Posted on 12/24/2003 10:10:52 AM PST by torstars
LONDON - Fears about a suspected U.S. case of mad cow disease spread quickly abroad Wednesday, with 10 countries blocking the import of American beef after a cow in Washington state tested positive for the illness.
Japan, the world's top importer of U.S. beef in terms of value, imposed an indefinite ban and planned to recall certain meat products already on the market, while South Korea halted customs inspections of American beef and suspended sales for meat already on supermarket shelves.
Mexico, Russia, Brazil, Australia, Taiwan, Singapore, Thailand and Malaysia also banned the imports, as did the Chinese territory of Hong Kong.
Mexico, which imports the largest quantity of American beef - 384,900 tons, also banned the import of live cattle from the United States. The United States shipped 106,000 head of cattle to Mexico last year.
(Excerpt) Read more at phillyburbs.com ...
Oh well, at least the beef people got to ride the Atkin's profit train for a while.
I'm guessing the roast beef at the deli in Safeway won't be $9.99 a lb. much longer.
Let me know if you wish to be added or removed from this list.
I don't get offended if you want to be removed.
No, and I still don't understand why the price is that high? Is it really mostly an Atkins driven demand?
I think there is some gouging going on, and in a way it serves those that were gouging right. However I realize that a lot more people will be hurt than just the gougers.
My guess is that Canada will be among the last to impose a US ban, because they want the US ban of their beef lifted.
After the confirmation, the level of US beef exported (which is about 10% of beef produced in the US) will approach zero.
I think that anyone with vCJD would trade for Hepatitis A in a heart beat.
The apparent trend toward preference of high-pro, low-carb diets has certainly created a strong underpinning of demand, but (if USDA is to be trusted -- usually a dubious proposition) US beef consumption is y/y up just a relatively modest amount. The relative supply deficit is what fuelled the $28/$86 cwt. rise in futures/dressed. This was exacerbated as long-term supply agreements from the packers to the national and regional grocery chains began to expire.
On another beef thread from 3 weeks or so ago, I said that, due to the full resumption of Canadian imports AND the continued Japanese ban on Canadian beef and product, the US consumer would see a 25% reduction in price by about April. Given the new development (please note that it doesn't really matter about the disposition of the infected cow -- the mkt reacts to perception, principally), we should see prices at retail down fully 25% by the end of January.
Phil Stanley, who for my money is THE best LC analyst at CME, stated early this a.m. that front-month cattle would drop $14/cwt on a lock-limit basis, i.e. w/o ANY trading. Packers will be backing off the cash absolutely just as fast as they can, consistent with keeping operations moving. Cash mkt is going to collapse for a week or two, followed by retail, esp. on high-end cuts.
Look for retail beef features beginning about 3rd week in Jan, and earlier if another BSE incident is reported. Bad luck for (most of) the cattle industry, to be sure, but in the meantime, buon appetito!
Beef steers and the rocketed prices of beef at the producer levels have caused all the dairy calfs to be raised as fat steers. Everyone and his brother has just jumped into the beefer business because record prices are to be reaped right now. Two semi loads of prime animals will make you rich right now.
This has caused hay prices which were already pressured to soar from $70 per ton to $200 per ton. By April I expected $300 per ton.
I hope this scare slows down the dynamics.
The FDA did immunohistochemistry (at testing facility in Ames, IA) with results on Dec 22, followed by more rapid tests with results on Dec 23. Then they held a news conference to announce presumptive positives.
The tests in England are only for confirmatory purposes. The results are VERY clear.
Interstate Meat in OR has a website that indicates they serve customers in Northern California, Washington, Oregon, and Idaho.
This is not true for the whole country, in the east and southeast, farmers have a bunker crop of hay, you can't give the stuff away.
I've had to supplement soy meal and distillers grains to keep protein up. My needs are for 280 tons of hay per season. Last year I bought hay for $45 per ton. The hay I bale is good quality alfalfa and I need to use it for lambing time and for ewes carrying triplets. Unfortunately I only yielded about 115 tons last year.
When the idiots panic about Mad Cow Disease, we would be able to purchase Beef at a low price!
Keep a close eye on meat prices and buy as much as possible, if the prices are going down rapidly.
Wise wife, and that is why I keep her around. Hehe.
Consumers (and newspaper reporters) still have a steep learning curve. They are still swallowing nonsense about the removal of spinal tissue (how do they think this is done)?
Guess what cut of meat runs alongside the spinal chord? The quote below has an important clue:
"At the Kinzie Chop House in Chicago, where the most popular steak is filet mignon, general manager Stephen Fish said he believed that people understand that the meat they eat is safe."
I know, and we will be looking forward to purchasing many pounds of fillet mignon from along the spinal chord.
Mmmmmm Good!
BSE, vCJD, CWD, and scrapie are all caused by prions, which are not viruses. Prions are mis-folded proteins which are very resistant to inactivation by autoclaving and radiation.
vCJD can almost certainly be transmitted by blood transfusion of blood collected years before symptoms develop in donor or recipient.
Given the above, it is hard to imagine why blood in muscle cuts from BSE infected cattle would not be capable of transmitting BSE or vCJD.
Two questions, though: 1) If the per person consumption of beef rose only a relatively modest amount, could that be caused by Fadkins dieters increasing consumption, while the rest of us cut back a bit, reacting to higher prices? I know Mrs. Hunter112 has hit the Internet looking for a lot more chicken and pork recipes. 2) Will there be more sudden, and deeper price drops closer to the "epicenter" of the mad cow scare? I'm hoping liberal weenies in nearby Olympia will leave beef to be deeply discounted when I hit Safeway, I'm getting tired of both the white meat, and the other white meat!
Prions are misshapened proteins which recruit normal proteins via physical contact. Thus the aberrant proteins build up and cause the associated neurological defects which eventually become fatal.
Prions are quite nasty and difficult to destroy, which is why vCJD, BSE, CWD, and scrapie are causes for concern.
Okay, didn't we recently receive some GREEN ONIONS from Mexico that killed several people here in the USA? We should ban all Mexican produce. Screw them!!!!
There's no question at all that nationwide retail beef prices will drop 20-25-30% in 5-6 weeks, none. In WHICH mkts the decline will hit quickest seems to me (no positive knowledge here) to be a function of the 6-week grocer supply curve.
At the moment, I haven't a clue on that. Equivalently, I'm NOT aware that the packer-grocer agreements that have expired over the past 45 days have been renewed.
In plain English, the ball is up in the air, and I don't know which side of the mkt is taller. Here's just one thought: the ''fair mkt price'' of Feb LC is 73.20, based on the CME option board price discount. The Feb LC settled Wednesday at 89.17 (both prices quoted as cents/lb.), locked down the limit. There will be 2, at least, more lock limit moves IMNNHO ( btw, that term means that the mkt DOES NOT trade after the offer price declines by the daily limit amount, now 1.50 cents/lb, which will expand Monday), the cash mkt is collapsing
If I were you, I'd sell exactly ONE Feb LC 91.00 call for what you can get for it tomorrow morning. Take whatever the bid price is, anything 40 pts or better. You'll laugh, or be surprised, or something...and in any case you've no reason to believe me... but your odds of profiting are very close to THREE std devs, roughly 98.89%.
Anything CAN happen, certainly, but it is almost unimaginable that the suggested trade will not profit you. Once a mkt becomes event-driven, as here and now with a BSE incident in the US in the immediate case, and considering the effects upon the LC mkt traded on CME -- putting it crudely -- dat boat doan turn too quick.
Any other matter notwithstanding, may I wish you the VERY best of the New Year!
Thanks kindly for your best wishes, I hope the same for you and your family!
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