Iran's Careful Pursuit of Nuclear Weapons
December 23, 2003
IslamOnline
Erich Marquardt
On November 26, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) condemned Iran for an 18-year cover-up of its nuclear research program. Iran’s failure to disclose certain details of its nuclear research program has raised speculation that Tehran is attempting to research and develop nuclear weapons.
The leadership in Tehran, on the other hand, considers nuclear weapons a strategic goal, because the country is located in a volatile region that has been historically manipulated by outside powers due to the huge oil and gas reserves found there.
In recent years, Iran has stood by idly as the United States has projected its influence into the Middle East. At the end of 2001, the Bush administration launched a military invasion of Afghanistan. Afghanistan has now become an outpost for US forces, giving Washington the ability to influence political events throughout Central Asia and the Middle East. Then, in March of 2003, the Bush administration overthrew Saddam Hussein’s Ba’thist government in Baghdad and established a large-scale US occupation in the strategically significant state.
The US invasion of Iraq demonstrated to the world that the Bush administration was prepared to risk the political, economic and military fallout connected with a large-scale invasion of a Middle Eastern country. The symbolism of Washington effectively executing a policy of “regime change” in one member of its “axis of evil” proved to Tehran that the United States was a serious threat.
In addition to the United States, Iran also has concerns over the state of Israel, a country that has military dominance in the Middle East and has shown that it will forcefully limit the growing power of rival Middle Eastern states. This commitment was best displayed by Tel Aviv’s attack on Baghdad’s Osirak nuclear reactor in 1981. Tehran, which does not want to accept any outside restraints on its power, realizes that by acquiring nuclear weapons it will be better able to achieve its foreign policy interests.
Washington is justifiably concerned over Tehran’s covert activities. The Bush administration has tried to get the UN Security Council to place sanctions on Tehran for failing to comply with its obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. For Washington, it would become a foreign policy dilemma if Tehran were to acquire nuclear weapons; a nuclear-armed Iran would greatly reduce Washington’s foreign policy leverage in shaping developments in the Middle East and Central Asia.
Indeed, Washington officials have admitted as much. In September, State Department official Paula DeSutter said, “The impact of a nuclear-armed Iran in an already volatile region cannot be underestimated. As President Bush had made clear, that cannot be allowed to happen.” Tel Aviv has issued similar proclamations; Israeli Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz recently warned that “under no circumstances would Israel be able to abide by nuclear weapons in Iranian possession.”
Unfortunately for Washington and Israel, other powerful states do not share their geopolitical interests. The European Union, for instance, has important diplomatic and economic ties with Tehran; the bloc is Iran’s biggest trading partner. This relationship explains why the UK, France and Germany sent their foreign ministers to help negotiate Iran’s decision to comply with the IAEA. Rather than join the US in referring Iran’s transgressions to the UN Security Council, the three states promised Tehran that if it complied with IAEA demands, the EU would be willing to actually assist Iran’s nuclear research program.
Tehran applauded the EU’s decision. Hassan Rowhani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, confrontationally exclaimed: “The United States did not achieve a single one of its objectives concerning Iran’s nuclear activities.”
Russia does not share Washington’s interests in weakening Iran, either. Moscow has been the integral force behind Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. Russian engineers are building the Iranian nuclear reactor at Bushehr. Moscow is also Iran’s major military supplier; in the past decade, it has provided Tehran with MiG-29 fighter aircraft, Su-24 fighter bombers, T-72 tanks, and Kilo class attack submarines.
Moscow doesn’t want the US heavily involved in the Middle East and Central Asia anymore than Tehran does. Since the September 11 attacks, Washington has been increasing its influence all across Russia’s southern borders, establishing military bases in former Soviet republics. Moscow has found itself having to compete with Washington in areas often considered part of Russia’s backyard. These diverging strategic interests between the two superpowers explain Moscow’s support for Iran’s nuclear research program.
The differing interests between regionally significant states will make it tough for any form of international consensus on Iran to form. As long as Tehran proceeds carefully and works with the European Union and Russia, it will come closer to acquiring the technology and resources needed to develop nuclear weapons. Because a nuclear-armed Iran would seriously threaten US and Israeli interests in the region, it will be vital to watch the countermeasures to this program devised in Washington and Tel Aviv.
http://www.islamonline.org/English/Views/2003/12/article07.shtml
