches stuff.

Any response to the latest Palestinian atrocity that involves "ending the cycle of violence" and "getting the peace process back on track" is also worthy of derision.

But Rummy does not fall into this group. The defense secretary is perhaps the best speaker of Plain English in English-speaking politics, and it would be a less despised profession if there were more like him. Want an example?

At some Pentagon briefing during the Afghan campaign, a showboating reporter noted that human rights groups had objected to the dropping of cluster bombs and demanded to know why the US was using them. Rumsfeld replied:

"They're being used on frontline al-Qaida and Taliban troops to try to kill them." Plain enough for you?

Or how about his dismissal of France and Germany? "Old Europe."

Within a week, Rummy's two-word throwaway had become the accepted paradigm of transatlantic relations. Belgium – Old Europe. Poland – New Europe.

I MENTION these examples not in mitigation but because his little riff about known knowns, known unknowns and unknown unknowns is in fact a brilliant distillation of quite a complex matter.

Let us take an example close to the heart of arrogant Texas cowboys: John Wayne is holed up in an old prospector's shack. He peeks over the sill and drawls, "It's quiet out there. Too quiet."

What he means is that he knows the things he doesn't know. He doesn't know the precise location of the bad guys, but he knows they're out there somewhere inching through the dust perhaps trying to get to the large cactus from behind which they can get a clean shot at him. Thus he knows what to be on the lookout for: he is living in a world of known unknowns. But suppose, while he was scanning the horizon for a black hat or the glint of a revolver, a passenger jet suddenly ploughed into the shack and vaporized both him and it. That would be one of Rumsfeld's unknown unknowns: something poor John Wayne didn't know he didn't know – until it hit him.

That's how most of the world reacted to September 11: we didn't know this was one of the things we didn't know. Even for countries with some experience in the matter, terrorism meant detonating bombs in shopping streets and railway stations. As The New York Times's Thomas Friedman wrote, "The failure to prevent September 11 was not a failure of intelligence or coordination. It was a failure of imagination."

In other words, it was an unknown unknown: we didn't know enough to be alert for the things we didn't know.

THERE'S A legitimate argument about that. Given al-Qaida's stated ambitions, given their previous targeting of the World Trade Center, given the number of young Arab men taking flight lessons in the United States, given Muhammad Atta's indiscreet remarks to a Department of Agriculture official, maybe 9/11 should have been a known unknown – one of those things we were scanning the horizon for. Friedman argues that "even if all the raw intelligence signals had been shared among the FBI, the C.I.A. and the White House, I'm convinced that there was no one there who would have put them all together, who would have imagined evil on the scale Osama bin Laden did."

Maybe so. The Cold War was a half-century of known unknowns. We didn't know the precise timing or specifics of what would happen but we knew the rough shape so well that, from Dr. Strangelove to Where The Wind Blows, the known unknowns generated the most numbingly homogeneous body of predictive fiction ever seen. It's trickier now.

This is an age of unknown unknowns. We know some of the things we don't know – the precise state of Iran's nuclear program, whom North Korea's been pitching its wares to, where the missing Soviet nuke materials have gone walkabout, who else has the kind of "explosive socks" found by Scotland Yard and MI5 last week – but we have no real idea in what combination these states and groups and technology and footwear might impress themselves upon us, or what other links in the chain there might be.

And we might not know until we switch on the TV and the screen's full of smoke again, but this time it's May 7 and Rotterdam, or February 3 and Vancouver, or October 23 and Glasgow. And we realize once again that there are things we didn't know we didn't know.

Rumsfeld's line is a cool, clear-headed way of understanding this new world. The fact that the Plain English Campaign chooses to mock Rummy rather than the platitudinous Colin Powell or the mellifluously banal Dominique de Villepin or any of the other politicians unwilling to rise to the challenge of the times is a reflection on them rather than the defense secretary.

Whatever credibility the Plain English Campaign might once have had, they have blown. They sound, to put in plain English, like a bunch of smug tossers.


TOPICS: Extended News; Foreign Affairs; Government; Israel; News/Current Events; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: explosivesocks; knownunknowns; marksteyn; plainenglish; rummy; rumsfeld; scotlandyard; socks; steyn; unknownknowns

1 posted on 12/09/2003 9:00:08 PM PST by Alouette
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To: 1bigdictator; 1st-P-In-The-Pod; 2sheep; a_witness; adam_az; af_vet_rr; agrace; ...
FRmail me to be added or removed from this pro-Israel ping list.


2 posted on 12/09/2003 9:01:36 PM PST by Alouette (Personne me plumerá)
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To: Alouette
We're beating this story to death...on a daily basis.
3 posted on 12/09/2003 9:03:26 PM PST by Consort
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Comment #4 Removed by Moderator

To: Alouette
Thanks for the ping.
5 posted on 12/09/2003 10:27:26 PM PST by Grampa Dave (George Soros, the Evil Daddy Warbucks, has owned the Demonic Rats for decades!)
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To: Alouette
The man's courageous use of plain English and honest replies drives the traitors into "conniption fits". He stands up for basic common sense, answers any questions as far as his knowledge or security responsibilities permit, prefers an open-door policy over ducking and weaving (last administration) and what does it garner him? Lawsuits and unreasonable hatred from the cowards who would have America give up at the first sight of a hostile turban. Mr. Rumsfeld is the right man in the right place at the right time.

Now who’s got that picture of him throwing a lightning bolt Helen Thomas’s way?
6 posted on 12/09/2003 10:33:39 PM PST by NewRomeTacitus (And if you buy two sets of martyr cards now we'll throw in this famous dishtowel...free!)
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To: Alouette
Thanks for the ping.

I heard Rumsfeld's statement not long ago on the news here (Australia).The item was in regard to the plain english award.

My first reaction upon hearing it was...what's hard to understand about that? and I said as much to my wife.

The fact is though that I was listening and thinking about what he was saying.

"They sound, to put in plain English, like a bunch of smug tossers."

Quite!

7 posted on 12/09/2003 11:10:59 PM PST by mitch5501 (by the grace of God,I am what I am)
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To: Alouette
brilliant!
8 posted on 12/10/2003 12:44:47 AM PST by lainde
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To: Alouette; SJackson; yonif; Simcha7; American in Israel; spectacularbid2003; Binyamin; ...
I still remember the moment it was vividly impressed on me we were no longer dealing with the corrupt, vascillating, mediocre Clinton Administration. I was watching one of the many Pentagon press briefings in the months after 9/11. One of the "showboating reporters" asked one of those annoying questions the WH press pool had been notorious for concerning "policy" and if it had changed concerning Bin Laden.

Rummy almost snarled, "It has been the policy of the Bush Administration to find Bin Laden dead or alive. Preferably dead." Or words to that effect. I near had to pick myself up off the floor. In the wake of the national trauma of 9/11, the fact that the U.S. Government was decidedly moving to execute judgment on the murderers of our fellow Americans after eight years of appeasement and playing word games was a jolt.

I've been a Rummy fan ever since.

SOD Donald Rumsfeld: America's answer to Osama Bin Laden et.al


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9 posted on 12/10/2003 10:34:23 AM PST by Salem (FREE REPUBLIC - Fighting to win within the Arena of the War of Ideas! So get in the fight!)
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To: Alouette
Rumsfeld's line is a cool, clear-headed way of understanding this new world. The fact that the Plain English Campaign chooses to mock Rummy rather than the platitudinous Colin Powell or the mellifluously banal Dominique de Villepin or any of the other politicians unwilling to rise to the challenge of the times is a reflection on them rather than the defense secretary.

Amen! We need more conservative leaders with Rumsfeld's unashamed, unapologetic plainspeak.

10 posted on 12/10/2003 10:44:47 AM PST by workerbee
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To: Alouette; Salem; dueler88
Bravo Mr. Steyn! ... and thank you, Salem for the Ping.

Rumsfeld runs rhetorical circles around the Left as effectively as he formulates strategic victories agaist the nation's enemies ...and they can't stand it. The Right isn't 'supposed' to be brilliant. Likewise, we on the Right can't understand why so many seemingly intelligent people of the Left are such thick-headed, stubborn, myopic, voluntarily ignorant, dunderheads when it comes to national security; and a host of other issues for that matter. Hating Bush as a motivation for the forfeiting of rational judgment can only last so long before one goes walking off a cliff drooling and babbling incoherently.

Once again, Mr. Steyn introduces the Left to a matter of it's own intellectual obfuscation. They know what they know when they want to know it. They don't know what they know they know when it fails to support their political agenda. And they never know what they don't know they don't know when it challenges their world view.

I believe Mrs. Rand simply called that a blank out.


11 posted on 12/10/2003 12:58:45 PM PST by Mr.Atos
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To: Mr.Atos
Articulate critique of the Left, as always, Mr. Atos....  !
12 posted on 12/10/2003 2:01:24 PM PST by Salem (FREE REPUBLIC - Fighting to win within the Arena of the War of Ideas! So get in the fight!)
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To: Salem
ping!
13 posted on 12/10/2003 10:51:32 PM PST by lainde
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