Now that is very good analysis based on past performance, and you may very well have it right.
To those who say he is trying to give out disinformation, I would direct your attention to at least two FR posts that tell of stunning raids, arrests, and killings of Saddam-ites in the last 48 hours. We have the intel and the confirmation; and we are acting on it. It's what MG Odierno (CG, 4th ID) called 'actionable intelligence'.