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To: justlurking
I said that the jackpots had a 100% chance of being given away. You replied,

"Not quite. For it to be 100%, every possible combination of numbers would have to be purchased by one or more players. For the drawing in question, 1,130,918 tickets won various amounts of money for matching the "mega-ball". Since there are 52 balls, a uniform distribution of mega-ball picks would mean about 58.8 million tickets were sold."

No, you miss the point. I didn't say that every prize would be won, nor did I say the the jackpot would be won on every draw. If there is no jackpot winner, the prize rolls over to subsequent draws UNTIL there IS a winner. Thus, that money will ALWAYS be won - eventually. Thus, the 100% certainty that someone WILL win THAT jackpot. No matter how many draws it takes.

Michael

184 posted on 01/09/2004 7:39:10 AM PST by Wright is right! (Never get excited about ANYTHING by the way it looks from behind.)
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To: Wright is right!
No, you miss the point.

No, I didn't miss the point. I just misinterpreted what you said. You are correct that the jackpot will eventually be won. I didn't realize you were referring to multiple drawings.

However, even over multiple drawings, the chance someone will win is actually still less than 100%. The probability gets smaller and smaller as more drawings occur (and a progressively larger number of tickets are purchased each time). And, it eventually gets so close to 100% that it is effectively certain.

I'd have to go back to my statistics textbook to find the actual name of the distribution that describes the phenomena.

186 posted on 01/09/2004 12:14:57 PM PST by justlurking
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