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Drug use by teenagers declines, continues its decline
Associated Press ^ | 12/20/03 | AP

Posted on 12/23/2003 9:58:02 PM PST by bdeaner

Drug use by teenagers declines, continues its decline

Associated Press - December 20, 2003

WASHINGTON (AP) - American teenagers are cutting back on their use of illicit drugs and cigarettes, but alcohol consumption is holding steady, the government says.

An annual survey of eighth-, 10th- and 12th-graders done for the Department of Health and Human Services, found declines in many kinds of drugs for high school students, especially for Ecstasy and LSD.

Overall, the Bush administration said the annual survey funded by the National Institute on Drug Abuse showed an 11 percent drop in illegal drug use in the past two years, slightly surpassing President Bush's goal of a 10 percent reduction during that period.

The survey, known as Monitoring the Future, tracked drug use and attitudes among 48,500 students from 392 schools.

There was one troubling sign: slowing declines in the use of certain drugs by eighth graders - and a slight increase in their use of inhalants, said Lloyd D. Johnston, who directed the study by the University of Michigan's Institute for Social Research.

``We should take this as a little warning because eighth graders have been indicative of things to come in the past,'' Johnston said.

In addition, there was an overall increase in the illicit use of the synthetic painkillers OxyContin and vicodin, reflective of patterns seen in the general population.

The survey showed a different picture of drug use from another poll of teens that also is used to measure the effectiveness of White House drug control policy. A private study by Pride Surveys in September showed illegal drug use and cigarette smoking among sixth- through 12th-graders increased slightly during the last school year compared with the year before.

But both surveys agreed that marijuana remains by far the most widely used illegal drug. Monitoring the Future reported that it had been tried at least once by 46 percent of 12th graders and used by more than a third in the past year. Both numbers showed a decrease over last year.

``More kids are seeking treatment for marijuana dependency than all other drugs combined,'' John Walters, director of the White House Office of National Drug Control Policy, said at a news conference. Walters added that in 15 cities, surveys have found that more teens smoke marijuana than regular cigarettes.

However, he said the results were encouraging.

``This survey shows that when we push back against the drug problem, it gets smaller,'' Walters said.

Johnston and administration officials offered differing explanations for the decline in use of Ecstasy and LSD.

Ecstasy, also known as MDMA, is a synthetic drug considered part hallucinogen and part amphetamine. The drug became popular at dance parties because of the energy and euphoria it gave to users, but it has harmful side effects. It can lead to brain, heart and kidney damage.

Johnston said teens now are more aware about the risks of Ecstasy.

The reduced availability of LSD, following the breakup in 2000 of a lab that produced large quantities of the drug, accounted for the drop in its use, said Karen Tandy, administrator of the drug enforcement administration. The use of LSD is at its lowest level since the federal government began a survey of teen-age drug use 30 years ago.

LSD, known as acid, can cause hallucinations and delusions.

The percentage of teens who smoke cigarettes has fallen dramatically from the mid-1990s, the result of advertising campaigns and the rise in cigarette prices.

But the survey showed that, among 8th- and 10th-graders, the decline slowed significantly.

William V. Corr, executive director of Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids, said the numbers reflect a ``lack of federal leadership on tobacco prevention'' and decisions by cash-strapped states to cut their prevention program.

Johnston, the study's director, said that despite progress in keeping teens from smoking, ``one-quarter of our kids, by the end of high school, are smoking cigarettes.''

On the Net:

White House Office of National Drug Control: http://www.whitehousedrugpolicy.gov

Monitoring the Future: http://monitoringthefuture.org


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Front Page News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: alcohol; cigarettes; drugcontrol; drugs; druguse; ecstasy; futurelibertarians; illicitdrugs; inhalants; lsd; marijuana; oxycontin; teenagers; vicodin; wod
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Good news! Teenagers are also saying no to sex.
1 posted on 12/23/2003 9:58:04 PM PST by bdeaner
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To: bdeaner
Good news, Just another thing to make the democratic party shrivel up and die!
2 posted on 12/23/2003 10:09:29 PM PST by Blue Highway
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To: bdeaner
The goofballs, I mean experts, on NPR were trying to explain why teen pregnancy was declining. Funny, they didn't mention the possibility that kids are becoming more conservative, or, heaven forbid, more religious. Now this news. The rats must be very troubled.
3 posted on 12/23/2003 10:21:53 PM PST by Jeff Chandler (Chilling Effect-1, Global Warming-0)
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Comment #4 Removed by Moderator

To: Jeff Chandler
The goofballs, I mean experts, on NPR were trying to explain why teen pregnancy was declining. Funny, they didn't mention the possibility that kids are becoming more conservative, or, heaven forbid, more religious. Now this news. The rats must be very troubled.

As a teacher, from personal experience, it seems crystal clear to me that young people today are becoming more and more conservative. There is no question in my mind. Surveys I've seen appear to support this trend.
5 posted on 12/23/2003 10:47:10 PM PST by bdeaner
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To: bdeaner
Very good news indeed, and against all the brainwashing in the media and the academy (no offense intended)!
6 posted on 12/23/2003 10:50:40 PM PST by Jeff Chandler (Chilling Effect-1, Global Warming-0)
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To: bdeaner
If you believe that drug use is declining, you are very naive. What is happening is that teenagers are becoming wise to the stupid polls. One of the high schools in my county (a rural area of WA State) numbered in the highest percentage of drug use in the country and the public school where I live (a border town, where almost 95% of the kids really do use drugs) was recorded as one of the lowest. Kids have just wised up to the stupid polls.
7 posted on 12/23/2003 10:55:26 PM PST by Eva
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To: Eva
If you believe that drug use is declining, you are very naive. What is happening is that teenagers are becoming wise to the stupid polls. One of the high schools in my county (a rural area of WA State) numbered in the highest percentage of drug use in the country and the public school where I live (a border town, where almost 95% of the kids really do use drugs) was recorded as one of the lowest. Kids have just wised up to the stupid polls.

That's your anecdotal evidence against actual, empirical evidence. Certainly, demand characteristics are always an issue with surveys, and therefore always a potential confounding variable. But, even if the kids are 'wising up to the polls,' as you claim, why didn't kids 'wise up' to them in the past? What these surveys claim is that there is a difference between survey data today compared to the past -- but kids in the past, I would assume, were just as likely to be subject to the same kinds of demand characreristics in these polls. That in itself would eliminate the confound, acting as a control mechanism, that validates these findings -- if not the actual numbers, at least the difference between cohorts. In short, there is more reason to believe the meaning of the results (that there is a real difference) than there is to doubt them. So, no, I'm not naive.
8 posted on 12/23/2003 11:07:34 PM PST by bdeaner
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To: bdeaner
Yes, you are naive. Drug use is still rising, not declining. The drugs are changing, but not declining. My youngest is a junior in college and I have friends who teach in the schools and have kids who are still in high school. Even the local Christian school that my son attended is getting worse because they are accepting kids who were kicked out of the public school to raise funds for expansion.
9 posted on 12/23/2003 11:19:43 PM PST by Eva
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To: Eva
Yes, you are naive. Drug use is still rising, not declining. The drugs are changing, but not declining. My youngest is a junior in college and I have friends who teach in the schools and have kids who are still in high school. Even the local Christian school that my son attended is getting worse because they are accepting kids who were kicked out of the public school to raise funds for expansion.

Again, Eva, this is anecdotal evidence -- that is, your subjective experience -- rather than empirical evidence. Still, you may be right about your particular area of the country. But you must remember that the survey described above is a description of adolescents across the entire country. The survey is merely saying that, on the whole (in general, on average), drug use among teenagers is declining. Almost certainly, there are areas of the country that have increased in drug use, and perhaps yours is one of them (it probably is). At the same time, more areas of the country have decreased drug use than have increased drug use. For example, perhaps your neighborhood is increasing, but another neighborhood in another part of the country decreased more than yours increased. On the whole, accounting for teenagers all across the country, there is less drug use among teens now than there was in the past. That's what the survey says. It is not a survey of your town.

Basic statistics. Average or mean = Sum of X/N. Translated to this research study: Sum of all teenagers' drug use divided by the total number of teenagers. Some teenagers in some parts of the country are using more, yes, but most teenagers, on average, are using less. Capice?
10 posted on 12/23/2003 11:34:01 PM PST by bdeaner
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To: bdeaner
Well it's good news through drug use always seems to have it's small ups and downs with apparently no reason. Until we see something like a greater than 33% decline then we can get excited.

Though as the parents start to be more and more Gen-Xers instead of the selfish, Divorce Prone, Could give a Rats A§§ about their children baby boomers I would expect drug use and all other problems with many kids have had in the past 20 years to decline.

11 posted on 12/23/2003 11:43:01 PM PST by qam1 (@Starting Generation X Ping list - Freep me to be added and see my home page for details)
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To: qam1; Eva
The following is the original press release from the United States Department of Health & Human Services, which includes more information about the methods and results:

News Release

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Friday, Dec. 19, 2003

Media Contacts:
ONDCP: Tom Riley, 202-395-6618
NIDA: Blair Gately, 301-443-6245

Teen Drug Abuse Declines Across Wide Front

Eleven Percent Reduction Exceeds President's Two-Year Goal

HHS Secretary Tommy G. Thompson and John P. Walters, director of the White House Office of National Drug Control Policy, today released results of the 2003 Monitoring the Future survey, showing an 11 percent decline in drug use by 8th, 10th, and 12th grade students over the past two years. The finding translates into 400,000 fewer teen drug users over two years.

When President Bush released his first National Drug Control Strategy in February 2002, he set aggressive national goals to reduce youth drug use by 10 percent in two years and 25 percent in five years. Today's release of the 2003 Monitoring the Future Study confirms that President Bush's two-year goal has been exceeded. Current use (past 30 days) of any illicit drug between 2001 and 2003 among students declined 11 percent, from 19.4 percent to 17.3 percent. Similar declines were seen for past year use (11 percent, from 31.8 percent to 28.3 percent) and lifetime use (9 percent, from 41 percent to 37.4 percent).

"Teen drug use has reached a level that we haven't seen in nearly a decade," Director Walters said. "This survey shows that when we push back against the drug problem, it gets smaller. Fewer teens are using drugs because of the deliberate and serious messages they have received about the dangers of drugs from their parents, leaders, and prevention efforts like our National Youth Anti-Drug Media Campaign. Having fewer youth use drugs is important because we know that if young people can abstain from drugs before they graduate from high school, they are much less likely to use and have problems with them later."

"This survey offers promising signs that more children and young adults are steering clear of illegal drugs," Secretary Thompson said. "Monitoring the Future confirms that prevention efforts by federal agencies, states, communities and our many partners in the private and volunteer sectors are having the desired effect. We are pleased to have exceeded the President's two-year goal and look forward to a continued and needed reduction in drug use in the coming years. We must now lengthen our stride as we seek to reach the young people who are still putting their health and futures at risk."

Use of marijuana, the most commonly used illicit drug among youth, declined significantly. Current use declined 11 percent, from 16.6 percent to 14.8 percent; past year use also declined 11 percent, from 27.5 percent to 24.5 percent; and lifetime use declined 8.2 percent, from 35.3 to 32.4 percent. The National Youth Anti-Drug Media Campaign, a comprehensive federal effort to provide drug prevention messages to America's children, was reworked in 2002 to produce harder-hitting ads that have focused on the harms of marijuana.

Of the 7.1 million Americans that need drug treatment -- 19 percent of which are teenagers -- over 60 percent need treatment for marijuana. The Media Campaign has been a powerful tool in this effort to educate Americans, particularly teens, on the serious threat marijuana poses.

In addition to measuring usage rates, Monitoring the Future also measures student attitudes about drugs. Among all three grades, the perceived risk of using marijuana increased markedly. Exposure to anti-drug advertising (of which, the Media Campaign is the major contributor) has had an effect on improving youth anti-drug attitudes and intentions, Director Walters said. In the Monitoring survey, youth attitudes among all three grades are found to be to a "great extent" or "very great extent" less favorable toward drugs, and students say the ads they have seen make them less likely to use drugs in the future. The increase in negative attitudes toward drug use corresponds with the course of the Media Campaign, launched in 1998. More than half of the increase in these outcomes among all three grades has occurred in the past two years. This is particularly striking among 10th graders, the primary target audience of the Media Campaign.

Monitoring the Future also showed significant declines in the use of other drugs. The use of LSD and ecstasy among youth has plummeted. Lifetime use of LSD fell 43 percent between 2001 and 2003 (from 6.6 percent to 3.7 percent) and past year and current use each dropped by nearly two-thirds (from 4.1 percent to 1.6 percent and 1.5 percent to 0.6 percent, respectively). Lifetime use of ecstasy dropped 32 percent, from 8.0 percent to 5.5 percent. Past year and current use were each cut in half (from 6.1 percent to 3.1 percent and 2.4 percent to 1.1 percent).

"The overall reduction in drug use by America's young people is heartening," said National Institute of Drug Abuse Director, Dr. Nora Volkow. "We are confident that our concerted effort to provide students and teachers with informative, accurate information about addiction and drug abuse will contribute to further reductions in drug use."

"Monitoring the Future has been tracking substance use and related attitudes among American teenagers for nearly 30 years," states Lloyd Johnston, the study's lead researcher. "Because its methods have been scientifically rigorous, and intentionally held constant across time, its results have proven to be quite accurate and reliable."

In addition, lifetime and current use of cigarettes declined among 8th, 10th, and 12th graders between 2001 and 2003. Lifetime alcohol use by all three grades also declined over the past two years, suggesting that teens do not trade one intoxicating substance for another.

The Monitoring the Future survey is designed to measure drug, alcohol, and cigarette use and related attitudes among adolescent students nationwide. Survey participants report their drug use behaviors across three time periods: lifetime, past year, and past month. Overall, 48,467 students from 392 public and private schools in the 8th, 10th, and 12th grades participated in this year's survey. The survey is funded by the National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA), a component of HHS' National Institutes of Health, and conducted since its inception by the University of Michigan. Information from this survey helps the nation to identify potential drug problem areas and ensure that resources are targeted to areas of greatest need.

Monitoring the Future is one of three major HHS-sponsored surveys that provide data on substance use among youth. The Web site is http://monitoringthefuture.org.

The National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH), sponsored by HHS' Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration, is the primary source of statistical information on illicit drug use in the U.S. population 12 years of age and older. Formerly known as the National Household Survey on Drug Abuse, the survey collects data in household interviews, currently using computer-assisted self-administration for drug-related items. More information is available at http://www.drugabusestatistics.samhsa.gov.

The Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS), part of HHS' Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System, is a school survey that collects data from students in grades 9-12. The survey includes questions on a wide variety of health-related risk behaviors, not simply drug abuse. More information is available at http://www.cdc.gov/nccdphp/dash/yrbs/index.htm.

More information on Monitoring the Future can be found at http://www.whitehousedrugpolicy.gov.

###

12 posted on 12/23/2003 11:58:39 PM PST by bdeaner
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To: bdeaner
it seems crystal clear to me that young people today are becoming more and more conservative.

I couldn't agree more. I am a single dad with 2 teenage boys, and very involved in my kids lives. I have 3 older children so I have a generational perspective as well.

Unequivocally, the children of today are increasingly more conservative, suspicious of most of the contemporary dogma, and dismissive of attitudes and conclusions being taught by adults. In short, many more children of today just don't trust their parents or their teachers.

My observations of the parents that I interact with, and these are the active, mostly stay-at-home-types, and the teachers that I observe up close and personal, is that the kids have a point!

13 posted on 12/23/2003 11:58:58 PM PST by carlo3b (http://www.CookingWithCarlo.com)
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To: carlo3b
What is the point.
14 posted on 12/24/2003 12:02:09 AM PST by fatima (Karen is coming home Dec,24,4 day trip,convoy-please pray ,2 weeks leave,)
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To: qam1; Eva
Here is the purpose and design of the Monitoring the Future study on teen drug use:







Purposes of Monitoring the Future

The Monitoring the Future (MTF) project, begun in 1975, has many purposes. Among them is to study changes in the beliefs, attitudes, and behavior of young people in the United States. In recent years, the U.S. has experienced tremendous changes in public opinion toward such diverse issues as government and politics, alcohol and other drug use, gender roles, and protection of the environment. Much of our current upheaval in attitudes is especially concentrated, and often first seen, in today's youth. This study focuses on youth because of their significant involvement in today's social changes and, most important, because youth in a very literal sense will constitute our future society.

The results of the study are useful to policymakers at all levels of government, for example, to monitor progress toward national health goals. Study results are also used to monitor trends in substance use and abuse among adolescents and young adults and are used routinely in the White House Strategy on Drug Abuse.



Design of Monitoring the Future

The Monitoring the Future (MTF) project, also widely known for some years as the National High School Senior Survey, is a repeated series of surveys in which the same segments of the population (8th, 10th, and 12th graders; college students; and young adults) are presented with the same set of questions over a period of years to see how answers change over time.

The project has been conducted under a series of research grants from the National Institute on Drug Abuse, a part of the National Institutes of Health. Surveys have been carried out each year since 1975 by the University of Michigan Survey Research Center. MTF respondents are 8th, 10th, and 12th grade students who participate by completing self-administered, machine-readable questionnaires in their normal classrooms, administered by University personnel.

The survey began with senior classes in 1975, and each year about 16,000 students in approximately 133 public and private high schools nationwide participate. Beginning in 1991, similar surveys of nationally representative samples of 8th and 10th graders have been conducted annually; the 8th-grade samples contain about 18,000 students in about 150 schools, and the 10th-grade samples contain about 17,000 students in about 140 schools. In all, approximately 50,000 students in about 420 public and private secondary schools are surveyed annually.

Beginning with the class of 1976, a randomly selected sample from each senior class has been followed up biannually after high school on a continuing basis. These respondents receive a mail questionnaire at their home, which they complete and return to MTF.

The study's design permits the investigators to examine four kinds of change:

  1. Changes in particular years reflected across all age groups (secular trends or "period effects").
  2. Developmental changes that show up consistently for all panels ("age effects").
  3. Consistent differences among class cohorts through the life cycle ("cohort effects").
  4. Changes linked to different types of environments (high school, college, employment) or role transitions (leaving the parental home, marriage, parenthood, etc.).



Sampling Procedures

The data from students are collected during the spring of each year. Each year's data collection takes place in approximately 420 public and private high schools and middle schools selected to provide an accurate representative cross section of students throughout the coterminous United States at each grade level.

A multi-stage random sampling procedure is used for securing the nationwide sample of students each year at each grade level.

Within each school, up to 350 students may be included. In schools with fewer students, the usual procedure is to include all of them in the data collection. In larger schools, a subset of students is selected either by randomly sampling entire classrooms or by some other random method that is judged to be unbaised. Sampling weights are used when the data are analyzed to correct for unequal probabilities of selection that occurred at any stage of sampling.



Administration

About 10 days before the in-school administration, the students are given flyers explaining the study. Also, advance letters to parents inform them about the study and provide them a handy means for declining their child's participation if they so desire. The actual questionnaire administrations are conducted by the local Institute for Social Research representatives and their assistants, following standardized procedures detailed in a project instruction manual. The questionnaires are group administered in classrooms during a normal class period whenever possible; however, circumstances in some schools require the use of larger group administrations.

The follow-up questionnaires are mailed to respondents with a return, self-addressed, stamped envelope and a small monetary gift of $10 from the University of Michigan as a token of appreciation.

15 posted on 12/24/2003 12:04:00 AM PST by bdeaner
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To: qam1; Eva
All the data for the Monitoring the Future study is here. If you click on a link for a table, you'll open a PDF file. Pretty impressive data. Lifetime prevalence is the lowest among teens since 1993! Check it out.

Drug and Alcohol Press Release and Tables


Cigarette Smoking Press Release and Tables


16 posted on 12/24/2003 12:10:17 AM PST by bdeaner
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To: fatima
What is the point.

Most of the middle class parents and teachers in todays society are socially liberal, and former 60's hippies. They have selfish, noncustodial attitudes toward the kids. The children are mostly on their own, and have observed the adults in their lives and decided they are at least as smart as their parents and teachers.. Sadly many of them are.

17 posted on 12/24/2003 12:14:30 AM PST by carlo3b (http://www.CookingWithCarlo.com)
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To: bdeaner
Thank you so much for these wonderful links and data. There is indeed a lot to be upbeat about, but there is a long way to go for far too many kids.
18 posted on 12/24/2003 12:20:19 AM PST by carlo3b (http://www.CookingWithCarlo.com)
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To: bdeaner
Good news! More for me! ;-)
19 posted on 12/24/2003 12:24:31 AM PST by Fledermaus (Fascists, Totalitarians, Baathists, Communists, Socialists, Democrats - what's the difference?)
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To: Fledermaus
It's Bush's fault! Oops, I mean, what Saddam? Err, how about the economy? Ahh...never mind. Vote for Bush in 2004
20 posted on 12/24/2003 12:43:54 AM PST by AUH2OY2K
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To: Eva
Why in the world would they do that in your wise opinion?

Personally, I have found teenagers to be proud of their "rebellious acts". They are usually more than willing to brag about this sort of thing. Especially with the anonymity that polls provide.

So, what would they have to gain by altering the poll results?
21 posted on 12/24/2003 1:21:30 AM PST by texasflower (in the event of the rapture.......the Bush White House will be unmanned)
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To: bdeaner
Personally, I would always have to be somewhat hesitant to believe that shutting down a LSD plant or simply the awareness of risk would actually cause a decrease in drug use.
From what I have ever been able to tell, the stupid things that people do (adults or children) is almost always based on what is and isn't considered as being cool--regardless of the risk.
Again, shutting down a source of a particular drug should just drive up the price or allow for other manufacturers to increase their business to fill the gap. This is simply a matter of supply-and-demand.
The idea that teens have become more conservative, and thus they have become more realistic in their world-outlook; also sounds false to me. Regardless of political leaning, the only thing I know of to make someone able to look at life with a hard eye is hardship--outside of that and one is still probably just going with whatever sounded coolest at the time.

But, what the reason might be for decreased rates of drug use--I can't admit to having a close enough understanding to assert any preferred response. The only ideas I have at the moment are 1) That they are currently in an off-period of coolness, or 2) The lengthened state of a poor economy has effected the drug market--perhaps kids are getting less allowance, or maybe more adults are buying than before and the dealers are charging higher prices since adults can presumably afford more: Price can effect coolness after all (sour grapes.)
22 posted on 12/24/2003 1:27:34 AM PST by SageRat
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To: bdeaner; Eva
As a teacher, from personal experience, it seems crystal clear to me that young people today are becoming more and more conservative. There is no question in my mind.

Accusing another poster of "anecdotal" evidence, a trend you yourself started! As a teacher, you see a slim statistical sample of our kid's from one armpit town in the USA, and make a wild claim based on it. The number's reported in this "survey" from stellar types such as John Walters, are about as believable as your's. I turn 45 Saturday, trust me, we fudged their number's many decades ago, and it has been a concerted effort ever since. Blackbird.

23 posted on 12/24/2003 2:42:40 AM PST by BlackbirdSST
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To: BlackbirdSST
Couldn't agree more!

The so-called 'war on drugs' is corrupt -- it has turned into careers for many who would otherwise have to work for a living, and is now purely about politics and money.

Kids have wised up to the fact that if they answer surveys the 'wrong' way they will get more restrictive legislation thrown at them. They also have moved on to other substances (like glue, and mixing 'legal' drugs to get hallucinogenic effects).

Political contributors (like Wayne Huizenga) are being rewarded (he owns a large block of Psychemedics, a drug-testing company) by the administration promoting their industry, at the same time justifying more money for the WOD by claiming 'progress.'

It's ALL b.s.

24 posted on 12/24/2003 3:15:20 AM PST by Ed_in_NJ
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To: BlackbirdSST; Eva
Accusing another poster of "anecdotal" evidence, a trend you yourself started!

First: There is nothing wrong with using anecdotal evidence in and of itself. However, anecdotal evidence is inferior to empirical evidence. If we couldn't rely on acecdotal evidence, we wouldn't be able to make the kinds of basic decisions we make on a daily basis. But our decisions are biased by cognitive schemas; for example, we tend to notice evidence that confirms our own already entrenched beliefs.

In short: When faced with the choice between anecdotal evidence and empirical evidence, the empirical evidence wins. Period.

Second: I did not only cite anecdotal evidence. You only partially quoted my post. Since you have a cognitive schema that biased you from correctly interpreting my post in order to fit your own preconceptions, let me quote it again so you can have another chance to read the whole thing:

"As a teacher, from personal experience, it seems crystal clear to me that young people today are becoming more and more conservative. There is no question in my mind. Surveys I've seen appear to support this trend."

Two parts: First I talk about my personal experience, and then I mention that surveys I've read support this trend. So, I am not only using anecdotal evidence, I am also recalling empirical evidence. If you want citations of empirical evidence, I can get them.

Finally: If you believe these researchers are "fudging" their evidence, that is a serious allogation. If you're going to make those kind of allogations, you should back it up with some evidence; otherwise, it is just hot air. Not only that, it is defamation of character.
25 posted on 12/24/2003 9:22:44 AM PST by bdeaner
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To: jmc813; presidio9; robertpaulsen; Dane; ask; Hemingway's Ghost; Protagoras; TigersEye
This thread seems most appropriate to wish all a Merry Christmas.
26 posted on 12/24/2003 9:28:10 AM PST by AxelPaulsenJr (Excellence In Posting Since 1999)
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To: AxelPaulsenJr
And you didn't ping me?

Merry Christmas, and yes, this is very good news.

27 posted on 12/24/2003 9:29:04 AM PST by CWOJackson
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To: AxelPaulsenJr
Please don't ping me to any drug threads if you want me to have a Merry Christmas. Nothing left to be said that I haven't heard. No minds will be changed. Leave me out of it please. thank you.
28 posted on 12/24/2003 9:31:26 AM PST by Protagoras (Putting government in charge of morality is like putting pedophiles in charge of children.)
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To: BlackbirdSST
Couple posts on recent surveys:

Survey: More College Freshmen Identify as 'Conservative'

College Students More Conservative than General Public

The trends in these surveys are true to my personal experience as a teacher. In this case, the anecdotal evidence is supported by empirical evidence.
29 posted on 12/24/2003 9:36:51 AM PST by bdeaner
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To: texasflower
So, what would they have to gain by altering the poll results?

Exactly. And, even if kids do have something to gain, they probably would not be motivated by anything that didn't also motivate generations of kids who were surveyed in the past. So, the change is valid even if there are demand characteristics (e.g., if kids were faking good or bad or otherwise biased by the research context), because the demand characteristics have largely remained the same over time.
30 posted on 12/24/2003 9:41:59 AM PST by bdeaner
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To: AxelPaulsenJr
Same to you. A great way to end the year.
31 posted on 12/24/2003 9:51:57 AM PST by robertpaulsen
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To: AxelPaulsenJr
but but but...
I was told the War on Drugs was a complete failure!
32 posted on 12/24/2003 10:02:37 AM PST by presidio9 (Protectionists Treat The Symptoms And Ignore The Disease)
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To: Wolfie; vin-one; WindMinstrel; philman_36; Beach_Babe; jenny65; AUgrad; Xenalyte; Bill D. Berger; ..
WOD Ping
33 posted on 12/24/2003 10:57:24 AM PST by jmc813 (Help save a life - www.marrow.org)
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To: qam1
Though as the parents start to be more and more Gen-Xers instead of the selfish, Divorce Prone, Could give a Rats A§§ about their children baby boomers I would expect drug use and all other problems with many kids have had in the past 20 years to decline.

I think you've hit the nail on the head. Could you please add me to your ping list?

34 posted on 12/24/2003 10:59:17 AM PST by jmc813 (Help save a life - www.marrow.org)
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To: AxelPaulsenJr
This thread seems most appropriate to wish all a Merry Christmas.

Thanks Axel. I'm leaving the office soon and my home PC is still shot for the time being, so I'll take this opportunity to send out my holiday greetings to all of my buddies.

It's been a great year interacting with all of you. Whether I agree with you 90% of the time or 10% of the time, I consider y'all to be my online "friends" who make FReeping fun. Thanks for putting up with me when I'm in an irritable mood, as well as when I'm in a wiseass making-fun mood. Looking forward to another year of this great sociological experiment known as Free Republic.

Warmest Christmas wishes to you and yours. Don't forget the reason for the season!

35 posted on 12/24/2003 11:08:15 AM PST by jmc813 (Help save a life - www.marrow.org)
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To: BlackbirdSST
Looking at their sampling methodology, I don't think a 10% fluctuation due to sampling variance is out of reason, nor do I think it unreasonable to question wheather the "random selections" were entirely random.

I'm sure some people will see this as simply "sour grapes" by someone who just wants to denigrate Bush, but I think the reality is that the grunt work of producing these numbers is being done by career bureaucrats, many of them the same bureaucrats that were there way before Bush. When you tell them "We want to see a 10% reduction in these numbers, or heads are going to roll.", then they'll find some way to produce that 10% reduction. It's not so much an issue of Bush or Walters as it is of the way things work inside the beltway.

36 posted on 12/24/2003 11:31:11 AM PST by tacticalogic (Controlled application of force is the sincerest form of communication.)
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To: tacticalogic
Looking at their sampling methodology, I don't think a 10% fluctuation due to sampling variance is out of reason, nor do I think it unreasonable to question wheather the "random selections" were entirely random.

There is always the possibility of random error, and perhaps also sampling bias. They are not specific about how they chose their geographical areas, for example. So I think this is a legitimate criticism.

Assuming this is a geniunely random sample, however, it is a good bet, probability-wise, to conclude that there is a significant difference in this newest cohort, compared to past cohorts. I'd be willing to reject the null hypothesis here, but maybe you are looking for more stringent criteria, which is fine too. I can appreciate that.

I appreciate the skepticism, which is the appropriate attitude toward any study such as this. When skepticism crosses over into cynicism, however, I grow a bit concerned.
37 posted on 12/24/2003 11:43:51 AM PST by bdeaner
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To: bdeaner
I may occasionally cross that line into cynicism, particularly where federal bureaucracies are concerned. OTOH, I think the same criticism of a report by the Clinton administration wouldn't have raised an eyebrow here. I don't think it's cynical to doubt that a change of administration is going to have a significant impact on the culture of the beltway in 3 years.
38 posted on 12/24/2003 11:55:49 AM PST by tacticalogic (Controlled application of force is the sincerest form of communication.)
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To: bdeaner; jmc813; Wolfie; vin-one; WindMinstrel; Beach_Babe; jenny65; AUgrad; Xenalyte; ...
This reporting is pure BS!
From the report itself...
Overview of Findings from 2002 National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH)
Several improvements to the survey were implemented in 2002. In addition to the name change, respondents were offered a $30 incentive payment for participation in the survey starting in 2002, and quality control procedures for data collection were enhanced in 2001 and 2002. Because of these improvements and modifications, estimates from the 2002 NSDUH should not be compared with estimates from the 2001 or earlier versions of the survey to examine changes over time. The data collected in 2002 represent a new baseline for tracking trends in substance use and other measures.
Snip...(the bold is theirs!)...The conclusion from the results of these analyses is that 2002 data should not be compared with data collected in 2001 or earlier to assess changes over time. Therefore, this report presents data only from the 2002 NSDUH.

You should read the source first, bdeaner, to get the real poop.
Agitprop, pure and simple!

39 posted on 12/24/2003 1:52:34 PM PST by philman_36
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To: Blue Highway; Jeff Chandler; seamole; Eva; qam1; carlo3b; fatima; Fledermaus; AUH2OY2K; ...
You've all replied on this thread so you all deserve to see what is in reply 39!

Basically what is happening is that there is nothing in one study so a new study was started to find what was wanted...a decrease in teen drug use.

40 posted on 12/24/2003 2:02:21 PM PST by philman_36
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To: philman_36
Sure pillman...if it doesn't come from Soros you don't like it.
41 posted on 12/24/2003 2:03:43 PM PST by CWOJackson
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To: bdeaner
Pretty impressive data.
What do you get out of this (http://monitoringthefuture.org/data/03data/fig03_11.pdf (Figure 11: Marijuana: Trends in Annual Use, Risk, Disapproval, and Availability for Eighth, Tenth, and Twelfth Graders ) that is impressive?...
Pages 1--1 from Microsoft PowerPoint - drugprcolor
Page 1
Marijuana: Trends in Annual Use, Risk, Disapproval, and Availability Eighth, Tenth, and Twelfth Graders
0
20
40
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'76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02
Twelfth Grade
Tenth Grade
Eighth Grade

0
20
40
60
80
100

'76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02
0

20
40
60
80
100

'76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02

0
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'76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02

% who used in last twelve months % seeing "great risk" in using regularly

% saying "fairly easy" or "very easy" to get % disapproving of using regularly
Year Year

Year Year

Use Risk
Disapproval Availability

FIGURE 11 1

I can't make heads or tails of it.

42 posted on 12/24/2003 2:12:08 PM PST by philman_36
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To: CWOJackson
Sure pillman...if it doesn't come from Soros you don't like it.
Whatever, Jackson, it came from SAMHSA and you are the one, apparently, that doesn't like it being pointed out.
You don't address it, you merely berate the messenger.

BTW, I could care less about Soros. I'm showing you the government's publically available information.
Why don't you show me Soros' information, if there is any.

43 posted on 12/24/2003 2:16:56 PM PST by philman_36
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Comment #44 Removed by Moderator

Comment #45 Removed by Moderator

To: seamole
Thanks for the info. As has been said already, this is very good news. Well, good news for most people...it appears some aren't that happy about it.
46 posted on 12/24/2003 2:21:34 PM PST by CWOJackson
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To: bdeaner
As my old Pappy use to say...
if some pudknocker ask you to do drugs,
just say no...

and shoot that sumbitch!
47 posted on 12/24/2003 2:28:28 PM PST by sonofatpatcher2 (Love & a .45-- What more could you want, campers? };^)
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To: philman_36
In general, I think the numbers go up, or down, when its convenient for the gov't. Wanna show that you need more funding because the anti-drug ads are working? Have the numbers go down. Wanna show that you need more funding because teenagers have a drug problem? Have the numbers go up. More funding is the bottom line.

However, if less teenagers are using illicit drugs, that is good news indeed. Maybe my connection won't run out so often.

48 posted on 12/24/2003 2:30:12 PM PST by Wolfie
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To: philman_36
Those should be graphs in PDF format. Obviously, you are not pulling up the graphs there. If you were to see the graphs, they are looking at four things:

1) Marijuana Use (% who used in the last 12 months):

there appears to be a gradual decline over the past 5 years

2) Risk of Marijuana use (% seeing "great risk" in using regularly):

Again, gradual decline, this time over the past 10 years

3) Disapproval of Marijuna use (% disapproving of using regularly):

Not much change

4) Availabity of marijuana use (% saying "fairly easy" or "very easy" to get):

Gradually declining over the past 5 years or so.
49 posted on 12/24/2003 2:33:00 PM PST by bdeaner
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To: CWOJackson
Sure pillman...if it doesn't come from Soros you don't like it.
Whatever, Jackson, it came from SAMHSA and you are the one, apparently, that doesn't like it being pointed out.
You don't address it, you merely berate the messenger.

BTW, I could care less about Soros. I'm showing you the government's publically available information.
Here is what a Soros related organization has to say...that way you can judge for yourself.
Fed ‘Monitoring the Future’ Survey Shows Mixed Teen Drug Use Data
Even with the coordination of the Bush administration , the spin accompanying the release of the report was not all positive. Johnston pointed out, in a statement issued alongside the report, “early warning signs of possible trouble ahead,” especially in the area of drug use by eighth-grade students. “The eighth-graders have been the harbingers of change observed later in the upper grades,” wrote Johnston. “[T]he fact that they are no longer showing declines in their use of a number of drugs could mean that the declines now being observed in the upper grades also will come to an end soon.” Johnston’s thoughts, coupled with comments Walters made in a CNN interview on Sunday that “the trends as [the MTF has] predicted – good news and bad news – in the past have been borne out,” indicates that researchers and the Bush administration share the belief that short-term changes in teen drug use cannot be used to show larger trends.

50 posted on 12/24/2003 2:36:39 PM PST by philman_36
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