Posted on 12/24/2003 8:00:21 PM PST by Shermy
American policymakers should now proceed on the long-term assumption that a European superstate, with a common foreign and military policy, is not going to emerge. The collapse of the constitution conference and talk of a "two-tier" EU means unity has been abandoned. The joint decision of the French and German governments to destroy the stability pact that underpins the common currency must, in the end, mean the destruction of the euro as well. Smaller countries, such as Portugal and the Netherlands, have endured considerable economic pain in order to hold to the rules or have been massively fined for minute infractions.
Now the two biggest EU powers have engaged in a joint conspiracy to not only break the rules but also insist that in their cases the stability pact does not apply. At a stroke this kills the egalitarian basis on which the EU is supposedly founded. It echoes George Orwell's sinister tale Animal Farm about the evil pigs: "All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others." France and Germany have emerged as the big bullies, the lawless thugs that terrorize the European street--as, of course, they have done in the past. France, under Louis XIV and Napoleon, and Germany, under Bismarck, the Kaiser and Hitler, were guilty of greedy wars of aggression, causing the smaller countries of Europe repeated suffering. Now, at the bidding of the Paris-Berlin axis, these countries are to suffer yet again.
Corrupted by Lawless Paris
But there are differences. France is undoubtedly the senior partner in this fraud. President Jacques Chirac has long regarded France as being above the EU's rules and has authorized blatant defiance of them on a score of occasions. Germany, on the other hand, being a law-abiding nation except when under control of a monster, has been punctilious in keeping the rules up to now.
Unfortunately for the French, Germany, now that it has been unleashed from moral restraints, is unlikely to end its defiance with the stability pact. There is rising resentment among Germans that their country is by far the largest net provider of EU funds, while France, though rich, is one of the largest recipients, through the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), the most generally hated institution in the union.
The Germans are feeling the pain of a stagnant economy, an overvalued euro, actual recession in many sectors and a dramatic collapse in East German property values. A number of German banks are technically insolvent, and it's becoming increasingly difficult to borrow the money necessary to keep German industry up to date. Given these circumstances, Germany's funding of the EU makes no sense to the German taxpayers or to the politicians who represent them. Now that Germany has blatantly broken the rules over the stability pact, what is to prevent it from reneging on EU payments? Nothing.
Coming Unstuck
If Germany cuts off its funds, various EU doles that hold the union together--not least of which is the CAP--will become bankrupt. The CAP was France's original economic reason for creating the EU. Without it, the smoldering rage of French farmers may well burst through the thin crust of France's pseudodemocracy, encouraging other disaffected groups (which are legion) to take to the streets, roads and harbors--possibly to be joined by France's Muslims, who now constitute close to 10% of the population and are huddled in poverty in slums on the edges of France's cities.
I've always maintained that the moment France finds theEU to be no longer of use, it will break it up. A German revolt against the payments system could provide that moment. Hostility to the EU is rising in France anyway, to the point where no referendum on the proposed EU constitution can be held there for fear it would be voted down heavily.
U.S. policymakers' aims should be to forge close links with in-dividual countries that have strong common interests with America in wide areas of policy. Such nations include Britain, obviously (though not Ireland, which is sure to do the opposite of anything Britain does), Spain and Italy. The latter two are deeply resentful of French-German behavior and are anxious to have a powerful friend outside the EU to redress the internal balance of power.
There are other states the U.S. should cultivate in this new situation. Poland is still afraid of both Germany and Russia and regards the U.S. as an essential ally in times of trouble. Then there are Denmark, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Austria--all of which have good reason to fear Franco-German bullying and are eager for a close friendship with the world's policeman. And if, as I predict, a split opens between France and Germany, astute U.S. policy could persuade Germany to become again, as it was in the days of Konrad Adenauer and Willy Brandt, a reliable American ally. That would complete the isolation of France and severely inhibit its ability to sabotage America's war on terrorism.
In the meantime, the U.S. should keep a tight grip on NATO (news - web sites)'s plans and strategies, ensuring that no sensitive information passes into channels to which the French military has access. The U.S. should also increase its intelligence efforts in Paris and Berlin.
Paul Johnson, eminent British historian and author, Lee Kuan Yew, senior minister of Singapore, and Ernesto Zedillo, Yale Center for the Study of Globalization, former president of Mexico, in addition to Forbes Chairman Caspar W. Weinberger, rotate in writing this column. To see past Current Events columns, visit our Web site at http://www.forbes.com/currentevents.
Anybody can predict it. You don't have to be prescient; just take a peek at history.
Paul Johnson is a famous author, and I do share his feelings toward France, but Willy Brandt just cannot be attached to Konrad Adenauer by the means of simple "and".
Politically, the two were whole universe apart.
Johnson should remember the Ostpolitik of Brandt The Marxist (and the President of the Socialist International!), as well as his role of the founding father of so called 'third worldism'. The latter trend appeared when, by the words of Roger Scruton, "the toiling proletarian of the European city gave way to the sun-drenched tribesman of the African bush as the preferred recipient of left-wing condescension".
Some quotes from Roger Scruton's brilliant work Thinkers of The New Left:
Willy Brandt did more than any other post-war politician to weaken the strategic position of Western Europe... The Brandt Report is perhaps the most turgid and ill-considered document ever to have achieved the status of a radical manifesto. Nevertheless, its authority is now unquestioned in radical circles...
(The Brandt Report) presents the important facts upon which 'third worldism' is founded...(unquote)
I say, down with Willy Brandt, as well as with the French Muslims as allies! With such allies one doesn't need no enemies...
Two very important points about the overvalued Euro are sort of hidden in this article:
1. American policymakers should now proceed on the long-term assumption that a European superstate, with a common foreign and military policy, is not going to emerge. The collapse of the constitution conference and talk of a "two-tier" EU means unity has been abandoned. The joint decision of the French and German governments to destroy the stability pact that underpins the common currency must, in the end, mean the destruction of the euro as well.
The Germans are feeling the pain of a stagnant economy, an overvalued euro, actual recession in many sectors and a dramatic collapse in East German property values. A number of German banks are technically insolvent, and it's becoming increasingly difficult to borrow the money necessary to keep German industry up to date. Given these circumstances, Germany's funding of the EU makes no sense to the German taxpayers or to the politicians who represent them. Now that Germany has blatantly broken the rules over the stability pact, what is to prevent it from reneging on EU payments? Nothing.
2. The Euro is way over valued with the socialist countries like France And Germany playing games with what is supposedly allowed re debt. Soros is probably still propping/pumping it up.
That will bring down the Euro house of shaky cards will be the upcoming regime change in Iran. Soros got the Murdering Mullahs to drop the dollar and the payment medium for its oil. Iran will revert to the $ within thirty days after a regime change happens in Iran.
Then the Euro will collapse.
I would guess the majority of former Warsaw Pact nations would love the chance. ;^)
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.