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The Rising Sea Dragon in Asia
JEFFHEAD.COM ^ | January 6, 2004 | Jeff Head

Posted on 01/06/2004 9:05:14 AM PST by Jeff Head

THE RISING SEA DRAGON IN ASIA
By Jeff Head, January 2004

In the 1990's the Poeple's Republic of China embarked on an unprecedented military buildup to modernize their aremd forces, increase their qualitative functioning and put them in a position to be able to better carry out the geo-olitical dictates of the Red Chinese government. This necessarily includes being able to develop themselves to a point that they could credibly confront the other armed forces in the region who may stand in the way of those geo-political directives, in particularly the United States.

The buildup has covered the spectrum of military forces, from strategic rocket forces (ICBM's), tactical rocket forces (SRBM's), ground forces, air forces and naval forces. It is being accomplished with monies that would otherwise have bankrupted the earlier marxist and maoist market economies, and while maintianing their communistic/marxistis political heiarchy. Capitalizing on the low cost labor force that they have opened up to the western world, the Red Chinese are obtaining the influx of capital necessary to maintian their military buildup. Thye are also making adept application of Sun Tsu philosophy (where makes clear that all warfare is deception) to amass staggering western trade defficits (meaning the west is on the deficit end) which are reaping them the tremendous capital and technological capabilities to continue and to achieve their military goals.

In conjucntion with the capital gains, through research and development, blackmail, importation of dual use technologies, bribery and out and out espionage, the Red Chinese have also markedly increased their technological and qualitative capabilities many fold over the last several years. This has allowed them to rise from a point in the early to mid 1990's where they were 25-30 years behind US technology, to a point today (less than fifteen years later) where their newer systems are challenging American capabilities in some areas, and posing a credible threat in others.

While not an exhaustive study, the focus of this article is to examine and present the recent developments in the Chinese Navy (PLAN) which are putting them into a position to credibly challenge the United States Navy in the region.

The Chinese Navy has historically been without any sea-based naval air component. Like the Soviets before them, they have historically relied heavily on land based naval strike aircraft to attack and defeat opposing at-sea naval forces in the region. They have had no aircraft carriers. However, like the Soviets before them, the Chinese have come to see the desirability and necessity of developing sea-based naval air forces if they plan to project power very far from their own shores. In recognition of this, over the last ten years, they have purchased and studied at least three different carrier designs. These ships have been acquired through various strategmns including purchasing them for scrap and then bringing them to Chinese naval yards for study and purchasing them for supposed economic reasons, like making a floating casino out of a former Russian carrier, and then again bringing them to China for study. The two carriers bought for scrap are not suitable for refitting and making operational, but they would have provided Chinese shipbuilders and designers with invaluable knowledge so they can augment their own future naval plans.

The latest carrier obtained in this fashiopn is the most troubling. It is the Russian carrier, the Varyag. The Varyag is.a relatively modern design and could be made into something that is very capable. It was towed to the Dalian Chinese naval yards where it is currently being studied for anything but a floating Casino. Given the Chinese capital capabilities, it could easily be refitted and made sea worthy (it was towed at sea from the Black Sea to China) or it could provide the technical basis for a wholly indigenous Chinese carrier.


The Vayrag Entering Chinese waters


The Vayrag birtrhed at Chinese naval shipyards

The Vayrag is not something to be taken lightly. Fully equiped it would approach a 65,000 ton displacement and embark 40-50 modern jet fighter and attack aircraft. As such, it would be the equal (it is in fact a newer design) to the Russian Kuznetzov and would be the largest carrier in the world outside of America's super-carriers. Operating within range of ground air support and with the appropriate escort vessels, it would pose a credable threat in the China Sea and particularly in the Formosa Straits. The Chinese have been purchasing, and are now license building, SU-27 fighter bombers in China which could be used on the Vayrag and their new J-10 aircraft might also be suitably modified for carrier operations. If the Chinese were to complete this carrier and then augment it with designs of their own to the point where they were producing several of them, the balance of power in the region would shift dramitically.


Red Chinese produced SU-27 Aircraft (J11)


The Red Chinese J-10

But do the Chinese intend to do this?

That question can be answered by determining if the Chinese are developing and fielding the necessary escort and support vessels and infrastructure to protect and augment any carrier they develop.

The answer to that questions is an umittigated, yes!

The Chinese have embarked on an ambitious and unprecedented development and ship building program of modern destroyers and frigates that would allow for the creation of powerful carrier battle groups similar to those fielded by the U.S. Navy once they produce a carrier. These include multi-role combat vessels, area air-defense vessels (similar to American Aegis vessels) and support vessels. They have also purchased very capable, modern large surface combatants from the Russians.

The Sovermenny class destroyers were produced by the Soviets in the late 1980's to specifcally threaten U.S. carriers. The Chinese have purchased four of these vessels and refitted and renamed them the Hangzhou class. The Russians modernized the design throughout the 1990's before their sale to the Chinese and they are an example of the type of equipment the Chinese are purchasing with their new found wealth and technology (mostly ammassed from trade with the United States and other western countries). These ships are very capable, mulit-purpose guided missile destroyer and carry the Sunburn and Yahkont surface to surface missiles which were specifically designed by the Russians to attack U.S. super-carriers and defeat the Aegis air defense system. These vessels aslo have a credible medium-ranged anti-air defense system suitable for their own protection, or close in protection of other vessels.


A former Sovremmenny class now saling as the PLAN Hangzhou

To augment the multi-role capabilities of the Hangzhou class, the Chinese have done a very thorough job of development themselves, producing their own modern designs. This started in the 1990's with modernization of the numerous, but older, Luda class of destroyers. It then proceeded to the development of the newer Luhu class desroyers in the mid-1990's and the evolution of that class into the newer and more capable Luhai class by the late 1990's. It is now finally producing their new Typer 52B, Guangzhou class of vessels. With a displacemnt approaching 7,000+ tons and modern anti-surface, anti-air and anti-submarine weapons systems and using proven Russian Top Dome and other acquisition and targeting sensors, this design represents a modern Chinese version of the Russian Svremmenny and indicates the Chinese commitment to being self-sufficient in their naval development and power projection capabilities. This design is a very capable design and cannot be taken lightly by U.S. war planners. Currently the Chinese have launched two of these newer vessels and are projected to build up to eight of them.


The new PLAN 168 Guanghou destroyer


The second Guanghou destroyer being built

In addition, the Chinese are developing a new, stealthy Type 054 class frigate that will be capable in the anti-air, anti-surface and anti-submarine roles. Similar to the role of the earlier U.S. Perry class frigates, but much newer, more stealthy and an apparent attempt to beat the Americans to the Litoral Combat Ship role, these new frigates are already being built and launched in Chinese shipyards.


The new Type 54 PLAN Frigate

In order to provide the area air coverage necessary to protect a carrier in the modern war-at-sea environment, the Chinese have also embarked on the very ambitious task of developing, building, and launching modern area air-defense destroyers. These ships are similar in design and function to the American AEGIS Burke destroyers and are used to protect large task forces, particularly carrier battle groups from mass air assault by aircraft or missiles.

Captializing on joint exercises and partnership programs with the United States Navy in the 1990's. where Red Chinese officers were actually allowed onboard American Aegis ships to observe their operations, and relying on technology that has been pilfered through dual technology methods, espionage and the rising capabilities of Chinese researchers themselves (who are now very well funded), the Chinese are now building a new class of destroyers, the Type 52C, Lanzhou guided missile destroyers. These vessels will employ Phased Array radar acquisition and targeting systems similar to Aegis and their own long-range, vertical launch missiles. These vessels are meant to be the equivalent of the U.S. Navy's Arleigh Burk class destroyers. Two are currently being built simultaneously and it is expected that the Chinese will build at least two more, while developing an even larger and more capable class of vessels which may be intended to rival the vaunted American Ticonderoga class Aegis cruisers.


Two new Type 52C, Lanzhou AEGIS like destroyers under construction

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TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Culture/Society; Editorial; Foreign Affairs; Free Republic; Government; News/Current Events; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: armsbuildup; asia; authorjeffhead; china; chinesemilitary; jeffhead; miltech; plan; powerprojection; redchinathreat; usnavy; westernpacific
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To: knighthawk; Dubya; sauropod; Alamo-Girl
Thank you each for the BUMPs and reading the article!
41 posted on 01/06/2004 12:36:48 PM PST by Jeff Head
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To: Jeff Head
Not to mention each of the 4 Sovremenny destroyers are equipped with 8-SS-N-22 Sunburn ramjet anti-ship missiles (nuclear capable). Methinks the Russians are still deadly enemies along with the PRC.
42 posted on 01/06/2004 12:37:52 PM PST by cincysux
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To: cyn
You're both very welcome.
43 posted on 01/06/2004 12:38:52 PM PST by Jeff Head
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To: cyn; Ff--150
You're both very welcome.
44 posted on 01/06/2004 12:39:03 PM PST by Jeff Head
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To: 4ConservativeJustices
Right now the ability to project naval power in that region of the world and control sea lanes (vital to us and our allies for the unimpeded flow of material and oil) is completely skewed in our favor.n That's a good thing.

A potential agressor like Red China developing similar capability moves the balance away from that.

45 posted on 01/06/2004 12:41:40 PM PST by Jeff Head
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To: 4ConservativeJustices
Right now the ability to project naval power in that region of the world and control sea lanes (vital to us and our allies for the unimpeded flow of material and oil) is completely skewed in our favor. That's a good thing.

A potential agressor like Red China developing similar capability moves the balance away from that.

46 posted on 01/06/2004 12:43:01 PM PST by Jeff Head
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To: Jeff Head
The main thing they have to worry about, naval-wise, is that our Los Angeles class vessels are still light years ahead of their ASW. Don't even get into the Seawolf class.

In 1981, when the Ohio conducted its first sea tests vs. our own ASW, it was so quiet our own ASW couldn't find it. We knew then that the Soviets had no chance of ever detecting these boats. It was one main reason we did not press for the longer-range Trident II missile . . . the extra range simply wasn't needed.

47 posted on 01/06/2004 12:46:00 PM PST by LS (CNN is the Amtrack of news.)
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To: Jeff Head
Is it possible that the PRC is getting ready to fight an enemy that will not exist when their preparations are complete?

By that, I mean the USN may have evolved substantially by the time the PLAN is ready to fight the current USN. It may be a situation sort of like preparing to fight a war with battleships just as the carrier and the submarine become the dominant forces at sea. I am not certain what the "future war" concepts of the USN embrace, so it would be interesting to see a post on it.

On the other hand SSN-19 "Sunburns" hurt no matter how advanced your surface forces get...
48 posted on 01/06/2004 12:52:14 PM PST by Little Ray (When in trouble, when in doubt, run in circles, scream and shout!)
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To: John H K
Actually the Varyag was 60-70% complete when construction was halted and the Russians removed a substantial number of systems that had already been installed.

As to its sea-worthiness, it was towed half way around the world through some major gales and arrived safely.

It would be far cheaper to take such a vessel, refit and complete it to something akin to its original intent, particularly if the Russians are willing to help...than to design and build a new one from scratch. The Varyag is a proven design that is working for the Russians (the Kusnetszov) and where the Russians have more limited funds for maintenance and training, the Chinese would be in a position to pour more into it I believe. My guess is, given the history of dealing with the Chinese, the Russians would be willing to deal for hard currency.

The Russians are doing just this with the Indians, with another, older carrier, the Admiral Gorshkov, which was a predecessor to the Kuznetzov and Varyag,and that sat around a lot longer than the Varyag.

Now, as to whether this is what the Chinese actually want to do or not is yet to be seen and is anyone's guess. IMHO, they certainly are taking a good look at it though.

49 posted on 01/06/2004 12:55:27 PM PST by Jeff Head
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To: cincysux
They ceetainly don't mind selling some of their best surviving stuff to our greatest potential agressor.
50 posted on 01/06/2004 12:56:32 PM PST by Jeff Head
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To: Little Ray
Well, we are looking at Litoral Combat ships, Sea-basing and a number of other interesting avenues in the near to mid-term.

I believe the PLAN is taking as much of that into account as possible.

As I stated earlier, short of bankrupting us, they will not be able to keep pace with us tit for tat in conventional or future ships and missiles IMHO, and they will have to find some asymetrical way of leveling the filed, particularly as regards our carriers.

The carriers trump them right now, but you can bet they are working on it.

51 posted on 01/06/2004 12:59:42 PM PST by Jeff Head
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To: LS
The Chinese are working on the submarine issue as well. They recently launched one of their new SSN's which apparently have gotten them up to the Victor III level or so.

Not a match for our boats, particularly not the Improved LA class, the SeaWolf or the Virginia...but in the confined spaces of the South China Sea and the Formosa Straits in particular, still a threat that cannot be written off.

The Chinese are going to have to still come up with something significant to make any hegonomy plans stick...and that means something asymetrical to couple with their advances IMHO.

52 posted on 01/06/2004 1:03:22 PM PST by Jeff Head
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To: LS
Oh...I somehow missed this. Thanks a lot!

I hope you enjoy it and believe that if you liked I-III that you will certainly enjoy and have fun with Volume IV.

Please let me know what you think when you are finished.

53 posted on 01/06/2004 1:05:52 PM PST by Jeff Head
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To: Jeff Head
BTT for a great reference article.
54 posted on 01/06/2004 1:15:40 PM PST by harpseal (Stay well - Stay safe - Stay armed - Yorktown)
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To: harpseal
Thanks my friend. The PLAN is feverishly pumping out new, modern combatant classes. As you know, they are not doing this just because. Best Fregards.
55 posted on 01/06/2004 1:27:51 PM PST by Jeff Head
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To: Jeff Head
SHALOM!

Hi...Jeff,

Happy New Years Blessings to You and Your Household.

And Your post # 25 on this very interesting thread is as Always...100% Correct!

The Book of Revelation talks a great deal about the Great DRAGON (This IS CHINA, Not the long gone reptile/animal).

The Chinese are smart but they still do Not have the Tech capacity to overcome the USA...at least Not yet.

The one thing that they Do have is "man power"...they Out Number US many times Over.

Certainly any kind of Act of War perpetrated by the Chinese on the USA would be Very Messy indeed and Our retaliatory response will be Massive and NASTY.

56 posted on 01/06/2004 1:32:47 PM PST by Simcha7 ((The Plumb - Line has been Drawn, T'shuvah/Return for The Kingdom of HaShem is at hand!))
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To: Simcha7
The italics are not my quote...they come from DakotaGator in post number 14.

I was agreeing with him in my post.

The Chinese understand asymetrical warfare. Their entire Sun Tsu military philospohy is based on it.

All warfare is deception.

They know they are not conventionally capable at this time, but they are certainly working towards "finding a way". At some point they will think they have and in their own time act. I pray we are prepared and vigilant and believe we shall prevail just the same.

But, it would be better to do with them as Reagan did with the Soviets now, than wait for them to make the move...particularly when they are funding most of this with our own monies.

57 posted on 01/06/2004 1:46:36 PM PST by Jeff Head
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To: vanmorrison
I believe that the Japanese have remained relatively disarmed and have agreed to never go offensive or "pre-emptive" like the U.S. Something about losing the last war and all that. Do you think they should be let out of that agreement?
58 posted on 01/06/2004 3:04:39 PM PST by Melinator (Big Badda Boom)
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To: Jeff Head
eye appointment?
59 posted on 01/06/2004 3:04:45 PM PST by cyn (http://www.terrisfight.org)
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To: Jeff Head
Your welcome Jeff my friend. Keep em coming.
60 posted on 01/06/2004 6:19:20 PM PST by Dubya (Jesus saith unto him, I am the way, the truth, and the life: no man cometh unto the Father,but by me)
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